There's something to that. It was a moment in history, a convergence of conflicts and tensions. Off hand, I can identify four, possibly five of the early strains of the Jihad that really had relatively little to do with what happened one winter day on Tharkad - the FS-Taurian conflict, the Word/Dragoon showdown, the FWL's political troubles (albeit perhaps not to the same scale), and the Black Dragons, with the possible entry of the Case White attack. The losses contributed to that lack of firemen I mentioned above and the DC and CC both had their own losses from other conflicts to deal with.
Honestly, the only people who went into the Jihad with a largely intact military were the FWL but the political mess and the penetration by the Word into their fleet neutralized a lot of that advantage.