What would you have done if you were...?

[Nov. Col.]

I'm not sure if this has been covered, but I know there are similar topics to it but not exactly:

What would you have done if you were A. Kerensky after the end of the liberation?

Reform a mini-hegemony?

Decapitate the House Lords?

Exodus to a closer area?

I've always been curious since almost everyone agrees the canon plan was a bit imperfect.

[MadCapellan]

Probably done my job and guard the Hegemony, negotiate a united Star League without any single Lord, and built up a power base over Terra.

[Fallen_Raven]

Beyond trying to protect the Hegemony and stabalize the Star League after such a long war, I would probably try to form closer bonds with the Periphery. If nothing else, they have just as much reason to distrust the Great Houses as you do, so you have something to focus the various houses on besides taking chunks out of you.

[Stormfury]

The canon plan was the best the House Lords would allow Kerensky to do.

The options are essentially:

-Start another war the Hegemony can ill afford, which it will definitely lose, and which will leave the Houses in possession of much more powerful material, leading to much more destructive Succession Wars.
-Forestall conflict for as long as possible, allowing the Hegemony to be devoured piecemeal and the SLDF's assets divided, leading to more destructive Succession Wars.
-Recognise the situation is irretrievable earlier and depart sooner.
-Do what Kerensky did and leave when the situation becomes untenable and the choice is either exile or open and bloody war, hoping to limit the destructive potential it will have.

It is only with the benefit of perfect foresight that Kerensky could even hope to contain the ambitions of the House Lords. Being human, and having the attendant limitations, means that doing so otherwise is as close to impossible that it may as well be described as such.

[Stormlion1]

Secured Terra and pulled the troops in near Terra for rest and refit. Put the factorys and shipyards back into workable status and begin repairs and restocking of mechs, vehichles and ammunition and start recruitment to bring the SLDF back up to snuff. Then I'd close the Terran Hegamony's borders for a period of 3 months including communications, as a safeguard to catch missing ex-RWR war criminals, at least thats what I'd tell the public and the House Lords. If they try to communicate with me i'd ignore them or give them the run around, it should be enough to make them wonder what I was up to and leary enough to keep their distance. Then I'd find a Cameron, any Cameron no matter how distantly related and plop his rear down into the Star League throne and at the three month mark I'd present the House Lords with a Fait Accompli, a restored SLDF and Cameron line. And I wouldn't care if the Cameron was a by-blow of a distant Cameron cousin, as long as she or he had the DNA. As soon as thats was done I'd announce a Martial Olympiad and show everyone what a smaller but veteran SLDF can do. This is when I'd let the people meet Andery and Nicholas as well as I debut them as Regiment commanders.

[Kotetsu]

This does beg a question: How old was Nicholas at the time of the Exodus?

Because if one of those rumors about Jennifer Winston was true...

Rumor being that she was a heir of the Cameron line.

[Stormfury]

The presence of a Cameron heir changes nothing; unless there was ironclad proof that they were a Cameron and the designated heir selected by the last First Lord, producing them would have been less than a waste of time. Producing someone who may or may not be a Cameron and who was below the age of majority would just land everyone back in square one, this time with the House Lords stripping Kerensky of all power immediately and competing amongst themselves to assume the role formerly played by Stefan Amaris.

[Railan Sradac]

Any option apart from the one he chose would not have created the Clans; thus, his choice was the most optimal.  O:-)

[Atlas3060]

Worked with Jerome Blake to help secure some peace for the Hegemony. Operation Silver Shield will go into effect, try to secure any and all Hegemony worlds possible.
Tell every House Lord that the Hegemony is still alive, remains neutral in any wars, and will be defended by its transitional leader: me.
Assign nobles loyal to me as provincial guardians who rule specific sections of the Hegemony.
Blake's people begin to work on the HPG networks, making them serve the Inner Sphere better.
People within the SLDF that want to return home can, but they leave the equipment. Anyone trying to steal the equipment suffers "accidents".
Begin peace efforts with the Periphery while secretly supplying them technology comparable to the House tech, but not Royals, in exchange for them harrassing the hell out of the Houses.

With my Provincial Guardians assistance, I try to find the best and brightest soldiers of all fields (Mechs/Infantry/Aero/Vehicle).
These soldiers will form the core of a new special forces unit for each province.

Rename the Hegemony as the Terran Republic. With Blake's people working the commerce and communications while my two children begin their rising star status as warriors we try to hold back the night.

So yes Alex Kerensky becomes a modified Devlin Stone.  O0

[Orion]

I would have had Kerensky head home and shore up the Terran Hegemony as long as possible.  Forget having a Star Lord, just concentrate on the Hegemony.  Once the House Lords start attacking, as they surely would, the Star League forces are doomed.  The 1st SW is a little longer, a little more bloody, and has a different name, but the end result is the same, with 5 houses now ruling the inner sphere.  As things go bad in the war, a few SL units defect to the houses. At the surrender, some SL units turn mercenary and carry on the good fight, while the rest get incorporated into the house military forces.  No silly exodus, and by 2900 the history is the same.

I would still have the clans, but they'd be in a completely separate setting. Outside of alternate universe fanon, there would be no possibility of it ever interacting with the primary one.  And if we just had to have a big war about 3049, Comstar will do just fine.

[snewsom2997]

Use the creation of Comstar as a ruse, pretend like I am going on the exodus, pack up all the stuff put it on ships, and then jump through uninhabited systems until back at Earth, then slowly reconquer the TH under the ruse of Comstar and rebuilding the damage of the Amaris Coup. While the Kuritas would have had no qualms about making a play for a former Hegemony world, I think that not all five houses would have tried to take planets if those planets were defended by a division of Vet SL troops, with support.
This would have maybe given the SL time for all the ships in the NewGrange Yardships to be repaired several dozen, and I think it would have been a brake on the technological backslide of the SW's, Toyama would not have been in control of ROM, and went on Head hunting missions against scientists. The power Vacuum is what caused the SW, KErensky leaving is what caused that power vacuum.

[TS_Hawk]

nuked everybody from orbit including Comstar it would have been the only way to be sure that there would be no more Stephen Amaris or his decendants remaining. 

[Marwynn]

Kerensky had 3-4 years before he was removed from his position right?

That's enough to send home almost every non Hegemony citizen to their respective states and begin a massive rebuilding and recruitment campaign.

The Rim Worlds Republic is still a conquered nation at this point. I'd make it a Star League protectorate state.

Then I'd round up the Public Relations and Marketing peeps from around the Hegemony and have them initiate a campaign to win public opinion. Thrust up some Star League support here and there throughout the Inner Sphere. That'll make the House Lords realize any war they fight might be an unpopular one (save perhaps in the Combine).

Afterwards, I'd start dealing with the House Lords one by one. I'll trade tech for time.

Honestly, it'll take about 5-10 years to do all of this properly. By cementing his influence Aleksandr could have bought some time to strengthen the Hegemony's position. He could even deliberately give say the Lyrans or the Suns some advanced combat tech. Make them targets as he gets a big cut of the production to rebuild the SLDF.

It might escalate things to the point where, 300 years later, the story would be that mankind has just rediscovered the capability to jump again.

[Wolverine-7SK]

Alexandr did the right thing. Face it, he was weary of war. He also didn't want to see his troops destroyed bit by bit because of quarrelsome House Lords. He had just freed the Hegemony, if he would have stayed, the 1st SW would have sterilized a lot more.

How would it be to you after this long campaign, and all the House Lords barely say thanks?

[faraday77]

How would it be to you after this long campaign, and all the House Lords barely say thanks?

Gather the entire remaining SLDF equipment from the whole IS at the Sol Zenith jump point. Invite the house lords to a party. Let them watch the ships carrying the equipment commence a slow burn into the sun on auto pilot. Enjoy the look of ultimate horror and anger on their faces. Walk out.

Did you still just deny your enemies what they wanted the most? Check. Did you still get your petty revenge? Check. 'Look ma, no cobbling together an exodus of six million peoples without destination or clue within just six months', and you still flipped them off.

On a more serious note: Kerensky had at least four years to prepare (more if we count up to the official start of the 1st SW.) He knew what was going to happen after the end of the Amaris Coup. If he was this weary, he should've left things to his subordinates/sons/Blake and just be a figurehead.

So, how do we waste all those years watching the house lords bicker? [The points made in the following list are NOT a guarantee for the Hegemony's survival...but it beats canon by a long shot, IMNSHO.]

• Found ComStar, charge it with rebuilding and maintain the HPG net.
• Rebuilt the economy.  Even with the nonsensical lack of resources in canon the TH still has enough of sought-after products to trade to the different nations with the connections to make this work.
• Let those that want to leave the SLDF do so, but without taking their equipment with them. Concentrate every available man and gun in the Hegemony for 'R&R'. Strip every SLDF base outside its borders of useful equipment.
• Declare the Hegemony neutral and to be handed over 'to the true new First Lord thats surely going to emerge' ( = the last one standing), while making sure that no 'false First Lord will ever again conquer the cradle of humanity'.
• Beat the house lords at their own games. Stall them like they stalled you in the Coup. Get the PR machine running. Spin stuff to your liking. Remember that the Hegemony's diplomat corps was (in)famous for a reason.
• Fortify and close up the Hegemony for any foreign armed forces, even those just wanting to recharge their drives or having a 'misjump'.
• Enforce this policy and the general neutrality if necessary by HPG interdictions and those battle hardened and extremely well equipped soldiers that crowd this tiny region of space.
• Oh, and if one or more of the lords decide to ignore this and assault you (looking at the DC here)? Stall them or kick them out and watch the Piranha Principle finish them off.
• Want some bonus points and open up additional possibilities? Help the periphery nations, making them a bigger threat to the houses in the process. Authorize covert ops to disrupt the houses war efforts.

[Void]

EDIT: I got a little carried away in composing my answer. With my apologies to our hosts, I have moved the resulting story to the Fan Fiction board. (Sorry!)

============================

Me personally, I don't think my first thought in that situation would be "ROAD TRIP! Everyone into the fleet, let's see where we wind up! It'll be an adventure!" I suppose it speaks to his strength that even while this badly used by life, he could do something with himself, even if the end results were, shall we say, less than ideal.

I think at best I would try to retire and disappear from public view. :D

[Mohammed As`Zaman Bey]

How would it be to you after this long campaign, and all the House Lords barely say thanks?

  Considering the Amaris Coup was an internal affair for the Terran Hegemony, Kerensky could man up and do his job to restore the TH. He was lucky the Houses didn't recognize Amaris as the ruler of the TH and order the SLDF to stand down during the decade Kerensky dithered.

  The Star League was secondary- Once the Terran Hegemony was returned to operation the Houses would fall back in line and return to raping the Periphery along with the TH.

  While "liberating" Terra was Kerensky's obsession, why didn't he bother to use the SLDF, with all its assets and personnel, to restore the TH?

I don't believe he was up to the task.

[Moonsword]

As a reminder, folks, IC perspective and fan fiction go in the roleplaying and fan fiction boards, respectively, not General Discussion or the faction boards.

[Jellico]

Kerensky's Jihad. Get as many Caspars back in the air as possible. Then wait till one of the Houses does something stupid. Better yet, encourage them to do something stupid on your own timescale. Just remember that you are on a 50 year trajectory to repair the Hegemony and you will be lucky to get 5.
Make an example of the stupid House. Liberal use of atomics, with a special focus on aerospace infrastructure. Operation Holy Shroud, and blanket Interdiction. Use the live SLDF as the offensive force. Rely on the Caspars for defense.
You might not make friends, but it will buy at least 10 years as the other Houses digest the example and try and figure out a way of breaking Fortress Hegemony without returning to the stone age.

[YingJanshi]

Would we really want a little insane Nicholas running around in the Sphere?

[Stormfury]

That's enough to send home almost every non Hegemony citizen to their respective states and begin a massive rebuilding and recruitment campaign.

Including the massive numbers of SLDF personnel needed to defend the Hegemony and who originated from the Houses?

That is the problem Kerensky faced. In theory, he had a massive army. In practice, large numbers of those troops had their ultimate loyalties elsewhere and were being enticed to leave the SLDF. He did not have the force strength to hold the Hegemony.

Would we really want a little insane Nicholas running around in the Sphere?

Assuming Nicholas was insane, that was the result of a brain fever he contracted in the Homeworlds. Also probable that Andery would still be around to temper his brother regardless.

[General308]

Alexandr did the right thing. Face it, he was weary of war. He also didn't want to see his troops destroyed bit by bit because of quarrelsome House Lords. He had just freed the Hegemony, if he would have stayed, the 1st SW would have sterilized a lot more.

How would it be to you after this long campaign, and all the House Lords barely say thanks?

Because leaving Billions to die because you are tired is always the right thing to do  ???   If he wanted to resign fine.  But what he decided to do was become the largest pirate band in the history of the Universe.

[master arminas]

Probably done my job and guard the Hegemony, negotiate a united Star League without any single Lord, and built up a power base over Terra.

Amen, my brother.  Amen.

Master Arminas

[master arminas]

I am working on the details of my next piece of fiction even now, based on this:

SLS McKenna's Pride is lost with all hands during the Liberation of Terra.  Including General Aleksandyr Kerensky  #P.  Although Amaris cackles with glee, he swiftly discovers that a furious Aaron DeChevilier is more than a match for his remaining forces.  The Rim World defenders are defeated, Amaris is captured, the Court of the Star League unsealed, and Amaris is shot. 

When the High Council meets, they refuse to appoint DeChevilier as the Commanding General of the SLDF . . . and they demand that the SLDF disband.  DeChevilier complies . . . to a degree.  Calling for volunteers within the SLDF to serve the Terran Hegemony in rebuiilding, he demobilizes every last non-Royal division and regiment that has survived to date.  Those SLDF troops who wish to return home are discharged--the remainder, all volunteers are inducted into the reformed Hegemony Armed Forces, to which DeChevilier transfers all of the SLDF Royal Divisions, Regiments, and surviving WarShips.   :o

In an orchestrated event, the newly reformed Hegemony Senate offers General DeChevilier the post of Commanding General of the reborn HAF.  DeChevilier accepts.  Sufficient volunteers (and surplus equipment) from the disbanded divisions and regiments are on hand to bring the newly constituted HAF to a force of 42 Divisions and 28 independent Regiments.  Not to mention 400+ WarShips.   :o [drool] }:)

The House Lords are furious; this was not what they had in mind.  But it is too late.  DeChevilier speaks to each of them in soldier's terms:  if you want me, come and try it.   >:D

There is no Exodus.  Aaron DeChevilier becomes the Director-General of the Terran Hegemony and becomes romanticly involved with Elizabeth Hazen.  The House Lords refuse to recogonize the new realm, and soon enough the Succession Wars begin . . . 


There are five 'provinces' of the Terran Hegemony.  Each of these will have a Corps of their own (I listed the capitals):  Lone Star (borders Steiner and Kurita), Lockdale (against Kurita, Davion, and Liao), Terra Firma (Liao and Marik), Tryfing (Marik and Steiner), and central province, which borders no one.

I Corps is stationed on Terra exclusively and is responsible for the defense of that single system.  II Corps in Lone Star, III and IV Corps in Lockdale (the biggest province), V Corps in the central province (Corps HQ on Asta), VI Corps in Terra Firma, and VII Corps in Tyrfing.

It's a far cry from the size of the SLDF that Kerensky took on the Exodus, but it remains a formidable foe for someone wanting to pick off Hegemony worlds.

On the naval side, I imagine the HAF will be forced to mothball approximately two-thirds of their existing WarShips, for personnel and budgetary reasons.  But I can see DeChevilier pushing for every damaged ship to be repaired before it goes into mothballs.  If they can keep 160 ships active, that is a Fleet of 20 vessels assigned to each Corps, with I Corps getting two Fleets (for a total of 40 ships) at Terra.  If through some miracle, they can restore, pay for, and man every last ship they have available, that would boost each Fleet to 55 ships each, for a total of at least 440 WarShips (400+ canon departed on the Exodus and there are a minimum of 55 known SLDF vessels that were left in the hands of ComStar or at mothballed SLDF faciltiies), with a minimum of at least 15 more ships available.

In comparison, the Great Houses had the following (from Liberation of Terra I, 2765):

AFFS:  110 'Mech Regiments, 51 WarShips.
CCAF:  92 'Mech Regiments, 37 WarShips.
DCMS:  115 'Mech Regiments, 42 WarShips.
FWLM:  95 'Mech Regiments; 47 WarShips.
LCAF:  90 'Mech Regiments; 62 WarShips.

vs. the HAF with 190 'Mech Regiments and 160 WarShips (plus armor, infantry, and supporting elements).

Any great problems with my numbers here?


Hegemony Armed Forces:  Ground Elements

I Corps:

151st BattleMech Division (The Ulysses S. Grant Division)
328th BattleMech Division (The Lion-Hearted Division)
13th Infantry Division (The Superstition Division)
9th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Pride of Puget Sound Division)
67th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Indian Division)
197th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Florida Swamp Foxes)
509th Battle Regiment (1st RCT)
11th Heavy Assault Regiment (1st RCT)
114th Heavy Assault Regiment (The Titans of Tymons) (1st RCT)
188th Independent Aero Wing (1st RCT)

II Corps:

26th BattleMech Division (The Graham Division)
349th BattleMech Division (The King Henry Division)
61st Jump Infantry Division
50th Mechanized Infantry Division
65th Mechanized Infantry Division
279th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Chara Cossacks)
902nd Hussar Regiment (2nd RCT)
43rd Light Horse Regiment (2nd RCT)
90th Light Horse Regiment (2nd RCT)
135th Striker Regiment (2nd RCT)

III Corps:

39th BattleMech Division (The Denebola Division)
135th BattleMech Division (The Van Dieman Division)
44th Infantry Division
13th Mechanized Infantry Division
27th Mechanized Infantry Division
169th Mechanized Infantry Division
111th Dragoon Regiment (3rd RCT)
71st Light Horse Regiment (3rd RCT)
151st Light Horse Regiment (3rd RCT)
21st Striker Regiment (3rd RCT)

IV Corps:

146th BattleMech Division (The George S. Patton Division)
341st BattleMech Division (The Black Prince Division)
106th Jump Infantry Division
120th Mechanized Infantry Division
132nd Mechanized Infantry Division
157th Mechanized Infantry Division
29th Dragoon Regiment (4th RCT)
367th Dragoon Regiment (4th RCT)
405th Dragoon Regiment (4th RCT)
358th Independent Aero Wing (4th RCT)

V Corps:
11th BattleMech Division (The Orion Division)
299th BattleMech Division (The Protector Division)
50th Infantry Division (The Flame Keepers of Greece)
131st Mechanized Infantry Division (The Los Angeles Division)
159th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Athena Division)
226th Mechanized Infantry Division (The Wild Ones)
9th Royal CAAN Marine Regiment (5th MEF)
22nd Royal CAAN Marine Regiment (5th MEF)
31st Royal CAAN Marine Regiment (5th MEF)
35th Royal CAAN Marine Regiment (5th MEF)

VI Corps:

150th BattleMech Division (The Rigel Kentaurus Division)
309th BattleMech Division (The Black Charger Division)
80th Jump Infantry Division
34th Mechanized Infantry Division
183rd Mechanized Infantry Division
255th Mechanized Infantry Division
152nd Hussar Regiment (6th RCT)
55th Light Horse Regiment (6th RCT)
59th Light Horse Regiment (6th RCT)
741st Striker Regiment (6th RCT)

VII Corps:
316th BattleMech Division (The Rio Grande Division)
331st BattleMech Division (The North American Division)
82nd Jump Infantry Division (The All Americans)
1st Mechanized Infantry Division
17th Mechanized Infantry Division
242nd Mechanized Infantry Division
16th Dragoon Regiment (7th RCT)
20th Dragoon Regiment (7th RCT)
74th Dragoon Regiment (7th RCT)
121st Dragoon Regiment (7th RCT)

Now, what I did was to take the list of units that survived the Amaris Coup and the Liberation of Terra.  I took as a rule of thumb that the average strength would be somewhere around 50%.  With that number pre-set, I began consolidating into the existing Royal formations (where available, but making them open to any loyal soldier, regardless of birthplace; equipment is a hodge-podge of regular SLDF and Royal, but that is to be expected), marking off units to bring another of the same type (BattleMech, Mech Infantry, etc.) up to full strength.  Now, once I did that, I still had a BUTTLOAD of units left.  So I marked off another third to represent the soldiers who desert, leave the service honorably, or otherwise do not want to become part of HAF.  That cost me another 21 Divisions right there (plus 14 more independent regiments; I had to merge some indies into a couple of divisions to make the numbers work!).  Of course, not all of those 21+ divisions are going to the houses.  Probably half will simply be returning home and trying to restart a normal life.  But we are still looking at around 127 Regiments that might join the Great Houses (with probably about 37-45 of those being 'Mech Regiments).

Total strength for HAF is 42 divisions and 28 independent regiments, organized into seven Corps of six divisions and four regiments each.  With 190 'Mech Regiments, 126 armored regiments, forty-four aero wings, four CAAN Marine regiments, 210 infantry regiments of all types, and appropriate supporting forces.

And here's my take on the naval forces available during this time.  The numbers are based on what we know the Clans have, plus information from Klondike and Wars of Reaving about what other ships they took out of the caches (or were destroyed).  I have inflated the numbers in certain classes in order to match the canon number of 401 ships (402 if you count the McKenna's Pride which is blown apart in this AU).   Tell me if the numbers look right, please.

First of all:  here are the numbers of WarShips that ComStar/WoB had access to after the Exodus (does not include any ships they produced in the interim). 

ComStar/WoB:  1 x Bonaventure; 6 x Vincent; 3 x Baron; 1 x Carson; 4 x Naga; 1 x Riga (York); 11 x Essex; 8 x Lola III; 1 x Quixote; 5 x Aegis; 2 x Congress; 3 x Sovetskii Soyuz; 3 x Black Lion; 1 x Cameron; 1 x Potemkin; 1 x McKenna; 2 x Newgrange

Total:  54

Next are my take on the ships that would have gone on the Exodus, with notes where necessary:

Exodus:  4 x Bug Eyes; 6 x Mako; 36 x Carrack; 38 x Vincent; 7 x Samarkand II; 4 x Baron; 1 x Concordat; 1 x Davion I; 8 x Whirlwind; 22 x Riga (York); 16 x Essex; 39 x Lola III (Note #1); 1 x Wagon Wheel; 11 x Quixote (Voga); 1 x Winchester; 38 x Aegis; 24 x Congress; 5 x Kimagure; 12 x Black Lion; 40 x Sovetskii Soyuz (Note #2); 7 x Avatar (Liberator); 12 x Cameron; 1 x Du Shi Wang; 2 x Monsoon (Note #3); 32 x Potemkin (Note #4); 8 x Texas (Note #5); 17 x McKenna (Note #6); 8 x Newgrange (Note #7)

Total:  401 (I added some Makos (4), Carracks (7), Vincents (14), Samarkands (4), Barons (3), a Concordat (1), a Wagon Wheel (1), a Winchester (1), and Congresses (7) as 'filler' to reach the 401 mark.  I decided on the three Taurian ships as having been in mothballs all these years, activated in the aftermath of the decision to launch Exodus.)

Note 1:  We are told that the Lola III is the second most common vessel of the Exodus Fleet.  But not according to the numbers I have crunched here.  I added one more Lola III to make it the second most common vessel (40 Sovetski Soyuz, 39 Lola III, 38 Aegis).

Note 2:  We are told that 'about forty' Sovetskii Soyuz survived to depart with the SLDF on the Exodus; I can only account for 17, however.  I find it surprising that there would be 23 of these ships in naval caches, but . . . perhaps it is so.

Note 3:  We discover in Liberation of Terra, that Kerensky added two Kurita battleships to his Fleet.  No class was specified.  I have assigned them as Monsoon-class; older ships that are no threat to the SLDF.

Note 4:  Likewise, we are told that only 30 Potemkins survived--and that one of those was lost.  My numbers show 31 on active duty in Clans and one more that was lost (Clan Widowmaker Ship Egg Sack).

Note 5:  Just seven Texas-class were part of the Exodus; the only seven to survive the conflict.  TRO 3057 even mentions that two of the survivors were then subsequently destroyed!  But that doesn't match up with what is listed in succeeding books:  there are 8 Texas class ships, and I cannot find a note indicating the loss of any Texas prior to the Wars of Reaving.  Seven ships are on active duty, the Prinz Eugen serves as a penal ship, and another vessel (Perth) is mentioned as having surrendered in Klondike.  Now, Perth could be one of the Texas-class belonging to the other Clans, just renamed.  It isn't clear.  But that still leaves 8.  Not seven, and definately not five.

Note 6:  Twenty-nine McKenna-class survived the Amaris Coup and the Liberation. Eleven of those were scuttled (but it seems like that one of those was actually repaired by ComStar/WoB).  That means eighteen departed on the Exodus.  I can only account for 9, though.  I have decreased this by one, since this scenario requires that McKenna's Pride gets clobbered on the approach to Earth.

Note 7:  We don't know how many Newgrange-class ships were in the Exodus Fleet, but I have given the number as 8.  These are rear-area ships, but they will still have suffered greatly from Amaris raiders.  And the presence of them gives an explanation for how the Clans developed their space industry so quickly.

Master Arminas

[ckosacranoid]

Would we really want a little insane Nicholas running around in the Sphere?

AN INSANE NIKKY IS REALLY NO WORSE THEN MOST OF THE BLOODY HOUSE LORDS AT SOME POINT....like the drac leader who brought us the keterning massacre.....or sevral stiener nut jobs or any even the nut job that wacked family that ran the star league.

[mensa12345]

Declare myself the new head of the Terran Hegemony and First Lord.  The SLDF is loyal to me (really, really loyal, apparently).  My navy could take on the fleets of the rest of the Inner Sphere combined.  I would probably get support from Davion, Steiner and maybe Marik.  Realistically, no single power, or combination of powers, could afford to attack. 

[Mohammed As`Zaman Bey]

Realistically, no single power, or combination of powers, could afford to attack.

  Exactly.

  Even after a handful of units were lured away, Kerensky could have done a lot more than just loot the ruins of the TH then run away from House Lords waving contracts at his troops.

[Stormfury]

Because leaving Billions to die because you are tired is always the right thing to do

What he actually did was remove the largest and most powerful army human history had ever seen from the equation before it was disintegrated completely and used to further the ambitions of the House Lords.

Many, many times in the novels the characters or narrators describe how humanity was nearly bludgeoned back to the Stone Age during the Succession Wars. That is what happened without additional hundreds of regiments and WarShips at the disposal of the House Lords. Had those forces remained, humanity would have been lucky to survive the First Succession War.

Even after a handful of units were lured away, Kerensky could have done a lot more than just loot the ruins of the TH then run away from House Lords waving contracts at his troops.

With what? He was stripped of his rank, and that was after the House Lords went all out to prevent him from being involved in the parenting of Richard Cameron and fulfilling his duties as Regent for him. Kerensky served solely at the pleasure of the House Lords, and they had made it more than clear they would not tolerate him having anything even vaguely resembling a position of authority.

[Mecha-Anchovy]

A crazy thought:

We tend to treat the house lords as a unit when considering this time period, and that may not be fair. One real option for Kerensky is to take over the Hegemony and then ally with one or more of the great houses.

The First Succession War was as bad as it was because every house felt that it had something to gain by fighting. Every house felt that war was, in some sense, in their best interests. The Kuritas thought they could crush the Davions and thus intimidate the other houses into handing over the First Lordship. The Steiners were eating up the Rim Worlds Republic and thought they could profit at the FWL's expense. Kenyon Marik thought he could cut the Capellan Confederation in two and expand the League. And so on. Every single house was engaged in military conflict because they could all profit from looting the Hegemony; and any house that failed to go to war in the Hegemony would only be handing over those vast planetary resources and useful strategic positions to the other four.

If you want to stop the First Succession War, you just need to ensure that the great houses don't have enough to gain by fighting. That means courting the more reasonable house lords and building a coalition that can intimidate the more warlike house lords. After the Amaris Civil War, the SLDF did still have the equipment and manpower to make a pretty good show of crushing any particular great house, correct? They would simply not be able to do it more than once.

So let's have a think. The Steiners, Davions, and Liaos were all generous to the SLDF during the Amaris Civil War. We know that John Davion was the most reluctant house lord to loot the Hegemony, and the Steiners are sufficiently busy annexing the Rim Worlds Republic that they can probably be convinced that further territorial gains aren't needed. We've always been told that Barbara Liao personally admired and respected Kerensky. There's potential here. You set about securing the borders of the Hegemony, even if you have to let a few worlds go. Ally with Blake and make it an enlarged Operation Silver Shield if you need to. Then you try to appeal to those house lords. You might be able to just plain bribe the Steiners by making their governance of the Rim Worlds Republic semi-official. Call it a protectorate or something. War isn't in the Lyrans' best interests and they've already got all those worlds to deal with. Play to John Davion's idealism; maybe give him some of the Hegemony-Suns border worlds. Do the same with Liao. She's paranoid to commit too much aid to the Star League out of fear that it would leave the Confederation exposed to Davion or Marik aggression. Give her some guarantees in that regard and you might be able to win her over.

As Kerensky, you're never going to convince Kenyon Marik or Minoru Kurita to play nice, but they can both be intimidated. Neither are stupid enough to start a war they can't win. A Hegemony-Commonwealth-Suns-Confederation axis is too powerful to challenge. Anyway, you get all the council lords together and talk about the Star League. If possible, dredge up a Cameron heir and make noises about a regency. If that's not possible or feasible, per the old house SBs we know that Richard Cameron nominated John Davion as his successor, though only Davion and Kurita know this for a fact. If Kerensky knows this as well, well, a solution presents itself. If you can present any proof, then you have a new First Lord, though it'll clearly take some very tricky diplomacy to turn a Davion First Lordship to anything stable. Ideally you'd want to convince John to not try to turn it into a hereditary Davion position, and that might not be possible. Maybe offer him a regency role while some notional Cameron heir is readied? (Might even be possible to get Minoru to respect it. Minoru's reasoning in the old SB is very suspect. 'As if a deposed ruler's contemptible wishes could be binding on a leader secure in his people's fealty!' Um, yes, Minoru, see, you seemed to think that Takiro Kurita's last wishes were binding. Why not Richard Cameron's? Whatever happened to that whole giri thing?)

I'm not saying it would be easy, but it seems like there's a potential diplomatic solution. All you really have to do is stall the First Succession War for a few decades while the Hegemony rebuilds. There are worries, certainly, both in the First Lord debate and with the possibility of SLDF defections if you start favouring certain houses over others, but it seems more viable to me than just trying to make a 'Fortress Hegemony' and hoping to high heaven that things will turn out okay.

[Nov. Col.]

I agree, Kerensky had enormous political and military capital to use and 3 friendly Houses.  This isn't even counting Blake and taking control of the HPG network.  Leaving didn't prevent anything did it?

Use your capital, take out a few select targets, and hunker down. Kerensky had the adoration and devotion of millions of soldiers and billions of citizens and just left.