a) Keeping in mind that SAFE is keeping an eye on you and you know that SAFE is, you can't funnel allot of your spare change from between the seat cushions into whatever you do. You've got a budget of ten million (10,000,000) C-Bills you can spend each year from 3020 to 3030.
b) The Mariks of course are your enemy. So are their fan clubs in Oriente and Orloff. The Regulans are jerks. While the Canopians are your close friends and will definitely help out when the time comes, you can't help but feel a premonition that they are really can't help you carry that really big couch into your new digs so maybe you should make more friends. But who to talk to...
Given the measly budget and the multiple potential FWL opponents listed, I think the only potentially viable solution is to use a very dirty bag-of-political-tricks/psyops/deep black ops/false flags to play these FWL factions against each other. Basically, you want to do what the Word of Blake did at the outset of the Jihad in playing the Houses against each other, but on a smaller scale. Make the major FWL factions care more about each other than they care about whether the Duchy is seceding at the time of the Andurien secession. Ideally, these factions would either be in a civil war or at the brink of one when the Humphreys feign disgust at the whole situation and declare their independence. While the FWL factions sort out their problems (problems the Anduriens created or brought to the fore), the Anduriens seek diplomatic recognition, solidify their allies, and fortify. By that time, it will be too late for the rest of the FWL to bring the Anduriens back into the fold, at least not without paying too high a price.
C) Okay, I lied, it's more like four things. The Steiners and the Davions are those wealthy people down the street that could give a **** about your problems. Talking to them is probably isn't going to help any and probably will make them worse. You know the type... tell them you need a little help dealing with the neighbors between you and they instead rat you out to them and then the lawyers get involved... so don't go talking to the richies okay?
The Canopian Magistracy Intelligence Ministry would be a very experienced, valuable, and deniable asset for the type of disinformation/finger-pointing/blame-throwing/chaos-sowing campaign envisioned above. But I have no idea whether the Humphreys or anyone else outside certain House Lords and their intel agencies had any in-game knowledge of secret MIM assets like the Active Response Corps and Ebon Magistrate, such that the Humphreys could even ask the Centrellas to lend them a few teams.
The other ally you could turn to is ComStar. Given what happened to Rasalhague and St. Ives some years later, ComStar is very interested in helping smaller states secede and breaking up the Houses around this timeframe. Their help could be both covert (ROM intel and teams, maybe even ComGuard black flag ops) and overt (diplomatic recognition). In fact, ComStar could be more into destabilizing the FWL and bringing their first House down than about Andurien secession, especially before the formation of the Federated Commonwealth. But again, I have no idea whether the Humphreys or anyone else outside certain House Lords and their intel agencies (and WolfNet) really understood that ComStar was playing these kinds of destabilization games with the Houses back in this timeframe.
(Of course, secretly allying with ComStar is like making a deal with the devil, especially if ROM is involved. Some years after secession, the Humphreys might all be dead and the Duchy a ComStar protectorate.)
Finally, although I think it's realistic for the Duchy to undertake this kind of FWL destablization/Andurien seccession campaign with some help from Canopus or ComStar (or both), the Andurien leadership has never struck me as the plotting type that could conceive of such a plan. The Anduriens are not white hats, but they've never seemed high enough on either the I.Q. scale or sinister scale to even think of doing something like this (nevertheless pull it off). Dame Catherine seems to fit the Humphreys mold, inserting her foot into her mouth publicly and doing little behind the scenes. I think you'd have to introduce a new character -- a conniving family member (maybe a bastard child to explain their un-Humphrey-like ambition and I.Q.) or a Rasputin-like character outside the family that's pulling Catherine's strings from behind the throne and putting the plot together for her.
My 2 c-bills... hope it helps.
