The Taurian Concordat doesn't go wonky

[Korzon77]

Let's assume that the protector of the TC doesn't have his Paranoia fest.  Edward doens't die, and so continues to have a moderating influence on the TC.  The investment in long-term industries and the colonization efforts continue, rather than plowing everything into preparing to fight the dangerous Davion hordes. 

What does a Concordat that has focused on sustainable industrial and military growth look like, say at the beginning of the Clan invasion?

[Maelwys]

Not a whole lot different than it did in the canon timeline. Pre-3050's everyone was slowly building up, but there wasn't anything major. Expansion and growth didn't really take off until post 3050.

We might see some new colonies show up earlier, and some tech advances earlier as well, but I doubt we'd see them at the beginning of the Clan Invasion. The Periphery has to lag behind the Houses, so we weren't going to see a major jump at that period.

I'd also have to point out that with all the spending supposedly done on the TDF, they only gained about 2 regiments from 3025 (Periphery 1st Edition) to 3049 (20 Year Update). His giant spending increases didn't start until 3028ish, so there wasn't unknown growth in the military before the 1st Periphery book (or atleast none that would matter). And with their embezzlement scheme, the Far Lookers were able to keep their plans going until 3037.

So yeah. You might see some new colonies in (though its questionable if they'd be in a state to be counted on the map). You might see some civilian factories and technologies a little bit ahead, but you're not going to see massive changes to the TC.

[Archangel]

If the Taurians didn't continue their paranoia streak, it is more than likely that they would have been better off economically.  Money spent on the military would likely instead have been spent expanding the civilian sector as well as colonizing new planets.  They might not have been more technologically advanced but their economy would likely have been a lot stronger.  It would likely have been similar the growth the Magistracy experienced when she reinvested money back into her nation's economy.

[Deadborder]

Thomas doesn't really begin to delve into crazy levels of paranoia until the Clan Invasion, when he became convinced that the Clans are actually a cover story for the AFFC to reshuffle troops in preparation for an invasion.

The TC isn't going to look that much difference. The Far Lookers had rorted the state for billions and, in doing such, had soured the idea of further colonial expansion with their actions. So yes, maybe the TC would be better off in small degrees, but certainly not enough to make a massive difference.

[Liam's Ghost]

I agree it would be pretty much the same. Also, BORING. Long term you could lift it completely out of the setting without any appreciable difference.

[Archangel]

Thomas doesn't really begin to delve into crazy levels of paranoia until the Clan Invasion, when he became convinced that the Clans are actually a cover story for the AFFC to reshuffle troops in preparation for an invasion.

The TC isn't going to look that much difference. The Far Lookers had rorted the state for billions and, in doing such, had soured the idea of further colonial expansion with their actions. So yes, maybe the TC would be better off in small degrees, but certainly not enough to make a massive difference.

You are incorrect on both accounts.  First, Thomas Calderon's paranoia started during or shortly after the Fourth Succession War when Thomas became convinced that Hanse was planning to redirect the AFFS' efforts towards the Concordat (which of course he had no plans on doing).  "With Hanse Davion’s triumphant Fourth Succession War over, Protector Thomas Calderon (prompted by his growing paranoia) ploughed ever-increasing levels of funding and resources into preparing the Concordat’s defenses for an attack that never came." (ISP, p98)

Second, the Far Lookers didn't start siphoning money until after Thomas Calderon funding part of his massive buildup campaign by taking it from the funding that was allocated to the Far Lookers.  "As Protector Calderon’s mania began to affect their activities, she [Loren MacKenzie, a Far Looker leader,] established a “trust fund” into which monies could be siphoned from other government departments." (ISP, p98)

[Liam's Ghost]

Whether acquired legally or illegally, it doesn't change that the money was going to the Far Lookers for their projects. Those colonies are expensive.

[Korzon77]

Expensive, but illegal money is generally far more expensive-- you have to buy in a way that doesn't attract attention, hide your expenditures, etc. There's a reason many fences will pay a theif pennies on a dollar.

So an open policy means that any given dollar (or c-bill) is going futher. There's also the factor that you can have more dependability in terms of funding, which allows for a long-term project management style.

Then there's the fact that ultimately by investing in the civilian sector instead of pulling money to the military, the military would actually eventually grow dramatically.  The more you develop your civilian sector the wealthier your civilians are and the more tax revenue there is-- which means even if on a percentage basis you keep your funding the same, more moeny is still going to the military.

And then there's another fact-- a TC not crippled by a crazy protector is one that may be open to greater Investment by the FS. Hanse had no choice about funding the FWL, but I wouldn't put it past him to offer some deals to the TC in order to open up a new supply chain (and as far as the FS is concerned, the TC isn't a therat even if they do have modern equipment).

[Maelwys]

Sure, it may not have gone as far, but they were still able to keep things going for nearly a decade until they were caught. So that leaves a little under a decade and a half for everything to kick in. I'm still thinking that you're not going to see a lot of difference between the two Taurian Concordants at the start of the Clan Invasion.

And don't quote me on this because I don't want to dig out the Periphery books to check, but did the Taurian civilian economy really show any problems until the late 3050's and 3060's under Grover's massive paranoia?

The problem with the FS turning to the TC is going to be perception on both sides. Not only that, if you don't have the paranoid Proctor, then the TC isn't going to be spending the money needed to upgrade their military infrastructure, making sales to the FS an issue at the rate that's needed. A strong civilian economy will eventually trickle down to a strong military economy, but I don't think it will be that good in the limited time provided.

For instance, once Emma Centrella kicked out her mother and started working heavily to increase the MoC's civilian economy it still took until the late 3050's AND the help of the CapCon for the investments to really kick in. Could the Taurians have started it earlier and maybe gotten it working a bit earlier? Perhaps. But again, I'm still not seeing massive differences between the two ideas of the TC in 3050.

[Liam's Ghost]

I recall older sources suggesting the Concordat had a relatively weak economy as far back as the succession wars (probably relative to the Magistracy), though specifics elude me at the moment.

[Korzon77]

I'd say a non-crazy TC is in a position of gradually increasing-- and then moving much faster. They already have a fairly decent educational base, though one heavily damaged by the succession wars (even though they have entire worlds with billions, but we're just going to go with it. ) Also they had a pretty-non-corrupt government. So you'lll see a fairly slow period, that accelerates as the civilian economy starts taking off. For the FS and TC, you'll start to get the effect of investment-- Hans may actually be willing to pay for factories-- remembering that they're safe from the clans-- or rather by the time the clans get to the TC, the federated suns isn't an issue any more.

They'd probably have more access to the Helm Core, which could improve the civlian infrastructure even further. The big thing is that if they don't over spend on military forces during the period up until the clan war that money likely goes back to improving the over all economy and infrastructure, which makes it much easier to build a military up later.

[Archangel]

Whether acquired legally or illegally, it doesn't change that the money was going to the Far Lookers for their projects. Those colonies are expensive.

If the Far Lookers had continued to get their funding, they wouldn't have felt the need to siphon off as much funding as possible before they were cut off.

And don't quote me on this because I don't want to dig out the Periphery books to check, but did the Taurian civilian economy really show any problems until the late 3050's and 3060's under Grover's massive paranoia?

Well Shraplen didn't become Protector until the 3060s, but to answer your question yes.  Shraplen quickly threw the Taurian economy, which was still trying to recover from Thomas Calderon's mismanagement, into a tailspin.  Things got so bad that many were demanding for Shraplen's immediate resignation.  Only the arrival of the Fighting Urakhai over the Taurian Homeworld saved him from being ousted.  While civilians will accept austerity measures in times of war, they are far less accepting in times of peace.  In addition to that, both Thomas Calderon and Grover Shraplen drafted large numbers of people from the civilian sector to shore up their defenses.

For instance, once Emma Centrella kicked out her mother and started working heavily to increase the MoC's civilian economy it still took until the late 3050's AND the help of the CapCon for the investments to really kick in.

Incorrect.  The Magistracy had already become the dominant economic power by 3050 and they didn't need Capellan help to get there. (FM:Periphery, p21)

Could the Taurians have started it earlier and maybe gotten it working a bit earlier? Perhaps. But again, I'm still not seeing massive differences between the two ideas of the TC in 3050.

 ::)  In the proposed timeline, Thomas wouldn't have ordered the majority of government funding to the military sector, the Far Lookers wouldn't have felt the need to siphon off vast sums, the Taurian economy wouldn't have been crippled by taxation and drafting of civilian workers and slipped into a recession and fewer people would have been calling for their worlds to secede.  While their economy likely wouldn't have improved as quickly as in the Magistracy where the Magestrix invested large sums of her family fortune into their economy, it would have improved and it would have been able to take advantage of the resources found on worlds recently colonized.

[Korzon77]

Also, in many respects the TC and the FS have a lot in common-- there's anger, buthonestly, it's a bit much to assume that the TC and FS are innate enemies unless you add in the paranoia of Thomas helping make it so.  Especially once the Clan wars hit, you could expect a fair amount of investment, especially given the high educational standards of the TC's core worlds.

[David CGB]

Also, in many respects the TC and the FS have a lot in common-- there's anger, buthonestly, it's a bit much to assume that the TC and FS are innate enemies unless you add in the paranoia of Thomas helping make it so.  Especially once the Clan wars hit, you could expect a fair amount of investment, especially given the high educational standards of the TC's core worlds.

the FS could also use them to build up the FS military as you could buy all that they produce, which would also speed up the growth in the TC.

[Maelwys]

I dunno. One of the draws of the FS using the FWL factory was that they were already spinning up to produce Star League technology. With the Taurian Concordant you're going to have to work to put them at the same place that the FWL is at.

And if Davion wants to put factories in that are safe from the Clans, why not just do it in the FedSuns portion of the FedCom? Down near the Periphery would give them basically the same protection from the Clans that putting them down in the TC would.

[Archangel]

Also, in many respects the TC and the FS have a lot in common-- there's anger, buthonestly, it's a bit much to assume that the TC and FS are innate enemies unless you add in the paranoia of Thomas helping make it so.  Especially once the Clan wars hit, you could expect a fair amount of investment, especially given the high educational standards of the TC's core worlds.

the FS could also use them to build up the FS military as you could buy all that they produce, which would also speed up the growth in the TC.

Even without Thomas' paranoia I don't think that the TC and the FS would have that good a relationship for the FS to invest that much money with them.  Probably the best one could hope for is for them to ignore each other.

And if Davion wants to put factories in that are safe from the Clans, why not just do it in the FedSuns portion of the FedCom? Down near the Periphery would give them basically the same protection from the Clans that putting them down in the TC would.

Possible but the problem with that is that they would have to station troops there to defend the factories even if it is only against pirate raiders out of Tortuga.  Not to mention that it isn't simply a matter of building a factory but ensure that the infrastructure can support the factory unless you want to have the parts shipped in from all over the nation.  Skilled workers would have to be shipped in to staff the factory as the locals are unlikely to have the specialized knowledge needed to produce BattleMechs.

[Korzon77]

Yeah-- putting a factory on Taurus makes it pretty safe-- Granted the TC doesn't have the fleet it used to, but even so, getting in (and out) of the cluster is no joke. 

Actually that'd be an amusing outcome-- the FC and TC collaborate on building a shipyard in one of the most secure parts of human space.  the FC gets their fox corvettes without problems and the TC gets to return to the glory days of having Concordat class corvettes.

[Deadborder]

That's pretty pie in the sky stuff. The FC aren't giong to trust an ally that much, especially not one with a long history of grudging hatred. Even before the 4th SW, the Taurian people hated the FedSuns for simply existing and their part in the reunification war. And that's during the days of moderate leadership, let alone pants on head paranoia.

Besides which, the TC lacks the infrastructure (shipyards, knowledge, skills, resources etc) to build anything bigger then a Union. A warship is well out of their reach; even a regular jumpship is beyond them

[Korzon77]

That's actually not as hard as it looks-- the TC went from having no fleet at all, to building one that challenged the SLDF. And that was with a technology actually lower than what they currently have.  (Age of War Tech, in fact). Though that does get to the issue that there's no reason why most of the successor states shouldn't have warship fleets, given that the tech used for the first warships was actually behind 3025 tech in some respects.

[Deadborder]

It's the universe; it's how it works.

The fact is that the TC doesn't have any ability at all to manufacture any jumpships at all by 3025 and not even by 3067. They're certainly not going to be able to scale up to a Warship in a hurry, and the FedSuns is not going to invest in helping them do such.

Consider this; the TC couldn't rebuild the TCS Vandeburg, an existing ship. And that's nothing compared to the scale of what would be needed to build a new one.

[bigmac]

That's actually not as hard as it looks-- the TC went from having no fleet at all, to building one that challenged the SLDF. And that was with a technology actually lower than what they currently have.  (Age of War Tech, in fact). Though that does get to the issue that there's no reason why most of the successor states shouldn't have warship fleets, given that the tech used for the first warships was actually behind 3025 tech in some respects.

All of the Successor States, the Magistracy, and the Concordat had access to all of the naval technology in 3025 with one vital exception.  They had lost the ability to manufacture fusion engines to drive the warships through space.  The largest fusion engine built that was safely operational was the one for the Mammoth dropship (52,000 tons) that provided a safe thrust of 1.5 g (3 thrust points) and a maximum of 2.5 g (5 thrust points).  The fusion engine for Behemoth dropship (100,000 tons) was so unstable that the Behemoth could only operate safely at 0.5 g acceleration (1 point thrust).  If the engine was operated at maximum of 1.5 g (3 points thrust), structural and engine damage occurred. 

The Concordat is in a worse position since they only had the ability to produce the V250 Interplanetary Fusion Drive for the Union, Trojan, and Danais; and the V84 Interplanetary Fusion Drive for the Leopard.

The first warships of the Kirishima class cruisers, Kyushu class frigates (Draconis Combine) and Fox corvettes (Federated Commonwealth) were built with fusion engines provided from ComStar's Titan shipyards.  The first Impavido class destroyers (Free Worlds League and Capellan Confederation) were built with fusion engines salvaged and made operational again by the Word of Blake.  The Successor states didn't regain the ability to manufacture warship fusion engines until 3058.

[Archangel]

That's actually not as hard as it looks-- the TC went from having no fleet at all, to building one that challenged the SLDF. And that was with a technology actually lower than what they currently have.  (Age of War Tech, in fact). Though that does get to the issue that there's no reason why most of the successor states shouldn't have warship fleets, given that the tech used for the first warships was actually behind 3025 tech in some respects.

Uh yes it is.  The Taurians spent huge  amounts of money investing in their WarShip fleet throughout the Age of War purchasing large numbers from other states including the Terran Hegemony.  The 3025 TC had nowhere near the funding nor industrial capacity to even come close to replicating that feat.  I don't believe that the Taurian Concordat even had the capability to manufacture JumpShips let alone WarShips.

[Korzon77]

Uh yes it is.  The Taurians spent huge  amounts of money investing in their WarShip fleet throughout the Age of War purchasing large numbers from other states including the Terran Hegemony.  The 3025 TC had nowhere near the funding nor industrial capacity to even come close to replicating that feat.  I don't believe that the Taurian Concordat even had the capability to manufacture JumpShips let alone WarShips.

Which is why the history of btech is utterly, pants on head, *stupid* stupid to the level where we must assume that the new thing in human space is the universal use of lead piping for water. 

241 years pass between the exodus and 3025.  The TC is the only state that is A. not at war and B. has a safe internal space (the cluster section). We also know that the internal population of the cluster (ignoring outside) was likely over 5 billion or so, although it could have been far higher. (The population of the TC in 3145 is over 33 billion, but that counts external worlds, but equally doesn't count the worlds the TC lost ).    The TC is also specifically called out as one of hte best educated of the periphery states, equally some of hte successor states. 

Now, let's look at what 241 years means. that was 1866 if you go for 241 years before the launch of the first jump ship.  If you look at the modernization of china in 1976 you weren't simply pre-modern, you were back in Imperial China, pre-Opium war.  241 years ago, we were just barely entering the industrial revolution and people were wondering about this new fangled thing called steam tech. 241 years isn't simply enough time to recover from a war-- it's enough time to train entire generations of engineers-- from scratch. It's actually a longer period of time than it took to develop the technologies--from scratch.  Even presuming Mentor of Arisia (er, comstar) had managed to destroy every single diagram of advanced warship engines, you had more than enough time, and an equal population to terra, to redevelop the techniques from first principles-- and again with the advantage that you knew it could be done.

Now obviously, this is just the setting.  But honestly, it's one of the things that has increasingly kept me out of btech campaigns lately. I'm a professional historian. And to be honest, the lack of industrial progress in betch is increasingly hard to suspend my disbelief for.  FTL doesn't bother me.  Fusion engines that put out far too much power don't bother me.  The idea that a power that is more or less at peace (yes, they've had pirate raids, but nobody's dropped hell burners all over their homeworld) cannot even start to recover in 241 years-- a longer period than most real world nations have *existed* under the same government, is something that just blows suspension of disbelief right out the door.  It doesn't require comstar-- it requires again, the assumption that Either Mentor of Arisia or Gharlane of Eddore is interfering.

[Deadborder]

Uh yes it is.  The Taurians spent huge  amounts of money investing in their WarShip fleet throughout the Age of War purchasing large numbers from other states including the Terran Hegemony.  The 3025 TC had nowhere near the funding nor industrial capacity to even come close to replicating that feat.  I don't believe that the Taurian Concordat even had the capability to manufacture JumpShips let alone WarShips.

They didn't. None of the Periphery nations could manufacture any Jumpships of any size by 3025. Even in spite of the technological Renaissance of the period, none of them had regained the ability to do such by 3067 either. In fact, none of them had any shipyards capable of handling Jumpship maintenance or overhauls either, making them dependent on Inner Sphere powers for such.

By 3079, the Outworlds Alliance's long-dormant and nonoperational Quatre Belle shipyards were being refitted by the Snow Ravens and had become functional as repair/refit facilities. Making them capable of constructing a whole jumpship from scratch was a long term goal.

[Archangel]

241 years pass between the exodus and 3025.  The TC is the only state that is A. not at war and B. has a safe internal space (the cluster section). We also know that the internal population of the cluster (ignoring outside) was likely over 5 billion or so, although it could have been far higher. (The population of the TC in 3145 is over 33 billion, but that counts external worlds, but equally doesn't count the worlds the TC lost ).    The TC is also specifically called out as one of hte best educated of the periphery states, equally some of hte successor states.

While the TC stayed mostly stayed out of the Succession Wars they too were severely affected by it and did get involved in a couple conflicts mostly against the Taurian Concordat.  The TDF launched a couple invasions designed to expand their borders into the territory between the TC and the MoC.  Unfortunately they were all ultimately costly failures.

The Star League has forced all the Periphery states to become economically dependent upon them and none of the Periphery states were prepared for the consequences of completely cutting themselves off from the League after they declared their independence.  Suddenly their worlds found themselves with warehouses full of product that they couldn't sell and found themselves without the means to purchase necessities such as food and as a result many starved. 

To make matters worse, many of the Taurian colonies that were established after the RW were dependent on terraforming equipment provided by the Star League to maintain their habitability.  Over time the equipment failed due to lack of parts and/or proper maintenance and as a result the worlds started reverting to their natural state forcing the human population to flee.

[Korzon77]

That would work if we were talking a period of a few decades or so00 but the problme is that the period of nearly 250 years.  The Star League couldn't have made them that dependent-- or to put it differently, look at China today, and compare it to the Great Leap years.  Even if all the worlds outside the cluster died-- which didn't happen, you still have billions of people on earth types worlds that were immune to invasion. 

Or to put it differently, that didn't work because 240 years not only is enough time to recover from SL interference it was enough time to literally start from scratch and reinvent everything needed-- because that's *exactly* that the TErrans did, from 1900 to 2141, which ws the differnce between not even knowing about such things as "fusion" to establishing the first FTL sshipping lines.

To be honest, this doesn't make seince-- it can't make sense unless you simply state: God did it.

[Liam's Ghost]

That isn't exclusive to the Taurians. Or rather its a manifestation of the same thing that keeps house armies improbably small and keeps the economy not functioning in the Inner Sphere. The Taurian Concordat is a periphery state. Their lot is crappier because they're at the bottom of the Crapsack. The Inner Sphere wasn't even really fighting a war for most of the succession wars. The vast majority of the third succession war was occasionally poking each other with a pointy stick. A hundred years of exhausted, worn out poking and the great houses couldn't appreciably make it back to even Pre Star League levels, why would the Taurians do any better, even without Tommy McCrazypants?

[Offworlder]

That would work if we were talking a period of a few decades or so00 but the problme is that the period of nearly 250 years.  The Star League couldn't have made them that dependent-- or to put it differently, look at China today, and compare it to the Great Leap years.  Even if all the worlds outside the cluster died-- which didn't happen, you still have billions of people on earth types worlds that were immune to invasion. 

Or to put it differently, that didn't work because 240 years not only is enough time to recover from SL interference it was enough time to literally start from scratch and reinvent everything needed-- because that's *exactly* that the TErrans did, from 1900 to 2141, which ws the differnce between not even knowing about such things as "fusion" to establishing the first FTL sshipping lines.

To be honest, this doesn't make seince-- it can't make sense unless you simply state: God did it.

Indeed, given the setting of BT, the technological draught of several hundred years would have made it the most backward era in human history. Besides, the fabric of the states involved would have unraveled totally especially if there wasn't the lift necessary to conduct commerce or coercive actions of a military nature. Also feudal structure simply collapses into its component parts unless there is a relatively strong hand at the centre or a powerful external threat.

Finally, war does provide added impetus to technological advancement and structural projects on a grand scale. This is totally absent and incredibly nukes etc wiped out knowledge on a galactic scale. That is simply impossible especially since the resources available to the IS states and the periphery are huge by any standard frankly by blowing up a shipyard does not automatically mean that a given state lost all the associated knowledge. (Indirectly, this is alluded to in BT given the DC and FWL massive expansion of shipbuilding yards and sometimes building from scratch after the coming of the Clans).

Therefore I find it strange that states could build spare parts but did not try to build (or salvage) warships in the later Succession Wars. Even more, I find it strange that yards were not built/refurbished at a greater speed especially after every state's renunciation to total war. The same applies to other warmaking related industries... even in the periphery (especially the TC which was the closest to an IS state if there was one in 3050)

[glitterboy2098]

could be they were concerned with concealing that they had them..after all, if the rest of the sphere knew the taurian's had warship production yards, you can bet the Davions would have tried harder to invade. the Taurian defenses are not perfect.. they rely heavily on the rest of the IS deciding there isn't anything in the TC worth struggling that much over. because if anyone put a serious effort into it (like say, 4th succession war levels of activity), the TC would fall..

[RunandFindOut]

Actually going by the first periphery book Taurian defenses were built on, "we have so many dirty fission nukes our piss glows in the dark.  And we're just waiting to use them, so who wants some?"  Before later FASA started changing their tune the TC was defended by the fact they packed the orbitals of all their major worlds with more nukes than Earth during the Cold War and had a policy of invade us and get nuked, win and we nuke ourselves to deny you anything useful in the rubble left behind.