What If: Victoria War during the Capellan Crusades

[Arkansas Warrior]

Rereading Historical: Wars of the Republic Era has me thinking: What if Amanda Hasek had been patient enough to bide her time?  What if the Capellan March had waited for the CCAF to attack the Republic again, as she knew they were building up for*, and had sprung the Victoria offensive only after the CCAF was engaged with the RAF?  Likewise the Andurien-Oriente Offensive launches while Capellan troops are preoccupied with the Republic.  Without the canon Victoria War, there might still be MAF involvement in the Capellan attack, or at least Magistracy forces garrisoning Capellan worlds.  How do you think things go down?

I can't help but think that it would've led to more success than the canon Victoria War, and probably more success for the RAF than they had in the actual Capellan Crusades.







*Well, she knew they were sneaking troops to the RotS border.  Given their history of wanting to reclaim Capellan worlds, it seems like she could've guessed.

[Nightgaun7]

Well the Andurien-Oriente offensive was essentially "How can we chalk up another win for the Caps?" If anything, Oriente should probably have opportunistically attacked Andurien...

It depends on just what's going down on all three fronts. If the Caps get into a big brouhaha with the RAF, and then the FWL and the AFFS jump in, then they might have some issues. Do the RAF and Oriente commit warships to the action? The timeline of the FWL fleet's disintegration is unclear; you've got to decide what they've got and when and how they use it. And so forth.

It's definitely possible for the Cappies to take a lot more of a beating than they did.

[Deadborder]

The problem is that without the Victoria war, the Capellan Crusades would have likely occurred earlier and played out differently. The Victoria war exposed some of the CCAF's secret stockpiles, as well as forcing them to use said stockpiles to keep their units running (Case in point the number of times the MAC regiments were supposedly functionally destroyed). Similarly, the Victoria war created the rift between Sun-Tzu and Daoshen that the Crusades effectively ended.

The timing of the Crusades was forced by Sun-Tzu's ill health and desire for a symbolic 'ascension', even though the CCAF was still replenishing its hidden reserves from the losses they suffered during the Victoria War. Conversely, while the Victoria War was more driven by Angela Hasek's personal ambitions, IIRC the timing was also based on political circumstance in New Avalon.

[Arkansas Warrior]

The problem is that without the Victoria war, the Capellan Crusades would have likely occurred earlier and played out differently. The Victoria war exposed some of the CCAF's secret stockpiles, as well as forcing them to use said stockpiles to keep their units running (Case in point the number of times the MAC regiments were supposedly functionally destroyed). Similarly, the Victoria war created the rift between Sun-Tzu and Daoshen that the Crusades effectively ended.

The timing of the Crusades was forced by Sun-Tzu's ill health and desire for a symbolic 'ascension', even though the CCAF was still replenishing its hidden reserves from the losses they suffered during the Victoria War. Conversely, while the Victoria War was more driven by Angela Hasek's personal ambitions, IIRC the timing was also based on political circumstance in New Avalon.

See, I don't consider that a problem at all.  If Hasek doesn't jump the border in 3101, Sun Tzu doesn't have to rebuild and can launch his Crusades earlier.  I can see Hasek being patient, but only so much.  It's hard to see her waiting until 3111.  On the other hand, without the Victoria War, The Liaos might have been ready by 3102-03.   They had already been massing troops on the Republic border in 3101, and it's hard to see those troops hiding there for very long.  If, say, the Liaos jump the border in late 3102, then about the time the RAF is ready to counterattack, say early 3103, Hasek jumps the border...Liao could have a real mess on their hands.

[PsihoKekec]

Considering that Capellans were already moving troops towards RotS border and this perceived weakness was part  of reasoning to launch the offensive, it's possible that war was only months away. Once CCAF forces are committed to fighting against RAF, they can't be just pulled out of the line and sent to Davion front, thus giving AFFS troops time to destroy the garrisons and dig in, with the only source of reinforcements being MAF and troops on FWL border, making eventual Andurien incursion more successful. CCAF is thus forced into three front war, where it can't sufficiently reinforce neither theatre of operations, resulting in severe mauling, considerable territory loss and Daoshen scheming harder for his eventual revenge.

[JadedFalcon]

Kinda agree on the notion of a quagmire.

The party is still likely to get crashed by the entire MAF, like they did in the Victoria War. The Victoria War cemented Daoshen's reputation and without that, Sun Tzu would still have unchallenged control over the operation. Without Daoshen's antics, Naomi doesn't have the motivation to hold back like she did in 3111.

The big game-changer is probably Harrison Davion. If he caves to intimidation to support the Repos, adding federal Davion troops to the mix really puts the Confederation in a bind.

[Nightgaun7]

The big game-changer is probably Harrison Davion. If he caves to intimidation to support the Repos, adding federal Davion troops to the mix really puts the Confederation in a bind.

If they're jumping into a three-way attack on the CC, it would be stupid for Harrison to not devote federal troops to curbing the CC's expansion for a time.

[JadedFalcon]

If they're jumping into a three-way attack on the CC, it would be stupid for Harrison to not devote federal troops to curbing the CC's expansion for a time.

There isn't anything to suggest that Harrison would want to get into a war with the Confederation, it's Amanda Hasek that's itching to invade. Harrison seems to prefer the status quo, so he'd want to avoid invading the Confederation and only send troops to aid the Republic on the world they claimed.

Harrison faces the dilemma of weakening his authority at home if he lets Hasek act without even consulting him, or lose face abroad by withholding support from one of his nation's closest allies. If he plays it wrong, he'd could end up in another war with the Combine should the Sandovals decide there's a precedent to pull the same trick.

[Arkansas Warrior]

If Hasek troops were to run across some of Liao's hidden warehouses, and recognize them for what they are, it might help draw Harrison in.  Show him that Liao isn't playing by the rules he is, and maybe he'll be made to understand that he can't expect everyone else to be nice and needs to act.  In canon they did find some warehouses, but don't seem to have recognized what they were.

[Colt Ward]

I do not know if Harrison could have stayed out as much as he may have wanted to . . . in this theoretical Amanda piled in when the CCAF got bogged down with the Republic.  Letting Amanda take large chunks of Liao territory without AFFS oversight gives them a great deal of independence and might have the Capellan March courting the notion they did not need the rest of the FedSuns.

Basically, if Amanda started to profit off it too much he has to be shown to leading while putting the Capellan March leadership in their subordinate place.  Your looking at something like the reasoning of Hammerfall.

[PsihoKekec]

If Hasek troops were to run across some of Liao's hidden warehouses

Didn't they discover two of them?

[Arkansas Warrior]

Didn't they discover two of them?

If Hasek troops were to run across some of Liao's hidden warehouses, and recognize them for what they are, it might help draw Harrison in.  Show him that Liao isn't playing by the rules he is, and maybe he'll be made to understand that he can't expect everyone else to be nice and needs to act. In canon they did find some warehouses, but don't seem to have recognized what they were.

Like I said.

[ajcbm]

So what? ALL the Noble Houses stored mechs during this time. The Liao simply stored a LOT more. Finding warehouses isn't going to alarm Davion since they are doing it too.

[PsihoKekec]

However these are caches on border worlds which, signifies offensive posture. You don't put caches of strategic material so close to border, unless your intention is to use them to supply your invasion. Cold War equivalent would be putting tank storage within artillery range of NATO/Warsaw pact border, fine if you plan offensive that will sweep enemy units from the vicinity of the said storage and will need close storage to replenish the losses and keep the momentum going, bad if you need it for defense, as it can be overrun or blasted by artillery.

[Arkansas Warrior]

Actually:

The rebuilding of the demolished commands was aided by finds on Jacson and Victoria.  Strange warehouses of factory-fresh 'Mechs, tanks, fighters, and battlesuits were found on the two non-border worlds.

Still, the fact that it's noted as "strange" pretty clearly points to it being out of the ordinary.  At any rate, Harrison was probably the biggest believer (outside the Republic) in Stone's disarmament initiative.  I really doubt he had the AFFS packing warehouses full of factory-fresh units.  At most, maybe replacing old mech in line commands with fresh ones, rotating those used machines to March Militias, and retiring the oldest hand-me-down March Militia machines to boneyards.

[Nightgaun7]

I mean, all of the Capellan's neighbors had to essentially totally ignore everything they were doing for them to even get as far as they did...so it might change his mind in an AU, but if it does you probably want everyone else to pay attention too.