Suppose... The Ice Hellions did invade in 3000ish?

[Maingunnery]

The thing is if the Hellions get found out it will probably trigger a civil war in the Clans

Only if they are discovered before they leave, afterwards every Clan will too busy preparing to follow them.

[SCC]

The (hard core) Crusaders, yes, Blood Spirits and Wardens would likely declare Trials of Annihilation on the Invaders

[Maingunnery]

The (hard core) Crusaders, yes, Blood Spirits and Wardens would likely declare Trials of Annihilation on the Invaders

Trials of Annihilation are rare, it is more likely they will simply use attrition through trails on whatever sacrificial Hellions were left behind.
The Hellions that have gone to the Inner Sphere will have a head start and any Clan that wasn't informed will not be prepared to immediately move sufficient forces.

I would not be surprised if Clans that were informed or flexibility prepared will be following the Hellions with a delay of 6 months. And the Clans that have been completely unprepared might arrive with a year of delay.

[monbvol]

Oh I have no doubt once found out the Wardens and Crusaders will finally start duking it out and also do their best to follow the Ice Hellions to the Inner Sphere.

The only variable is how much lead time will the Ice Hellions get.

[Wolf72]

I just don't the think the Hellions would have the longevity to get to far.  Your basic 3025 weapons still work, and with the preference of lighter/faster mechs the Ice Hellions would have a fairly significant glass jaw.  They always seemed like they would bite off more than they could even manage ... like my pet ferrets when they attempted to drag my boots under the couch; they were strong and capable but not able to get the job fully done.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Yeah, if the Hellions weren't already known as Clan Temper Tantrum, they'd probably have been nicknamed Clan Didn't Think This Through.  They'd have some initial success, but they'd quickly start running short on munitions and repair parts with no way to recoop their loses except via salvaging IS machines.  And at that point, they'd probably lose most of their advantages.

[monbvol]

Well somehow despite reading Liam's Ghost's declaration that the Ice Hellions are just abjurred but allowed to go anyway I still think the only change to my initial response is that the inevitable conflict between the Wardens and Crusaders that comes from this will be delayed for a while.  Depends really when the chain of HPG stations that the Dragoons used to report back were established(HPG messages transmit quite a bit faster than ships can pony express back reports).

I will assume that for the purposes of this thought experiment that all happens off screen and any follow up invasions are so far removed that the Ice Hellions are on their own then.

The main variables are:
-What all do they send.
-What the immediate plan is as I doubt they have a fully developed plan beyond "Invade the inner Sphere!"
-Who blinks first.  Inner Sphere panicking about functional Warships(which I don't think will happen until the Hellions get close to something actually important) or the Ice Hellions getting frustrated at their lack of progress(which I don't think will happen until they have carved out a pretty sizable occupation zone and the Inner Sphere starts going all Zap Brannigan Big Book of War on them).

Despite that I'm fairly confident that while they can carve out a fairly sizable occupation zone no matter what they send they will eventually get bogged down.

[Liam's Ghost]

You shouldn't take how I had the clan council handle the Ice Hellions too seriously. I made that decision so the Ice Hellion's invasion could go off without a major hitch for the purposes of the campaign. I don't think its the only possible solution, or even necessarily the most likely.

It'd be a boring campaign if the Ice Hellions never made it to the Inner Sphere.  ;)

[monbvol]

Oh indeed there is actually little doubt that they will make it.  What with jumps being impossible to trace and they would have at least a few days head start over everyone else.

Which I do think makes my initial assessment the most realistic.  It is mostly a question of timing.  I can see the other Clans not starting off on their Crusader vs Warden civil war and Clans wanting to get in on the action until the Ice Hellions report back what they found waiting for them which I would give a year to year and a half since I'm not sure the HPG chain is in place yet.

[Maingunnery]

Will they establish an occupation zone or corridor?

[Daryk]

Better question: why would they set up an occupation zone/corridor?  If Terra is the goal, just go there...

[Daemion]

And why would this Clan go along with that plan? They'd have to be Crusader to not immediately blow the whistle and it's likely that any Crusader would want in on the Invasion.

Diamond Sharks! And, most likely some sort of transfer of assets deal. The Hellions would almost likely be pulling a full move, taking probably a small cadre of key techs and scientists along to get their new batch of conquered subcastemen up to speed and making replacement facilities.

[monbvol]

Better question: why would they set up an occupation zone/corridor?  If Terra is the goal, just go there...

1.  Terra only seemed to be a goal later on.

2.  The Clans don't think like that.  There was an enemy in front of them that they could do battle with to gain glory and spoils.

[Daryk]

Ah, I thought it was always the goal.

[monbvol]

As far as I can tell taking Terra as the end goal is like Liam's Ghost says, something they didn't agree on until Operation Revival.

[Maingunnery]

As far as I can tell taking Terra as the end goal is like Liam's Ghost says, something they didn't agree on until Operation Revival.

Well they do need a goal, and Terra is a good candidate:
- Symbolic value
- 'Good' industry
- Not next to the Periphery

[monbvol]

True enough that they need some sort of goal.

[JadedFalcon]

Holding Terra does seem like an important part of reforging the Star League, at least from a Clan perspective.

For the Hellions' problems with the other Clans, it's about winning trials of refusal, and how bad those odds are stacked against the Hellions.

[Daemion]

Well, if the attitude of the, then, Hellion leadership is a problem, you could always have both leaders killed and create replacement leadership that isn't quite as berserker in forethought.

This always begged the question for me of how you 'role play' a faction, because I'm helping run a 5th Succession War set-up, and having factions react to certain events is important in determining what conflicts start up after the fact.

If you're really up for it, I suggest gaming out a couple different scenarios. Take a force, run the gauntlet with them. Then, depending on how things fare, look at facing down the Hidden Com Guard in taking Terra by surprise. Consider that some of the 'simulations' the leaders will consider. 

Since they had to send in the Dragoons in the canon timeline, what are some of their worst fears that they might plan for? It had to cross someone's mind the potential idea that they could arrive to find what's left of the Inner Sphere in a state of advanced Tech far beyond what they currently have.

And, that begs the question - were the Hellions simply invading the Inner Sphere? Or were they looking to investigate the state of the Inner Sphere before 'heading home'?

[McKenna]

There's always a monkey wrench in the game play that no one ever thinks about in a scenario like that though. The players. Players have the free will to react and play how they see fit in any given situation, so your scenario may not end up how you expect it will, or even how you wanted it to no matter how you plan it.

I agree that you should play the scenario out and see how things go, but if you are after a specific outcome or set of outcome variables, then make it perfectly clear from the outset that there should be no monkey business. Have clearly defined variables, like a choose your own adventure style of play to guide your players on.

Otherwise it could go any which way.... including loose.  :P

[Sir Chaos]

We also have to consider how little the Clans, including Clan Ice Hellion, know about the Inner Sphere.

Remember, they thought a five regiment mercenary outfit with top-of-line Star League equipment and six WarShips of its own would be perfectly inconspicuous!

Their last somewhat reliable intel on the strength of the Successor States was from the 2780s. They´ll have no idea how far these guys nukes themselves back towards the Stone Age.

So, never mind how the Ice Hellions would actually fare against either against the Lyrans or the Combine - consider how strong an opponent they´d have to think they were going to go up against? I don´t think that, even with copious amounts of overconfidence on the Ice Hellions´ part, they would assume they could actually conquer their way through the Inner Sphere on their own. Move through uninhabited systems to Terra, snatch Terra and hold it against all comers... possibly. But not an Operation Revival style general invasion on the Inner Sphere.

[Terminax]

I could see the Hellions being able to conquer the Bandit Kings. Maybe. I think that's being generous truthfully. The FedCom or the Dracs would eat them alive.

[Jaim Magnus]

I could see the Hellions being able to conquer the Bandit Kings. Maybe. I think that's being generous truthfully. The FedCom or the Dracs would eat them alive.

There is no FedCom in 3000, but I take your point.

The Hellions could conquer a large swath of territory, but they'd lose it just as quickly after over extending themselves.

[Sir Chaos]

There is no FedCom in 3000, but I take your point.

The Hellions could conquer a large swath of territory, but they'd lose it just as quickly after over extending themselves.

That, or they throw one of their famous tantrums when the population won´t submit quietly, and go full-on Turtle Bay on a few places.

[monbvol]

Move through uninhabited systems to Terra, snatch Terra and hold it against all comers... possibly.

Except no one invades like that and requires a Clan to do something particularly unClan like.

[Terminax]

FedCom, Lyran Com - whichever. The Ice Hellions aren't a major Clan and any House should be able to handle them. The more the Hellion take, the easier to deal with them is.

[Daemion]

They don't even have to necessarily sneak through uninhabited systems, either. Unknown fleet just passing through.  With the state of the Inner Sphere as it is, there would be nobody to stop them from hopping from system to system.  They don't get into trouble if they don't land.

Of course, the Hellions wouldn't know that right off the bat.

In fact, hitting the bandit kingdoms for intel and establishing a beachhead is probably the first smart start. From there, they could parade through the Inner Sphere on their way to Earth PrimeSol 3Terra.

That, alone, would actually make for an interesting story.  The Star League Army returned, is hopping from system to system not hiding who they are.  As potential saviors of humanity, if they come under a more direct flag, people might be more open to accepting them, until they learn about what they have planned for society.  I could see direct bids and machinations trying to sway the newcomers to one side or other almost early on.

[Terminax]

That, alone, would actually make for an interesting story.  The Star League Army returned, is hopping from system to system not hiding who they are.  As potential saviors of humanity, if they come under a more direct flag, people might be more open to accepting them, until they learn about what they have planned for society.  I could see direct bids and machinations trying to sway the newcomers to one side or other almost early on.

Except you're talking the Ice Hellions here... the bratty ADD riddled Lord of the Flies SLDF. No way that can go right. No way.

[monbvol]

And a Clan passing up a chance for glory and honor when there is an enemy in front of them to fight?  Unthinkable in this time frame.

[GoGo Yubari]

Depends really when the chain of HPG stations that the Dragoons used to report back were established(HPG messages transmit quite a bit faster than ships can pony express back reports).

Such a HPG network did not exist afaik. They actually jumped out to meet with the guys and didn't keep in regular contact. It would have been way too traceable, too (esp. considering all the assets ROM threw at the Dragoon mystery).