Natural Aptitude Gunnery/Piloting vs. Gunnery/Pilot skills

[BATTLEMASTER]

If you were to choose between making a 4/5 pilot 3/4, or giving that same pilot both Natural Aptitude Gunnery/Piloting skills, which would you go with?  If there are any statistics, please share.

[monbvol]

IF I were at home I'd have a spreadsheet to link to that breaks it down.

Short version the Natural Aptitudes are worth more than the increase to 3/4 easily.  They're not exactly the same as 2/3 but what you can reasonably expect from them would make the 4/5 about that good.

[SteveRestless]

is this just a once-off scenario or a campaign?

If you have the chance for advancement definitely go for the natural aptitudes, they'll make what follows all the smoother.

[BATTLEMASTER]

I was thinking about this in terms of a one-off scenario where we can spend points to upgrade pilot skills or add SPAs.

[monbvol]

I'd say the disparity between the two options means even for a pickup game getting the natural aptitudes are still better investments than going to 3/4.

[JASON9]

Won't make a new topic as the question i wanna ask is nearly the same.
I have 2 questions to ask
I have a pilot at 0/0, will she benefit from natural aptitude as she have Both Gunnery and Piloting Natural Aptitude ?
Will the above mention pilot be better at targeting if her mech have Targeting Computer?

[Maelwys]

Well, under ATOW, Natural Aptitude simply lets you take the test on a 3d6 roll, pick the best two, as opposed to roll 2d6, so that's going to work no matter what your skill level is. Likewise the Targeting Computer is going to function the same, it will just negate a modifier to you roll.

[monbvol]

*nod*

Natural Aptitude doesn't actually modify the to hit numbers at all.  It alters what you're likely to roll by a not insignificant margin as the range of possibilities are still the same.

Here is the spreadsheet I did up to analyze the effectiveness of 3d6 keep the two best, normal 2d6, and as a final point of comparison 3d6 keep the two worst.

It also contains some math I was doing to figure out how likely an ammo bin in an arm was to be hit by a floating through armor critical assuming somehow it was the only possible critical versus non-floating through armor critical hits to CRD-3R Crusader's side torso ammo bins, an engine being taken out by 3 criticals in a single roll, and a gyro being taken out by two hits in a single roll.

All in all it reveals some pretty interesting things about the mechanics of floating versus non-floating and exactly how useful Natural Aptitude is.

[Iron Mongoose]

I can't improve on the commentary for natural aptitude, but as for targeting computers, I find they can be the very most dangerous in the hands of the very best pilots.  For a poor pilot, the main advantage is a one step up in accuracy.  For a hyper elite pilot, aimed shots become very viable, even against fast targets or at medium range against slow targets, and very tough mechs can be brought down very quickly.  Against IS XL engines a TC and a good pilot can spell death in just a turn or two.  So putting this pilot in your nastiest TC equipped mech becomes a really tremendous idea.

[JenniferinaMAD]

If I may ask a tangentially related question:

Does Natural Aptitude: Piloting apply to physical attack rolls? They use the Piloting Skill, but are they true piloting rolls?

If yes, I'd absolutely go for the 4 NA/5 NA over the 3/4. If no...it depends on the mech.

[Paul]

Does Natural Aptitude: Piloting apply to physical attack rolls? They use the Piloting Skill, but are they true piloting rolls?

Natural Aptitude applies to any use of the related Skill.

If yes, I'd absolutely go for the 4 NA/5 NA over the 3/4.

Yep, it's massively better. Crudely speaking, it can be looked at as a +2.25-ish bonus, though it's a little different. You can still roll three 1's, while an actual +2 bonus would make a result of anything less than a "4" impossible, ignoring modifiers.

Edit: Forgot to include: Of course, it does help some with uAC/RAC jams, and MASC/supercharger failures, since those events don't look at modifiers, they look at what the dice end up being, and you're far less likely to find three 1s (so you resolve to a 2+1 result, avoiding failures) than you are to find two 1s.

Good thing the skill doesn't apply to crit rolls, or possibly even more powerful, to-hit rolls. On three dice, you can arrive at 3 different hit locations (thus picking the ones that will hurt the most), while 2's and 12's become much more common end results as well.


Now, 3/4 vs 4/5 with *only* Nat/App Gunnery, and nothing on the Piloting end, that might be worth a moment of consideration, but I'd likely still take that. Unless my Mech was heavily invested in physical attacks.

Paul

[idea weenie]

Well, under ATOW, Natural Aptitude simply lets you take the test on a 3d6 roll, pick the best two, as opposed to roll 2d6, so that's going to work no matter what your skill level is. Likewise the Targeting Computer is going to function the same, it will just negate a modifier to you roll.

Short version:
2d6 has an average roll of 7
3d6 keeping higher of the two has an average of 8.458333 (yes, I made a spreadsheet with all 216 possibilities of rolling 3d6, then keeping only the higher 2 dice)

So whatever the point cost of decreasing an attribute by 1 is, Natural Aptitude Fit should cost 1.46 times as much.

If it costs 10 pts to reduce an attribute by 1, and Natural Aptitude costs 16, don't purchase  it.  At 15 pts, you shouldn't go for it, but it is close.  If NA costs 14 pts, go for it.

[JenniferinaMAD]

Short version:
2d6 has an average roll of 7
3d6 keeping higher of the two has an average of 8.458333 (yes, I made a spreadsheet with all 216 possibilities of rolling 3d6, then keeping only the higher 2 dice)

So whatever the point cost of decreasing an attribute by 1 is, Natural Aptitude Fit should cost 1.46 times as much.

If it costs 10 pts to reduce an attribute by 1, and Natural Aptitude costs 16, don't purchase  it.  At 15 pts, you shouldn't go for it, but it is close.  If NA costs 14 pts, go for it.

That seems somewhat simple for an analysis? How does the distribution across the available range compare?
I.e. is the ratio of the average result to extreme results the same?

If you find yourself frequently needing 8s, this calculation appears correct. But what if you more frequently need 7s or 9s? Are those equally more likely with NA than with -1 skill?

A 4/5 pilot for example would make many pilot rolls at 6s (hit for 20+ damage) or 5s (get up after falling from 20+ damage). So at least NA/P should possibly be costed for that dice range?

[idea weenie]

That seems somewhat simple for an analysis? How does the distribution across the available range compare?
I.e. is the ratio of the average result to extreme results the same?

If you find yourself frequently needing 8s, this calculation appears correct. But what if you more frequently need 7s or 9s? Are those equally more likely with NA than with -1 skill?

A 4/5 pilot for example would make many pilot rolls at 6s (hit for 20+ damage) or 5s (get up after falling from 20+ damage). So at least NA/P should possibly be costed for that dice range?

If one set of dice has an average roll of 7, and the second set of dice has an average roll of just under 8.5, then the second set of dice are more likely to roll over a 6 than the first set.

I gave the average roll to compare.  Here is the result showing how many times each number will occur assuming 216 statistically equal rolls.  The result is the number rolled (from 2-12), the column for 2d6+1 is the number of times rolling 2d6 and adding 1 would result in that number (max of 12), and the column for 3k2d6 is for rolling 3 dice, keeping the highest 2.

Result	2d6+1	3k2d6
2	0	1
3	6	3
4	12	7
5	18	12
6	24	19
7	30	27
8	36	34
9	30	36
10	24	34
11	18	27
12	18	16

If you need a 12, then you are more likely to get it with 2d6+1 than you are with 3k2d6 (18 chances vs 16).  3k2d6 also has 1 chance in 216 to roll a 2, while 2d6+1 has no chance.  For the remaining rolls, 3k2d6 is better than 2d6+1.  Below is a table showing the TN you need on the dice, the other two columns are how many times you can beat it out of 216 with 2d6+1, and with 3k2d6:

TN	2d6+1	3k2d6
3	216	215
4	210	212
5	198	205
6	180	193
7	156	174
8	126	147
9	90	113
10	60	77
11	36	43

For every roll except 2, 3, and 12, you are better off rolling 3k2d6.  Using your examples, 2d6+1 has a 72% chance of rolling a 7, while 3k2d6 has a 80% chance.  For rolling a 9, the percentages are 41.67% vs 52.3%.  For 5 they are 91.67% vs 94.91%, and 6 they are 83.33% vs 89.35%.

If anyone wants, I can put the entire list of rolls in a spreadsheet and attach it.

[Hellraiser]

If you were to choose between making a 4/5 pilot 3/4, or giving that same pilot both Natural Aptitude Gunnery/Piloting skills, which would you go with?  If there are any statistics, please share.

Not even a contest really.  NA all the way.
The only time improved skills would be better is if your sniping at long range & actually manage to turn a 13 into a 12.

[SCC]

@idea weenie your analysis ignores Ultra weapon jams, where buying up the attribute doesn't help but NA does

[monbvol]

*nod*

NA actually changes what is rolled even if it doesn't change the range.  Improved skill doesn't change what is rolled or the range of possibilities, just the target number.

[JenniferinaMAD]

Thanks, idea weenie!

I think I follow that, but I'm still not sure that the conclusion that NA is 1.43 times as good as +1 skill is necessarily accurate. The peak benefit of 3d6k2 seems to be the 8 or 9 TN points. But the 5 and 6 points, where a non-melee mech would make the majority of its pilot rolls at 4/5, have a lesser difference.

[JASON9]

So that mean my 0/0 pilot with natural Aptitude for gunnery and piloting will be the best pilot in my defense team. She currently piloting a mech with targeting computer.

[Maelwys]

Well, yes. At 0/0 and rolling 3d6 drop the lowest intstead of just 2d6, your pilot isn't going to get much better (assuming you're talking about TW skills, and not ATOW). The only way to get better would be to incorporate ATOW attribute modifiers to the mix, or include quirks on the vehicle.

[Daryk]

The AToW rules for tactical combat deliberately drop the attribute modifiers...

[Paul]

The AToW rules for tactical combat deliberately drop the attribute modifiers...

Nope.
The conversion from ATOW to TW drops them.
But when playing within the confines of ATOW, you can get some truly disgusting target numbers. With the intent to provoke players in to doing Cool Things.
Players, or bad guys...

Paul

[Daryk]

True, I should have specified the "AToW rules for converting to TW", though I'll note that was the context I thought the OP's question was asked within.

[guardiandashi]

what it really comes down to with the ignore attributes when doing atow to TW conversions is to adjust where "epic" is.

if you allow for effective target numbers below zero, it can break the system used for standard battletech limiting just how "good" an individual pilot can be. it can make movement mods trivial, aiming shots a big shrug etc.

[idea weenie]

I think I follow that, but I'm still not sure that the conclusion that NA is 1.43 times as good as +1 skill is necessarily accurate. The peak benefit of 3d6k2 seems to be the 8 or 9 TN points. But the 5 and 6 points, where a non-melee mech would make the majority of its pilot rolls at 4/5, have a lesser difference.

True, but the benefit of NA is that it covers nearly all the target numbers, instead of just giving a bonus to one TN.

what it really comes down to with the ignore attributes when doing atow to TW conversions is to adjust where "epic" is.

if you allow for effective target numbers below zero, it can break the system used for standard battletech limiting just how "good" an individual pilot can be. it can make movement mods trivial, aiming shots a big shrug etc.

At that point scenarios become of "We need to stop that Clan heavy star from breaking past, you're the only one in their way."  Or "prevent that WoB spotter from getting to that ridge, or they'll provide targeting for the nuke launchers".

@idea weenie your analysis ignores Ultra weapon jams, where buying up the attribute doesn't help but NA does

Please see attached

[monbvol]

To be honest idea weenie I'm not sure why you're using 2d6+1 as the point of comparison as that is not a good methodology.  It actually changes what is rolled which improving skill does not do.

Case in point if a 0/0 rolls a 2 even if the TN is low enough to not result in a miss an Ultra still jams.  Since a 0/0 is just as likely to roll a 2 as a 8/8, well it seems really unsound in methodology.

Versus a pilot who has Natural Aptitude, they actually roll 2s far less than a 0/0.  Even if they are rated 4/5.

[idea weenie]

To be honest idea weenie I'm not sure why you're using 2d6+1 as the point of comparison as that is not a good methodology.  It actually changes what is rolled which improving skill does not do.

Case in point if a 0/0 rolls a 2 even if the TN is low enough to not result in a miss an Ultra still jams.  Since a 0/0 is just as likely to roll a 2 as a 8/8, well it seems really unsound in methodology.

Versus a pilot who has Natural Aptitude, they actually roll 2s far less than a 0/0.  Even if they are rated 4/5.

The comparison was between Natural Aptitude vs a 1 pt bonus to the skill.  To simulate that i was adding 1 pt to the 2d6 roll.  But the attachment above has 2d6, 2d6+1, and 3k2d6

[monbvol]

By that methodology though you are implying what is being rolled changes, not the Target Numbers.

Which actually does bring up the biggest argument in favor of increasing skill rather than picking up Natural Aptitude.  Natural Aptitude can not help you if the Target Number goes up to 13 but increasing the skill means it is harder for the Target Number to go above 12.

[Nebfer]

Well, yes. At 0/0 and rolling 3d6 drop the lowest intstead of just 2d6, your pilot isn't going to get much better (assuming you're talking about TW skills, and not ATOW). The only way to get better would be to incorporate ATOW attribute modifiers to the mix, or include quirks on the vehicle.

Sniper gunnery skill?
halves range mods...