Suppose... The Ice Hellions did invade in 3000ish?

[monbvol]

There was a HPG chain eventually established.  I just can't remember when it was.  It was certainly there by Operation Revival and the Jihad.

HPG transmissions are actually not traceable in the manner you suggest as in this case no Comstar owned and operated HPGs would need to be used.

[McKenna]

Except you're talking the Ice Hellions here... the bratty ADD riddled Lord of the Flies SLDF. No way that can go right. No way.

That's putting it mildly. The only thing you have to remember is that while they are the bratty ADD riddle Lord of the Flies SLDF. They have the weapons to make any tantrum they throw nasty for the recipients. (ie civilians and the under armed populace) The Ice Hellions may not go Full Turtle Bay, but I wouldn't put it past them to use Scorched Earth tactics when they don't get what they want. They aren't exactly the most "stable" of the Clans....

[Daemion]

Is this truly a Clan trait for the Hellions, or is it just the people in power at the time we read about them? Remember, there was a brief civil war fought among their numbers over going/not going.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

All the books I've seen have indicated that the Hellions have always been Leeroy Jenkins leap-before-you-look types.  Their overspecialization on light, fast units means that they couldn't really afford to be deliberate or reactive.

[Archangel]

A lot of these replies seem to imply that the Ice Hellions were taking most (if not all) their touman to invade the IS, but was that the plan?  It seemed to me that the IH Khan only intended to take Alpha Galaxy to the IS.

[Terminax]

If it was only one Galaxy that went... pop goes the weasels!

[jklantern]

If it was only one Galaxy that went... pop goes the weasels!

Really, a good summary of what happens to the Hellions in ANY timeline.   :))

[massey]

Let's suppose they go with all their forces.  The Khan quietly kills the saKhan when she voices her displeasure with the decision to invade.  The Khan makes this big show about "I'm going to invade anyway" in front of the Grand Council.  Remember that his goal is to trigger a full scale invasion by all the Clans, not just to go it alone.  I don't think they'll be sneaky about it.  They'll make a big public show of prepping for invasion.

The Dragoon compromise was a good one.  The point that the Wardens made that the Clans know nothing about the Inner Sphere, and don't have any idea what they'd be running into was correct.  It was also persuasive enough to get a bunch of Crusader clans to agree to pass their dreams of reforming the Star League on to another generation of warriors.  Everybody realized it was a smart idea.  Except the Ice Hellions, of course.

The thing is, it didn't stop being a smart idea.  With the Grand Council already convinced to send the Dragoons, I don't think the actions of Clan Jump the Gun will change that.  Nobody wants to attack the Inner Sphere and find out that they have Star Trek technology.  I think they let the Hellions go, as long as they vow not to reveal the location of the Homeworlds.

Well, they kinda let them go.  Even the Hellions will know that they're about to lose all their holdings on the Clan Homeworlds.  So they'll pack up to move all their stuff that they want to keep. Maybe they'll leave a bunch of labor caste people behind (can always get more of those in the Inner Sphere), since they'll be doing this move faster than the Ghost Bears did.  I think they load up and take everything they can.  During this time, they're going to be the target of everybody who wants to claim Ice Hellion stuff.  Trials of Possession would be very common.  You've got a bunch of fully loaded Jumpships with all kinds of equipment and supplies.  An enterprising Clan officer could try and seize those ships in an aerospace trial.  "Gimme that!"  As the Ice Hellions start moving out, they're going to have greedy Clans nipping at their heels.  Once they've moved most of their forces out from the Homeworlds, then the rest of the Clans will fight over the territory.

So now it's a one-way trip for the Hellions.  I think they head straight for the Inner Sphere, probably slamming head-first into either the Draconis Combine or the Lyran Commonwealth.  One of the things they're going to want to do is to seize worlds and get a new population base.  They'll do that pretty easily at first, and the response the Inner Sphere can muster at this point in time will be insufficient to dislodge them.  If the Hellions only wanted to take 20-30 worlds, they could take them and hold them no problem.  But you know they won't.

They'll grab a few worlds to act as their new homeworlds, and then they'll go on a rampage, trying to fight the biggest and strongest enemies they can find.  They'll tear through the forces of whichever Successor State they hit, at least for a while.  The other Great Houses will know something is going on, but they don't have the resources at this point to really take advantage of it.  They may claim a few border worlds, but that's about it.  This isn't the 4th Succession War, nobody is really equipped to launch a full scale invasion yet.

The Hellions will quickly get into a position where they can't replace their losses.  They'll fall for a few dirty tricks.  Somebody will get assassinated.  A few Clusters will be destroyed in an ambush.  The civilian population will rise up on different planets and revolt.  Some of the "new labor caste" members will smuggle a nuke onto a warship.  Things like that.  Of course the Clan will respond with the grace and equanimity for which it is known.  I expect many war crimes.  But ultimately they have the problem that they can't get new soldiers yet, and they can't replace their machines.

They'll probably deal a near-fatal blow to whichever kingdom they hit.  But they won't survive.  In the end, whichever Successor State gets hit is going to look like the Capellan Confederation post-4th SW.  They'll have lost worlds to their neighbors, and they'll have lost a lot of their best units to the Hellions.  But they'll have a huge amount of salvaged Clan tech.

All the Clan warriors probably get killed off, or they see that it's a lost cause and turn tail to run back to Clan space.  I think most of their warship fleet hightails it.  They'll soon be in a place where they don't have any ground forces to get them food.  So they leave to find a very angry bunch of Clanners back home.  The Clan civilians who are left behind will happily integrate into the Great House.

Instead of the Helm Memory Core, the Ice Hellion Invasion is probably the spark that ignites the Inner Sphere's technological revolution.  It would function as both the Helm Core and 4th SW in the setting.  The rest of the Clans will study the reports from the shattered Ice Hellion forces that manage to make it back home.  They'll snicker to themselves as they acknowledge that the Hellions managed to do one thing right -- they were a very effective scout force.  Then they'll start to plan the real invasion.

[Sir Chaos]

Instead of the Helm Memory Core, the Ice Hellion Invasion is probably the spark that ignites the Inner Sphere's technological revolution.  It would function as both the Helm Core and 4th SW in the setting.  The rest of the Clans will study the reports from the shattered Ice Hellion forces that manage to make it back home.  They'll snicker to themselves as they acknowledge that the Hellions managed to do one thing right -- they were a very effective scout force.  Then they'll start to plan the real invasion.

And the Crusaders are going to have a really good argument to start the invasion soon: The Clans cannot afford to wait until the Inner Sphere has upgraded their technology to the level of what the Ice Hellions left behind for them to study.

[Maingunnery]

Assuming that the house or terra that they hit defeats them. By that time the IS didn't have the knowledge or infrastructure to use that salvage for reverse engineering.
They would have to create new institutions, while ComStar will likely try to shroud them. And a lot of the salvage will be forced into the fight until only scraps remain.   

What is more likely that, if the full force of the Hellions is used, is that they will take over a group of worlds. If this group is at the Periphery or Terra itself, will depend on their own decisions (arguments can be made for both sides). The other houses at that time aren't in a position for quite some time to really do anything against them, the presence of warships and a technological edge, makes it too risky.
But we can see the Houses beginning to invest in warships again.

[mikecj]

TAG'd

[Archangel]

Let's suppose they go with all their forces.  The Khan quietly kills the saKhan when she voices her displeasure with the decision to invade.  The Khan makes this big show about "I'm going to invade anyway" in front of the Grand Council.  Remember that his goal is to trigger a full scale invasion by all the Clans, not just to go it alone.  I don't think they'll be sneaky about it.  They'll make a big public show of prepping for invasion.

At which point the rest of the Grand Council would declare them traitors and a Clan would be chosen to absorb/annihilate them.  Open defiance of a GC decision could never be tolerated.  That is, after all, the official reason why the not-named Clan was annihilated.

[JadedFalcon]

At which point the rest of the Grand Council would declare them traitors and a Clan would be chosen to absorb/annihilate them.  Open defiance of a GC decision could never be tolerated.  That is, after all, the official reason why the not-named Clan was annihilated.

The Wolverines broke with Clan culture, they weren't off to conquer Terra and reform the Star League in the image of little Nicky's fuzzy animal club.

And with the this occurring during what's been termed as the political century, it's not out of character to see some clever Jaguar and Falcon Khans happily abjuring the Hellions then calling on a crusade to get to Earth first. It would play right into their hands, much like a Comstar jumpship showing up in the Kerensky cluster. Hell, they could even get some Warden groups on board with stopping the Hellions.

[SCC]

Assuming massey's scenario, which is probably the only workable version, you only have to ask who they hit, when they hit, and how hard they both get mauled.

The who is easiest, the two Great Houses nearest to Clan space are the Lyran Commonwealth and the Draconis Combine, and if they back-track along Exodus Road you can add the Federated Suns. Now the Lyrans are well know as a bunch of merchants, and the FedSuns didn't acquire they martial excellence until after the Exodus, which leaves the samurai of House Kurita.

So how bad is the damage? Well the Hellions are presumably invading with their full 5 Galaxies, and while that's more then any single Clan Invaded with in canon, at least at first, and they will be facing pure IntroTech enemies, there's the fact that the Hellions favor Light 'Mechs. This is a massive disadvantage for a Clan force facing IS opponents because Light's generally don't have long range weaponry, which means that they will lack the range advantage the Clan's had in cannon, plus the weight disparity. So they'll be lucky to carve out something as big as the Smoke Jaguars did in canon. As for how badly the DCMS is damaged? Well I'll assume that a regiment plus supporting armor is enough to deplete a Cluster, so the DCMS is down 19 to 22 regiments.

Which leaves when, anyone got any suggestions? Best I've got is the year Helm would be discovered.

[phoenixalpha]

As for how badly the DCMS is damaged? Well I'll assume that a regiment plus supporting armor is enough to deplete a Cluster, so the DCMS is down 19 to 22 regiments.

The problem with this is that, in this time frame, the DCMS are very honour bound and prefer 1 on 1 combat to the detriment of themselves. Sure they are better pilots than the average IS MechWarrior - but their insistence on gladiatorial-type "honourable" combat plays right into the strength of the Clans which are superior to your IS counterpart. 5 Galaxies would pretty much wipe out the DCMS - albeit there would be sod all left of the Hellion forces at the end of it.

Imagine an intro tech Phoenix Hawk (which in the early 3000s is still a very potent front line mech) facing off against... say any light clan mech. The Clan mech is going to be faster, hit harder, hit further. The Phoenix Hawk will be toast. Put a Panther up against a mech almost half its weight... any clan 20 tonner and the result most times is going to be the same. Dead Kuritan.

[marauder648]

And there's another thing to consider. Lets assume that the Hellions hit the Combine. A certain Hanse the Fox Davion WILL take advantage of this and we could see the Combine suddenly be at the centre of a feeding frenzy.  And might the IS not even know what the hell the Hellions are? They could assume that they are some mad raiders or brigands at first, until news spread that it really really wasn't.  And as was said, the rest of the Clans are probably following rapidly on the Hellions heels.

So you could have the exhauted Hellions having mauled the Combine get absorbed by another Clan for their foolishness, and then the rest turn up and start their own offensives.  This is with an utterly depleted Combine military, as well as I would assume the Lyrans and Suns going MINEMINEMINE! and grabbing as many Combine worlds as they can or having the Rasalhague independence movement starting up and so forth.

[Liam's Ghost]

I'm pretty sure Hanse is still in the academy in this time period.

[Sir Chaos]

there's the fact that the Hellions favor Light 'Mechs. This is a massive disadvantage for a Clan force facing IS opponents because Light's generally don't have long range weaponry, which means that they will lack the range advantage the Clan's had in cannon, plus the weight disparity.

Not so much. Weight, yes, that will be a problem. But firstly, Clan weapons have an inherent range advantage over introtech weapons - such as the Clan ER medium laser with 15 hexes compared to the standard medium laser at 9 hexes.


Secondly, Clan lights and faster mediums *DO* carry long range weapon, even long range by Clan standards.

The bulk of the Ice Hellion forces will probably consist of a mix of Fire Moths, Mist Lynxs, Kit Foxes, Battle Cobras, Vipers and Ice Ferrets, (the Arctic Cheetah and Adder have not been introduced yet) perhaps with a few Coyotls thrown in as well - probably relatively few Kit Foxes and Battle Cobras given their comparably low speed. Except for the Fire Moth, each of these have configurations with some solid, high damage long-range weapons - Mist Lynx C, Kit Fox Prime, A or B, Battle Cobra Prime or B, Viper B, Ice Ferret Prime or B, Coyotl Prime or A.

They´re going run rings around any mechs tough enough to take a few hits from gauss rifles and Clan ER PPCs, and go through any mechs fast enough to keep up with them like a knife through warm butter.


Though admittedly they´ll face problems in terrain too rough to use their speed to full advantage, especially if it´s also broken enough to neutralize their superior range.

[Rainbow 6]

Worth considering, if they follow the exodus road back to the inner sphere they'll hit the Outworlds Alliance first, which would net them some intelligence on the Combine and Suns and a small number of factories etc that the they can start upgrading immediately to replace losses.

[phoenixalpha]

I doubt they would follow the exodus road. My thoughts would be that they'd make a beeline for the IS, straight as possible - fastest, easiest, and if there was a possibility of any other clan chasing ... they'd be one or two steps ahead at least.

[mikecj]

I agree, that kind of deception doesn't seem to be Hellion trait.  Unless one of the hellion founders had a grudge against a particular successor state...

[Maingunnery]

I think that they want to go to Terra as fast as possible, and maybe ToP (raid) some stuff on the route.
Because conquering all the planets on route is just too slow and if they are all in then they don't need a logistical line back to the HWs.

[Talen5000]

A lot of these replies seem to imply that the Ice Hellions were taking most (if not all) their touman to invade the IS, but was that the plan?  It seemed to me that the IH Khan only intended to take Alpha Galaxy to the IS.

It doesn't matter.

What does matter is that the Hellions have revealed the existence of the Clans. That's not a genie that can be put back in the bottle.

Those Clans who wanted to invade will now do so, on the basis that it doesn't matter. The damage is done, no matter what happens to the Hellions.

Bringing one Galaxy to the IS also implies a direct strike at Terra. That'll be enough to get the other Clans moving.

The Clans aren't going to wait for the Sphere to come calling and the Hellions aren't going to hide who or what they are.

If the Hellions invade, the Dragoon compromise is dead. The Crusaders need nothing else to justify the invasion and the Grand Council doesn't have enough of a vote to prevent them.

The Hellions may get censured in some form but if they go in, the rest of the Clans will follow.

[Sir Chaos]

It doesn't matter.

What does matter is that the Hellions have revealed the existence of the Clans. That's not a genie that can be put back in the bottle.

Those Clans who wanted to invade will now do so, on the basis that it doesn't matter. The damage is done, no matter what happens to the Hellions.

Bringing one Galaxy to the IS also implies a direct strike at Terra. That'll be enough to get the other Clans moving.

The Clans aren't going to wait for the Sphere to come calling and the Hellions aren't going to hide who or what they are.

If the Hellions invade, the Dragoon compromise is dead. The Crusaders need nothing else to justify the invasion and the Grand Council doesn't have enough of a vote to prevent them.

The Hellions may get censured in some form but if they go in, the rest of the Clans will follow.

Agreed.

And they are NOT going to wait until the Hellions are defeated. They already know the Hellions are going to be defeated in short order - remember, their last available strength estimates made them think 5+ regiments and half a dozen warships would be an inconspicuous mercenary unit.

[marauder648]

They might well have a few Gargoyles and some Canis too, both are fast enough.

[SD501st]

They might well have a few Gargoyles and some Canis too, both are fast enough.

Gargoyles were the favoured Assault Mech's of the Hellions, but... Canis?  :o
That's a 80 ton 3/5/3 Coyote Mech, introduced in 3058... are you sure that you weren't thinking of the Executioner?

[marauder648]

oops! Yes I had a derp

http://www.sarna.net/wiki/Lupus

is what i mean :D

[massey]

Agreed.

And they are NOT going to wait until the Hellions are defeated. They already know the Hellions are going to be defeated in short order - remember, their last available strength estimates made them think 5+ regiments and half a dozen warships would be an inconspicuous mercenary unit.

I think this argues against them going.  If 5 regiments and some warships is "inconspicuous", then the entire Ice Hellion Touman will just be a blip on the radar.  There has to be at least some suspicion that the Ice Hellions are going to slam straight into a brick wall and never be heard from again.

All the Clan forces put together wouldn't hold up to even a single Successor State, pre-1st Succession War.  The Clans have no idea how developed the Inner Sphere is at this moment.  It could be like reconquering the Pentagon Worlds, where they meet very little organized resistance.  Or the Inner Sphere could be just as advanced as the Clans, or even more.  They just don't know.  As I read it, the original calls for invasion (during the time period we're talking about) were for all the Clans to attack.  They only pared it down to 4 later on, when they realized how weak the Inner Sphere had become.  They wanted to make it more sporting.

But circa 3000 AD, the Clans were cautious about how strong the IS was.  They sent Wolf's Dragoons thinking that they'd blend in (they were wrong about this, of course).  The Ice Hellions' forces aren't that much bigger than Wolf's Dragoons.  Yes, they've got advanced tech, but if the Inner Sphere is as strong as the Clans were predicting, the Ice Hellions will just appear to be a large force of pirates from the Periphery.  Just because they've got a weird blue ferret painted on their mechs doesn't mean that the IS will figure out who the Clans are and where they came from.

Even the Smoke Jaguars eventually agreed that sending the Dragoons made sense.  Just because a Clan might classify as "Crusader" doesn't mean that they want to throw themselves into a wood-chipper.  They still want a scouting force to see how strong their opponent is.  If the Hellions jump the gun, you might have one or two other Clans who want to follow up right behind them, but a lot are going to want to wait and see first.  The most powerful Crusader Clans are the Falcons, the Bears, and the Jaguars.  The Bears are definitely going to want to wait and see what happens.  The Falcons are die-hard Crusaders, but they also want to be on the winning side.  I don't think they'll be ready to abandon their holdings to run off on what might be a suicide mission.  Not unless everyone else is willing to go as well.  They're also political animals, and they won't want to reduce Crusader support in the Grand Council by letting a bunch of people run off to do their own thing.  That leaves the Jaguars (who are bloodthirsty enough they might do it anyway) and a bunch of smaller, weaker Clans.

I think the rest of the Clans just reach an agreement with the Ice Hellions that they'll be allowed to go as long as they don't blab who the Clans are or the location of the homeworlds.  Don't come in screaming "we're the heirs of Kerensky!"  Or just play it off like you're the last of the survivors so the Inner Sphere doesn't suspect there are still a lot of Clans out there.  And then the Grand Council sends along some extra jumpships to act as observers.  You want to see what happens when the Hellions hit the Inner Sphere.

So the Ice Hellions hit, exhaust themselves and get absorbed into the Inner Sphere, and the observers report back that the IS is way weaker than anyone previously believed.  But now you're down one Crusader Clan to vote to invade.  The IS is clearly not a threat to attack the homeworlds, so now some Clans are not too worried about it.  I think you have a hard time convincing the Grand Council to vote for a full invasion, at least until the Outbound Light shows up.

[Talen5000]

I think this argues against them going.  If 5 regiments and some warships is "inconspicuous", then the entire Ice Hellion Touman will just be a blip on the radar.  There has to be at least some suspicion that the Ice Hellions are going to slam straight into a brick wall and never be heard from again.

The Dragoon compromise made sense.

The Clans needed intel, and the limited role IntelSer was allowed to play wasn't giving them enough.

But many Clans wanted to attack anyway. That is why the Dragoon compromise was reached. It enabled the Wardens to say that SOMETHING was being done and it was too sensible an idea for the Crusaders to dismiss it even though it was simply a delaying action.

The Hellions, regardless of what they brought, or what their fate may be, blows that arrangement out of the water.  They could rush in and be destroyed...they could bring a single Galaxy and enact a direct strike at Terra. They could play it smart...wipe out the forces on the worlds they bypass, make use of their WarShips, but establish a space based logistics network with mobile factories and refineries rather than establish an onworld presence, and make use of abandoned SLDF bases for repair, rest and refit. Or they could squander their strength by trying to hold worlds they conquered.

This is, after all, around 3005 when new 'Mechs were kinda rare within the IS and many were held together with spit and bailing wire. OK...an exaggeration but we can't really say how well the Hellions would do because it depends on the tactics they would use and the numbers they would bring.

The important impact is on the rest of the Clans. Regardless of the Hellions, the secret is out. The Clans won't care that the Inner sphere might learn nothing. They might learn everything.

The Hellions might very well be censured. But they won't just be "let go"....not least because the Hellions in this scenario aren't asking. The Clans will have to assume the worst case scenarios - that the Inner Sphere will learn all about them. Or that the Hellions will take Terra and become ilClan.

If the Grand Council were to authorise some sort of "go as long as they don't blab" deal, other Crusaders will ask..."Why them and not us?" and will go anyway. In short...such a deal is impossible because it voids the Dragoon Compromise.

If they don't authorise such a deal, the Crusaders will say "The invasion you didn't want is here anyway. You cannot stop them. And we will be joining them. Stay here if you want. One of us will be ilClan and all of you will be fodder."

A Hellion invasion of the Inner Sphere may or may not be stopped. It may result in the Hellions becoming ilClan. It may not.  It will, however, result in multiple Clans attacking the Inner Sphere, at most two years later. Most likely, within six months of the Hellions act becoming known.

Even if the scenario you posit is true, that also prompts an invasion because the prize is Terra and the ilClan.

[Daemion]

Gosh! It's too bad they don't do joke products anymore. This would have been fun to see some fine individual at Cat Labs tackle.