Author Topic: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....  (Read 5396 times)

Nov. Col.

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Say you're Belle Lee and you have a bunch of high level commanders from all over the Inner Sphere (including Clanners) and you misjump to another universe where news of the Amaris Coup just broke out and you're relatively close to Kerensky. 

He and his staff believe your story, but what advice do you give them? Are there technical details you think could help end the war sooner?

Pat Payne

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #1 on: 03 August 2017, 19:07:34 »
Say you're Belle Lee and you have a bunch of high level commanders from all over the Inner Sphere (including Clanners) and you misjump to another universe where news of the Amaris Coup just broke out and you're relatively close to Kerensky. 

He and his staff believe your story, but what advice do you give them? Are there technical details you think could help end the war sooner?

First off, thanks for neatly sidestepping the "Hitler Paradox" (wherein you go back in time to kill everyone's favorite genocidal maniac before he takes power, only because you killed him in the past you had no reason to go and kill some obscure Austrian derelict you'd never heard of and so you, well... didn't) by making it an accident. That makes things with time travel so much less messy than "I went into my TARDIS to prevent the Succession Wars".

The problem with your thought experiment is that by the time of the Coup, there was little that Kerensky could do to act on any proffered advice that would change the outcome that materially. Maybe some of the (pardon the expression) peripheral events, such as making sure that Kerensky sat harder on the Steiners when they made their play for the Rim Worlds Republic.

But the situation at the time was one where Kerensky was out at the rim of the Inner Sphere, with his troops heavily engaged in the Periphery Uprisings. No matter what advice you could give, he'd still have to fight his way through (although you could possibly give him a Big Book Of The Amaris Civil War or something that would help his forces avoid some of the more nasty battles). Once the Liberation of the Hegemony was underway, there's little advice that you could give that would circumvent the SDS arrays over major planets or crack open Castles Brian.

One thing that might have helped would be explaining to Kerensky, and having him pass it to Minoru Kurita, about Drago Kurita's ultimate fate. Knowing that his nephew was going to be brutally murdered in the last days of the war might have stiffened his resolve to actually throw the weight of the DCMS in on the side of the Star League, thereby possibly ending the war that much quicker.

Empyrus

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #2 on: 03 August 2017, 20:31:50 »
The Civil War will happen in some form. Events have too much inertia to be avoided at this point. Time is a rapid that can be, at best, redirected slightly, but effects of such are exceedingly chaotic.

One thing that might have helped would be explaining to Kerensky, and having him pass it to Minoru Kurita, about Drago Kurita's ultimate fate. Knowing that his nephew was going to be brutally murdered in the last days of the war might have stiffened his resolve to actually throw the weight of the DCMS in on the side of the Star League, thereby possibly ending the war that much quicker.
Kuritans could be honor-bound to assist. This certainly would hasten the war but this will have other effects as well. Namely, what will the other Successor States think? Will they think Kurita will aim to become the new First Lord by helping the SLDF? If so, will they join the battle in order to secure consideration? If so, will the Great Houses start Succession War right after the Liberation or even during it? Or might they see an opportunity to settle other scores while Kuritans help the SLDF? Might Amaris offer something to the Great Houses to get allies?
Whatever happens, things get wild post-Liberation. I wonder what Nicholas thinks if he hears what an Exodus would... could create? Would Kerensky decide not to leave and cause something similar to the Empires Aflame?

Daryk

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #3 on: 03 August 2017, 20:48:23 »
At the very least, he wouldn't make Blake the Minister of Communications...

pheonixstorm

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #4 on: 03 August 2017, 21:31:19 »
Depends on far along things were with Amaris it may have been possible to disable, destroy, or otherwise prevent Amaris from gaining control of the SDS network which leads to a vastly easier assault once Kerensky is done bashing the periphery.

Another possibility would be to negotiate in secret with the periphery lords and pass the fight off to the house lords then hit the Hegemony worlds that much faster.

There is also the potential that the RWR would have been spared some of the devastation they went through and not left to the predation of House Steiner.

Colt Ward

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #5 on: 03 August 2017, 23:16:40 »
Yeah, I think you are more likely to bring on a Empires story . . . for a couple of reasons.

First, Kerensky will know the he does not spare the IS war by leaving.

Second, at least in the first few battles where Kerensky uses his special intel the timeline will not deviate greatly.  Which means he needs to figure out when is the best time to start exploiting that information- the old WWWII Coventry example.  For instance IF he can use the knowledge to keep the SLDF from taking such huge losses which would allow them to secure and protect the Hegemony from the Houses.  Additionally . . . preserving the strength of the SLDF makes it less likely that Kerensky will become war weary- the Exodus was really his big retirement move to get away from the neighbors up in the cold Northern snows and find a sunny beach in Florida.

Besides the out of time knowledge, he will likely have access to out of time weapons.  Elemental Battle Armor, Clan spec weapons, Jihad era inventions . . . IF he can secure a place to build these weapons in enough numbers to be decisive it can keep the SLDF from taking as many losses as they did.  But it would have to be hand in hand with the use of the intel.  Once he starts making changes from the history his visitors know- which includes tech as well as actions, then its a race against the clock before all the knowledge becomes useless.

Third, we can avoid the whole ComStar involved tech crash & war pushing.  IF Kerensky does not leave, then ComStar does not become the sole power on Terra.  This is not to say the Hegemony might not be engaged in covert attacks to destabilize the Houses as Kerensky rebuilds the government, but you do not get a 200+ year campaign of blowing up labs and killing scientists.

Also, Conrad Toyama will slip & fall getting out of the shower.

Finally, the question is . . . how/when did Alexandr acquire Jennifer Winson?  Long live First Lord Jennifer Cameron, restorer of the Star League . . .
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #6 on: 04 August 2017, 00:23:22 »
...you mean like in The Final Countdown where you have Imperial Japanese A6M Zeros vs US Navy F-14 Tomcats?

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Colt Ward

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #7 on: 04 August 2017, 00:41:25 »
Yes, its not going to be that level of tech difference . . . but if Aleksandr got a copy of Clan DHS, Gauss Rifles, ERPPCs and Inner Sphere Plasma Rifles, RAC/5s, X-Pulse Lasers with other Jihad goodies along with the out of time intel, it can be a decisive edge when he uses it.  But the information has a limited lifespan, so you want to exploit it at the same time as you use the technology.  If they rushed the technology into production and introduced it onto the battlefield BEFORE they used any of the intel then they would change history and make their knowledge useless b/c Aramis forces would react in different ways.

So it comes down to when is the most critical point in time to use the new tech and the out of time info to change history for Kerensky's benefit?

Sort of like Turtledove's 'Guns of the South' where AKs were introduced late in the civil war when it would be the thing saving them.
Colt Ward
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #8 on: 04 August 2017, 09:05:11 »
I'd probably give Kerensky some intel on Amaris' force deployments, a heads-up in advance about the possibilities of SDS subversion and Comstar's pseudo-religious threat, to let him run a more effective tactical and strategic campaign....then provide one bit of false info to have him get ambushed and taken out by some of the last of Amaris' forces before he can exert too much political influence and turn into the absolute nut-case he becomes later.  In essence, help him do what he does best, then stop him from doing what he does badly.

No Clans, no Comstar, and no technological crash half-way back to the stone age, just a "normal" set of succession wars by the Great Houses, with all of the "usual" military research and its commercial spin-offs potentially leading to a technological and economic leap forward in the following century.

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #9 on: 04 August 2017, 13:06:37 »
"So Alex, you're gonna win the war. It's gonna be an ugly butcher's bill. Then the House Lords are gonna bust up the Star League. You're gonna take your ball and most of the SLDF and head deep into the periphery and the follwing wars are gonna result in a whole lot of people dying. Meanwhile your son takes charge, builds a warrior culture that comes back to the Inner Sphere and results in even more deaths.

Maybe you might want to stick around and find a way to get the House Lords to not slaughter so many folks.

Pretty please?"
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #10 on: 04 August 2017, 13:23:54 »
"Oh, and that Blake guy?  He eventually loses his mind and on his deathbed turns the Ministry of Communications into a cult dedicated to suppressing technology.  So really, please stick around..."

pheonixstorm

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #11 on: 04 August 2017, 15:43:04 »
Oh look, Kerensky. *bang* Now lets see how things turn out with that crazy fat man running the show...

Nov. Col.

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #12 on: 04 August 2017, 16:15:30 »
I was thinking if the idea of Pocket WarShips and knowledge of what was at Nirasaki might change the way the SLDF fought the SDS on the way to Terra, and then of course not abandoning the Inner Sphere.

theagent

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #13 on: 04 August 2017, 17:26:45 »
Say you're Belle Lee and you have a bunch of high level commanders from all over the Inner Sphere (including Clanners) and you misjump to another universe where news of the Amaris Coup just broke out and you're relatively close to Kerensky. 

He and his staff believe your story, but what advice do you give them? Are there technical details you think could help end the war sooner?

That's a really tough question.  I know some excellent ideas have been already suggested (except 1...*slaps pheonixstorm upside the head, then throws him in the brig*...traitorous Amaris supporter... -- just kidding).

The question is probably going to be what kind of information is going to be most helpful to him.  Since Kerensky has just been informed of the coup, that makes it too late to do anything to help the Loyalist units that were stuck on Terra or most of the other original Hegemony worlds.  So the question does become what kind of information he could use, & how to implement it.

First off, I'm not sure how much technical knowledge would actually help him, or would even be available to give him.  Sure, you might have a few examples of Clan tech on board your vessel...but unless this is some high-level meeting between Clan Diamond Shark/Sea Fox & potential Clanner/IS buyers, the chances of having the hard technical data needed for manufacturing the advanced Clan tech is going to be lacking.  It's also going to take a long time to try to reverse-engineer the Clan-level technology.  I don't have my books handy, but IIRC there's a note in the newer House Davion manual about how Davion engineers had reached the level of technical knowledge to be able to build Clan-level armor & equipment...but were holding off on trying to work on mass-production because it would have resulted in widespread economic disruption (no details given, but I imagine we're talking extended construction downtime for retooling, massive layoffs, massive upticks in unemployment, massive drop in tax revenue collection combined with massive increases in Dole/social program payouts seriously hampering the government's ability to meet its financial obligations, etc.).  I could maybe see being able to adapt some of the Inner Sphere technology that hadn't been developed yet -- ER Medium/Small Lasers would probably be easy given the availability of ER Large Lasers, for example. And I'm sure Kerensky's forces would have loved to have access to C3 technology, or (depending on when your leaders came from) items like Plasma Cannons, MRM launchers & MMLs, etc.  But again, you're talking about needing time for retooling & disseminating the technology to your forces, when the biggest problem facing the SLDF during the coup wasn't losing their technology edge (since the Amaris units now had full access to Royal-level manufacturing & technology) but rather actually getting their forces in-system & on-planet to take out the Republic's forces.

Probably there were 2 key items of intelligence that would greatly help out Kerensky:

1.  That the Amaris forces had taken control of the SDS units.  It's one thing to suspect that your enemy has control of the system defenses; knowing that they have them, combined with knowing the capabilities of those units & their deployments, would give you at least some advance warning, if not a potential tactical advantage.  For example, they might have decided to go with tactics similar to those used by Admiral Lawrence to liberate New Dallas in 2773 (i.e. false-flagging captured Republic WarShips to seize control of the SDS command stations at the main jump points to allow more SLDF forces to enter the system).

2.  Having more information about Republic deployments.  Having nearly exact knowledge of your enemy's unit deployments -- specific units, unit compositions, manpower levels, etc. -- makes it a whole lot easier to determine how many forces need to be sent into a particular fight.

3.  IMHO, probably the most important:  perhaps being able to change your overall strategic plan.  For example, with more knowledge of how Republic operations had gone, it might have made more sense for Kerensky to focus on liberating Hegemony worlds first instead of hitting the Rim Worlds Republic.  Liberating worlds like New Dallas or Carver V, for example, would have provided some nice morale boosts for the SLDF, as well as demoralizing the Republic.  If nothing else, I would considered the possibility of focusing on prime worlds -- major supply bases, manufacturing facilities, etc. -- as taking those planets not only is a blow to the Republic from destroying their units, but denies them the material benefits & gives the SLDF much-needed manufacturing & supply capabilities.

pensiveswetness

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #14 on: 04 August 2017, 17:37:43 »
Oh look, Kerensky. *bang* Now lets see how things turn out with that crazy fat man running the show...

OMG , LoL. I've never considered a story line where Amaris remains the victor after the fact?

pheonixstorm

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #15 on: 04 August 2017, 18:25:38 »
Well, w/o Kerensky you either get Empire Aflames again or Amaris??

There is another question on that front though. How long until the other houses get tired of him and what would happen to the SLDF? A dead general, a despot, and a great many of the SLDF troops from different houses? Does the SLDF fall apart and split up and join their home faction or do they continue the fight against Amaris under a different commander?

Colt Ward

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #16 on: 04 August 2017, 21:01:23 »
theagent, you do have some good points- so in order . . .

#1- You are right, its not like the whole Clan Diamond Shark team trying to improve the ER series lasers or DHS would be on the jumpship.  But knowing something is possible is half the problem in developing it- and tech demonstrators like Clan DHS, cERPPC, cERML, Plasma Rifles and MMLs allow the SL's R&D establishment to get to work .  From what I read, it was over 10 years getting to the point to hit Terra.  The Star League's R&D was not in the same position as the IS's when the Clans returned in 3050- they had not had over 200 years of a faction killing off scientists and destroying labs.  Now the best labs and minds were probably stuck in Amaris territory, but we know places like Niops existed for R&D.

#2-  While some of the strategic information does not really expire there should be a point where the future knowledge influenced events too much so that history is changed.  Remember the people on that jumpship are not likely to have specific information (such as Lib of Terra text) but know the broad outlines so it is a matter of when what they know can make the biggest difference to the course of the war.

Let's use the Final Countdown again as a example.  Say the Enterprise contacted Hawaii to warn them of a pending attack . . . how many historical details could they give them?
-December 7th in the AM.  What would be the exact time they hit the airbases & port?  When/where were they first sighted? 
-Your radar station is going to pick them up.  Which one?  How far out?  What bearing?  What time will they be detected?  How many show up?
-Minisubs are going to be detected outside the harbor before the attack.  When?  How far outside the harbor?  How many?

Its all the tip of the iceberg, and those people are thrown back to a more recent event than 3070s being thrown back 300 years to 2766.  I think perhaps the post-war details they can share might mean more to Kerensky . . . which means Empires Aflame and Conrad Toyama slips getting out of the shower.
Colt Ward
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Iron Mongoose

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #17 on: 04 August 2017, 21:37:58 »
Well, as you point out, the Nimitz from Final Countdown might well have had WWII veterans (Kirk Douglas enlisted right after Pearl Harbor) while Belle Lee is ten generations removed from the fall of the Star League, but they also have computers with millions of times more power, and the idea that there may be a few hundred e-books about Kerensky and Aramis in a huge multinational task force is pretty reasonable.  So I think that Kerensky would be more than likely to get some serious hard intel.

Again as said, there are two areas this helps. 

Early on in the war, you can score a few quick cheap victories on the back of this intel, and it can shape your over all grand strategy knowing the balance of power.  Now, after a few crippling losses the enemy would doubtless have to react, so it might not take too much time off the war, but every little bit helps, and success breeds success so I suppose if you really hit hard early you might be able to snowball to victory. 

And of course, we now know that the Exodus is a terrible idea, at least in the form it actually took; it's not impossible that Kerensky might convince himself that forewarned, he might be able to change things to prevent both the 1st Succession War and the Exodus Civil War, and thus live out some sort of terrible Greek tragedy.  But, in any event it will make a change.

I think the thing to remember, as we allude above, is that it's still the same Kerensky, the same Minoru, the same Blake, and so on.  So unless you arrange the suitable accidents, the post war is bound to unfold along familiar lines.  Some form of the 1st Succession War is probably unavoidable, and that Kerensky will want to try and sit it out is also probably unavoidable. 
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Colt Ward

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #18 on: 04 August 2017, 22:00:07 »
When my unit was packing up to go to Iraq we brought TMs, other official documents, lots of paperwork, and personal books/laptops.  Unless someone had it as light reading (and it was not mentioned) no one had a book covering the Kursk campaign, the invasion of Normandy or Inchon landings.

BT computers are not that powerful- future of the 80s after all- and while they could have had a lot of data transported with them, it would be CURRENT data- 3070 maps, OOBs, intel reports on WoB, com protocols for allied forces, unit supply books, and tons of forms requisitioning 'paper, rolled, each sheet 3in x 3in' for the commanders to sign off on.

But you are right, the campaign against Aramis will happen as it will, and the results are likely the same- its why I suggest the information gets used to keep Kerensky from getting war weary.  The Succession War MIGHT be coming . . . it all depends on how (or apparently IF) Kerensky presented Jennifer Cameron as the next Star Lord.  I think it would come down to those who support Jennifer Cameron (& Kerensky or De Chevalier) and who thinks they have the better claim . . . perhaps a split like the FedCom & Kapetyn powers.  Blocking the Lyran land grab into the RWR allows Cameron & K&DC to play that card later on, either in trade to the Lyrans or to help rebuild the Hegemony.
Colt Ward
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Iron Mongoose

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #19 on: 04 August 2017, 23:51:06 »
Now, I've never been in the military, nor on a deployment, so I can't speak to what the average trooper might bring.  But, between thousands of officers and men in a big strike force, the idea that no one brought some light reading on the most significant military campaign (prior to the one they were then taking part in) seems far fetched.  You've got to figure there are at least enough who have made a study of the campaign, and chances are at least a few officers who are studying Kerensky's campaigns for inspiration.  As to how powerful the computers being used in 3070 are... if memory serves we had a whole thread on that that never reached consensus, though I think it's no question that it's a lot more than the USS Nimitz.

One other thing I didn't consider that just came to me: it's a multinational force, and probably a pretty high end one.  That means a lot of warriors descended from prominent families, who went to top academies, and who can go back to their own capitols and convince their reviered past leaders to join the fight.  The prompt only assumes we can convince Kerensky, but we know that he wanted to convince the House Lords.  With a few future Davions and Kuritas and Mariks on hand (or members of lesser houses) then just maybe that might be the thing that could radically change the future.
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #20 on: 05 August 2017, 17:01:58 »
Remember that the ships went back and a lot of ships have a library. When I was in the navy on the Enterprise, the largest section was navy history.

The crews of the junpships probably have all kinds of e-books.

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #21 on: 06 August 2017, 05:12:09 »
Given the size of the force we're talking about there's probably all kinds of teaching/training material around, and some of that will almost certainly cover the coup.

Also keep in mind that some of the people doing this jump are now stateless. While any members of the Clans and the RoTS are the obvious ones, at this time Andurien was still part of the CC, something that could start a war between the FWL and the CC if the group included a significant number of Andurien troops

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #22 on: 06 August 2017, 23:53:36 »
Wasn't there a movie like this about the USS Nimitz and the dude from seaquest?
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #23 on: 07 August 2017, 03:06:51 »
Yes... Steel Raven mentioned "The Final Countdown" up thread...

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #24 on: 07 August 2017, 06:40:48 »
The Final Countdown would be the perfect tie-in for this scenario 
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #25 on: 07 August 2017, 07:01:11 »
Yes... Steel Raven mentioned "The Final Countdown" up thread...

The question is...who else has read that novel instead of just watching the movie?

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #26 on: 07 August 2017, 07:56:40 »
Yes... Steel Raven mentioned "The Final Countdown" up thread...

Wasn't sure if that was the same thing, it was late and i was not firing on all cyllinders, i apologize
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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #27 on: 07 August 2017, 08:02:23 »
The question is...who else has read that novel instead of just watching the movie?

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #28 on: 07 August 2017, 12:41:06 »
Actually, about half of the real damage can be avoided just by making sure that some communications technician with terminal medical problems stays well enough medicated that he can't talk.....or gets the wrong medication on one occasion.  Kerensky leaves, but the phone company never turns into a religious cult, and new technology is able to keep pace with the destruction of the old, while the Succession Wars burn out.  If/when Kerensky's descendants return, the Inner Sphere will meet them on even terms, or perhaps give them a nice demonstration of what even shinier toys can do.

glitterboy2098

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #29 on: 07 August 2017, 14:07:13 »
remind me.. did kerensky have any representative of the Cameron family under his command at the time? even if just a cadet branch?

because it seems to me that step one is "get a 'gone to hell' succession plan in place should the hegemony and star league lose its ruling family entirely"

because the uptimers would know that the ruling line Cameron's are all gone at that point, even if Amaris is hiding it.. and being able to plan to elevate a lesser-Cameron, or how to pick a non-Cameron replacement, would help avoid the succession wars getting so nasty.

JadedFalcon

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #30 on: 08 August 2017, 01:36:47 »
The crews of the junpships probably have all kinds of e-books.

Imagine someone handing Kerensky and Dechavilier a copy of Kingdom of the Gypsies, showing Kerensky as a cybernetic immortal orchestrating the Succession Wars.

Hominid Mk II

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #31 on: 16 August 2017, 11:27:48 »
Remind me.. did Kerensky have any representative of the Cameron family under his command at the time? Even if just a cadet branch?

Not AFAIK. Unless Jennifer Winson was really Amanda Cameron.

Because it seems to me that step one is "get a 'gone to hell' succession plan in place should the Hegemony and Star League lose its ruling family entirely".

Because the uptimers would know that the ruling line Camerons are all gone at that point, even if Amaris is hiding it.. and being able to plan to elevate a lesser-Cameron, or how to pick a non-Cameron replacement, would help avoid the Succession Wars getting so nasty.

As the non-canon Field Manual: 2785, and a few other fanbooks set in the same AU, produced by John "Takiro" Luther and his collaborators make pretty clear, It's really not enough to have a Cameron heir. The Terran Hegemony has lost its ability to intimidate the other Member States into remaining loyal to the idea of the Star League and the other Council Lords are pretty much determined to fight each other for the First Lordship come what may. Something like the Empires Aflame AU is probably the best Kerensky can achieve, I think.

BTW, why are people having a go at poor Blake? Most of the blame for ComStar turning into a ruthless pseudo-religious cult is down to Toyama. Blake actually did a very good thing preserving the neutrality (and the very existence) of the HPG network for everybody. Knock off Toyama and Karpov, sure. Leave Blake alone... but maybe put him under surveillance  to be on the safe side.
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Hominid Mk II

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #32 on: 16 August 2017, 11:46:19 »
Imagine someone handing Kerensky and Dechavilier a copy of Kingdom of the Gypsies, showing Kerensky as a cybernetic immortal orchestrating the Succession Wars.

Hee hee!  ;D
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Nightsong

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #33 on: 16 August 2017, 13:18:52 »
BTW, why are people having a go at poor Blake? Most of the blame for ComStar turning into a ruthless pseudo-religious cult is down to Toyama. Blake actually did a very good thing preserving the neutrality (and the very existence) of the HPG network for everybody. Knock off Toyama and Karpov, sure. Leave Blake alone... but maybe put him under surveillance  to be on the safe side.

Indeed. Blake is just a figurehead/scapegoat for Toyama’s insanity, while he actually did a lot of good things to keep the Succession Wars from turning out like the Dark Age sans Clans. At least until Toyama and especially Holy Shroud I/II.

glitterboy2098

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #34 on: 16 August 2017, 13:35:51 »
As the non-canon Field Manual: 2785, and a few other fanbooks set in the same AU, produced by John "Takiro" Luther and his collaborators make pretty clear, It's really not enough to have a Cameron heir. The Terran Hegemony has lost its ability to intimidate the other Member States into remaining loyal to the idea of the Star League and the other Council Lords are pretty much determined to fight each other for the First Lordship come what may. Something like the Empires Aflame AU is probably the best Kerensky can achieve, I think.

agreed that the Hegemony would no longer be able to threaten. but part of the reason the succession wars were so brutal was the justification that they were fighting over who would be the new lord of the hegemony as well as the star league first lord. if a Cameron or even a McKenna could be put on the throne as the leader of the Hegemony, it gives the Hegemony a chance to organize and survive (especially if no exodus), and removes half the justification for fighting wars over the first lordship. you'd have a greater chance of getting the 5 major states to approach the issue with diplomacy rather than guns.

agreed that an Empire Aflame situation is your best bet, but if the hegemony can hold of the invaders, they could propose alterations to the star league concept that might mollify the others. especially if you have people from the canon 2nd star league around to advise them. implementing a separation between the positions of lord of the hegemony and the first lord of the star league for a start, and then using the voting system and term limits the 2nd SL used so that the non-hegemony lords have chances to be in power. (and then giving the periphery nations votes, so they have a voice)

Hominid Mk II

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #35 on: 16 August 2017, 13:48:59 »
Agreed that the Hegemony would no longer be able to threaten. but part of the reason the Succession Wars were so brutal was the justification that they were fighting over who would be the new lord of the hegemony as well as the Star League First Lord. If a Cameron or even a McKenna could be put on the throne as the leader of the Hegemony, it gives the Hegemony a chance to organize and survive (especially if no Exodus), and removes half the justification for fighting wars over the First Lordship. You'd have a greater chance of getting the 5 major states to approach the issue with diplomacy rather than guns.

A slightly greater chance, maybe. But it might well not be enough. The then-rulers of the DC and the FWL in particular were very ruthless and ambitious and the then-ruler of the FS not that much better. Only the then-rulers of the LC and CC really wanted to avoid war if they could, IIRC.

Agreed that an Empires Aflame situation is your best bet, but if the Hegemony can hold of the invaders, they could propose alterations to the Star League concept that might mollify the others. Especially if you have people from the canon 2nd Star League around to advise them. Implementing a separation between the positions of Lord of the Hegemony and the First Lord of the Star League for a start, and then using the voting system and term limits the 2nd SL used so that the non-Hegemony Lords have chances to be in power. (And then giving the Periphery nations votes, so they have a voice)

That might just work for the other Inner Sphere Member States. Richard Cameron and Amaris between them had stoked up so much separatist sentiment in the Periphery Territorial States that I don't think anything could have kept them in the Star League.
« Last Edit: 16 August 2017, 14:00:04 by Hominid Mk II »
Ever felt that The Powers That Were at FASA, WizKids and FanPro never gave Victor Steiner-Davion and the Federated Commonwealth a fair shake in the canon timeline? Then you might be interested in my Victor Victorious AU at

https://bg.battletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=65976.0

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Nov. Col.

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #36 on: 16 August 2017, 16:05:06 »
Empires Aflame but without Kerensky around is probably best case scenario.  FWIW I think they go after Nirasaki sooner to get the data and Pocket WarShips make a difference in the survival of maybe 100 WarShips and dozens of divisions.

Iracundus

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #37 on: 16 August 2017, 16:45:18 »
remind me.. did kerensky have any representative of the Cameron family under his command at the time? even if just a cadet branch?

because it seems to me that step one is "get a 'gone to hell' succession plan in place should the hegemony and star league lose its ruling family entirely"

because the uptimers would know that the ruling line Cameron's are all gone at that point, even if Amaris is hiding it.. and being able to plan to elevate a lesser-Cameron, or how to pick a non-Cameron replacement, would help avoid the succession wars getting so nasty.

AFAIK cadet branches of the family did survive in the main timeline, but by the time Amaris was overthrown the Hegemony was basically a devastated failed state.  Simply installing someone with a drop of Cameron blood would not have changed anything IMO without also an effective policy of rebuilding the Hegemony.  The legitimacy of the Cameron family had already been damaged by Richard Cameron, and any new Cameron ruler installed  would have had to contend with criticism of just being a puppet of whoever put them there. 

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #38 on: 16 August 2017, 19:25:54 »
Indeed. Blake is just a figurehead/scapegoat for Toyama’s insanity, while he actually did a lot of good things to keep the Succession Wars from turning out like the Dark Age sans Clans. At least until Toyama and especially Holy Shroud I/II.


Bwahahahahahahaha!  That's cute.  You obviously haven't picked up the 2nd Succession War volume.   >:D

glitterboy2098

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #39 on: 16 August 2017, 19:26:28 »
the reason the hegemony was a failed state in canon though was both lack of official leadership, and the fact that the army took off to deep space.

Kerensky took the SLDF on exodus because he had wanted to avoid a war. instead he left the hegemony to be gobbled up piecemeal by successor states facing minimal and uncoordinated resistance. which gave the successor states all of the hegemony's remaining industrial infrastructure.

with a legitimate ruler in place, and the bulk of the SLDF present to protect the hegemony, even if there are defections, the hegemony would only at worst suffer the loss of some of its border worlds, because a legitimate leader is something the Hegemony can rally around, giving it a chance to restructure and rebuild to make use of what wasn't destroyed during the Amaris coup and civil war. and if the SLDF sticks to a defensive campaign, a legetimate leader also gives weight to diplomatic efforts to achieve ceasefires and treaties.

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #40 on: 17 August 2017, 00:45:47 »

Bwahahahahahahaha!  That's cute.  You obviously haven't picked up the 2nd Succession War volume.   >:D

... Actually I just grabbed it about 8 hours after I posted that. Wow.

Colt Ward

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #41 on: 17 August 2017, 02:50:38 »
*sigh*  I understand the need to put interesting and new stuff in there . . . but really, did we have to make that big of a alteration?  or will it be blamed on 'author perspective'?  I do not have the book but you are making it sound like they wholesale changed who dove off the deep end- its why I kept saying Conrad Toyama should have had a accidental fall in the shower.
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Sir Chaos

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Re: You've just misjumped to the start of the Amaris Coup.....
« Reply #42 on: 17 August 2017, 04:00:34 »
A slightly greater chance, maybe. But it might well not be enough. The then-rulers of the DC and the FWL in particular were very ruthless and ambitious and the then-ruler of the FS not that much better. Only the then-rulers of the LC and CC really wanted to avoid war if they could, IIRC.

That might just work for the other Inner Sphere Member States. Richard Cameron and Amaris between them had stoked up so much separatist sentiment in the Periphery Territorial States that I don't think anything could have kept them in the Star League.

What if this hypothetical new Hegemony rulers disbanded the Star League instead? There would be no First Lord title to fight over.
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