• Serpent defeated
Serpent was nearly defeated and it wasn't until bulldog joined that they were able to finish the job. I think that If Osis had been taken out and replaced after asking for help any transition to another power group still would have taken time. The Jaguar would have been destroyed by the time anything official started. It wasn't but a month or so after Serpent landed that Bulldog showed up to reinforce. That amount of time is at least as long as it would have taken for another clan to decide that they would actually help if they were so inclined. I also think that had the clans helped by launching a force to the Inner Sphere to help put down bull dog that at least a part of that secondary force would have been Jaguar homeworld garrison units which would have meant easier pickings when Serpent made it to clan space. I don't think Osis asked for help until the middle of wave 3 of bulldog anyhow if memory serves. That means the job was more then half over. Any clan reinforcements would have been from one other clan tops and it certainly wouldn't have been an entire invasion force because that goes against the entire minimalist approach the clans go by. Most of Jaguar would have been destroyed regardless. Best Case scenario, serpent is defeated but the jaguar home units are no more then a cluster or so. IS jaguar units are in about the same numbers so less than galaxy of troops left with half of them being the bottom of the bottom. Any absorption would have been pointless as the other home clans would have already swept in and taken the resources and tech they wanted so no real advantage to the clan that absorbs.
What do you think would have happened next?
• A new Ilkhan chosen to head off Bulldog
o If so do you think the loss happens in the same way?
Let's say that this does happen.....Star Adder is the only home world clan that could pull it off from a numbers perspective but even then they were dealing with internal turmoil because the Burrack was not a smooth absorption. The disorganization and unrest in the warrior cast would have spelled disaster in a large military campaign.
I think the second strongest clan at the time that was of the crusader mindset was the steel viper and if by some chance they had stepped in they would have to answer to the word of blake shadow divisions. The active full scale war with clans gets dragged out for a few more months, the Star league doesn't dissolve at the conference and the word of blake and several periphery states become members.
Word of blake is posed as a hero for stopping the clan reinforcements and saving the efforts of bulldog and serpent with the added benefit that now steel viper has severe losses. The word of blake was big enough and had enough tech to take on the entire inner sphere at one time. I think 4 or 5 clan galaxies would have been a cake walk. A full commitment from all the clans never would have happened, that is the exact opposite of the way of the clans. So now there is no Jihad because the WoB are legitimized. A new task force is started around them to gather the entire military strength of the inner sphere and the periphery and wipe out the clans once and for all, all of the IS clans and take that fight straight back to the clan homeworlds and clean house there. Even if it didn't work in eliminating all of the clans, they would have certainly eliminated most of the clan forces in the inner sphere. The star league would be solidified and the WoB would be in a prime position to basically take position as permanent first lord, like house Cameron before the fall of the original league. Not only because they were the galvanizing force but as the most advanced and near largest mobile army at the time (especially after bullbog and serpent were shredded) they would become a symbol for the indomitable will of the inner sphere.
o If yes then what would happen:
The same council deadlock that brought about the Wars of Reaving?
Wars of reaving would never happen because Steel viper would be too weakened. Also the people responsible for the WoR surely would have died in their attempt to help the jaguar before being smashed by the WoB.
• If Bulldog is forced to retreat under the guns of a unified Clan coalition then what happens?
never happens because the WoB is waiting and with large scale clan reinforcements they would have mobilized. Their success would have been too good an opportunity to pass up and would have given them considerable power. Comstar had considerable power after Tukkyid which was only disrupted with the WoB split. WoB would have repeated that but on a bigger scale. Again a Clan coalition never would of happened. It isn't how they operate. It isn't even how they invaded the first time. Each clan basically ran its own concurrent invasion with only loose organization and coordination from the IlKhan. To save one of the invaders would have never been more then one clan's job and then only the clan that won the rights to absorption. Losing on such a large scale would have been seen as dishonorable and the clans have never dealt with dishonor by joining forces and working together. Even at the dawn of the clans it has always been individualized.
o Who is the new IlKhan?
Vlad wanted the job but not at that point. But with Osis gone and a new opportunity for invasion does he pass it up?
It doesn't happen, with the reveal of all the shadow divisions the dynamics of the inner sphere change greatly. No new invasion is discussed as the clans take their time to take stock and reevaluate the new threat.
o Who gets the jag OZ?
No one at this point and before the Adders can get their act together enough to take on that goal the new and strengthened Star League under the banner of the WoB launches their "operation pimp slap the clans forever"
I say Star Adder as the main force
• Keep in mind in this scenario the Spirits did not interfere in the Absorption and so the SA’s are theoretically even stronger
The Hells Horses ( then a nominal crusader) as back up
• I could see those two Clans actually working well together
Even if the spirits didn't interfere in the absorption it was not a smooth transition. Even in the actual time line, some 15 to 20 years later when the wars of reaving go down a chunk of them break off and try to reform clan burrock. Getting the new units under control enough to use effectively while handling the absorption of new territory and defending it from the trials and challenges of other clans who are trying to capitalize on the situation....yeah it takes too much time. A serpent/bulldog put down would reinvigorate the desire to invade but the Adders were never impulsive and would see that it would be foolish to attempt to do so. The vipers bitter from being kicked out by the jade flacons and then angry over losses at the hands of the WoB would definitely jump at the chance and I think they would use their status as a reserve clan to help them politic the right to do so. Even if they managed to launch a new invasion before "operation pimp slap the clans forever" went off, I think they would be a speed bump for the Star League to roll over and little more.
• The newly strengthened Spirits would then come further out of Isolation and essentially take on the canon role of the Adders. Seeking to dominate the home clans.
I sense that you like the blood spirits. The spirits have always been one of the weakest clans. Even in their isolation they were not able to hold on to very many holdings. I don't think that not interfering in the Burrock absorption actually makes them "strengthened" as much as it just makes them "not further weakened". The Adders still needed to help direct some of the energy of their Burrock soldiers, and the spirits have been the traditional target for the Burrock and makes logical sense from a tactical stand point. Restless warriors who hate these dude over here who in general are kind of weak and crappy....sure take your frustration out on them some.
I don't think the blood spirits would have ever come out of their isolation to help the jaguar. The clan that the spirits had the best relationship with was the fire mandrill and that didn't afford either party very much benefit. I read your other post and I'm having just as hard a time following your logic over there. I literally can't think of a reason that the blood spirit would break their isolation in order to help the jaguar. AND if by some chance they did and were able to defeat bulldog and serpent instead of steel viper (which I still think is way more realistic because of their impulsive nature and need to prove themselves after the smallest of insults). Blood spirit would only be further weakened from the fighting which would only lead to more harassment from the Adders. If they didn't help but for some reason spoke out about absorbing the remainder of jaguar there would be a number of stronger clans that would pose a trial of refusal against them for the rights to absorb them. About any clan has just as much right to them as the blood spirits do so why not. I think this may actually hurt them more and lead to their demise around the same time that it actually happened in the official timeline.
Thoughts?
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