IlClan timeline and contents speculation

[Empyrus]

Minor spoiler warning.

Entries here are from TRO3150 and XTRO RotS 3. Since both are a couple of years old, i wouldn't really call these spoilers, if not for the fact IlClan will almost certainly detail these events and so these can be regarded as spoilers for IlClan.

I went over TRO3150 and XTRO RotS 3 entries few months ago and wrote down everything interesting and arranged them in rough chronological order. For whatever reason, i haven't posted them despite that being the plan but fortunately i noticed the txt file with these. There may be mistakes, so don't take this as real, correct timeline.


Late 3145
-"In December of 3145, Julian Davion’s Task Force Navarre hit Menkalinan."

3146
-Republic-FedSuns pact renewed.
-Battle of Marlette.
-Ghost Bear raid on Arkab?
-Duchy of Andurien assaults Oriente Protectorate.
-January: Wolf Empire raid on Alkes
-January: Raid on New Canton by FedSuns
-February: Assassination attemps against Wolf Empire officials on conquered Solaris VII begin, last over year.
-February: Jade Falcons raid Ludwigshafen.
-April: Pirate raid on Filtvelt Coalition.
-May: Clan Sea Fox attacks Pleione.
-May: Three-way figting between Capellans, Dracs and FedSuns on Deneb Kaitos.
-September: Jade Falcons assault Ark-Royal. Fall of Ark-Royal.

3147
-FedSuns counterattacks New Syrtis, 3 month battle. Capellan terrorism devastates the planet over the year and the next.
-LCAF strikes preemptively on Valloire.
-FedSuns Operation CERBERUS.
-First Davion Guards raid/counterattack Franklin.
-Late: Kisho Nova Cat's Wendigo appears on a village on Almunge.
-April: Marian Commowealth attacks Marik worlds, including Kendall.
-May: Ghost Bear raid on Yamarovka.
-June: Julian Davion meets with FedSuns nobility.

3147-3148
-Buena Collective formed? Fighting between Buena Collective and Lyran Commonwealth.
-Campaign to recapture New Syrtis.
-Sactions on Regulus by Clan Sea Fox, Regulus dependent on Sea Fox trade?
-FedSuns raid Draconis Combine worlds.
-Captain-General Jessica Marik assassinated

3148
-Julian Davion fights on New Syrtis against Capellan invaders.
-RotS Remnant raid on Kalidasa, encouter Ryoken III-XP.
-Resistance against Jade Falcon occupiers across Donegal Province.
-Early: Jade Falcons attack Coventry, the Battle of Coventry.
-Late: Sixteenth Hastati Sentinel raid Ruchbah beyond the Wall.
-March: First Andurien Rangers fight with First Marik Protectors on unclaimed world between Duchy of Andurien and Regulus.
-July: Oriente wins Oriente-Regulus war. Regulans prepared a nuclear attack before their surrender, some forces gone AWOL with nukes.
-August 14: Joyeux Corsaire pirates raid Protectorate
-August: Deep strike on Remagen by Draconis Combine

3149
-Fighting on Addicks between the Twelfth Hastati and Fourth Dieron Regulars.
-Early: CapCon captures Hall.
-June: attack on Protectorate Arms factory on Diik by the Lying Tongue Company of the Abominari pirate band.
-June: Wolf Empire invades Dubne, RotS Remnant defends but loses and retreats from the world.

3150
-Early: Fortress Walls come down.

Unknown:
-Joint Capellan-Draconis Combine invasion on Ingress against the Republic.
-Nineteenth Battle of Hesperus II.
-Hell's Horses Operation NOYAN, assault on New Oslo.
-Jade Falcons and Hell's Horses clash on Leskovik. Alliance unraveling, tensions mounting.
-Davion counterattack on Palmyra.
-Davion operation PERCEVAL.


Notes:
-Field Manual 3145 and Era Report 3145 stop before December in '45, before the first point happens.
-I'm not sure if 19th Battle of Hesperus II is the one where Malvina Hazen was injured or if it is a newer battle that happens sometime between 3145-3150.
-I would guess Operation PERCEVAL is the counterattack on Palmyra but both are referred rather vaguely in the TRO so not sure.
-There is little talk about 3150. Presumably the biggest events will happen then. We know there will be an IlClan. We know Alaric Ward will duel with Devlin Stone. (I think there was a preview of IlClan cover somewhere, which portrays the duel, and the way i hear it, the duel happened in an event few years back.)
-Whether the timeline extends beyond 3150 in IlClan is unknown. Ben H. Rome's comments in news threads indicated the original plan was for things to end in 3150, but how much of the original plan remains is unknown. That said, 3150 is a nice round number, and timeline jumping forward exactly 100 years is another nice round number.
-The Fortress Republic's Walls are referred in plural. Whether this is figurative or literal is unknown. I would assume literal, it is more likely the Fortress is created by multiple devices rather than just one, if you ask me.

[Scotty]

Don't forget that immediately preceding the League-Regulan conflict is the assassination of Jessica Marik.  We don't know for certain who took over yet, but my money is on Nicol.

[Empyrus]

So i did miss something?

EDIT By the way, i don't think i collected every little thing from the TRO. Just those that are either major or had rough timing at least. Obviously an assassination is a major event...

EDIT Found the note about the assassination. Not sure about timing, added it to unknown category with timing guess.

[Scotty]

I want to say, from memory, that there's a single sentence that mentions the conflict with Regulus lasted roughly six months.  That'd put the assassination of Jessica Marik at either the very end of 3147 or beginning of 3148.  Gut (and unsubstantiated) feeling I'd put it at late December 3147.

[Empyrus]

Well, i do have 3147-3148 category... Moved the assassination there.

[Wrangler]

Great list.

Hopefully we'll get more soon in some form before the IlClan book drops

[Kit deSummersville]

-September: Jade Falcons assault Ark-Royal. Fall of Ark-Royal.

How seasonally accurate.

[Empyrus]

Pun not intended but now that it has been pointed out, it is a rather fine pun in my opinion...  [blank]

[Foxx Ital]

Thanks for putting it all together!

[Jellico]

How seasonally accurate.

If in the right hemisphere.

[Empyrus]

If in the right hemisphere.

What if it is the left hemisphere?

[sadlerbw]

Ok, just to get back on track with the 'speculation' part of the thread:

I'm thinking it looks like a pretty safe bet that the walls coming down around the Republic will take the pressure off the FedSuns and stop the shrinkage it has been seeing recently. I don't know if there will be much pushback or not, e.g. will New Syrtis come back into the Suns solidly? Is Robinson just a write-off now? I could see them leaving the 'Dragon's Tongue' or whatever it was they called that protuberance of worlds the Combine took out by the Raven Alliance.

Also, the Wolves will get to Terra. First? As part of an alliance? Will they win? Who knows, but I think it is pretty much settled that they will be fighting on Terra. Just looking at the force dispositions in FM3145, they have the most forces concentrated and ready right at the doorstep of the republic.

I think the CapCon and the Combine will finally get to share a bit of a border...and they are NOT going to like each other. I don't know if it will last long, or if the FedSuns will be allowed to have a path to Terra again before the book ends, but I could see ilClan leaving the FedSuns without a route to Terra.

Devlin Stone will die. Not sure when or how, but I think his ticket is going to get punched. I don't have any evidence, I just think its likely.

[Empyrus]

Do note that the Republic will survive in some form very likely. Second Succession War framing note refers to an "Exarch".

I do wonder if Devlin Stone is willing to submit the Republic to a Clan. Perhaps Alaric will kill him in a duel, because somehow Stone doesn't seem to be a guy who submits. He is a conqueror (though with good intentions) and a leader... but his stubbornest is arguably in his name. If so, his successor will probably surrender.

Of course, while the IlClan is the Clan that rules Earth, in my opinion there is unspoken requirement of holding Terra. If you're not strong enough to hold the planet, then you cannot be the real IlClan.
Another thing to consider is that if other Clans actually submit to the IlClan. On paper, they should... but let's be real, what's left of the Clan honor doesn't necessarily extend to that. I doubt that whoever manages to conquer and hold Terra has both the strength to hold it, and to beat others into submission. Not without help...

[Gus]

Devlin Stone will die. Not sure when or how, but I think his ticket is going to get punched. I don't have any evidence, I just think its likely.

Or disappears/fakes his own death and goes back into cryohibernation...

[Empyrus]

Or disappears/fakes his own death and goes back into cryohibernation...

"I'm back! To prove that the people of Inner Sphere do not care for warrior-conquerors!....Wait, why haven't people overthrown the IlClan yet? Shit, i'll shoot another friend and go back to cryo hibernation..."

[Red Pins]

I like the idea the lowering of the walls will take pressure off the FS - sort of says, "You're so screwed, only fiat can save you!"  A far cry from the 4th SW.  About time too.  What was that line, something about every faction getting kicked in the crotch, on a regular basis?  Seems to me they needed an abject lesson about the universe they live in, orienting to defense rather than offense.

And seriously, why was there no stockpiling or cheating the agreements?  Everybody does that!  Especially sandwiched between the DC and CC.  At least they haven't pulled a miracle weapon out of the hat, yet.

[Iracundus]

I like the idea the lowering of the walls will take pressure off the FS - sort of says, "You're so screwed, only fiat can save you!"  A far cry from the 4th SW.  About time too.  What was that line, something about every faction getting kicked in the crotch, on a regular basis?  Seems to me they needed an abject lesson about the universe they live in, orienting to defense rather than offense.

And seriously, why was there no stockpiling or cheating the agreements?  Everybody does that!  Especially sandwiched between the DC and CC.  At least they haven't pulled a miracle weapon out of the hat, yet.

I thought the reason given for why the FS was caught so flat footed was a combination of Harrison Davion buying into the Stone Kool-Aid and thus disarming with relatively little cheating compared to the CC and DC, and then Caleb Davion's badly thought out "reforms" and then him getting a good chunk of the AFFS wiped out on Palmyra.

[marauder648]

"I'm back! To prove that the people of Inner Sphere do not care for warrior-conquerors!....Wait, why haven't people overthrown the IlClan yet? Shit, i'll shoot another friend and go back to cryo hibernation..."

"I'm not a bad man! I'm just written that way."

D. Stone.  Possibly.

[Iracundus]

"I'm not a bad man! I'm just written that way."

D. Stone.  Possibly.

“You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain." 

That's what I see happening to him.

[pheonixstorm]

And on that day.. that... thing that we woke up... It... It wasn't the man we put to sleep. It was a monster, something we tell out children about at bedtime. What happened to our savior?!?

[marauder648]

I'm just thinking of who it could be.

lets break it down.

Most likely suspects

Clan Jade Falcon - This is BAD END if Malvina becomes ilKhan as she's basically omnicidal and pretty much Smoke Jaguars at their worst kinds of evil.  But the Falcons still have a lot of worlds in the way.  They have ostendibly the strongest fleet assets left in the Inner Sphere save the Ravens  and are the most willing to use them with a Cameron and several Aegis class ships IIRC, she's also most likely to use orbital bombardment to force the issue. 

But she's surrounded by enemies and I think everyone would try and stop her in her drive for Terra because of the fear of a reign of terror if she became ilKhan. 

Clan Wolf - Technically the closest and with some possibly 'legitimate' claim at the Lyran throne the Empire is in the best position as they have the still somewhat fractured Mariks around them who are not overly a threat and seemingly content to leave the Wolves alone.  But their Tourman is battered and they still don't have many factories up and running to replace losses.  An assault on Terra once the walls go down would be an all or nothing roll of the dice.

The less usual suspects

Clan Hells Horses - They would want to do it but don't have the forces to do so as far as I know.  If anything the Horses would probably throw themselves at Malvina and co, if the Falcons went all in for Terra. They know what the Falcons have become and its not good.

The unusual suspect

Clan Ghost Bear/Dominion - Whilst having one of the largest coherent militaries in the Inner Sphere, as well as two Leviathan class battleships assuming the Leviathan III has launched, the Bears/Dominion seems to not have the actual will to go for Terra, to the point they don't seem bothered about it and are happy where they are. 

[ANS Kamas P81]

With a Roshak loremaster (IIRC) and a ... remarkably greenburd attitude, it's heavily pushing towards CJF claiming the title in 3250.  Granted that's likely an accurate red herring; by 3250 they'll be the IlClan - but it'd be too easy to be that way to start with, and battletech is all about strategic reversals of fortune and 'your turn in the crotchkicking seat' IMO.

[marauder648]

I'm looking forwards to what ever comes though.  But if the Falcons do get it..I really hope Malvina eats a high velocty bolt of particles or large chunk of metal before her Clan claims victory.  We do NOt want her as ilKhan.

[Maingunnery]

I suspect that the Council of Six has been fooling everyone and the joining of all the IS Clans is the IlClan.

[marauder648]

I suspect that the Council of Six has been fooling everyone and the joining of all the IS Clans is the IlClan.

Thats a possibility, it would stop a sudden and near suicidal race for Terra by the survivng Clans whilst the Foxes sell Mech's to everyone, making so much cash they can literally do the Scrooge McDuck swimming in money thing. 

Or basically its a case of "Look you're doing the whole succession wars 'thing' again, so you know what. Screw it. We're ALL in charge now."

But at the same time, I think we kind of want to see a climactic battle for it. 

[ajcbm]

Odds are the ROTS will move into the FedSuns. Julian Davion will become the new Exarch.

It solves the FS problem of not having enough troops or any warships.

[marauder648]

Odds are the ROTS will move into the FedSuns. Julian Davion will become the new Exarch.

It solves the FS problem of not having enough troops or any warships.

Or something that comes REALLY far off the Left Field. The Fedelis show up in large numbers and go "Hi we're Clan." and grab Terra or are given it by Stone or something.

[jimdigris]

There are two other possibilities for IlClan. 
1. The Ghost Bears and Snow Ravens team up.  The Ravens clear a path and the Bears seize the real estate.
2. The Adders take complete control over the Homeworlds and build a force that can stomp over everything in the Sphere.

[ajcbm]

There are two other possibilities for IlClan. 
1. The Ghost Bears and Snow Ravens team up.  The Ravens clear a path and the Bears seize the real estate.
2. The Adders take complete control over the Homeworlds and build a force that can stomp over everything in the Sphere.

The Homeworld Clans are a spent force. They don't have the numbers or tech edge now to even beat one Successor State.

[Tyler Jorgensson]

The Homeworld Clans are a spent force. They don't have the numbers or tech edge now to even beat one Successor State.

As of 3085: we know nothing of what happened for the past 60 years or so...