Author Topic: 3028-3050 Random Assignment & Rarity Tables - 11 Jan v9.1  (Read 109160 times)

truetanker

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Makinus

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eagerly awaiting for clan 2nd line tables.... good work!

About the SL mech tables, some i think are missing (may be wrong, following fluff in sarna.net):


- Mercury (MCY-99)
- Lynx (LNX-9Q)
- Spartan (SPT-N2)
- Wolverine (WVR-7H)
- Phoenix Hawk (PXH-1b and PXH-1c)
- Shogun (SHG-2F)
- Thunder Hawk (TDK-7X)
- Rifleman II (RFL-3N-2)
- Battlemaster (BLR-1Gb)

Against-the-Bot Campaign Rules:
http://bg.battletech.com/forums/megamek-games/campaign-rules-against-the-bot-thread-4/
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consequences: nothing explains Fasanomics. Any attempt to do so generally results in the bandaid on the sucking chest wound turning out to be a carnivorous lifeform that only makes the bleeding worse.

Xotl

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I don't have a copy of the MUL in front of me, but I'm pretty sure all those post-date 2750 (except the Mercury, but that one is specifically described as being only stationed on Earth and at Mitchell's factories: it shouldn't be deployed randomly).
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3028-3050 Random Assignment Tables -
Also contains faction deployment & rarity info and Quirk lists.

http://bg.battletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=1219.0

nckestrel

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eagerly awaiting for clan 2nd line tables.... good work!

About the SL mech tables, some i think are missing (may be wrong, following fluff in sarna.net):


- Mercury (MCY-99)
- Lynx (LNX-9Q)
- Spartan (SPT-N2)
- Wolverine (WVR-7H)
- Phoenix Hawk (PXH-1b and PXH-1c)
- Shogun (SHG-2F)
- Thunder Hawk (TDK-7X)
- Rifleman II (RFL-3N-2)
- Battlemaster (BLR-1Gb)

Rifleman II is 2720.  Lynx, Spartan, Wolverine II, Phoenix Hawk Specials, Shogun (2H, 2F is SW), Thunder Hawk and Battlemaster are 2760s.
Master Unit List website - where to find units, what factions use them, what's their BV?
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3025-3050 Random Assignment Tables -
Also contains faction deployment & rarity info and Quirk lists.
http://bg.battletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=1219.0

Drufause

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Awesome thanks as always
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http://www.classicbattletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=191.0
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TJHairball

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Xotl! Someone reminded me that I had done some frequency analysis earlier by weapon / etc on your table.

Today it occurred to me that my intuition then - that your weight class assignments are a little too extreme, in particular with doubling assaults for Steiner and halving them for Marik - could be tested by checking through the fluff.

I went and ran the 3028 table frequencies through 24 constraints (mostly pulled from TRO 3039, so a few of these might be '39 vs '25 issues, but they don't really seem like those sorts of issues), weighted for the number of estimated BattleMech regiments operational in 3025 for each Great House (110-80-75-60-56), and came up with a short list of problems.

Trebuchet:
Your table gives a small edge to Steiner over Marik. This actually isn't a problem, since it's "perhaps" and the two are virtually equal.

“(Trebuchet) House Marik is perhaps the largest user of the Trebuchet”

Spider:
Here it seems that Davion has too high of a Spider availability, placing them second just behind the DC.

“(Spider) The FWL and DC sport the greatest numbers of them”

Scorpion
Here again Davion has too many of these - the most instead of the least.

“(Scorpion) The Federated Commonwealth possesses the lowest numbers of the design”

Wolverine
"Majority" is a very strong statement. Here, your table gives the FWLM 22% of them, rather short of a majority, slightly short of a plurality of the Great Houses (below Davion's total), and well below the combined total of Steiner and Davion.

“(Wolverine) The majority of Wolverines reside within the FWLM, followed by the FC”

Thunderbolt
Marik seems to be sitting in the back of the pack here with generic availability. Davion is also sitting fairly far forward thanks to their 110 regiments of BattleMechs.

“(Thunderbolt) Houses Steiner and Marik are the 'Mechs primary users”

Marik assaults:
Between the low force size (60 active regiments) and low assault 'mech multiplier, Marik actually has the least (or, in the case of the Longbow, second-least) of these out of every Great House, instead of the most or second most. Fixing this will probably entail using slightly closer ratios of assaults, e.g., 20-15-10 Steiner-everybody else-Marik, and also de-genericizing these slightly.

“(Goliath) Very few Goliaths remain, and most of those are split between the LC and FWL”
“(Battlemaster) The armies of Houses Steiner and Marik contain the most BattleMasters”
“(Longbow) In 3039, the FWL and Federated Commonwealth had most of the Longbows”
“(Awesome) As the FWL controls the only surviving manufacturing plants capable of producing the Awesomes, it also operates the largest amount of Awesomes of any of the Great Houses”
“(Stalker) The FWL and LC hold a small advantage in raw numbers (TRO 3039)”

I've attached a spreadsheet showing the precise numbers of these (and a series of other constraints I tested and found perfectly satisfied.)
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BigDuke66

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Well if you go the way of "calculating" then I must say that you regiment numbers don't really fit.
3025(3028 differ only slight) numbers are:
Davion:
RCTs   35
Mech Reg.   13
Militia Reg.   24
Academy Reg.   5
Training Bat.   3

Mercenary Reg.   37(in 18 units)
Mercenary Bat.   8(in 4 units)

Kurita:
Mech Reg.   62
Academy Reg.   4

Mercenary Reg.   12
Mercenary Bat.   2

Liao:
Mech Reg.   27
Mech Bat.   32(17 units)
Warriorhouse Reg.(1 MB & 1 IB)   8(8 houses)
Deathcommandos   1 bat.

Mercenary Mech Reg.   8(2 units)
Mercenary Mech Bat.   10(8 units)
Mercenary Mech Comp.   1

Marik:
Mech Reg.   56
Mercenary Reg.   2
Mercenary Bat.   6
Mercenary Comp.   2

Steiner:
Mech Reg.   52
Mech Bat.   2

Mercenary Reg.   22(in 16 unit)
Mercenary Bat.   1(in 1 unit)
Mercenary Comp.   1(in 1 unit)


Bold are those that you can really count in and bold & cursive are the ones that surely drift off the usual composition of a frontline mech regiment in that house.
Furthermore the numbers of mechs inside a regiment vary from house to house and unit to unit as some use command lances some not, some have even command battalions(Davion RCTs).
So maybe you should try taking this into the calculation and see if there are still problems left.

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TJHairball

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Well if you go the way of "calculating" then I must say that you regiment numbers don't really fit.
The regiment numbers are from the first House books, which were the most convenient source on hand.  ;)

They do include mercenary forces. I would disagree with disqualifying militia regiments and warrior houses from the calculation of what constitutes a regular House force - these are a pretty hefty component! In the case of the Federated Suns, the March Militias are very significant commands and end up doing quite a bit of fighting.

If I include mercenary forces, the numbers pretty much pop to where they are in the original House books.
Quote
So maybe you should try taking this into the calculation and see if there are still problems left.
OK. So if I take RCTs as 4/3 of a standard regiment based on their use of an entire command battalion(!), include march militia 'mech regiments, include warrior houses, and don't include any of the training units or mercenaries, the Trebuchet problem - such as it is - quietly disappears.

If I take RCTs as 1 standard regiment, the Spider count for Davion slips a hair below Marik. (27:26 ratio, though.)

Everything else isn't affected enough by those changes to the calculation. Marik is still last place in the number of Awesomes, for example.
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Xotl

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Today it occurred to me that my intuition then - that your weight class assignments are a little too extreme, in particular with doubling assaults for Steiner and halving them for Marik - could be tested by checking through the fluff.

If I'm reading you correctly, you're assuming I altered the table results in some way based on the alterations I made to the Regiment Experience Distribution table.  They actually have nothing to do with each other (I just threw the table in because it was need and somewhat related to the subject in general).  Remember, Av has nothing to do with hard numbers - all the tables equal out to 1000, but whether each table represents 1,000 mechs or 10,000 I don't know and didn't try take into account - it's just a ratio thing.

Quote
I went and ran the 3028 table frequencies through 24 constraints (mostly pulled from TRO 3039, so a few of these might be '39 vs '25 issues, but they don't really seem like those sorts of issues), weighted for the number of estimated BattleMech regiments operational in 3025 for each Great House (110-80-75-60-56), and came up with a short list of problems.

Spider:
Here it seems that Davion has too high of a Spider availability, placing them second just behind the DC.

“(Spider) The FWL and DC sport the greatest numbers of them”

This is an outright error - I need to either add Av to DC and FWL or drop the others (probably the former)

Quote
Scorpion
Here again Davion has too many of these - the most instead of the least.

“(Scorpion) The Federated Commonwealth possesses the lowest numbers of the design”

I hoped my having Steiner scrap all theirs would be enough, but I need to drop Davion too and if I had thought about it for more than ten seconds I would have realized this.  Thanks.

Quote
Wolverine
"Majority" is a very strong statement. Here, your table gives the FWLM 22% of them, rather short of a majority, slightly short of a plurality of the Great Houses (below Davion's total), and well below the combined total of Steiner and Davion.

“(Wolverine) The majority of Wolverines reside within the FWLM, followed by the FC”

At the same time it says they're a common sight on the battlefield and I wasn't sure how to can easily reconcile the two statements without giving Marik so many that they wind up using them for lawn gnomes.  If I drop everyone else to a very low Av 7 or even Av 6 and up Marik to Av 10 it should work out, though that makes them 1-in-4 of Mariks' mediums and at the same time not really common anywhere else.

Quote
Thunderbolt
Marik seems to be sitting in the back of the pack here with generic availability. Davion is also sitting fairly far forward thanks to their 110 regiments of BattleMechs.

“(Thunderbolt) Houses Steiner and Marik are the 'Mechs primary users”

This could mean ratio rather than raw numbers, so I'd prefer to leave it as is.

Quote
Marik assaults:
Between the low force size (60 active regiments) and low assault 'mech multiplier, Marik actually has the least (or, in the case of the Longbow, second-least) of these out of every Great House, instead of the most or second most. Fixing this will probably entail using slightly closer ratios of assaults, e.g., 20-15-10 Steiner-everybody else-Marik, and also de-genericizing these slightly.

“(Goliath) Very few Goliaths remain, and most of those are split between the LC and FWL”
“(Battlemaster) The armies of Houses Steiner and Marik contain the most BattleMasters”
“(Longbow) In 3039, the FWL and Federated Commonwealth had most of the Longbows”
“(Awesome) As the FWL controls the only surviving manufacturing plants capable of producing the Awesomes, it also operates the largest amount of Awesomes of any of the Great Houses”
“(Stalker) The FWL and LC hold a small advantage in raw numbers (TRO 3039)”

I've attached a spreadsheet showing the precise numbers of these (and a series of other constraints I tested and found perfectly satisfied.)

I always meant to do what you have done one day, but never got around to it.  I greatly appreciate it, as it has caught errors I need to correct even if I wasn't interested in taking your approach.  That having been said, I'm not sure I can really fix the issue of Marik's assaults while sticking with the canon facts of notably fewer assaults (whatever that percentage actually is) and fewer regiments.

Also bear in mind that any time I adjust any number, the amounts for all the other mechs change as well (since whatever I do has to equal out to 1000).
« Last Edit: 31 August 2011, 06:42:05 by Xotl »
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3028-3050 Random Assignment Tables -
Also contains faction deployment & rarity info and Quirk lists.

http://bg.battletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=1219.0

Drufause

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I cant find the rating for the star-fighter I will use against the Kodan Armada.  Will I be replaced on earth by an android or clone.
Combat Command Counters Thread
http://www.classicbattletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=191.0
quote by OgreBattle on 09/08/2011
"Knowledge and social skills usually use separate attributes, and often when you're good at one you take the other as your dump stat."

TJHairball

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At the same time it says they're a common sight on the battlefield and I wasn't sure how to can easily reconcile the two statements without giving Marik so many that they wind up using them for lawn gnomes.  If I drop everyone else to a very low Av 7 or even Av 6 and up Marik to Av 10 it should work out, though that makes them 1-in-4 of Mariks' mediums and at the same time not really common anywhere else.
Yeah. I don't think "majority" is really called for, even if that's what's said - it should probably read "plurality" instead. The only real issue then is the fact that the Mariks are supposed to have more than the entire FC, which otherwise has close to three times their military (and combine on the current table to about 1.5x their Wolverines, which is just a bit much).
Quote
I always meant to do what you have done one day, but never got around to it.  I greatly appreciate it, as it has caught errors I need to correct even if I wasn't interested in taking your approach.  That having been said, I'm not sure I can really fix the issue of Marik's assaults while sticking with the canon facts of notably fewer assaults (whataever that percentage actually is) and small regiment size.

Also bear in mind that any time I adjust any number, the amounts for all the other mechs go down (since whatever I do has to equal out to 1000).
Well, my suggestion is to try tightening the gap a little - noticeably fewer could be a ratio of 2:3 or 3:4 rather than 1:2.

If your table looked something like this:

   Kurita   Steiner   Marik   Davion   Liao
Light   35   20   25   25   25
Medium   30   30   40   40   40
Heavy   20   30   25   20   20
Assault   15   20   10   15   15

Or
   Kurita   Steiner   Marik   Davion   Liao
Light   40   20   30   30   30
Medium   30   30   40   40   40
Heavy   20   35   22.5   20   20
Assault   10   15    7.5   10   10

It would still have all the "right" relationships - Steiner has way more assaults than everybody else, Marik is measurably behind on assaults, et cetera. It does give the DCMS/AFFS slightly more Banshees than the LCAF - thinking about it, you might want to bump the BNC-3S up, especially for the 3039 table, if you do something like that, the Lyrans are supposedly putting them out through factories as of 3039.

I would then keep the current Avs for assaults in Marik - they're fine, most of them are the handful of assaults Marik is supposed to have. Just make blanket raises / drops on the Av of all the 'mechs outside of Marik.

First, raise the Av of all assault 'mechs outside Marik by a point, except for these five. Second:

BattleMaster - drop Av by one point for everything but Steiner and Marik (if you adjust the weight distributions) or everything but Marik (if you don't).
Goliath - drop Av by one  point for everything but Steiner and Marik (Av1 seems appropriate considering the 'mech is considered nearly extinct)
Stalker - drop Av by 1-2 points for everything but Marik. (Marik's behind by a factor of about 3:1 from, say, Davion.)
Awesome - drop Av by 1-2 points for everything but Marik. (Here the factor is a little more than 2:1, but Marik is supposed to have an unambiguous unique lead.)
Longbow - drop Av by one point for everything but Marik.

Just a big blanket application for what really is a big blanket effect - 2-3 points net change across the Av board in the assault weight class, plus a slight tweak to have Marik behind a little less in assaults. I don't know how you're fitting Av to 'mech population or I'd give you the boundaries, but that looks like the right ballpark for an adjustment. You can see where the numbers lie on the spreadsheet. There's a factor of about 4 between Davion and Marik by base frequency totals (110/60 x 2:1) and 5 between Steiner and Marik (75/60 x 4:1)

Except for the Goliath, those are all of your most common assault BattleMechs, so it would render the non-Marik assault population much more heterogeneous - but maybe the assault 'mech population should be pretty heterogeneous outside of Marik (where they only have the handful that they produce domestically) and Steiner (where they're manufacturing certain ones at breakneck speed.)
« Last Edit: 04 March 2011, 07:24:52 by TJHairball »
President-designate of the Dead World Collective. We control more worlds than any faction since the Star League!
Khan of Clan Iron Elephant. We remember. And if you know who we are, we're going to have to make you disappear.
I'm a numbers guy. Please don't tempt me to do the math, I just might.

Daryk

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...giving Marik so many that they wind up using them for lawn gnomes...
I applaud this concept, and welcome our new Wolverine lawn gnome overlords...  ;D
« Last Edit: 04 March 2011, 22:34:33 by Daryk »

Xotl

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I cant find the rating for the star-fighter I will use against the Kodan Armada.  Will I be replaced on earth by an android or clone.

Roll D10,000 on the Random Starfighter Assignment Table to determine the optimum machine that best helps defend the Star League.  Your replacement is determined by the Random Replacement Table, but be aware that all results of "Houseplant" are non-rerollable - you takes your chances.

Quote
Just a big blanket application for what really is a big blanket effect - 2-3 points net change across the Av board in the assault weight class, plus a slight tweak to have Marik behind a little less in assaults. I don't know how you're fitting Av to 'mech population or I'd give you the boundaries, but that looks like the right ballpark for an adjustment. You can see where the numbers lie on the spreadsheet.

I'm worried that the way the tables are generated would throw off some of your calculations, namely the compression/expansion that occurs due to the need for everything to equal 1000 (for example, the medium tables undergo extremely heavy compression since there's so many different units, meaning that any adjustment there has less effect.  The assault table has the exact opposite problem).

If you send me a PM with your email address I can send you my base calculation files that show the real numbers I use to arrive at the table percentages.  It would make a lot more sense for you to analyze those rather than trying to work off of the modified end-product.  These would also include the first batch of corrections I made from last night (Spiders and Scorpion), some Wolverine adjustments, as well as any other changes I've made since 7.95 while preparing for the next release.
« Last Edit: 04 March 2011, 14:38:43 by Xotl »
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3028-3050 Random Assignment Tables -
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Cybertec

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Please, keep up the good work!
It's good to know that there are still Battletech players out there that care!
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eternal

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Bumping this great thread. :)

I also saw that Xotl posted his Star League tables over in Makinus' Against the Bot Megamek campaign thread.  I hope he doesn't mind me crossposting that link here.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/357573/3028-3050%20Faction%20Assignment%20%26%20Rarity%20Tables%208.0%20-%20Star%20League.pdf

Thanks for all the great work.
« Last Edit: 31 March 2011, 01:08:49 by eternal »

lexington476

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I also saw that Xotl posted his Star League tables over in Makinus' Against the Bot Megamek campaign thread.  I hope he doesn't mind me crossposting that link here.

Downloaded, Xotl is cool [notworthy]  [rockon].

Xotl

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So, I've got a little research question I'd like to ask of the readers of this thread.  Can anyone find accurate regiment totals for 3039, either in one place or pieced together from different sources?

We have canon totals for 3025 (the House books) and 3050 (20 Year Update).  I don't think I have anything on 3039 per se, and could use it to help revise the 3039 tables in the same way I've recently finished with the 3028 tables.

EDIT: It looks like War of 3039 gives us a total of 94 regiments for the Combine, and I think we can trust that total, seeing as they would have held nothing back.  The same can't be said of the totals given there for FedCom forces, as there would have been plenty of regiments on the Marik and Liao borders that didn't participate in the invasion and so weren't listed in the FedCom regiment totals given in War of 3039.

Brush Wars tells us the CapCon was reduced to 41 battalions (12 2/3 regiments).  Then they fought the Andurien/Canopian Invasion.  20 Year Update says their 4 remaining factories were shut down after the 4th War, and were not all operational until 3036 (meaning that some had come back on line before that).  By 3050 they're back up to 30 regiments.
« Last Edit: 01 April 2011, 10:19:16 by Xotl »
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lexington476

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I think Historical War of 3039 is the best we are going to get without some new product.

BigDuke66

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Don't overlook the text before the deployment table, it states:
"All of the BattleMech units fielded by the AFFS, LCAF and DCMS—including mercenary units— appear on this table; of units belonging to the CCAF and FWLM, only those that took part in military actions during the War of 3039 (whether against each other or another nation) are listed."
So the list can also be used for DCMS, LCAF & AFFS.

Here are my numbers(based on "Historicals: War of 39"):
Steiner:
29 RCTs
29 Mech Reg.(of those notably are the 5 Tikonov Republican Guard regiments)
2 Mech Bat.
6 Militia Reg.
6 Training Bat.
2 Training Grp.(No clue what size they are but I guess smaller that a battalion maybe even a company )


Davion:
44 RCTs(of those notably are the 6 FedCom RCTs)
11 Mech Reg.
24 Militia Reg.
5 Academy Reg.
10 Training Bat.


Kurita:
90 Mech Reg.(I guess the House >Guard is a regiment too)
4 Academy Reg.


I now take a look into the CCAF & FWLM.
« Last Edit: 31 March 2011, 20:16:35 by BigDuke66 »

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Xotl

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Using those War of 3039 tables, and assuming each RCT has 1 regiment of mechs, I count 84 Davion regiments, which seems off, since in 3025 they had 90.  I may have to cross-reference with the 3025 tables and see if any regiments are missing.

I get about 67 Steiner regiments, as opposed to their 3025 total of 54.
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BigDuke66

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3028 Davion had:
36 RCTs
12 Mech Reg.
24 Militia Reg.
5 Academy Reg.
4 Training Bat.
So they gained about 9 = 7+2(6 Training Battalions) Mech regiments.


3028 Steiner had:
52 Mech Reg.
2 Mech Bat.
They gained a bit more than +14 = 6+6(Militia reg.)+2(6 Training Bat.) Mech regiments and those 2 Training Grp..
« Last Edit: 01 April 2011, 16:13:25 by BigDuke66 »

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Xotl

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I see the problem - I assumed Davion had 90 Regiments in 3028 (I'm not sure why), rather than the 78 you've totaled up.

I'm counting for Davion in 3039:

11 Line Regiments
44 RCTs
24 Militia Regiments
15 Training/Cadre Battalions (5 Regiments)
TOTAL: 84 Regiments

And you posted this for Davion 3028:

36 RCTs
12 Mech Reg.
24 Militia Reg.
5 Academy Reg.
4 Training Bat.
TOTAL: 78 Regiments

So we have a gain of 6 regiments.
« Last Edit: 01 April 2011, 15:36:08 by Xotl »
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BigDuke66

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Check the training units more detailed, these are 5 Academy Regiments(full regiments not Battalions, 3 from NAIS and 2 from Albion Military Academy) and 10 Training Battalions = 8,33 Regiments for 3039, bringing you to a total of 87,33 Regiments for Davion in 3039 compared to 78,33 in 3028 = a gain of 9 regiments.


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Xotl

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Ah, I follow now.

Okay, Liao:

Brush Wars tells us the CapCon was reduced by the 4th War to 41 battalions - I'm assuming this includes mercenaries.  Then they fought the Andurien/Canopian Invasion 11 months later.

Going through Brush Wars, I'm assuming it lists every CapCon unit.  They list 35 House battalions and 16 Mercenary battalions (51 total), so they've managed to add 10 battalions in 11 months - a pretty impressive rebuild (these would presumably not all be new, but plenty of trashed units rebuilt, but it's still impressive all the same).

That just leaves Marik.  Duke: could you tell me if the Brush Wars list for Marik is a whole list (all Marik units) or just a partial one?  The Defenders of Andurien would be removed from the Marik balance, obviously.  Thanks for your help on this.
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BigDuke66

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I while ago I went thru both issues of the 4th SW sourcebooks and my results are these:

Liao House units(including Warrior Houses) surviving the 4th SW:
33 Battalions
2,5 Companies

Well the info about 41 bat. surviving is a bit unclear and is simply taken from the 4th SW sourcebooks, 41 can at best mean all mechs summed up to the regular structure of 36 mechs per battalion because when I take the mercs into the calculation I end up with 53 Bat. + 5,5 Co. surviving now assuming every unit is around 75% of their TOE we get a bit more than 41 bat. effective strength.

Brush Wars is not listing the complete CCAF:
"...only those units belonging to the CCAF, MAF, and other external powers that took part in military actions (whether against each other or another nation involved in the Andurien Crisis) are listed"
Same counts for Wo39 and the 4th SW sourcebooks, so you end up with only the list in the "Liao Housebook" as being complete.

Only TPTB knows what effective strength Liao had in 3039 because we can't be sure if these 41 effective strength are correct, we don't know how much they recovered between 4th SW & the Andurien war and we don't know how much they recovered after the Andurien war.


Marik 3039 numbers are(from the Brush Wars entry for 3039):
50 Mech Regiments(Loyal FWL)
5 Mech Regiments(Andurien)
But those are also in various states of TOE strength, some on a low level because of the Andurien war, others full because they didn't see any action and others lack info because they don't have an entry for 3039 so you don't know if they recovered their losses that occurred in recent years.
And yes the list for Marik/Andurien in Brush Wars is complete.

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Frabby

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I'm very very sceptical regarding these numbers - they need to be taken with a mountain of salt.
For starters, they're unreliable in-universe sources. Remember that we're dealing with in-charakter reports which by nature are prone to the usual dose of error, guesswork, bias, propaganda. Second, people aren't counting 'Mechs, they are counting military formations. Which says nothing at all about their actual strength. It is conceivable that all militaries actively seek to curtail their actual strength so you would have to add a sizeable "safety chunk" to any count.

OOC, every six months or so there is a new variation of the "How many 'Mechs are there in the BT universe" thread. And it quickly boils down to the fact that the military strength of the Houses as presented in the House Books or virtually any other publication falls short dramatically. There's obviously a gazillion 'Mechs in local militia forces, in unregistered (or even registered) private ownership, in various stages of disassembly and readiness, in transit, or otherwise unaccounted for. It can reasonably be argued that the listings omit pirate groups and small mercenary commands ("small" apparently meanging anything below roughly battalion size - i.e. something in the area of 98% of all merc 'Mech units which are typically portrayed as lance- to company sized).
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Xotl

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Some fair points, but I'd add some caveats to your caveats:

Quote
For starters, they're unreliable in-universe sources. Remember that we're dealing with in-charakter reports which by nature are prone to the usual dose of error, guesswork, bias, propaganda.

This can be true, but rarely is a sourcebook written with in-universe bias as a general intent, like the various Jihad books are; more often this reasoning is used as a way to more gracefully ease in a retcon.  More specifically, a report on the military strengths of a House from thirty years ago is hardly top secret stuff worth obfuscating.

Quote
Second, people aren't counting 'Mechs, they are counting military formations. Which says nothing at all about their actual strength. It is conceivable that all militaries actively seek to curtail their actual strength so you would have to add a sizeable "safety chunk" to any count.

This is true, though more likely they're understrength, since there are never enough mechs.  Still, since I'm using deployment rosters across multiple eras, I'd rather just assume they're at full strength in all cases - it will be in error, but at least it will be a consistent error.

Quote
OOC, every six months or so there is a new variation of the "How many 'Mechs are there in the BT universe" thread. And it quickly boils down to the fact that the military strength of the Houses as presented in the House Books or virtually any other publication falls short dramatically. There's obviously a gazillion 'Mechs in local militia forces, in unregistered (or even registered) private ownership, in various stages of disassembly and readiness, in transit, or otherwise unaccounted for. It can reasonably be argued that the listings omit pirate groups and small mercenary commands ("small" apparently meanging anything below roughly battalion size - i.e. something in the area of 98% of all merc 'Mech units which are typically portrayed as lance- to company sized).

I'm not trying to count mercenaries, determine how mechs there are in the Inner Sphere, or deal with any of the thornier issues of FASAnomics.  All I'm trying to do is look at the House forces as they are consistently presented in canon and set a baseline.  I'm aware of the potential flaws in this baseline, but it's better than the approach I had before, which was largely WAG across the board.  I'd rather have some canon standing, no matter how tenuous, than none at all.  For instance, the analysis I ran on the 3028 tables has, thanks to the help of TJHairball, caused me to make extensive revisions.  Now I can actually say that if you were to roll on the tables you will get a result that lines up with many of the statements in TR3039 - Marik will have the most Awesomes, will have the least assault mechs overall, Davion will have the most Mongooses, etc.  This is better than nothing.
« Last Edit: 02 April 2011, 12:29:54 by Xotl »
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Xotl

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I while ago I went thru both issues of the 4th SW sourcebooks and my results are these:

Liao House units(including Warrior Houses) surviving the 4th SW:
33 Battalions
2,5 Companies

Well, I think the best way to handle it then would be to figure out which Capellan units are on your list of 4th War survivors that aren't on the Brush Wars deployment charts.  Add the missing units to the Brush Wars charts and you should have a complete Capellan roster.  Do you have a roster of exactly who survived?

EDIT: We have 56 Marik regiments in 3025.  50 Marik regiments plus 5 Defenders of Andurien regiments in Brush Wars means one Marik regiment disappeared somewhere...
« Last Edit: 02 April 2011, 13:15:13 by Xotl »
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Daryk

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...
More specifically, a report on the military strengths of a House from thirty years ago is hardly top secret stuff worth obfuscating.
...
Just a side point, but never underestimate a government's ability to obfuscate information long past any operational impact.  Just because it's no longer worth classification doesn't make it declassified.

Xotl

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Oh I know - I'm a military historian. :)  WWII stuff on Ultra and Magic wasn't fully declassified until the late 70s, for instance.  It's just that it's an ultimately self-defeating path to take when dealing with a game.  I'm willing to accept at any time that the writers can and will declare something as deception/propaganda if they feel the need to, but until then, I'm accepting it as factual unless I have a reason otherwise.  The only other path available is to use nothing, because it all could be fake.

It also helps that we have no in-universe precedent for false deployment tables for the Houses, let alone decades-old ones.  Hidden units, yes, and errata in existing rosters, but not known units falsified on a roster.  We're talking about units that have been around mostly for centuries, with proud, well-known pedigrees.
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