Just how important were the Dragoons in the 4SW?

[Adam Vagus]

Reading the 4SW poker thread got me thinking about this again. We all know the Dragoons were a big part of keeping Kurita at bay but just how important were they? Surely Hanse had a backup plan in mind in case Takashi didn't go all out against the Jamie, and that's assuming if he knew the guy would at all. I can't say if he knew it or not. So can someone help me understand just how much the success of Hanse's splendid little war was on account of Jamie? Are there any canon accounts of backup plans in case the Dragon didn't focus it's wrath like it did on the Dragoons?

[Minemech]

 Even a fool may be taken for a genius when luck strikes just right. I think the Lyran invasion was his hedge.

[Adam Vagus]

And even a genius finds that luck plays a part in all his schemes.

[Minemech]

 Which is where Risk and Battletech players differentiate from chess players. In class I was once taught that Napoleon intentionally made an obvious weakness so that the enemy would focus on it, while using large numbers of skirmishers to snipe. In that battle he won because his skirmishers were willing to do the dangerous work.

[Iron Mongoose]

To answer at more length, the Dragoons did alow Hanse to focus the war on that front into a smaller area, and alow him to send more units and more resorces to the Cappie front.  That this would go down was I think clear to all sides.  Takashi had sworn a blood feud, and Jamie Wolf as a Clanner and Takashi as a samurai take thouse sorts of things very seriously.  Hanse knew that (well, half of it) and was able to plan accordingly.

Had it been otherwise, had the Dragoons lost on Misery or had Theodore taken over right then or had the Dragoons just peacefuly parted ways with the Dragon, the resualt would probably have been a less agressive push into the CC, and a greater need to hold troops on the DC front.  This probably means fewer worlds taken in each wave against the CC, meaning slower progress and a larger CC when the war finaly ended.  The over all stratigy would have of course still been effective, just on a smaller scale.  There might have also been some greater losses on the DC front, but I think Hanse was prepaired for that and willing to accept it; it would only have made him more gung ho for the war of 39, which may have come even sooner, if over the objections of Kat Steiner.

I think the greatest chance to really change the war is if the Dragoons don't mauld the DCMS on their way out.  In the years leading up to the 4th Succession War, the Dragon managned to turn out regements at a frantic pace, with both the Ryuken and Genyosha comming on line.  With out Misery, the Ryuken regements would have been alive and free to duke it out with the proto FedCom.  The presence of an extra several regements of skilled troops would have made a larger difrence, I think, on the whole.  Its possible that Hanse would not even have contemplated his bold attack if the Dragon had gained so much strength, and not lost it.

[Maelwys]

I'd say they were pretty important. Not only did the maul the Ryoken, costing the Dragoon 6 regiments of troops trained in a way the Davion forces wouldn't expect from Kuritan troops, they also became the lodestone for several Kuritan attacks, which damaged even more of the Kuritan units that might have been used to take apart a weaker border.

Of course, saying that, you also have to factor in the Dragoons. If they had left Kuritan space peacefully, then they might have had the same contract as usual (ie: No actions against our former employer). Which would have put them as part of the Capellan Invasion forces, and Hanse could've transferred a couple of regiments from that, back to the Kuritan front.

Either case, I think you would've seen a more widespread effort by the Kuritans, targeting useful objectives instead of Dragoon objectives.

[LastChanceCav]

The Combine was actually pretty weak at the time of the 4th SW.  I'm not sure they could have committed more troops to the FS front without losing the whole of the Rasalhague District to the Lyrans (might have had a Rasalhague PDZ instead of republic in the mid 3030s).  Without the Dragoons the Lyrans might have taken less though. 

There's even a chance that if the DCMS had crossed into the FS at that time a FS counterattack might have exposed how thin the Combine really was, especially without the Ghost regiments, Comstar mechs and Teddy's all-in bluffing.

With a shorter timeline and no FRR buffer to protect the Combine, the Clans might have returned to find the SL restored with a Davion on the throne, although its unlikely Comstar would have allowed such events to come to pass.

Cheers,
LCC

[Reaver]

The big thing that the Dragoons did in the 4SW was to prevent the Combine from seizing critical worlds like Quentin and Marduk along the combine border.  Given the increased effectiveness of the LCAF and Janos Marik's hanging his fellow members of the Concord out to dry, the Combine really couldn't have made a wholesale push into the Draconis March even if they had wanted to without giving up the entire Rasalhague Military District.  What they could have done, however, was seize key worlds along the border from the outmanned defenders.  Quentin, Kesai, Marduk.  By focusing on the Dragoons, however, Takashi made "seize key worlds" to mean "seize worlds that the Dragoons defend."  The Dragoons simply happened to defend largely unimportant worlds, and they kept beating back assault after assault.

In the long term, the Dragoons really didn't change anything.  Everything the Combine could have gotten in the 4th Succession War, they got in the War of '39.

[Lord Harlock]

There's even a chance that if the DCMS had crossed into the FS at that time a FS counterattack might have exposed how thin the Combine really was, especially without the Ghost regiments, Comstar mechs and Teddy's all-in bluffing.

With a shorter timeline and no FRR buffer to protect the Combine, the Clans might have returned to find the SL restored with a Davion on the throne, although its unlikely Comstar would have allowed such events to come to pass.

Cheers,
LCC

Yeah don't me cry tears of joy. Though it begs the question that the Clans might not show up in 3049 due to the fact that the Explorer Corps might be redirected due to Comstar having to redirect itself, so without an Unbound Light showing up over Huntress, it might go really different.

[lucho]

The Dragoons were key to Hanse's plans for dealing with Kurita. Hanse was counting on Takashi's obsession with the Goons. Not to stop the DCMS, but to keep it occupied while the Lyrans rolled into Rasalhague. It was his way of minimizing the Dragon's options (and AFFS losses on that front, undoubtedly).

The Dragoons made a huge difference: the CapCon was screwed no matter what, but Hanse knew he couldn't properly defend the Draconis March and steamroll the Capellans at the same time

[Grim_Reaper]

while i believe that the Dragoons were important along the FS/DC border i wouldn't go as far as to say that Hanse was Planing on that happening. merely a case of Serendipity for Hanse that the WDs mauled the DC forces along that border then defected to fight the DC on the side of the FS (and requested that to boot).

Takashi's Obsession against the Dragoons didn't hurts Hanse's Plans either.

if anything Hanse was counting on the DC being preoccupied by the LC invasion in the Rassalogue District and the FWL being too bankrupt from the troubles they had (instigated by Hanse i think) to get involved