Creating Serednya Slaviya's military, part the second

[ANS Kamas P81]

The more I look at that map, the more I want to enlarge Serednya Slaviya by gobbling up western Ukraine, specifically everything west of Rivne and Khmelnytskyi's oblast borders.  Make me stop please.

[glitterboy2098]

perhaps go the other way, and have parts of belarus and poland join them? since you're postulating what is basically a long running ethnic/cultural divide with ukraine, and those rarely have neat diving lines that end at borders. when the soviet union broke up in 1991, the (then semi-independant since 1990) belarus republic also fractured with a small section of it's southern territory (perhaps the part with brest and pinsk) breaking off and joining Serednya Slaviya based on old ties.

poland might be trickier.. either they did similar despite poland being a nominally sovereign allied nation and not a russian owned republic, or the pre-soviet territory within poland is in dispute, but no serious claims being pressed. this would cause minor tensions when Poland and Serednya Slaviya each join NATO, but you can always claim they're focused on a political resolution to it to avoid warfare.

[ANS Kamas P81]

That would be one idea, yeah...what I was thinking about with enlarging Serednya Slaviya into more of west Ukraine was based on the 1919-1920 Polish-Soviet war, and the formation of the West Ukrainian People's Republic.  Have the Riga peace treaty altered based on a slightly more pro-Polish outcome in the war, and form Middleslavia out of the remains of the WUPR.  That would leave Belarus alone, and form up those amalgamated territories into an independent state that doesn't get absorbed as an SSR.  They don't see themselves as Ukrainian or Polish historically, despite speaking Ukrainian in the majority, so they get to be their own country.  Why wouldn't they be forcibly reunified with Ukraine after WWII and the Soviet invasion of Eastern Europe to Berlin is a good question, but I can handwave that as a strong independence movement after the war - not enough to kick the USSR out completely, but enough that they let Serednya Slaviya be its own country.

Which I admit is the same problem I have with Serednya Slaviya as it is now, just Rivne and Volyn oblasts, but I digress.

I was looking for GDP data for Belarusian regions and couldn't find it broken down by oblast.  I did get it for Ukraine, which is why I'm focusing on breaking apart that country historically.  What I put together for the enlarged Serednya Slaviya is a nation of 10,456,000 and a GDP total of 35.08 billion USD.  Which comes to a GDP per capita of only 3,355 USD, so it's still going to be poor...just bigger.  Ukraine's nominal GDP is 4,835 USD, so we're still on the poor side compared to Ukraine.

This is what my brain does - seize on something and not let go and keeps changing the idea with another 'what if' thought.  And I won't lie, it's bloody annoying at times, but I just picture a larger Serednya Slaviya being more able to be independent in its own industry and politically.  What do you guys think?

[glitterboy2098]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brest_Region#Economy

[DOC_Agren]

The more you alter the map...    >:D >:D that grow from it basing on West Ukrainian People's Republic, well that should cause long term issue with Poland over old land claims, as well as long term issue with Ukraine. 
Soviets while you were under their control would not have been happy your "nation" had supported the White Russians and rejected their help against Poland.

[Daryk]

The Hungarians will want a word with you if you reach for Transcarpathia...  ^-^

[Failure16]

Hmm. Might want to ditch the light cav and infantry battalions and invest in more heavy equipment after all, Kamas.  You might end up needing it ;D

[ANS Kamas P81]

Unfortunately that doesn't list the GDP of the Brest region, though it is a pretty detailed breakdown of its industries.

The WUPR was the southern portion of west Ukraine, the Gallicia region.  I'd be expanding its territory if I were to go with the larger region, and as far as land claims go well...pretty much all of Belarus and Ukraine were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, so there's historic claims all around.

The big change comes with the Peace of Riga, and shifting the Polish negotiators to ones aligned with Pilsudski's desires - that pushes the Soviet border back a ways, and gives Poland western Ukraine.  This gets spun off by the Poles in 1922 as the Ukrainian-speaking Serednya Slaviya, and is given its independence that year.  With the famine going on in Russia at the time, plus the continuing Russian civil war, they didn't have the ability to forcibly unify the Ukrainian peoples.

Stalin was more internally focused on the USSR rather than being an expansionist, at least in the years prior to WWII.  During this time Serednya Slaviya got going economically and politically, becoming a successful independent state like its neighbor Poland, though would fall to Soviet domination when the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was signed.  Like much of Eastern Europe, the German invasion in 1941 was seen as liberation from Stalin at first.  After the Soviets drove the Germans out, Serednya Slaviya's government was reformed with the USSR's "assistance" and turned into a client state like other nations in the Warsaw Pact.

That history works for Serednya Slaviya no matter where I put it or how big it is, really...and dammit I feel like I should make things bigger.  That'd give Sere-Slav more industry of its own, where it's still mostly rural but the Lviv area is pretty industrialized and would probably be the capital of the country.  It's also big enough to stand on its own, and I think less likely to be forcibly reincorporated into Ukraine - I was having trouble mentally justifying why a small portion of Ukraine would be kept free and not brought back together.  A larger initial split makes more sense to me.

Transcarpathia...I think I'll stick with the little corner of it that Ukraine currently owns, but give the Hungarian border some healthy respect.

And hah, yeah...I still like the light cavalry force idea, but I suppose I'm going to have to see how many T-72s I end up with - if I go big, there's going to be a bit more than just one Soviet M-R division making up its military.  PT-91s, here we come?

Any counter opinions?  Does making a larger Serednya Slaviya make more sense to you guys or should I keep it small?

[Daryk]

I thought you had a pretty tight story with a small one, but it's your story to do with as you see fit!  :thumbsup:

[NightSarge]

A larger version is usefull in my opinion, as you you can get a betterr industrial base from it.

[DOC_Agren]

I like the smaller nation you were working with..  you were small enough to not be a "threat" to any nation around you. 
if u had been independent from post WWI, maybe Russian might not forced you into Ukraine post WW2

[chanman]

There's an Itch.io project that might be relevant:

https://fezzik21.itch.io/slava-ukraini-the-board-game

It's under development and is supposed to be a Twilight Struggle-influenced turn-based solitaire board game about the first 21 days of the Ukraine war (from the Ukrainian side).

Note that it's name-your-price and the author suggests donating to a relevant charity directly, although they will also be donating net proceeds.

A Serednya Slaviya code red pre-NATO Article 5 may have some similarities. Funny how we were just discussing this...
Edit: The Windows Zip seems to contain Mac files. I've commented and hopefully the author fixes that soon

[ANS Kamas P81]

For keeping Serednya Slaviya small...what justifies their continued existence after WWII as an independent state?  A larger one I could see being kept as a buffer state between the Ukrainian SSR and the West, but little Serednya Slaviya seems too easy to gobble up and reunify with Ukraine.

A larger Sere-Slav also has a larger industry like Nightsarge mentions, letting me produce at least some IFVs and APCs locally. 

[DOC_Agren]

the same thing that kept the Baltic countries as independent states.  Yes Serednya Slaviya is a tiny state, but look at the number of post soviet breakup small states that were formed/came back into existence = Montenegro. 
There honest might have been some post Soviet Breakup who might wanted you to "rejoin" Poland or Ukraine.  Part of why my earlier comment that the nation would have to be prepared to people who would want to change the government POV to match theirs.  The nation might have had more spooks operating in country from many different nations trying to influence your government POV.


 

[ANS Kamas P81]

Whether I go small or "large*", the question of unification with Ukraine is one that becomes big.  I suppose under the military dictatorship in the early 1990s it's not something being considered, but after the overthrow there'd likely be a referendum or two to rejoin Ukraine.  What I need is an independently-minded population, and I suppose with the heavily traditionalist mindset I would have it.  If I go large, I'm still at a low enough population density to keep things rural, especially outside of the Lviv area.

Going large would actually let me have an air force, small but present, instead of an air defense force.  That's something to consider, having a couple squadrons of combat aircraft.

*It'd still only be 40% the size of Poland, so it's not that large.  And less than half the population of Yugoslavia.

[NightSarge]

So we are thinking of a military spending of 15-20 billion dollars.

[ANS Kamas P81]

That's half the GDP of the large version of Serednya Slaviya; it comes out to a total GDP of 35.08 billion.  Military spending for the large version of Serednya Slaviya would peak at 1.038 billion which is 2.96% GDP and what Ukraine's actual spending was in 2021.  Not sure where I got that 4.8% GDP spending before.  Small Serednya Slaviya would only come up to 209 million USD.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170902185627/http://armyapp.forces.gc.ca/SOH/SOH_Content/SOH.ORG.US.00.00.00.00.SE.pdf

Found this. Talk about a detailed toe for the army in 2015!  (It's already out of date, but I find it to be a useful snapshot.)

And this.

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/divided-ukraine-connolly.aspx

It's an interesting look at what would happen if Ukraine divided east and west.  His border is further east than I would put it; I'd leave Kiev in the east and only take the western third of the country.  And of course the same applies to small Serednya Slaviya, though I wouldn't have access to the Lublin basin shale gas field.

[ANS Kamas P81]

It looks like I'll go with a medium-sized Serednya Slaviya instead.  I found this map:



It shows the portion of Ukraine that was given to Poland as part of the Peace of Riga in 1921, which remained part of Poland until the Soviet invasion in 1939 and its reunification with Ukraine.  In my alternate history, the Peace of Riga spun it out into a neutral buffer state between Ukraine and Poland, and it spent 18 years independent until the USSR came.  After 1945 it retains its independence in a notional way, being made a puppet state of the Soviet Union under the Warsaw Pact.

Since it so closely follows the borders of the oblasts, I'll slightly adjust it to fit the oblasts perfectly, and call those five regions all of Serednya Slaviya.  I end up with a country slightly larger than Serbia in area and population, with a total military of 25,384 in the Land Forces and 2,978 in the Air Force.  That's enough for five brigade combat teams; I'm thinking one armored BCT, one "Stryker" BCT with Patria AMVs instead, two light infantry BCTs, a Serbian-style artillery brigade, and a support brigade.  I'm still heavily reliant on my light infantry, just like before, but I've got some heavier forces to support them, including six companies of PT-91 MBTs in the combined arms battalions and the armored cavalry squadron.  That's 84 tanks for the whole army...plus 36 B1 Centauros that replace Stryker MGS in the mechanized infantry BCT.

Armored Brigade
  Headquarters & Headquarters Company
  Combined Arms Battalion (Armored)
  Combined Arms Battalion (Armored)
  Combined Arms Battalion (Infantry)
  Armored Cavalry Squadron
  Artillery Battalion
  Brigade Engineer Battalion
  Brigade Support Battalion
Mechanized Brigade
  Headquarters & Headquarters Company
  Mechanized Infantry Battalion
  Mechanized Infantry Battalion
  Mechanized Infantry Battalion
  Heavy Cavalry Squadron
  Artillery Battalion
  Brigade Engineer Battalion
  Brigade Support Battalion
Infantry Brigade
  Headquarters & Headquarters Company
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Cavalry Squadron
  Artillery Battalion
  Brigade Engineer Battalion
  Brigade Support Battalion
Infantry Brigade
  Headquarters & Headquarters Company
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Infantry Battalion
  Light Cavalry Squadron
  Artillery Battalion
  Brigade Engineer Battalion
  Brigade Support Battalion
Artillery Brigade
  Headquarters & Headquarters Company
  Howitzer Battalion
  Howitzer Battalion
  Howitzer Battalion
  Rocket Artillery Battalion
  Rocket Artillery Battalion
  Brigade Engineer Battalion
  Brigade Support Battalion
Support Brigade
  Military Police Battalion
  Military Police Battalion
  Intelligence Battalion
    Military Intelligence Company
    Counter-Intelligence Company
    Signals-Intelligence Company
  PSYOPs Battalion
  Civil Affairs Battalion
  Mortuary Affairs Company

What else should go into the Support Brigade, as far as other services for the military?

[DOC_Agren]

So what was your relationships with Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, etc.. Post Soviet Breakup?

While defining your military is good, defining your political relationships also tell you who have as friends vrs enemies and how it changes over times.

Also the Little chunk of Ukraine south of you, does it stay Ukrainian or does it spin off to another nation(s)

[ANS Kamas P81]

The little chunk of Ukraine probably stays a Ukrainian exclave, like the Kaliningrad region of Russia.  I picture Serednya Slaviya giving up a tiny corridor there to connect the two regions, without losing any territory in the process.  Maybe something traded on the north edge where the red part of the map seeps past the Rivne oblast's border.

Relations with Poland were always friendly, with a pro-EU mindset for Serednya Slaviya.  The Russian-leaning governments of Ukraine and Belarus (until 2014) put a split in relations, and things haven't always been the smoothest.  More recently Ukraine's shifted into a similarly-aligned mindset, and things got friendly with them after the Maidan protests and the change of government.  Belarus has had cooler relations, but there's still trade going on around all three countries.

EDIT: Since I have three different brigade designs, I worked up the different cavalry squadron for each.  The HHT for the cavalry remains unchanged across each type, and is the same as what was posted on page 4 of this thread.  The individual cavalry troops are below.

Armored BCT                     Mechanized BCT                  Infantry BCT
Cavalry Troop x3                Cavalry Troop x3                Mounted Cavalry Troop x2
  PT-91 Twardy                    B1 Centauro                     Iveco LMV x2
  Patria AMV                      Patria AMV                      Ural 375D 6x6 Truck x2
  Patria AMV NEMO x2              Patria AMV NEMO x2              Iveco LMV (81mm mortar) x2
  Cavalry Platoon x3              Iveco LMV x3                    Cavalry Platoon x3
    Patria AMV x6                 Cavalry Platoon x3                Iveco LMV x6
      Rifle Team                    Patria AMV x2                     Scout Team
      Scout Team                      Rifle Squad               Dismounted Cavalry Troop
    PT-91 Twardy x2                   Scout Team                  Iveco LMV x3
    Patria AMV NEMO                 Iveco LMV x4                  Ural 375D 6x6 Truck
Tank Troop                            Scout Team                  Mortar Section (60mm mortar)
  PT-91 Twardy x2                   B1 Centauro x2                Sniper Squad
  Tank Platoon                      Patria AMV NEMO               Dismounted Cavalry Platoon x3
    PT-91 Twardy x4             Recon Troop                         Iveco LMV
  Tank Platoon                      EBRC Jaguar x2                  Scout Squad x6
    PT-91 Twardy x4               Recon Platoon                       Scout Team x2
  Tank Platoon                      EBRC Jaguar x4
    PT-91 Twardy x4               Recon Platoon
                                    EBRC Jaguar x4
                                  Gun Platoon
                                    B1 Centauro x4

The irony of making a "dismounted cavalry troop" is not lost on me, and I feel sorry for the guys that have to walk that far.  At least the platoon leadership gets an armored vehicle.  Otherwise it's pretty straightforward; the Infantry BCT cavalry squadron is plucked from the TOE pdf I linked above. 

[PsihoKekec]

You know, you probably just butterflied away the 2014 coup in Ukraine as Serednya Slaviya is comprised of oblasts that were the heart of pro-Maidan movement and provided the majority of members of combat groups that battled the police during the protests, without them the government can clear out the protests and ride out the political instability to the next elections although there is good chance that the mirror events of 2014 would happen, with rebellion against government in western oblasts with Western support replacing rebellion against coup junta in eastern oblasts with Russian support.

With Serednya Slaviya in the way the impetus for attaching Transcarpathia to USSR is gone so it is more likely to remain with Czehoslovakia and post separation with Slovakia.

Also, the Rivne nuclear power plant does not get built, instead a powerplant elsewhere in Ukraine is built, possibly Zhitomir or Kharkov plant project starts earlier.

[ANS Kamas P81]

Yeah, that does throw a monkey wrench into things.  But I think there's enough of Ukraine's population that the protests go on anyway.



That shows a map of oblasts where the Regional State Administration buildings were occupied by protestors; there's plenty of revolutionary spirit in central and the rest of western Ukraine to still carry out the revolution and pressure the Rada to depose Yanukovych.

Still, say the protests fail and Yanukovych remains in power until the 2015 elections.  Poroshenko defeats him with a slim majority, starts the EU connections, and Ukraine gets invaded and Crimea annexed a year later than in the OT.  Elect Zelensky in 2019, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine goes off in 2022 just as in the real history.  Or would Yanukovych win the 2015 election, without Serednya Slaviya as part of the country?

The nuclear plant in Rivne probably gets built in Kharkiv, yeah.  Rivne does eventually get a 1000 megawatt reactor built in 2004, but the ones historically built in the 1980s get built in Kharkiv instead.  That gives us a little nuclear energy, but the core power generation is likely natural gas and coal.

I agree on Transcarpathia remaining with Slovakia, that one oblast hanging off disconnected from the rest of Ukraine. 

EDIT: Personally I can see there being enough pro-EU sentiment in the rest of Ukraine that the Maidan protests still end up with the same result, but let's what-if.  Say Yanukovych doesn't get deposed, and the protests aren't as large as they were in the real history.  There's no 2014 election, since he doesn't flee the country, and takes part in the 2015 election for president.  Without Serednya Slaviya's voter base, could he win another election?



That's the results of the 2010 election, where he narrowly defeated Tymoshenko; it's clear that Serednya Slaviya would have been Tymoshenko's core voter base.  Looking at the percentages, I'd say Yanukovych would likely win a 2015 election...so what happens to our neighbor Ukraine in such an event?

[PsihoKekec]

Probably a Syria style civil war, (either during protests or after elections) with Seredny Slaviya being the hub for funneling weapons and advisors to the rebels.

[ANS Kamas P81]

I imagine the Russians would invade quickly in that case to shore up their side of Ukraine, declaring themselves peacekeepers.  Hm, we should explore this alt-history further, this idea intrigues me.

So Yanukovych wins a highly suspect March 2015 election, and things break apart into a civil war starting with a repeat of the Maidan protests.  The Russians insert troops into the Donetsk region soon after, shoring up Yanukovych's government against the western and central regions that are in rebellion.  Tymoshenko and Poroshenko probably retreat to Serednya Slaviya and form a government-in-exile, and Sere-Slav supports the anti-Yanukovych rebels.  Instead of waiting until 2022, Putin sends in troops in a general invasion later in 2015, probably in summer.  Serednya Slaviya petitions for emergency entry into NATO, and gears up to support the rebels.

This would be before Poroshenko would have started the purges of the pro-Russian elements of his military, so there'd be a divide there as well.  I imagine both sides would descend into the kinds of trench warfare we're seeing now, with neither side - the Russians, Yanukovych's people, and the western rebels - getting much in the way of momentum for offensive operations.  There's probably a large number of Serednya Slaviyans that join the rebel army, and I do like the idea of being the main hub for supporting the rebels.

Just like in the real world's war, it becomes an infantry-hungry artilleryfest, and the Ukrainian army is split as to which side it's supporting.  It's an attrition war, and Russia's got the weight of numbers, but neither side can really get going strategically.  Russia would make a drive for Kiev from within Belarus, and probably manage to reach it this time, but the intense fighting stalls out their offensive in the city and they're unable to hit the knockout blow by taking Kiev.

I imagine there'd be pressure on Belarus to join in the "peacekeeping operation" and send troops south to support the Russian forces in the east.  This really doesn't have an end until Russia gives up and goes home, does it - the Ukrainian rebels aren't going to quit, even in "pacified" regions, just like Syria.  And Russia is going to make sure it installs a pro-Russian Yanukovych government...I think the Russians win this one, with sheer numbers on their side.  Say it ends around 2020 with much of the country in ruins, Yanukovych reinstalled as president, and the country under Russian control alongside Belarusian troops.

Serednya Slaviya's going to need a modern army quick.

How's that sound for a butterfly effect?

[PsihoKekec]

First of all Tymoshenko was still in prison at the time of Maidan and would not get a release by the time of 2015 elections. Poroshenko only entered politics when it was absolutely safe for him to do so, thus he would not run in 2015. Thereby the most likely candidate to run against Yanukovich is Victor Yuschenko.

Wy would Putin invade Ukraine that is controlled by President that he is allied to? There is no need for Russians to send troops to Donbass either, their involvement would most likely be similar to that in Syria. The problem for the rebels is that most of the bases and depots are in central and eastern Ukraine, so rebels can't get them, thus firepower scale will massively favor the government. Kiev would be split into government and rebel controlled districts, a brutal urban battle similar to battles of Damascus and Aleppo in Syria. It's possible Starokonstatinovs airbase could hold out like Kuweirs airbase.

Western support would be similar to Russian votrong during Donbass war, sending the rebels same equipment as used by Ukrainian army, so it could be claimed it is actually stuff captured from the army.

Russians would in the start supply the government forces with spare parts (especially for aircraft and helicopters) and munitions, also allowing formation of cossak units and other volunteers. As matters escalated they would probably start doing airstrikes and sending in special forces, later also mercenaries (Wagner). Deployment of regular troops would be more or less in support role, leaving Ukrainians, volunteers and mercenaries do most of the  fighting, while Russian BCGs would bolster them where needed.

I lost track, is Serednya Slaviya in NATO? If not, then during increased Russian involvement a stray cruise missile might hit one of the weapons transfer points. Might want to invest in AAD.

[ANS Kamas P81]

I wasn't thinking about Tymoshenko being in prison still, she wouldn't be released after the Maidan protests in such a situation.  So noted about Poroshenko, Yuschenko as Yanukovych's opponent does make more sense.

My thought about Putin sending troops would be to bolster the pro-government forces under Yanukovych, I didn't think Russia would accept having a civil war on its border without intervention somehow.  Especially if they're claiming to be peacekeepers in the east, freeing up government forces to fight in the central and western portions of the country.

So you're saying they'd have a more hands-off approach, supporting the government forces supplying equipment and training rather than direct forces outside of the volunteers and mercenaries like you mentioned.  That'd drag things out, I think, which would turn the war into a multi-year fight.  Kiev would be a meat grinder for sure, I agree with you there.  It'd end with the city a shambles from the fighting, but ultimately in control of government forces.  That's how I see this eventually ending after several years, with the government forces eventually winning.

Serednya Slaviya isn't a member of NATO when the civil war starts, but that would be an impetus for them to petition to join quickly like Finland and Sweden have in the real world.  So yeah, they'd probably get an "off-course projectile" hitting a transfer point like you suggest, but that wouldn't stop things.  The last thing that Serednya Slaviya wants to see on its border is a pro-Russian Ukraine, so there would definitely be support for the rebels plus a number of volunteers joining their forces.  As far as AAD goes, they've got relatively limited SAM assets - pretty much what you'd find in the MRD or TD of the old Soviet days, so once NATO membership comes through we're probably begging for Patriots to be stationed in-country.

Here's a question that weighs heavily on the civil war in Ukraine - what does the UN do?  Is there an intervention like in Kosovo with a no-fly-zone and troops on the ground, or do they stay out of this one because of the risks of directly fighting the Russians supporting the government forces?

I did some more work on the personnel count for Serednya Slaviya's military.  Under the old Soviet system they had two Motor-Rifle divisions and a Tank division, which after westernization turns into three Armored Brigade Combat Teams, one Stryker BCT, two Infantry BCTs, an Artillery brigade, and a Support brigade.  Once the fighting begins in Ukraine in 2015, they fast-track the purchasing of more modern equipment to replace what they've sold off to other countries and as of the start of the civil war, started sending leftover Soviet hardware to Ukraine.

Fortunately our arms industry is a little better off with the larger size, and it's possible that we're even building new BTR-80s with various upgrades, probably copying the BTR-80A with the 2A72 30mm cannon instead of the 14.5mm machine gun.  We're still going to upgrade our active tanks to PT-91 Twardys, but there should still be a stock of unmodified T-72M1s that we can give to the Ukrainian rebels for support.  I like the idea of claiming that Serednya Slaviya-supplied hardware was supposedly captured from the government forces or was part of Ukraine's arsenal all along.

So the copy of the Stryker BCT is the only one with Patria AMVs, it's probably the most modern of our armed forces.  The three ABCTs are using new and refurbished & upgraded BTR-80As for their troop transports, and combining their tanks give me a total strength of 315 PT-91s.  That's less than half the T-72s I had in the Warsaw Pact days, so even after exports over the years there'd probably still be a number of them to be given to the rebel forces.  Small arms and such, those I'm sure we're producing ourselves, and considering we didn't apply for NATO membership until 2015 the need to match NATO equipment is recent - so we've been producing AKMs and 5.45mm ammunition for a good long while.  The switch to FB Beryls happens after NATO membership.

[DOC_Agren]

I think if you look at the AU, what the UN/NATO does look much like how Syria was handled, or worse Iraq when it was divided post Desert Storm.   

SS military going to have to become "defensive" because once they go overtly offensive, congrads you just joined a civil war and become a legit target.

[PsihoKekec]

Here's a question that weighs heavily on the civil war in Ukraine - what does the UN do?  Is there an intervention like in Kosovo with a no-fly-zone and troops on the ground, or do they stay out of this one because of the risks of directly fighting the Russians supporting the government forces?

UN does nothing because Russia has veto in the Security Council, it is also unlikely that USA would carry out unilateral airstrikes like it did in Syria, this being Russia's doorstep and all. So there is going to weapons aid and sanctions by USA and it's allies.

Once the fighting begins in Ukraine in 2015, they fast-track the purchasing of more modern equipment to replace what they've sold off to other countries and as of the start of the civil war, started sending leftover Soviet hardware to Ukraine.

Keep in mind that until recently, USA was more then willing to sell the hardware it pulling out of service to the countries it sought to bolster for only the price of transport and refit. Thus SS could get on the cheap stuff like OH-58, MRAPs (don't), humvees... Now, all that stuff goes directly to Ukraine.

but there should still be a stock of unmodified T-72M1s that we can give to the Ukrainian rebels for support.  I like the idea of claiming that Serednya Slaviya-supplied hardware was supposedly captured from the government forces or was part of Ukraine's arsenal all along.

Not initially though. In 2014 Ukrainian army used T-64 tanks and a few T-80, T-72s were mothballed in Kharkov, this presented problem for Russians as they scrapped most of their T-64 tanks and thus had only few to give to the rebels, so it became bloody obvious where the tanks are coming from when T-72s started showing up in rebel ranks.

Similarly, in Syria CIA first delivered weapons that could come from Syrian (and Libyan) depots, before going all in and flooding the country with TOWs.

My guess is that initially it will be infantry weapons, including ATGMs and MANPADs, followed by mortars and artillery like ubiquitous D-30, along with copious amount of ammo as most of ammo depots are in government controlled areas. Tanks would be going in once the SS government becomes really worried about the state of rebels and perhaps gets some security guarantees from USA.

[NightSarge]

SS military going to have to become "defensive" because once they go overtly offensive, congrads you just joined a civil war and become a legit target.

That is a very good option to think of your dorctrines to keep you out of a fight.

[ANS Kamas P81]

SS military going to have to become "defensive" because once they go overtly offensive, congrads you just joined a civil war and become a legit target.

Yeah, we're not going to get directly involved in the civil war that way.  We're supportive, but not dumb.

That said, Serednya Slaviya probably will be the number one destination for Ukrainian refugees, like Poland is for the real world.  That's going to massively tax the resources of the country, since there's been over ten million refugees that fled to Poland in the real world - I can see similar numbers going to SS, which only has a native population of seven million.  So there's a humanitarian crisis in Serednya Slaviya going on at the same time.

UN does nothing because Russia has veto in the Security Council, it is also unlikely that USA would carry out unilateral airstrikes like it did in Syria, this being Russia's doorstep and all. So there is going to weapons aid and sanctions by USA and it's allies.

I agree on the US airstrikes not being a thing; the last thing they want is a conflict directly with Russian forces that escalates into a shooting war.  Okay, so the UN stays out of this one.

Keep in mind that until recently, USA was more then willing to sell the hardware it pulling out of service to the countries it sought to bolster for only the price of transport and refit. Thus SS could get on the cheap stuff like OH-58, MRAPs (don't), humvees... Now, all that stuff goes directly to Ukraine.

Yeah, for a while there was damn near free equipment being flooded on the weapons market.  MRAPs I'll pass on, they have their problems, but HMMWVs would get picked up to supplement the Iveco LMV in less combat-heavy roles.  I just don't want to absorb a large amount of US hardware; the thought was an army organized like the Americans but with European and ex-Soviet hardware.  Which leads to...

Not initially though. In 2014 Ukrainian army used T-64 tanks and a few T-80, T-72s were mothballed in Kharkov, this presented problem for Russians as they scrapped most of their T-64 tanks and thus had only few to give to the rebels, so it became bloody obvious where the tanks are coming from when T-72s started showing up in rebel ranks.

I did a quick read and found out the T-64 and T-80 were both built in Ukraine.  According to Wikipedia, the T-64 filled in the Tank Division's tanks, while the Motor-Rifle Division was populated with T-62s.  With one TD and two MRDs that gives Serednya Slaviya 328 T-64s and 440 T-62s in the 1960s and 70s.  By the time of the breakup of the USSR, we'd have bought a few Ukrainian diesel-powered T-80UDs, probably a battalion's worth.  Replacing those with PT-91s frees up T-64s and T-80s to send to Ukraine; I imagine the T-62s were sold off prior to that, probably in the early years after the military dictatorship ended and the army began its reforms.

My guess is that initially it will be infantry weapons, including ATGMs and MANPADs, followed by mortars and artillery like ubiquitous D-30, along with copious amount of ammo as most of ammo depots are in government controlled areas. Tanks would be going in once the SS government becomes really worried about the state of rebels and perhaps gets some security guarantees from USA.

We're still using AKMs around the start of the civil war in Ukraine, so there's production of those that can be fired up to supplement the rebels.  Serednya Slaviya also never stopped using RPG-7s, and has those to spare; ATGMs would be a little harder to let go because of their price and relative scarcity.  I'd have to go through FM 100-2-3 to really total up what can be sent to Ukraine, but that's probably a waste of time in all honesty. 

As far as the civil war goes, how long does it last?  Is it still being fought in the modern day?  The majority of the weapons depots are on the government's side of the country like you mentioned, but between what's kept in the western and northern parts of the country plus all the military aid being funneled through SS there'd be some kind of parity of forces, at least until the Russians come in on the side of the government.

I figure that Yanukovych's government forces would eventually win, with the Russians supporting them with both arms and troops being what gives the Ukrainian government forces a victory.  That puts a pro-Russian Ukraine on our border, and probably leaves the refugees in SS where they are; that population bloat is going to really cause problems.  At least it ends with Serednya Slaviya in NATO, begging for EU support for its refugee crisis.

Man this thread has gone far afield of its original intent.  Not that it's a bad thing, but I hope it's been interesting to you guys.