Can The FedSuns Save Itself In the iLClan Era?

[Valkerie]

Answering the question myself, I think yes.  Now, I think that's going to come with some help from external forces.  Wolf's Dragoons are messed up, new player on Terra who may have a grudge to settle with the Combine, and the Bears sitting there just starring over the fence.  Julian has things headed in the right direction, and with the new chaos around the Combine, an opening has presented itself.

My fellow FedRats, what do you think?

[Templar87]

Given matters as outlined in ilClan, and assuming the DCMS and CCAF don't suddenly get buffs, yes, I think the FedSuns can pull it off, at least crushing the Dragon's Tongue and - hopefully - leathering the swine of Liao off Chesterton.

[Orwell84]

Ditto. It helps that Daoshen is focused on Terra at this stage, giving Julian a quiet Capellan front (for a short while anyway).

From reading the Suns' and Combine part of ilClan it looks as though the next battle of New Avalon will be a part of the Dominions Divided sourcebook. Hopefully that'll be how the Dragon's Tongue is sliced off and the Combine chased back to the worlds Harrison Davion allowed them to steal during the Victoria War.

If a Third Combine-Dominion War breaks out, or even if the Bears just start clawing at the Combine's border, that would be a major help. Toranaga seems to consider the Ghost Bears a lesser foe than the FedSuns. If they give him a rude awakening the Suns will almost certainly reclaim New Avalon or at least isolate it by taking the systems to the 'east'.

As far as reclaiming Chesterton as well... it would be a nice symbolic victory over Liao. Otherwise, is the world important enough to risk reigniting the Capellan front?

[Metallgewitter]

Which map is actually the most accurate for this era (after the fall of Terra)? I have seen a map where New Avalon was still occupied but most of the "tongue" that cut into the Fed Suns was reconquered (plus a good portion of the Draconis March though that was thanks to Eruptio. I wonder though if the Combine and Confederation will continue their cooperation or if their two prong drive to Terra was a one time alliance (that was a note from one of the Shrapnel books). The Suns have a slight advantage in knowing what actually happened on Terra and who knows how many former RAF soldiers (and even former Republic leadership) defect to the Suns.

[Templar87]

As far as reclaiming Chesterton as well... it would be a nice symbolic victory over Liao. Otherwise, is the world important enough to risk reigniting the Capellan front?

I believe it is, yes. Daoshen has demonstrated that his word - and, by extension, Danai's (even leaving aside all the reasons Julian can't trust her already, like her massive array of war crimes) - is worthless, and the Capellan front already alight (with him repudiating the latest ceasefire - pathetic and unlikely to be observed by the Liaos as it was - after his fruitbat cousin Ki-linn immolated herself because how dare the Federated Suns stop House Liao murdering its way across any worlds it likes!). That war is live, if on a slow burn right now, and ignoring the threat from the Confederation is one of the reasons that Yvonne and Harrison [to the point of Harrison outright lying to major chunks of the AFFS High Command including Julian himself] left Julian (and to a lesser extent Caleb) with gigantic raging legitimacy crises.


Also, I really don't see Julian being okay with letting the Liaos' publicly broadcast atrocities carry on any longer than he has to.

[Orwell84]

Which map is actually the most accurate for this era (after the fall of Terra)? I have seen a map where New Avalon was still occupied but most of the "tongue" that cut into the Fed Suns was reconquered (plus a good portion of the Draconis March though that was thanks to Eruptio.

I think that the Shattered Fortress map of January 3151 is the only one thus far for that region. The only map AFAIK dated after is the one in Tamar Rising and that obviously doesn’t apply here.

I believe it is, yes. Daoshen has demonstrated that his word - and, by extension, Danai's (even leaving aside all the reasons Julian can't trust her already, like her massive array of war crimes) - is worthless, and the Capellan front already alight (with him repudiating the latest ceasefire - pathetic and unlikely to be observed by the Liaos as it was - after his fruitbat cousin Ki-linn immolated herself because how dare the Federated Suns stop House Liao murdering its way across any worlds it likes!). That war is live, if on a slow burn right now, and ignoring the threat from the Confederation is one of the reasons that Yvonne and Harrison [to the point of Harrison outright lying to major chunks of the AFFS High Command including Julian himself] left Julian (and to a lesser extent Caleb) with gigantic raging legitimacy crises.


Also, I really don't see Julian being okay with letting the Liaos' publicly broadcast atrocities carry on any longer than he has to.

Agreed with all of the above, I’d be happy to see the Wolves and Davions administer some backside-whopping to the Capellans. My question is more about whether the Suns has the resources to take and hold both New Avalon and Chesterton, or if Julian has to prioritise one over the other.

It’s been some time since I read Shattered Fortress but I recall Julian beating back the Capellans and then making peace precisely so he can the breathing space needed to reclaim New Avalon.

Pity he doesn’t have any means of getting the RasDom to begin fighting the Combine. An ‘enemy of my enemy’ pact between the two states might benefit the Suns.

[Templar87]

Agreed with all of the above, I’d be happy to see the Wolves and Davions administer some backside-whopping to the Capellans. My question is more about whether the Suns has the resources to take and hold both New Avalon and Chesterton, or if Julian has to prioritise one over the other.

It’s been some time since I read Shattered Fortress but I recall Julian beating back the Capellans and then making peace precisely so he can the breathing space needed to reclaim New Avalon.

Yes, but as of the latest material - specifically Blood Will Tell - Daoshen has declared, "Screw that, it's war MFers!" after Ki-linn decided to set herself on fire because how dare the FedSuns free New Syrtis from us. He's currently focussing everything towards Terra, but has made it clear there's no more peace in the offing (not that his word was worth anything there anyway, considering the Capellans gleefully breaking every agreement they've ever signed over the last century and a half of setting time, but for whatever reason, Julian was treating it seriously).

Pity he doesn’t have any means of getting the RasDom to begin fighting the Combine. An ‘enemy of my enemy’ pact between the two states might benefit the Suns.

I think that the Combine is going to take care of that for him, considering their routinely raiding the Bears in strength, apparently angling for the Third Combine-Dominion War (or, "Oh God Why Didn't We Learn Our Lesson The Last Two Times").

[MarauderD]

Absolutely—but I don’t think anyone in universe gets unvarnished victories anymore.  We won’t see a return to 3025 borders.  But I’m optimistic we’ll get New Avalon and the dragons tongue back in some campaign that will be a reconquest of former Davion worlds in the Crucis and Draconis Marches. 

It isn’t worth risking a two front war to get back Chesterton.  That one stings, but I think it is truly gone.

[Templar87]

It isn’t worth risking a two front war to get back Chesterton.  That one stings, but I think it is truly gone.

That's the thing - the two-front war already exists, and Julian redoing Harrison's reign and pretending it's not happening won't work, I'd hope he's learned that much (along with never trust a Liao, hyphenated or not). And not at least trying to free Chesterton means that Julian's still shaky legitimacy starts bleeding the gains from CERBERUS and PERCEVAL, risking internal conflict when that's the last thing the Suns needs right now.


Julian doesn't have the option - even assuming for a minute that Daoshen was willing to stop shooting at the Suns in the long or even medium term, which neither he nor War Crimes Barbie are; the declaration of New Syrtis as "ancestrally Capellan" proves that - of ignoring the Capellans.

[MDFification]

The Taurians are getting back together. Could mean a third active front, or the Feds could work with them against the Capellans (who've conquered a bunch of their worlds recently on the Laconis front), if Julian's a statesman with vision.

[MarauderD]

The dream would be to get back some production facilities.  Not that I think this would happen--but if the Suns gets back Marduk or Quentin, that would enable some further consolidation.  FedSuns haven't ruled those since 3028/3039, but the mechs coming out of there would help with the reconquest. 

The DCMS got to use Davion Black Knights and Atlases coming out of Robinson, about time we return the favor....

[Middcore]

or the Feds could work with them against the Capellans

Sorry, putting aside centuries-old enmities is only allowed when it works in the Confederation's favor (see Andurien).

[BrianDavion]

yeah it'd be nice if the writers remembered for once that the FWL actually has a history of CONFLICT with the capcon.  it's one of the most tiring things about battletech's history, the the FWL and CC have been buddies more often then not. I mean by rights the assisination of Jessica Marik was an act of war, no ifs ands or buts. The FWL should bloody well seek vengence

[Middcore]

yeah it'd be nice if the writers remembered for once that the FWL

[BrianDavion]

they did get a novel recently. one where a rogue maskivora officer killed the captain-general and her husband, the mask where brought in to help by Danni-Centrella Liao and promptly covered for his escape.

aaaand the FWL didn't immediatly declare war on the capcon.

[GreekFire]

The dream would be to get back some production facilities.  Not that I think this would happen--but if the Suns gets back Marduk or Quentin, that would enable some further consolidation.  FedSuns haven't ruled those since 3028/3039, but the mechs coming out of there would help with the reconquest. 

Not to be a pedant, but the FedSuns did control Marduk during the Republic interim. More Orochis probably ended up in FedSuns hands than in Drac ones because of it (well, at least up until the Dracs retook the planet, at least).

[Middcore]

they did get a novel recently. one where a rogue maskivora officer killed the captain-general and her husband, the mask where brought in to help by Danni-Centrella Liao and promptly covered for his escape.

aaaand the FWL didn't immediatly declare war on the capcon.

I am aware. I'm just cynical enough to half expect the FWL to fade into the background again now, maybe after being smacked around by the Wolves some in Empire Alone. Hey, you're a whole faction again, minus a few more-or-less significant pieces, what more do ya want?

Immediately declaring war on the Confederation was probably unrealistic considering the League's military resources and deployment at the time, but trusting Capellans to "help" to begin with makes Nikol & friends look like total fools. The Capellans get to clown somebody once per book now though, it's the law. You know they lost the 4th Succession War, after all.

[MarauderD]

Not to be a pedant, but the FedSuns did control Marduk during the Republic interim. More Orochis probably ended up in FedSuns hands than in Drac ones because of it (well, at least up until the Dracs retook the planet, at least).

Fair point--and something I did remember--but the AFFS needs fresh machines now--because losing production on New Avalon during the occupation is a MASSIVE amount of war material, right?

[Colt Ward]

Maybe . . .

One thing to remember, Alaric actually knows Julian and has fought him several times over the two decades or so of the Black Out.  The only thing that will delay the Wolf Empire and Clan Star League from going towards the Suns would IMO be the Caps & Dracs coming after them.

I look forward to the pending CapCon civil war as Danai gets set to toss Daoshen.  I still think it is funny some folks want to paint her a monster with war crimes when, IIRC, it was not conclusively proven she did it- her command under a superior officer?  Case can be made, but anything else is filtered through a biased POV in a sourcebook.

But right now Julian is failing . . . he has no heir nor a prospect of an heir.

[Lord Harlock]

But right now Julian is failing . . . he has no heir nor a prospect of an heir.

Other than nobles that we don’t know about and Daoshen, who has heirs in Battletech? And those with heirs aka Daoshen, have an heir Danai who is no spring chicken at 44 in 3152. Captain General Nikol Marik should be married as well since she has no heirs or prospects either. Julian isn’t an outlier in this situation, and to be fair, the whole of nobility in Battletech forgot to have an heir and a spare.

In short, the nobility needs to stop being like Prince Lester Cameron-Jones of Regulus.

[Colt Ward]

All of those realms though are more stable however.  Heck, ONE of those House leaders does not need a heir- Yori's life might be shorter if she created one.  Creating or taking steps to creating a heir is the only 'easy' sign of stability the FedSuns have at this stage.

I have barely got into Tamar Rising, but it will be disappointing if that is not finally addressed in those factions.

[BrianDavion]

Maybe . . .

One thing to remember, Alaric actually knows Julian and has fought him several times over the two decades or so of the Black Out.  The only thing that will delay the Wolf Empire and Clan Star League from going towards the Suns would IMO be the Caps & Dracs coming after them.

I look forward to the pending CapCon civil war as Danai gets set to toss Daoshen.  I still think it is funny some folks want to paint her a monster with war crimes when, IIRC, it was not conclusively proven she did it- her command under a superior officer?  Case can be made, but anything else is filtered through a biased POV in a sourcebook.

But right now Julian is failing . . . he has no heir nor a prospect of an heir.

I doubt it, Tamar rising early on notes that Alaric'll need to "clean house" before anything else happens.

right now he's got a challanger to the title of jade falcon khan in the form of Jiyi Christu and the Aiyla merchant league plus whatever comes from empire alone...

and then he wants to punish the DC for killing the nova cats (see his internal monologue in hour of the  wolf)
Alaric's got tons on his plate before he can really think of the fedsuns.

[Colt Ward]

Just because he wants to whack the DC does not make it special.  He wants to replace all the Great Houses, and for a easy early win that means something- it is the FS.  The LC is fractured so why bother, the League he has cowed & they have Foxes to contend with internally so no rush, the CC and DC are the strongest neighbors so besides checking their advances neither are easy wins . . .

 . . . but then again, the Cappies are in the final book . . . which may deal with their challenge and loss to the Wolf League.

[VensersRevenge]

The same factors also makes the FedSuns a faction that can be won over diplomatically, proving that Alaric does not need to force everyone into the Star League.

[Metallgewitter]

Just because he wants to whack the DC does not make it special.  He wants to replace all the Great Houses, and for a easy early win that means something- it is the FS.  The LC is fractured so why bother, the League he has cowed & they have Foxes to contend with internally so no rush, the CC and DC are the strongest neighbors so besides checking their advances neither are easy wins . . .

 . . . but then again, the Cappies are in the final book . . . which may deal with their challenge and loss to the Wolf League.

If that is the case he should really read the history of the early Terran Hegemony. They tried to reconquer all their planets and what happened? One epic defeat over Syrma when a huge chunk of the Hegemony fleet was torn to shreds due to poor leadership. And it might happen again. Even if the Empire is huge you need troops to conquer AND garrison all planets at once. The Capellans are learning this lesson. they have strong units to win battles but haven't really learned how to garrison hostile planets.  Alaric will have to learn to build alliances otherwise he will be replaced with someone else. For now Terra is safe behind a wall but this wall is only a short term solution (just as Fortress Republic was only a short term solution that did not work out or better to say was not utilized to it's most potential) but what if Terra is cut of from supply runs from the Foxes or his own Empire? Then you have a lot of factories that producxe nothing due to lacking resources.

[Colt Ward]

Veners- Julian is going to surrender and give up the control/leadership of the Federated Suns from the Davion line?  Because his goal is to replace the Great Houses.

The situation is different than the Hegemony- the League has been scared to strike though it seems they might with the Wolves gone.  The Lyrans?  A raging dumpster fire posing no threat.  The FedSuns would list the Wolves as their 3rd place threat, simply b/c the Wolves are not shooting at them right now while the Dracs are, and the Cappies were . . . and will be again.  So unlike the Hegemony, the Wolves just have to worry about two sources of fighting.

It simply comes down to the same reasons to leave the FedSuns front alone could be a argument for making them first.

[VensersRevenge]

I'm assuming that Alaric's plans will allow ruling lines to stay in charge if they agree to certain concessions, if only because TPTB have to realize that removing the main protagonists, antagonists, and the Mariks would be an incredibly poor idea from a sales standpoint.

[Colt Ward]

I never said Alaric would succeed.  I said his intention was to completely replace them . . . besides, he is a Davion in his own right.

[VensersRevenge]

If TPTB think that Alaric Ward will count as enough of a Davion to keep FedSuns fans engaged, their opinion of us is even lower than I thought.

[Colt Ward]

He is Hanse's grandson . . . have to narrow down what you are talking about- either IC claims or OOC perspective.  Alaric has a valid, forget the 'legal' stuff because for the purpose of this it is about might, claim to the throne on New Avalon.  His ending negotiating position would be for Julian to abdicate the throne to Alaric . . . and I do not think that is something Julian would ever agree to, either MWDA/Bonfire Julian or post ER3145 Julian.

So no, there would be no negotiation of the FedSuns joining the new Star League that both sides could agree to IMO.