Butcher's Bill: June 3152 DCMS vs. AFFS

[MarauderD]

I reread Dominions Divided these last couple evenings and took some notes.  Without a comprehensive Field Manual 3152 type product, I thought I might list out what I found and see if it was of any interest to the Inner Sphere aficionados we have here.

DCMS confirmed losses, as of June 3152
5th Sword of Light (Elite/Reliable)  Destroyed on New Avalon, dying to the last MechWarrior when Kanrei Toranaga was captured. 
2nd Genyosha (Veteran/Fanatical)  Damaged on New Avalon, reformed with Ryuken-hachi as Black Sword.  Destroyed on Greeley.
Ryuken-hachi (Elite/Fanatical) Damaged on New Avalon, reformed with 2nd Genyosha as Black Sword.  Destroyed on Greeley.
Ryuken-san (Veteran/Reliable) Damaged in Dragon's Tongue campaign, Destroyed on Greeley.
11th Ghost (Veteran/Questionable) Damaged in Dragon's Tongue campaign, Destroyed on Greeley.

As with all BattleTech events, even when clearly stated that these commands were destroyed, there may be some survivors.  They may even exist in paper shortly afterwards.  Sword of Light, Genyosha, and Ryuken commands tend to get rebuilt.  As to the timeframe, who can say.  Personally, I've painted up 20 mechs in 5th Sword colors, so while I can always use them to represent the Combine, I'd love them to reform soon.   

AFFS Losses, Conjecture
5th Avalon Hussars LCT (Veteran/Reliable) Savaged on Plymouth fighting Black Sword, lost two companies on Mauckport to 2nd NS Regs.
1st Kestrel Grenadiers RCT (Elite/Fanatical) Fought on Mansfield, "crushed" in a pincer movement on Tsamma by the 2nd NS Regulars.

So strangely, there are no confirmed units destroyed for the AFFS.  Between the Rec. Guides, and a few other sources, we've heard of Davion Irregulars and Davion Auxiliaries.  Both appear again here in Dominions Divided.  For example, the Second Davion Irregulars becomes the core of the new First Robinson Rangers.  I'm wondering if between the lines, we can assume that units that took heavy losses would be reinforced or draw on these ad hoc units. 

As for the Kestrel Grenadiers--back in 3025 they had some cool unit history.  Feels like since then, I've never seen a unit described as Elite meet with so many losses.  Poor guys are like the clown car of the AFFS, taking a literary beating to represent the fortunes of the nation. 

Anyway, if anyone was curious, there you go. 

[Decoy]

I'd say you need to look as far back as the beginning of the Rift campaign to get a true indication of the scale of things. Then you need to look at the quality of replacements. Declaring an ad hoc group of Mechwarriors the new Robinson Rangers is good and all, but are they of the same level?

[Metallgewitter]

Just take a look at the Assault Guards. The unit has taken so many beatings it's a wonder the unit still exists on the rolls. Heck they got shamed by a light Mech unit until eric decided to play "hoard the Mech" by placing minefields severly slowing the light Mechs.

As for making up looses. Don't forget that Palmyra despite being the grave of 13 combat units held a significant amount of survivors. Erik granted all of them a rise in rank and all of them decided to keep fighting. I would bet that those veterans filled holes in existing units. In terms of losses for the Combine: those losses seem rather light in the amount of units lost but one has to remember that the Dragon's tongue was mostly guarded by Wolf's Dragoons. There is even a specific mention in DD that Julian and Erik were surpised by the low amount of defenders and were wondering if the success of the Combine really hinged more on Wolf's Dragoons then actual DCMS units

[VensersRevenge]

Completely losing five elite or veteran 'Mech regiments is a pretty big blow, especially when the DCMS has to turn to fight the Ghost Bears

[Dahmin_Toran]

Completely losing five elite or veteran 'Mech regiments is a pretty big blow, especially when the DCMS has to turn to fight the Ghost Bears

Don't remind me. 

[Decoy]

Oh hey. it was perfectly valid tactic to throw Toranaga's forces to the foxes. Now Yori's forces are now more politically reliable and resolutely behind the coordinator!  Furthermore, the remaining DCMS units will want to prove that they're not like those that got tossed out of the FedSuns. Their ferocity in their desire to redeem the Dragon's honor will surely serve the DCMS in good stead!

[Minemech]

 It is quite likely that Clan Ghost Bear is in for a smacking. The ball is in the TPTB's court, but there are excellent opportunities for character development.

[Metallgewitter]

The wording in DD surely makes it sound as if the Bears are in for a very rude awakening. And Yori probably wants to show that she can defeat a "real" Clan (the destruction of the Nova Cats while impactful can be chalked up to "That Clan was weak"). Plus showing that the "defeat" against the Fedsuns was Toranaga's fault not hers.

[MarauderD]

The wording in DD surely makes it sound as if the Bears are in for a very rude awakening. And Yori probably wants to show that she can defeat a "real" Clan (the destruction of the Nova Cats while impactful can be chalked up to "That Clan was weak"). Plus showing that the "defeat" against the Fedsuns was Toranaga's fault not hers.

Maybe--but I don't think the DCMS denuded the RasDom border for their adventures in the FedSuns.  I just think that if it came down to a knock down, drag out style contest, they will miss those 5 Veteran/Elite formations. 

[BrianDavion]

ohh they'll absolutely miss those 5 regiments,  I don't think the Bear/Combine conflcit is going to be a clean quick one for eaither party. the term "short victorious war" was used which makes me think the conflict's going to become a Quagmire.

[Metallgewitter]

Maybe--but I don't think the DCMS denuded the RasDom border for their adventures in the FedSuns.  I just think that if it came down to a knock down, drag out style contest, they will miss those 5 Veteran/Elite formations.

That is FM 3145 information but the RasDom border with the Combine was seriously understaffed. Plus the Combine also focused more on taking more Republic planets (until Operation Clarity broke the alliance with House Liao). Now comes the real question: how laong can the units on the Rasdom border hold until reinforcements arrive? And are said reinforcements even strong enough? I think the one Elite unit on the RasDom border was the 1st Sword of Light the rest was I think made up of Pesht Regulars. Of course what could swamp the Bears would be huge Guerilla movements

[BrianDavion]

thing is with the HPG net being down bringing in reinforcements will be slow, especially at anything more then a trickle of 1 regiment here 1 there, by time the DCMS rallies their reserves the bears could be on Luthien

[tassa_kay]

The Bears could be on Luthien immediately, considering they're only a jump away from it as of the end of DD.

[Metallgewitter]

Yeah the dominion stands on Port Arthur bascially right next to Luthien. But there is one point to think of: the Dominion apparently only send one Galaxy for this short war. the rest of the touman is either in dissaray from the short civil war or guarding the capitals of Alshain and Rasalhague. They also seem to have an invasionof Luthien in preparation. And while enlistment rose thanks to this war it is the same as for the Combine: green recruits filling the ranks to make up for the severe loss in manpower especially in experience. And as stated several times: it almost sounds as if the Bears are set up for failure or at the very least for a rude awakening. And as a furhter note: the reinforcmenets Alaric might be expecting will not be quick to turn up.

[tassa_kay]

Yeah the dominion stands on Port Arthur bascially right next to Luthien. But there is one point to think of: the Dominion apparently only send one Galaxy for this short war. the rest of the touman is either in dissaray from the short civil war or guarding the capitals of Alshain and Rasalhague. They also seem to have an invasionof Luthien in preparation. And while enlistment rose thanks to this war it is the same as for the Combine: green recruits filling the ranks to make up for the severe loss in manpower especially in experience. And as stated several times: it almost sounds as if the Bears are set up for failure or at the very least for a rude awakening. And as a furhter note: the reinforcmenets Alaric might be expecting will not be quick to turn up.

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

[BrianDavion]

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

I mean as much as the dracs suffering massive losses due to orbital bombardment would be extreme karmic justic, I doubt that'll happen.


That said if the DC gains the services of the MAC that could be sufficant to turn the tide of a war otherwise going badly

[Metallgewitter]

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

Considering how much resources the Combine wasted just to down the Ursa Major during the 2nd Dominion combine war if that happens I can see them throw everything and the kitchen sink to down that Leviathan with impunity.

[tassa_kay]

Y'all need to update your humor firmware. 

That said if the DC gains the services of the MAC that could be sufficant to turn the tide of a war otherwise going badly

This is the only thing in DD that I'm truly interested in seeing play out. That picture was foreshadowing to the nth degree and I'm surprised it didn't get any actual mention in the text.

[Shin_Fenris]

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

This made me chuckle more than I'd like to admit.

[Lorcan Nagle]

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

Maybe they'll remember the massive network of naval laser-toting satellites BattleSpace said the Combine were building in the system.

[Decoy]

That was probably wrecked and left unrepaired after the retreat from Luthien in the Jihad?

Also , maybe they'll remember the RasDom's hatred of all things mercenary! DEATH TO MAC!

[Church14]

And as a furhter note: the reinforcmenets Alaric might be expecting will not be quick to turn up.

Can you elaborate? I don’t get how Alaric is involved in the Bears invasion of DC?


If you meant he expects Bears to come to Terra, then he’s a blithering idiot. I feel like someone has had to explain to him that his demand and the following civil war burned that bridge.

[Decoy]

I think it's a reference to the Snow Ravens moving their way from the Periphery. Given the Raven force is likely to be Warship escorted, there's not much anyone can do unless the Ravens are stopping to take every system along the way or the DC has forces to do something about it.

[MarauderD]

Who needs the rest of the touman when you can just throw the Alshain into the mix (with Valkyrie Galaxy attached in its entirety) and really make Black Luthien earn its nickname? 

The Bears already took Yamarovka, Asgard, and Port Arthur at the end of DD.  How crazy would it be to have the Combine have its capital occupied so quickly after they had taken New Avalon?

[tassa_kay]

The Bears already took Yamarovka, Asgard, and Port Arthur at the end of DD.  How crazy would it be to have the Combine have its capital occupied so quickly after they had taken New Avalon?

I think it’d be poetic justice, personally.

[Metallgewitter]

Can you elaborate? I don’t get how Alaric is involved in the Bears invasion of DC?


If you meant he expects Bears to come to Terra, then he’s a blithering idiot. I feel like someone has had to explain to him that his demand and the following civil war burned that bridge.

Too be honest yeah I would say that Alaric expects the Bears to be at his beck and call now that they have decided to join. Though DD also mentions in the end that the Bears launch their war against the combine to show Alaric that they are worthy. Which I would assume would make Alaric go "Huuhhh?" because he needs all the troops he can get to actually defend Terra. Let's not forget Wolf Clan warriors are becoming a decidely small minority with each battle they fight. Othar is raiding the sibkos to defend the Empire and if the FWL war goes as expected (a total steamroll of the Empire) trueborn Wolves will become very rare

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

That was probably wrecked and left unrepaired after the retreat from Luthien in the Jihad?

Also , maybe they'll remember the RasDom's hatred of all things mercenary! DEATH TO MAC!

As if the authors would miss an opportunity to remove another WarShip from the setting.

[Minemech]

 The worst scenario for the Bears is that they ultimately lose Rasalhague and Alshain. This is neither an impossible nor improbable scenario. The worst case for the Wolves is that Nikol is bribed to send a few line regiments and aerospace assets to support the Capellan invasion of Terra, probably on Mars, with the Combine receiving a similar treatment. Do not think that Yori would not be willing, it means erasing a possible source of future heartburn, reinforcing her Clan-killer status, and possibly getting further aid against the Bears afterward.

[Metallgewitter]

The worst scenario for the Bears is that they ultimately lose Rasalhague and Alshain. This is neither an impossible nor improbable scenario. The worst case for the Wolves is that Nikol is bribed to send a few line regiments and aerospace assets to support the Capellan invasion of Terra, probably on Mars, with the Combine receiving a similar treatment. Do not think that Yori would not be willing, it means erasing a possible source of future heartburn, reinforcing her Clan-killer status, and possibly getting further aid against the Bears afterward.

I doubt Nikol would actually go after Terra. Kincaid already gave her a good reason to not go after Terra and rather focus on her occupied worlds.

The nightmare scenario for the Bears would be if the Horses decide to invade the Dominion to get another route to Terra. Nothing makes for an easier target then a distracted opponent who also lost 30% of his manpower especially for a Khan who just took over and wants to proove he is better then his predecessor. After all Rasalhague is right next to New Oslo which the Horses took during the IlClan trial. And, if the war against the Combine turns south I could also see a new flare up of the just quelled civil war. Right now Joiners and Deniers are more or less bound by this supposed short war. If it goes long or Heaven forbid the Dominion starts warcriming again like in the 2nd Dominion-Combine war I can see a real breaking point coming. Though to be fair without HPG such news would probably only travel really slow.

[Church14]

Too be honest yeah I would say that Alaric expects the Bears to be at his beck and call now that they have decided to join. Though DD also mentions in the end that the Bears launch their war against the combine to show Alaric that they are worthy. Which I would assume would make Alaric go "Huuhhh?" because he needs all the troops he can get to actually defend Terra. Let's not forget Wolf Clan warriors are becoming a decidely small minority with each battle they fight. Othar is raiding the sibkos to defend the Empire and if the FWL war goes as expected (a total steamroll of the Empire) trueborn Wolves will become very rare

Alaric turned away the Rasalhague Dominion and effectively demanded that they come back to him as Clan Ghost Bear. There is no way he has no intel coming in during the RasDom civil war that tells him that’s not happening. That there isn’t a Clan Ghost Bear anymore.

Which, his demand in DD/AQoS was already breathtakingly stupid. I can’t believe that going forward the story team is going to make Alaric a blistering idiot who thinks someday the Bears will be there.