Would/Could/Should the GB Dominion & Tamar Pact have a non-aggression agreement?

[Colt Ward]

The latest Shrapnel has a scenario, Raid on Tomans, where the Tamar Pact has sent a force to be the garrison of Tomans in Jan 3152 after that world joins the Pact.

By June 3152, the Ghost Bears have sorted themselves out enough to explore the worlds abandoned by the Jade Falcons with a emphasis on taking production on Arcturus and Pandora.  The Rasalhague Galaxy is the first into former Falcon territory, landing a assault cluster on Tomans.

Both sides fought each other for a while but during one breaks, Star Colonel Lena recommended a cease fire while both sides went to higher for orders.  The Ghost Bear officer was suggesting the two nations have a non-aggression agreement to give each a secure border and let them focus on other sectors.  She mentally compared it to the FRR providing a buffer state for the Combine in the previous century, I would expect her report would suggest that to her chain of command.

Would this realpoltik appeal to both factions?  Which might be more interested in it?

As far as battlefield results having a impact . . . playing it out now, just to see the results.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

I suspect it would appeal easily to the Pact.  Not so sure about the Dominion, given its current state of upheaval.

[Deadborder]

It's the Ghost Bears. They don't like being friends with anyone.

[I am Belch II]

The Ghost Beara have changed their opinion on many of things, so who knows.

[Colt Ward]

My results of the battle would have definitely impacted the diplomacy . . .

The First Tyr assault mech star was 2 Kodiak 6s, Executioner (chose L for some range), Mad Dog S, Mad Dog III Prime.  Vehicle star was wonky too, 3 Hachiman (AAA) . . . random rolls, lol.

Meanwhile the Pact force ended up with 3 Falcon heavies (Shadow Cat II 4, Jade Hawk 2, Hel Prime) along with a LOT of mixed tech like the Crusader 10S, Flashman 10E, and Atlas 8-S which resulted in a lot of Gauss Rifles & Heavy Gauss Rifle (6 combined).  Also ended up with a Marksman (LPPC) as a heavy vehicle which drifted a round right onto some Elementals.

Pact got lucky . . . same turn a Hollander II hiding in the trees put a Gauss slug (only hit for everything on 10s) into one Kodiak's CT for 2 TACs, engine & gyro.  Other Kodiak had a TSM active Hatchetman jump behind it after taking a Gauss slug to the LTR . . . which the Hatchetman put his hatchet into the gaping wound that turn.  While the backshot Kodiak and Mad Dog III Prime wrecked the Shadow Cat II 4 in that same exchange, it still managed to put a Gauss and LRMs into the Mad Dog III's side torso to open it up & crit a LRM20.

In one turn, while the Pact lost a single heavy mech the Bears had two assaults crippled into forced withdraw and a heavy get beat on too.

[Natasha Kerensky]

As a small, upstart nation in an unstable corner of the Inner Sphere, the Pact would want peace and stable borders with as many neighbors as possible, doubly so for big neighbors like the Dominion that threaten to gobble the Pact up just due to their sheer size.  The only exception would any neighbor that the Pact is targeting for expansion, and even then, it may make sense to fake peace until invasion time.

For the Dominion, it’s a matter of timing.  If Tomans happens after the Dominion has started its Combine offensive or is in the middle of its Civil War, then yeah, the Dominion would appreciate the stable border so more of its focus can be pointed internally or at the Combine.  If Tomans happens well before the Dominion knows it will be going on the offensive against the Combine or is embroiled in rebellion, then it’s hard to see the Dominion seeing the Pact as more than a speed bump in its expansion into the former Falcon OZ.  If the Dominion wants certain former Falcon worlds bad enough, they simply have the numbers to eventually roll over any Pact resistance.

[Cannonshop]

These are Clan factions.  Logic, reason and mutual benefit do not factor into the thinking, especially with the Ghost Bears drinking so deep into the "Let's be completely irrational' brew (vis a vis their last feature sourcebook).

so, no.  I don't think so.  The Bears are too irrational and unreliable to be allies of anybody who isn't named Alaric...or even to observe more than a temporary cease-fire, much less a non-aggression treaty.

[Orwell84]

For the Dominion, it’s a matter of timing.  If Tomans happens after the Dominion has started its Combine offensive or is in the middle of its Civil War, then yeah, the Dominion would appreciate the stable border so more of its focus can be pointed internally or at the Combine.  If Tomans happens well before the Dominion knows it will be going on the offensive against the Combine or is embroiled in rebellion, then it’s hard to see the Dominion seeing the Pact as more than a speed bump in its expansion into the former Falcon OZ.  If the Dominion wants certain former Falcon worlds bad enough, they simply have the numbers to eventually roll over any Pact resistance.

Star Colonel Lena's report suggesting that the Pact could serve as a buffer state is dated June 3152 (Dominions Divided, p.88), so the civil war's over (for now) and the incursion towards Luthien has begun. The Dominion - or ambitious elements of its govt / military - might still decide to go for Tamar, but with another war on its opposite border and a much more powerful neighbor to the 'northwest' the odds are unlikely. In fact, this brewing Combine-Dominion War might be one of the factors that gives the Hinterlands states extended life.

[Starfury]

The Dominion has bigger snakes to cook then dealing with the Hinterlands. I suspect they'll send in recon raids to found out what the lay of the land is while they get ready for the Third Combine Dominion War: Return of the Ghost Bears Having Their Picnic.

[GRUD]

It's the Ghost Bears. They don't like being friends with anyone.

But . . . aren't they "Friends" with the (Former) Free Rasalhague Republic? 

 

Would they? Maybe.
Could they? Maybe.
Should they? Maybe.

Depends on how "Important" Tomans is to the GBD.  If they don't "Have" to have it to get their other, More Important goals (Arcturus and Pandora), then why burn the resources (Troops, 'Mechs and material) to conquer Tomans?

They're going to have their hands full enough fighting the Vault Hunters on Pandora as it is!    

[Starfury]

Possibly. The Dominion is smart enough to focus on the Combine for CGBW 3 and try to gather intelligence via raids instead.

[glitterboy2098]

i could see a nonaggression pact.. perhaps with an addendum using clan trials to sort out conflicting claims to worlds. so you'd still get fights (good for the game!), but they'd be smaller scale, allowing the bears to focus more on their less reasonable neighbors.

[Cannonshop]

Possibly. The Dominion is smart enough to focus on the Combine for CGBW 3 and try to gather intelligence via raids instead.

The problem is whether they (*the Ghost Bears) will honor any of their agreements.  as in, any of them, at all.
The shift in their nature makes their word...doubtful-moreso than the Clans already were after what we saw with Dominions Divided, so there's an issue there-the very behavior of the faction is inconsistent enough compared to their past nature and reputation to make it doubtful that they even can honor any agreements they make, but beyond that, it makes things doubtful that they can make any binding agreement of any sort.

Sorry, but I just don't see it happening.

For an agreement to be made, your word has to be good-that is, your promises must weigh at least as much as your threats.  That's not true of the current generation of Ghost Bears.