What If: Periphery Victory in the Reunification War?

[Phantom000]

Given that the Reunification War was the first great test of the young Star League; it seems logical that if they were defeated in the war it would likely lead to the end of the league entirely. Even a stalemate would effectively be a defeat for the Star League as the Periphery were fighting to maintain their independence. Unless the SL could crush the periphery or force them to some kind of capitulation, The Reunification War would be seen as a failure.

Of course, the big question is how could the League be defeated when all four of the periphery states together could barely match one of the great houses, much less all six working together? What about dissension among the great houses?

Supposedly the Periphery States survived because the great houses were too concerned with each other to bother with them. And consider that during the war there were a few isolated incidents of house millitaries clashing with each other. So what if the Periphery States found a way to aggravate the divisions among the great houses so that such clashes were common almost from the beginning? Could the divisions have gotten bad enough that the invasion collapses, or at least grinds too a halt with no way to renew the advance?

As I said, a stalemate would mean a periphery victory and if the Star League could not defeat four puny frontier states what was it good for? Could Ian Cameron, and especially his son Nicholas, hold together the Star League if most of the Inner Sphere saw it as a mistake?

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

I'm curious as to just how the Periphery could have actually pulled off a win.

[Minemech]

I'm curious as to just how the Periphery could have actually pulled off a win.

Their best path would have been to find a way to build political capital behind the Free Worlds League's opposition so that they might avoid a war.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Yeah, that might work but it isn't exactly the scenario.

[RifleMech]

I think the key to dividing the Inner Sphere is with House Davion. They weren't happy about joining and weren't happy about how the SL courts handled issues with the Capellan Confederation. They also didn't want Kurita expanding their boarder while they fought the Taurians. That's one reason why they negotiated to send the Pitcairn Legion to theOutworlds Alliance for a  dozen worlds.

If the SLDF and DC invaded those worlds anyway, that would have put the SLDF at war against the FS, especially if they used weapons of mass destruction. At the least that would have hampered the SLDF's operations against the TC it not broken the Star League.

The FedSuns working with the OA could have insisted on  war crimes trials against the DC and the TH for their actions in the OA. If they didn't get them, they could have used that as an excuse to pull out of the Star League. If they did get them, the trials and loss of leadership and personnel would have slowed operations against the Periphery. Either way, the FS could use the war crimes as propaganda against the Star League.

The Free Worlds League also didn't really want war and stuck to the Ares Convention. That the SLDF and DCMS were so willing to abandon them not only against the Periphery but another state of the Star League could have been enough to halt their operations against the Magistracy of Canopus and push the Star League to cease the war or pull out of the Star League. After all if the Star League treats their friends the way they do their enemies why be friends?

And then there's the Capellan Confederation. They were friendly with the Taurians and not involved in the war. If the SLDF starts sending large fleets through their territory it could spark fear of invasion. It could push them further towards a formal alliance with the Taurians against the Terran Hegemony.

I don't know if that all would have stopped the Reunification War. Most likely it would have expanded it and made it last longer. There could possibly have been a series of Reunification Wars. With the TH, LC, and DC against everyone else and the CC and TC against the FS and OA.

[Phantom000]

Their best path would have been to find a way to build political capital behind the Free Worlds League's opposition so that they might avoid a war.

IIRC Ian Cameron tried to use economic pressure to bring the periphery states into the Star League with a series of trade embargoes which backfired as it hurt the member states more than the periphery.

What if Canopus made a secret deal with the FWL, and maybe the LC, to continue trading just like before. Marik and Steiner would have an incentive to avoid a war as it would damage their economy. Also how would Ian Cameron and the SL government react if they discovered two of its members were actually ignoring their authority? How would that impact the SL war plans if Cameron decided he could not trust Steiner or Marik to subdue the Magistracy?

[Phantom000]

I think the key to dividing the Inner Sphere is with House Davion. They weren't happy about joining and weren't happy about how the SL courts handled issues with the Capellan Confederation. They also didn't want Kurita expanding their boarder while they fought the Taurians. That's one reason why they negotiated to send the Pitcairn Legion to theOutworlds Alliance for a  dozen worlds.

If the SLDF and DC invaded those worlds anyway, that would have put the SLDF at war against the FS, especially if they used weapons of mass destruction. At the least that would have hampered the SLDF's operations against the TC it not broken the Star League.

The FedSuns working with the OA could have insisted on  war crimes trials against the DC and the TH for their actions in the OA. If they didn't get them, they could have used that as an excuse to pull out of the Star League. If they did get them, the trials and loss of leadership and personnel would have slowed operations against the Periphery. Either way, the FS could use the war crimes as propaganda against the Star League.

The Free Worlds League also didn't really want war and stuck to the Ares Convention. That the SLDF and DCMS were so willing to abandon them not only against the Periphery but another state of the Star League could have been enough to halt their operations against the Magistracy of Canopus and push the Star League to cease the war or pull out of the Star League. After all if the Star League treats their friends the way they do their enemies why be friends?

And then there's the Capellan Confederation. They were friendly with the Taurians and not involved in the war. If the SLDF starts sending large fleets through their territory it could spark fear of invasion. It could push them further towards a formal alliance with the Taurians against the Terran Hegemony.

I don't know if that all would have stopped the Reunification War. Most likely it would have expanded it and made it last longer. There could possibly have been a series of Reunification Wars. With the TH, LC, and DC against everyone else and the CC and TC against the FS and OA.

An actual shooting war between the FS and TH, unless it was super brief, would likely tear the SL apart. FS was the largest military in the IS next to the TH at the time, wasn't it? How long could the SL survive if its two most important members were actively fighting each other?

As for the situation in the OA between Davion and Kurita, what if Centrella managed to arrange a similar situation between Steiner and Marik? The MC had a number of worlds that were formerly of the FWL that Marik hoped to retake during the war, but if Centrella handed those worlds over to Steiner, as in those worlds became fully part of the LC. If Marik forces arrived only to discover the worlds were already under LC occupation which leads to open hostilities forcing the SLDF to step in and force both sides out of the systems to keep open war breaking out. This prompts Marik to demand the worlds be handed over the FWL and they will not support the war effort in any way until that happens, with Steiner making similar demands about the same time. So Cameron would have the choice of either halting the invasion of MC until he can sort out this dispute between the two houses, or have the SLDF fight the magistracy alone while also trying to police Marik and Steiner. 

[Alan Grant]

Remember, the Great Houses were deploying forces and fighting too. It wasn't purely the Star League. In fact a majority of the fighting forces were House units. So the Star League has to save face, the Great Houses also have to save face. They weren't just subservient; they were partners in that venture. To varying degrees, they supported it and wanted it to happen. They were vocal and public in that support. So a defeat doesn't just shame the League it shames them too.

I think some version of a periphery victory doesn't bring down the Star League. I think the Great Houses and the Star League, together are largely forced to save face and justify what happened, and preserve the support of their respective populations in the face of horrendous military losses (particularly losses among the Great House troops deployed).

Some might distance themselves from the Star League to do that (that doesn't mean leave the Star League, just get critical of how the war was waged while being a SL member), but I think most actually just latch onto the idea that the periphery powers are SOO strong, that the Inner Sphere needs to recognize them as a legitimate threat and so it's important that we band together in the face of this existential threat.

Remember, one of the key events prior to the Reunification War was some fighting between the Federated Suns and the Taurians... that the Taurians won. The Federated Suns reaction to that was to decide the Taurians were a great threat and needed to be fought. Think of it like a repeat of that on a bigger scale and involving the SL and all the Great Houses.

So most likely the Star League stays intact, with a lot of finger pointing and blame thrown around in every royal court. But the Star League and the Great Houses are able to channel a lot of that blame on the enemy. The Star League pulls back, it writes the story to tell the tale of the Star League standing up to the strong periphery powers who killed so many of the brave Star League's soldiers. It builds, it militarizes even more, and eventually there's the Second Reunification War. Or some long-standing status quo where the periphery nations remain separate from the Star League, locked in a perpetual cold war for generations.

It's also important to remember that the Great Houses were kept in check from fighting each other a lot by the Star League. Any one Great House pulls out of the League, the gloves are off. If the Capellans back out of League membership for example, then Camerons get to look at the Davions and the Mariks and give them the nod to attack, with plenty of SLDF support. Batter the Capellans down a few pegs until they are brought back onto the League. Star League membership represents a kind of check-and-balance. The first Great House to bail on that, loses that protection and just begins to look like a tempting target to the rest.

[Metallgewitter]

The biggest problem in this question is that unlike the Star League the 3 Periphery powers (I diswcount the rimworlds because they were more at war with themselves) were not connected by borders making any coordination nonexistent. Their main strategy was to wear the Houses down aka make the war too costly to pursue further. Which would never work as the entire Is was blanketed with Star League propaganda painting the Periphery as dumb barbarians that needed to be dragged to the future despite the fact that the Concordat had actually the best educational system and a very strong technological base. The only thing that could even work a bit in their favor would be discord between the Houses but as the majority wanted war (as a way tu truly united the Star League especially the SLDF) such opportunities were rare. House Davion might have been the best option though don't forget alexander was also a key proponent in launching the Reunification war though more pragmatic then the hawkish Hehiro Kurita

[RifleMech]

An actual shooting war between the FS and TH, unless it was super brief, would likely tear the SL apart. FS was the largest military in the IS next to the TH at the time, wasn't it? How long could the SL survive if its two most important members were actively fighting each other?

As for the situation in the OA between Davion and Kurita, what if Centrella managed to arrange a similar situation between Steiner and Marik? The MC had a number of worlds that were formerly of the FWL that Marik hoped to retake during the war, but if Centrella handed those worlds over to Steiner, as in those worlds became fully part of the LC. If Marik forces arrived only to discover the worlds were already under LC occupation which leads to open hostilities forcing the SLDF to step in and force both sides out of the systems to keep open war breaking out. This prompts Marik to demand the worlds be handed over the FWL and they will not support the war effort in any way until that happens, with Steiner making similar demands about the same time. So Cameron would have the choice of either halting the invasion of MC until he can sort out this dispute between the two houses, or have the SLDF fight the magistracy alone while also trying to police Marik and Steiner. 

Probably not very long.

I can't see that happening. Steiner wanted the war to distract from internal problems. If the Magistracy did that, they'd be rewarding Steiner for helping to launch the war against them.

Remember, the Great Houses were deploying forces and fighting too. It wasn't purely the Star League. In fact a majority of the fighting forces were House units. So the Star League has to save face, the Great Houses also have to save face. They weren't just subservient; they were partners in that venture. To varying degrees, they supported it and wanted it to happen. They were vocal and public in that support. So a defeat doesn't just shame the League it shames them too.
(snip)

Yes, the FS wanted to fight the TC but they didn't want to join the SL in the first place. Should the SL/TH start invading FS worlds with the DC it would be more than enough for them to pullout as they couldn't trust the TH or their SL. It would also be a signal to the other houses that the SL would take sides. That would encourage the FWL who also didn't want to join and the CC was friendly with the TC to pull out or force changes to operations such as prosecuting war crimes perpetrated against the Periphery. That alone would have a huge impact on SLDF operations. Add in that public opinion was turning against the war and desertions from the SLDF were increasing the best the SL could do would be to stop without causing more internal problems. I don't think that would have stopped their overall plans but it would have drawn them out so the Reunification War would go from a single war to a series of wars, like the Succession Wars.

[BrianDavion]

where's the idea the FS didn't want to join in the first place from? the House Davion Handbook makes it clear that what was delaying entry was mostly a desire to not enter from a place of weakness after their devestating Civil war

[Templar87]

where's the idea the FS didn't want to join in the first place from? the House Davion Handbook makes it clear that what was delaying entry was mostly a desire to not enter from a place of weakness after their devestating Civil war

The thing is, though, if we look at Alexander Davion's actions as described in Historical: Reunification War, they paint a picture of someone who - whatever he may have felt in theory - was decidedly reluctant to join this whole Star League venture, as it actually was, in the first place, and apparently had serious issues with it (see: his constant trolling of Forlough, and deliberately coming very close to provoking the Capellans into rage-quitting the whole thing).

[Metallgewitter]

I think you overestimate why Alexander actually interfered in Operation Union hold. For one Hehiro Kurita tried to poach worlds from the Suns by trying to station troops on border worlds to "support the war effort of the Federated suns in the Concordat". And Alexander was angry with Ian Cameron for even allowing the Confederation trying to take away the world of Chesterton which was never part of the Confederation. It was also a move to show that the AFFS (which was the Pitcairn Legion) still had teeth and could extract a hefty price from the SLDF if need be.

[BrianDavion]

All of which is consist with the core motivation of not wanting to apper weak after the civil war. Outright FIGHTING the Star League would NOT have achomplished this

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

Leonard Kurita being sober enough to actually hold a pen and sign the order declaring war against the Camerons for "hiding his kids" probably woulda done it