What would you argue to be the most illogical decision made by an IS Leader?

[AUGUSTUS]

In 3025, the CCAF was not the sick man of the Inner Sphere that barely survived through the 3030s.  They were still mostly considered a first-rate House capable of fighting one of its neighbors on a relatively even footing, just as they had through the 3rd Succession War.  They might have been smaller than the AFFS, but bringing the Capellans into an alliance with the Free Worlds meant that ideally Janos Marik could move more troops off the Capellan border and stack them on the Lyran border instead.  Likewise, the CCAF could shift more regiments to the FedSuns border -- in both cases, this puts more 'Mechs on the borders of the....

Agreed. Prior to other events, the 4th Succession War was the topic of much debate (at least...to as much a degree as the ancient bulletin boards of the early net could handle....) and much of it was actually very astute and with the same questions. I sometimes wish I had made copies and still miss those days.

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

C* had put a lot of stock in the idea that the FWL and Lyrans beef would override any other concerns. I don't think it's an assumption that holds a lot of water considering that's the only border where every war ended in a treaty and commerce had not stopped. But they desperately wanted it to be true.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Yeah, they're the two sides who basically said "yes, we're going to kill each other, but let's be civil about it."

[Middcore]

C* had put a lot of stock in the idea that the FWL and Lyrans beef would override any other concerns. I don't think it's an assumption that holds a lot of water considering that's the only border where every war ended in a treaty and commerce had not stopped. But they desperately wanted it to be true.

Janos simply seeking an accommodation with the nascent FedCom in some ways seems more plausible to me (or at least like a better option) than the Concord of Kapetyn. As you say, there's no real waving-the-bloody-shirt hatred between the FWL and Lyrans (at least not to the extent there is between, say, the Combine and FedSuns) whereas there were deep grudges both recent and ancient between the FWL and Confederation. The FWL is also much more politically/ideologically similar to the LC and FS than it is to the Combine and Confederation.

[Minemech]

C* had put a lot of stock in the idea that the FWL and Lyrans beef would override any other concerns. I don't think it's an assumption that holds a lot of water considering that's the only border where every war ended in a treaty and commerce had not stopped. But they desperately wanted it to be true.

The League/Lyran warzone came with the understanding that if either power took and held the right worlds, within a century they would be set to be the Inner Sphere superpower. This would be a difficult endeavor for either. 

[Minemech]

Agreed. Prior to other events, the 4th Succession War was the topic of much debate (at least...to as much a degree as the ancient bulletin boards of the early net could handle....) and much of it was actually very astute and with the same questions. I sometimes wish I had made copies and still miss those days.

The 3025 Capellan Confederation was adapted by Maximilian to recover and survive well within the norms of the Third, but it still was in horrible shape. The loss of depth meant that critical infrastructure was more vulnerable than for other Successor States, that losses were far more significant, and that victories were more easily made pyrrhic. Within the next two centuries, it was likely that the Confederation would fall to minor power status if it survived. 

[Cannonshop]

Janos simply seeking an accommodation with the nascent FedCom in some ways seems more plausible to me (or at least like a better option) than the Concord of Kapetyn. As you say, there's no real waving-the-bloody-shirt hatred between the FWL and Lyrans (at least not to the extent there is between, say, the Combine and FedSuns) whereas there were deep grudges both recent and ancient between the FWL and Confederation. The FWL is also much more politically/ideologically similar to the LC and FS than it is to the Combine and Confederation.

Have you ever noticed that the kids who throw down and throw hands hardest, are the ones whom are most alike?  Siblings will exact a toll on one another that neither will inflict on an outsider.  It's the things we see in ourselves, that we often hate most in others (Whether we admit to those things, or not.)

[Middcore]

Have you ever noticed that the kids who throw down and throw hands hardest

Except that canonically, the FWL and the LC didn't "throw hands hardest," as I said.

[Cannonshop]

Except that canonically, the FWL and the LC didn't "throw hands hardest," as I said.

yet the canon also has material suggesting those two hate one another 'most'.

I"m trying to remember the exact quote, but it's about don't trust a cappie, but shoot a Lyran on sight, or something to that effect.  (was it FM FWL?)

point being, lots of things are basically irrational just so that the setting can function as a wargame.  The basic nature of the FWL would make it a natural ally of both the Lyrans, and Feddies, yet they are not.  The divide, therefore, is likely completely irrational in nature and ingrained, a hatred that makes no sense because it literally makes no sense.

[Lone-Wolf]

yet the canon also has material suggesting those two hate one another 'most'.

I"m trying to remember the exact quote, but it's about don't trust a cappie, but shoot a Lyran on sight, or something to that effect.  (was it FM FWL?)

point being, lots of things are basically irrational just so that the setting can function as a wargame.  The basic nature of the FWL would make it a natural ally of both the Lyrans, and Feddies, yet they are not.  The divide, therefore, is likely completely irrational in nature and ingrained, a hatred that makes no sense because it literally makes no sense.

I remember that quote too.
I think the bad blood between the LC and the FWL has something to do with that both states consider themselves more merchant than warrior or so.
So, they try to out-do each other first with normal methods, then the Black and Blacker Ops and in the end you have a blood feud that would make a Sicilian proud - or a Viking.

[Minemech]

 The Free Worlds League historically viewed the Commonwealth as an untrustworthy aggressor nation. In fact, Free Worlds League school books pin the start of the First Succession War on the Lyrans due to their invasion of Bolan. This made it easier for Comstar to manipulate Charles Marik into war with the Commonwealth as he genuinely thought they were about to attack.
EDIT: I should note that every war up until the Second Succession War between the two was undeniably due to Lyran aggression. The First Succession War was started due to Lyran intel that ultimately does not add up with what they encountered.

[Minemech]

 I am going to go a bit out of character and lay out the Bolan War better. The Bolan War was a security dilemma. Both powers were well aware that a major war was coming, and both were aware of the significance of Bolan. Under the traditional depiction, if the League fleet won a major victory against the Lyrans, the Commonwealth would have become indefensible. The League also knew that the Lyrans were traditional aggressors who just might attack a nearly impossible to defend position. The question was how to make Bolan defensible without igniting a conflict. Security dilemmas often end up in wars even when it is well out of the interests of the related powers. The Bolan War was an example of what one realist coins and named his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

[VanVelding]

I'd think the most illogical action by an IS leader wouldn't be something so prone to debate.

Waterly earned that bullet to the face with Operation SCORPION. It was a military operation done without the Precentor Martial's knowledge. Because ComStar itself wasn't ideologically behind the decision. Its scope was far beyond what ComStar forces--already drawn down by Tukayyid--could do. Major powers were already wise to ComStar's untrustworthyness (it's implied the entire operation is an aphrodisiac for Hanse Davion). It hinged on the technologically advanced Clanners still being totally dependent on ComStar for communications. And perhaps worst of all, its operation name relates to the nature of the operation. Maybe your giant betrayal operation to piss off literally everyone shouldn't be named after a child's fable about self-destructive betrayal.

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

The Free Worlds League historically viewed the Commonwealth as an untrustworthy aggressor nation. In fact, Free Worlds League school books pin the start of the First Succession War on the Lyrans due to their invasion of Bolan. This made it easier for Comstar to manipulate Charles Marik into war with the Commonwealth as he genuinely thought they were about to attack.
EDIT: I should note that every war up until the Second Succession War between the two was undeniably due to Lyran aggression. The First Succession War was started due to Lyran intel that ultimately does not add up with what they encountered.

I'm not saying that there is no animosity on the border, just that the assumption that it would override all other concerns and single-handedly force the FWL and CC to be friends against the LC and FS doesn't really make sense. Especially given that Oriente and Andurien are both big players in 3025 and neither have had much in the way of positive experiences with the Capellans.

[Minemech]

I'm not saying that there is no animosity on the border, just that the assumption that it would override all other concerns and single-handedly force the FWL and CC to be friends against the LC and FS doesn't really make sense. Especially given that Oriente and Andurien are both big players in 3025 and neither have had much in the way of positive experiences with the Capellans.

I think that bringing the Confederation in is what sank the prospects of an effective alliance. That is not to say that the League had a high view of the Combine either but they could be bargained with. The relationship between the Commonwealth and League is genuinely tragic on many levels but their people do not hate one another which is something. For the Confederation, peoples outside of the state are not part of the greater humanity. For the Combine, xenophobia is the rational state. It is necessary for Battletech that the two not get along since they would theoretically form an unstoppable alliance.

[BrianDavion]

I'm not saying that there is no animosity on the border, just that the assumption that it would override all other concerns and single-handedly force the FWL and CC to be friends against the LC and FS doesn't really make sense. Especially given that Oriente and Andurien are both big players in 3025 and neither have had much in the way of positive experiences with the Capellans.

honestly the capellan/league love fest that's gone on uninterrupted for so long is truely baffling. I hope the ilclan era finally gives us a league/capellan war

[butchbird]

" Never trust a Capellan but shoot a Lyran on site".

The Korvin doctrine does not state that people outside of the sdtate are inhuman, merely that a strong, centralized governement is all that can effectively unite mankind and lead it to "greatness"...and then the Liao family instated that only they could lead that.

Recent civil war aside, I doubt in 3025 free worlders had so much more animosity for capellans, which they have historically bested at nearly every opportunity, then the Lyrans, with whom they have quite the rivalry and border disputes.

[BrianDavion]

the problem isn't breif alliances, I mean christ during the 3050s Kurita and Davion where allies after all, the problem is from 3025 to 3145 the league and the cappies are buds, it's a bit hard to belive there's never been flair ups on the border.

I for one hope the truth of Jessica Marik's death comes to light, and Nikol has no CHOICE but to invade the capcon

[Minemech]

the problem isn't breif alliances, I mean christ during the 3050s Kurita and Davion where allies after all, the problem is from 3025 to 3145 the league and the cappies are buds, it's a bit hard to belive there's never been flair ups on the border.

I for one hope the truth of Jessica Marik's death comes to light, and Nikol has no CHOICE but to invade the capcon

There was a hot war in that time period involving the League states and the Confederation. The Victoria War.

[Middcore]

Recent civil war aside, I doubt in 3025 free worlders had so much more animosity for capellans, which they have historically bested at nearly every opportunity, then the Lyrans, with whom they have quite the rivalry and border disputes.

Ah yes, the small matter of that bitter civil war the CapCon was publicly known to have directly engineered.

Not to mention the OTHER civil war which happened because some quarters of the League had enough animosity for the Capellans they thought it was better to finish what Hanse Davion started than have the Confederation as an ally.

[BrianDavion]

There was a hot war in that time period involving the League states and the Confederation. The Victoria War.

eh maybe but doesn't quite count. I do think that the killer of Jessica Marik should get out. it'd make things kinda uncomfortable for Nikol for a number of reasons, and that discomfort is room for intreasting stories.

[Minemech]

eh maybe but doesn't quite count. I do think that the killer of Jessica Marik should get out. it'd make things kind of uncomfortable for Nikol for a number of reasons, and that discomfort is room for interesting stories.

We need another big five. We need true Successor Lords who set the standard for what follows. The current pieces are Nikol Marik, Julian Davion, Yori Kurita, Danai Liao and Trillian Steiner. Time will tell if they can be molded into such figures. Perhaps their role will be to mold the next big five. The larger question that may ultimately haunt the writers is where are their heirs?

[butchbird]

Ah yes, the small matter of that bitter civil war the CapCon was publicly known to have directly engineered.

Not to mention the OTHER civil war which happened because some quarters of the League had enough animosity for the Capellans they thought it was better to finish what Hanse Davion started than have the Confederation as an ally.

Well, the andurien secession wouldn't be viewed as a civil war by the anduriens. They attacked the Capcon far more out of oppurtunitism then hatred. And while they are, besides perhaps zion province (or whatever the exact name of that province is), those with the least love for the confederation, fact is they are, from what we know, a rather isolated bloc in the federal parliament and not particularly close to the captain-general's inner circle. The other powerfull province on the capellan border being Oriente, which (I might've missed something) never gave the impression of hating the cappies to the point of it rendering them blind (after all, they were one of the big winners in the victorys against the CC), yes, I'd dare say that its quite probable, on a league wide basis, that capellans are no more disliked then lyrans dispite the "similaritys" between the free worlds and the commonwealth.

But I must point out that while the federal governement of the league gives an air of freedom for the people, most of the provincial governements are military dictatorships...somewhat more similar to the cappie way of running things.

Going back to their (tricked) alliance prior to the 4th SW, while it's fair to assume (and it would have been quite illogical) that never Janos would have agreed to an alliance with the capcon had he known, what would have been gained from backing off after having travelled all the way to the conference with Takashi whom had offered a very inticing deal through quite the able diplomat? I mean, Subash Indrahar for the dragon's sake! The deal was done and signing the document besides Maximillian didn't mean he couldn't be simply used as a buffer that can always de weakened through other means then overt war. Bet Janos would rather have a weak Capcon then the Fedsuns on his border.

One way or another the fedcom would be coming for the FWL some day or another. Why would they have been interested in brockering an alliance with the FWL when victory in the succession wars was seamingly at hand?

[JAMES_PRYDE]

Alexander K "leaving" (or giving up and wanting to go die as another post mentioned from his secret personal diaries)

Should have just taken over a far out there pirate kingdom, re-armed and organized with in 50 years, SLDF in full swing comeback

[Minemech]

But I must point out that while the federal governement of the league gives an air of freedom for the people, most of the provincial governements are military dictatorships...somewhat more similar to the cappie way of running things.

This needs quite a bit of qualification. Most transitionary governments from conquests to League rule are military dictatorships, with such governance dropped after a period of time. They rarely stay as such without federal intervention, but those are specifically occupied by the FWLM. They were sharply declining as of 3067 because so few had recently been taken and fewer still had lasted decades. The Clan Protectorate was in part formed because they knew that the Clan form of governance would be anathema to the League. There are some that occur because of coups.

[The Eagle]

In the Kapteyn discussion, another thing to remember is that Janos had suffered through a civil war, launched by his closest brother and roping in one of his sons, that was initiated almost directly by Maximillian Liao.  Precentor ROM was there to push the pieces around the board, but it was Mad Max who put the bug in Anton's ear that Janos was doing it all wrong and it was Max who put the entirety of Wolf's Dragoons into Anton's order of battle.  Janos might have been bothered to do more than the four planetary strikes of Operation DAGGER if Max wasn't poisoning the pot of the alliance.  The fact that the Combine needed help didn't matter when Janos personal mortal enemy was also asking for help.  It made more sense to do the bare minimum all around and let his enemies destroy each other.

As for the League/Lyran relationship, aside from the quote about shooting Steiners that we've all been bandying about, there's another good example of the simmering boil of this relationship: Janos' reply to Katrina Steiner's peace offer.  It's been a while, but I'm pretty sure it amounted to "You marry one of my sons, the Commonwealth becomes a vassal state of the FWL."  He wasn't proposing a merger like Hanse did, he straight up demanded the dissolution of the Lyran state and its incorporation into the League.  That's pretty dang harsh.

Additional note: I've long had an idea to write an in-character military treatise on the history and operations of the FWLM though I never really did get any steam under it.  But in my initial round of research, one of the biggest factors that jumped out at me was that in every era, every Succession War, the League gained worlds at the expense of the Capellans but had a net loss of worlds at the hands of the Lyrans.  Declining to attack a foe you know you can beat is one thing, but allying with other powers against the one neighbor that constantly gives you a beating is actually smart.  You know, if you actually follow through on the terms of the alliance.

[butchbird]

This needs quite a bit of qualification. Most transitionary governments from conquests to League rule are military dictatorships, with such governance dropped after a period of time. They rarely stay as such without federal intervention, but those are specifically occupied by the FWLM. They were sharply declining as of 3067 because so few had recently been taken and fewer still had lasted decades. The Clan Protectorate was in part formed because they knew that the Clan form of governance would be anathema to the League. There are some that occur because of coups.

Went to check, Faulty memory indeed. Oligarchies are the most widespread form of governance.

But from what I've (rapidly) checked on, I get the impression that while its uncommon, military dictatorship it is still well represented in provicial politics. As of 3067, the protectorate, which is a bigger player then the majority of other provinces (granted, those are mostly lone star systems), is still a military dictatorship. And as the FWL has gobbled a large swath of the CC and there's been much shifting of borders on the LC border, military dictatorships must have quite the historic in the FWL.

[Metallgewitter]

After reading through the 1st Sucession War book I find John Davions decision to attack a house he had no animosity with quite illogical. What was actually the point of Operation "Brass Ring"? Heck at this point House Steiner had made better military decdision then nthe supposed military competent House Davion (yes I know 1st SC Fed Suns were as competent as Dark Age Fed Suns)

[Minemech]

As for the League/Lyran relationship, aside from the quote about shooting Steiners that we've all been bandying about, there's another good example of the simmering boil of this relationship: Janos' reply to Katrina Steiner's peace offer.  It's been a while, but I'm pretty sure it amounted to "You marry one of my sons, the Commonwealth becomes a vassal state of the FWL."  He wasn't proposing a merger like Hanse did, he straight up demanded the dissolution of the Lyran state and its incorporation into the League.  That's pretty dang harsh.

It was actually the same thing Hanse had in mind, in this case an heir with a Marik last name on the throne instead of a Davion one. This is why there are arguments in other threads that the peace proposal was a faux act.

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

After reading through the 1st Sucession War book I find John Davions decision to attack a house he had no animosity with quite illogical. What was actually the point of Operation "Brass Ring"? Heck at this point House Steiner had made better military decdision then nthe supposed military competent House Davion (yes I know 1st SC Fed Suns were as competent as Dark Age Fed Suns)

I wouldn't say that they had no animosity. John actually MEANT IT when he declared himself First Lord. Since everyone else also declared themselves First Lord, he has beef with everyone.