Its the 'Mortal Wound' scenario . . .
That can happen, sure, but there's no particular reason that it must happen that way here. The Aurigan Reach isn't canon, so there's no obligation for its future to be, well, anything one way or the other.
I can't think of any canonical reason, or any reason logically proceeding from the plot of the game, why "Kamea rules wisely and well and the Reach prospers" is any less viable a future than "Kamea screws everything up and the Reach falls apart". I'd actually argue that the former seems more appropriate for the spirit of what the game is trying to do.
BattleTech is a pretty straightforward heroic story, the princess and the mercenary and the rightful restoration, and... well, the genre-appropriate way for that story to end is "and they all lived happily ever after".
As far as I can tell there is no canonical or logical reason why "and they all lived happily ever after"
couldn't be the future, and since that seems to be the ending that the game encourages - the game clearly presents Kamea as a good person and the Restoration as noble - I think it's more harmonious with what the game is trying to do to imagine a happy ending. A downer ending, it seems to me, goes against what the plot is generally trying to set up. I'd rather an unoriginal but well-executed happy ending than a 'clever' downer ending that goes against the grain.
That said, you do customise your character and mercenary company in the game, so I have no particular problem with people imagining whatever post-game epilogue feels appropriate for their character, the campaign they played, or whatever. If the Reach falling into anarchy would be more appropriate for the character or the type of story you produced (say, that of a money-grubbing mercenary out to grab what they can amid the fall of nations), then by all means imagine that.
Especially not for something as inane as 'gave bad intel accidentally'. You're likely getting most of your intel from your employer, because Merc.
Heh. I remember the first mission I played in
BattleTech that seriously gave me a lot of trouble was a Capellan contract to destroy a deserter with a powerful mech. I didn't play particularly well and took some casualties, and eventually pushed through the Canopians... only to discover that the deserter was in an Orion and they smashed another one of my mechs before finally going down. I felt pretty miffed that the Capellans hadn't given me proper intelligence (come on, it was a deserter from their own forces: they could have said "oh, by the way, here are the specs on the deserter's mech"). The default Liao mission success quote is:
"House Liao has always believed in one thing, Commander: victory at any cost. It seems you also understand this vital lesson. We are pleased you've performed so well."Considering that half my lance got wiped out fighting a similar-weight Canopian lance and then I got mauled by a heavy, I felt I'd indeed made some heavy sacrifices for victory... but also that this was only necessitated because the Capellans had withheld important intelligence, leading me to take a dangerous contract that otherwise I would have avoided. I read the final quote imagining the Liao liaison with this insincere smile. Good job, you poor mercenary scum - you did exactly what we manipulated you into!
As it happens that's just a default quote and the target mech is randomised anyway, that situation was entirely emergent. I was also very much reading it in terms of the 3025 characterisation of House Liao, which is of these slimy, deceptive manipulators. The net result is that a situation where, in my imagined story of the mission, I got bad intel, the mission went pear-shaped, I won regardless but with heavy casualties, and my employer, in a completely character-appropriate way, smirked and gave me an insincere pat on the head. It was great. It really drove home for me the feeling of what it must be like to be a mercenary in this universe, especially dealing with employers who have their own agenda, which may differ from yours.
So I enjoyed that little story, noted it down in my memory, made a mental note to not trust Capellans, and went onwards. That was exactly what I want out of a BattleTech game! :)