I'd have to more-or-less agree with the assessment. The future of the Aurigan Reach doesn't look promising, even if Kamea doesn't mismanage it to the point of collapse. Without the lucky/skillful mercenary unit to prop it up, its own defense force can't protect the planets under its tenuous control, and the cost of paying the mercenaries ties up nearly the entire defense budget, leaving practically nothing for expanding its own meager forces. Once the mercenaries move on, it can't put down any attempts at independence by member planets, and is itself at risk of invasion for the next few years or decades while it rebuilds.
I can't see it holding most of its existing worlds in the face of both internal and external pressure, much less growing, and the most likely scenario would seem to be having it shrink to 1-3 planets: Coromodir and one or two weak dependent worlds that had no expectations of surviving solo, and not worth the bother of absorbing for the Taurians or other powers in the region. I could certainly see it surviving for several more decades as a tiny remnant, at least until the next major war between the larger Periphery states in the region destabilizes things, or a new minor power rises in the area and absorbs it (possibly with Coromodir itself still led by Kamea's family as a feudal vassal state to the larger regional power). I see this as the "gray option": the Arano family maintains control of the planet, but little or no more, and it becomes a part of someone else's larger empire.
The not-a-dropship, not-a-jumpship, non-canon vessel would have to be retconned into something less rule-breaking, but could retain MOST of its characteristics as a mobile platform with a docking collar (it could EITHER dock with a jumpship, OR have a dropship dock with it, but not both simultaneously, so any attached dropship would need to undock and use another collar on the jumpship). Its exotic repair and construction facilities would still make it a very valuable "toy", once the Helm Core provided the information on how to make more of it functional again.