For the clan's iron wombs to overcome the billions on Terra they probably have to run overtime.
Not really. They just have to support a substantially higher birth rate per Clanner than the birth rate per Terran. Over time, a higher birth rate allows a smaller population to hold out against, and eventually outnumber, a larger one.
Aside from the Goons using Iron Wombs to boost their numbers, the ability to dial in their demographics is a Clan advantage over the Houses that’s never really been explored in the canon. It could (maybe should) be in the ilClan Era.
Not sure why. Pretty sure Alaric’s loss of the Empire (per RR showing Othar is pretty solidly done with Alaric) means he actually now has a smaller population base to raise an army from. Terra is densely populated, but it’s now 12 billion against the what? A half a trillion people in the sphere?
No, it’s whatever touman or SLDF the ilClan is able to raise in the Terran system (or elsewhere) against the House militaries. Everyone else is usually sheeple in BT, and their allegiances and motivations only count if they join one of these tiny armies or if the authors need a guerrilla or partisan campaign.
And why would Alaric get a break over five years?
The OP was asking for a five-year projection. I don’t think it’s a bad assumption that some combination of the Wall, Raven fleet, and internal Liao family politics will keep the Capellans out of the Terran system for at least a half-decade. And I don’t think it’s a bad assumption that the Horses won’t make a drive on Terra and will be involved with the Hinterlands for another half-decade instead. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be skirmishes outside the Terran system. But I would guess that the ilClan has Terra’s population and industry to itself for some years to come. We’ll see if the authors do so and what they let the ilClan do with Terra’s resources.
Remember. RotS had a decade behind the wall to buildup. We’ve seen the limits of Terra. That’s been an immutable fact in the setting since 2018.
The RotS figures in FM: 3145 never made any sense to me, either. Rightly or wrongly, I agree that the RotS was set up for a fall. HotW was a dumpster fire. So was DD.
Regardless, it’s now the ilClan Era. The ilClan is not being set up for a fall. The ilClan will have wins and likely expand. My point is that the population and industry of Terra can logically support such a direction if the authors want to pay attention those details instead of ignoring them like they did with the RotS.
Amusing detail, but per FM3145, the RotS training systems are more effective than clan training.
There’s no evidence for this. I agree that the RotS should have had a larger military in FM: 3145. Assuming that the authors weren’t ignoring demographics and industry and weren’t setting the RotS up for a fall, the fact that the RotS didn’t have a larger military indicates that either the RotS recruitment and training system on Terra was really inefficient and/or that they failed to leverage Terra’s latent military industry.
The average RAF regiment was better trained than the average clanner
Green/Regular/Veteran/Elite unit ratings reflect more than just training. Even if they did only reflect training, the Clan system produces Gunnery and Piloting skills that are better on average than Spheroid skills.
Wolves get a fourth of that population with Terra. Let’s pretend they can build up. That means about 1100 mechjocks. About 25 clusters, or 5 galaxies.
The Wolves/ilClan are not necessarily constrained by the ineffective recruitment system that was implied for the RotS. We’ll see what the authors do, but when we’re talking about such tiny percentages of such a large population, there’s effectively no difference between 5 galaxies and 100 galaxies in terms of the numbers that could be recruited.
Honest question: why should the ilclan be able to challenge the houses in bare years? Why give them that plot armor?
Because they’ll have to. It’s the ilClan Era. It’s not the Era of Houses Beating Up on the Clans. By definition, the Clans will be challenging the Houses in this era and maybe even bringing the Houses to heel. That’s not plot armor. That’s just the rough story arc of the current timeline.
The remains of the Lyran Commonwealth have given us a preview of what the Clans can do to a House. Alaric wants constant war between the Clans and Houses. And there are commitments to reestablishing the Cats and Jags. Regardless of how the exact details develop, it’s pretty clear that the Houses will be on the back foot during the ilClan Era.
To do that, the ilClan will likely need a sizable army. Again, Terra has a large population and a sizable latent military industry that could support such a military if the authors wanted it to. That’s all.
You suggested a massive, contrived increase of wolf efficiency to let them keep winning.
I did no such thing. I get that you’re a RotS fan and unhappy with HotW and other recent developments. I don’t blame you and actually agree that the demise of the RotS was contrived. But that has nothing to do with my points about how the latent resources of Terra could support the transformation of the Wolves into the ilClan if that’s the direction the authors want to go. I’m not the millstone against which your RotS axe should be ground. Please don’t involve me in that any further here.
All the best. Take care.