I don't think another official tool is going to happen as long as the free, open source ones are still a thing. They do the job very well. When MML can finally do the rest of the large craft, I can't see myself using HMA anymore.
I think you are correct in your assumption, but not the condition. CGL is not going to commission another official tool, period. It wouldn't matter if SSK and MML were shutdown voluntarily, I simply don't think the Devs feel that it is of value, which is a pity.
The HM series was developed in the time of intense competition, you virtually couldn't turn around without stumbling over a free mech or veh designer. Everything from simple spreadsheets with special print functions to complex UIs that were roughly equivalent to the HM series. This could happen again, by the Devs actually committing to the idea, and devoting resources to it, which they are clearly unwilling to do. If you are serious about crafting a digital tool, you don't ask the community that plays the game, you ask a software developer! The Devs are willing to accept maybe someones tool that's been fan generated but clearly not interested in making this an actual business decision and commitment.
The biggest issue facing the development of a digital tool is demand, BT is the tightwads game, to put it bluntly. You can play the game with bottletops, lego men, whatever, you just need the rules and map sheets. So, where does the issue lie here? Simple, it lies with an inability to read the market and an unwillingness to accept risk, namely that those notorious tightwads will once again pucker up even after all those resources were invested. Development of good, robust, usable and most importantly, unique digital tool set would likely bring a new player base into the game, an automated play system, where you still moved Battlemechs around the map sheets, under the view of a tablet camera, selected your attacks on the tablet and had all of those attacks resolved automatically would make the game far faster paced,
without sacrificing granularity. Having two tablets on either side of the table, blutooth linked, would allow them to share data and automatically send information back and forth, meaning the only issue the player needed to think about is tactical moves and selecting attacks in a handy screen on the tablet.
That would be an interesting time to be a fan!
If you think my diatribe is unfair, I will point you to the currently displayed Battlecorps site under the heading of fiction, a site that has been closed for some time. The lack of timeliness regarding the updates in the HM series, all the while it was advertised on this very website as the official tool for Battletech design! These are not petty points, they point directly to the idea that the Devs are unwilling or disinterested in moving into the digital space.