Damage Dealing Paradigm - A Discussion

[Imperium]

So I know the current paradigm is punching holes in armor and exploiting crits, but this really only works with smaller designs, since when armor points get to about 16+points, you need 2 Gauss level hits to punch that armor, and with 20+ that heavies have, it means a Gauss + at least, which is unlikely for several rounds, and that is only the arms. I would say, it is better to just bypass this and spam crits and especially Head Hits. In fact, I find with a hit-location spammer, head hits are the MAJORITY of kills, which is great for salvage. Now, this offensive strategy, which is show-cased by my "Brutalizer" in the "Mech Design" forum, can of course be negated easily by use of Ferro-Lamellor, and then AMS (in case one switches from LBX to SRMs and then uses AMS to negate SRM Cheese-Spammers) but all that does is force the old paradigm of punch holes and sand-paper, but if their mechs are forced to use Ferro and AMS and your own Mechs are more offensive-based on average, your Mechs should probably win just by being more efficient when in numbers, since offensive-based designs tend to beat-defense oriented when in numbers. So of course, this strategy can be countered, but the counter can be countered - meaning one technically has the strategic initiative so long as one responds properly or pre-emptively.

What is your damage/elimination/ 'EXTERMINATION (Dalek speak) paradigm? Please explain the underlying reasoning and/or experiences. Please consider possible counters.

[AlphaMirage]

This paradigm is why I love LBX autocannons as I can do both with one weapon at decent range. 

If there is a mint assault mech I will typically start with a cluster round (the -1 at long range also helps) just fishing for pilot hits and some sweet sweet TACing.  Once it gets to medium I switch to regular shot and hole punch unless I have bad to hit numbers.  This has worked several times on big scary Gauss mechs (my Meta likes the Devastator and Thunder Hawk).

We don't play in an era where Ferro-Lam is a thing but that would frustrate me to no end and make me want to use Arrow IVs, Gauss, and Heavy Lasers to cut through the cheese.  Another avenue is to just ramp the heat up with infernos and plasma.  This strategy is not a very efficient one in the era of DHS (and the SRMs could be fishing for crits) but it does help.  I have cooked ammo off in assault mechs several times KOed the pilot and then finished that bruiser off with a helpless head shot.

[Retry]

So I know the current paradigm is punching holes in armor and exploiting crits, but this really only works with smaller designs, since when armor points get to about 16+points, you need 2 Gauss level hits to punch that armor, and with 20+ that heavies have, it means a Gauss + at least, which is unlikely for several rounds, and that is only the arms. I would say, it is better to just bypass this and spam crits and especially Head Hits. In fact, I find with a hit-location spammer, head hits are the MAJORITY of kills, which is great for salvage. Now, this offensive strategy, which is show-cased by my "Brutalizer" in the "Mech Design" forum, can of course be negated easily by use of Ferro-Lamellor, and then AMS (in case one switches from LBX to SRMs and then uses AMS to negate SRM Cheese-Spammers) but all that does is force the old paradigm of punch holes and sand-paper, but if their mechs are forced to use Ferro and AMS and your own Mechs are more offensive-based on average, your Mechs should probably win just by being more efficient when in numbers, since offensive-based designs tend to beat-defense oriented when in numbers. So of course, this strategy can be countered, but the counter can be countered - meaning one technically has the strategic initiative so long as one responds properly or pre-emptively.

Odd, I find that the "crit to death" works better with the larger mechs than the smaller ones.  Things like the Stinger basically have two states: "Totally fine" and "Dead".

If you're skipping the "hole punch" step and just going straight to the cluster LB-X rounds, then yeah, I could see you getting a whole lot more head hit kills than normal.

AMS actually isn't that good at lessening the blow of SRMs.  Half-decent against 6-packs sure, but it does little against -4 packs and -2 packs.  It's more for absorbing the impact of big LRM or MRM packs than SRM packs.  It's not a very good counter against SRMs.  (In fact, it's probably inefficient in terms of BV against the SRM-2 pack.)

This paradigm is why I love LBX autocannons as I can do both with one weapon at decent range. 

LBXs are really good, the only consistently good autocannon variant honestly.  Better range than normal autocannons and sometimes cooler running too.  If that wasn't good enough, it gets an alternate ammo type with extra accuracy, good at crit seeking and fantastic at VTOL dropping, and it doesn't pay one extra BV for it.

[Imperium]

Odd, I find that the "crit to death" works better with the larger mechs than the smaller ones.  Things like the Stinger basically have two states: "Totally fine" and "Dead".

Yes, me too actually. I think deaths by TACs and HHs are way more productive against larger Mechs. My point was - they are not LESS productive ion smaller. Yes smaller Mechs are more susceptible to having a 10-15-20 point weapon straight punch through armor and maybe blow something off outright - but if not, it STILL needs to be hit again - and HHs and TACs STILL do work on smaller Mechs. This latter was my point.

Yes, some people will think "since this strat kills bigger mechs fast my small Mech is not susceptible. No. "

If you're skipping the "hole punch" step and just going straight to the cluster LB-X rounds, then yeah, I could see you getting a whole lot more head hit kills than normal.

And I do, like after 2-3 salvos easy. Not by killing the head, but by K/O the pilot.

AMS actually isn't that good at lessening the blow of SRMs.  Half-decent against 6-packs sure, but it does little against -4 packs and -2 packs.  It's more for absorbing the impact of big LRM or MRM packs than SRM packs.  It's not a very good counter against SRMs.  (In fact, it's probably inefficient in terms of BV against the SRM-2 pack.)LBXs are really good, the only consistently good autocannon variant honestly.  Better range than normal autocannons and sometimes cooler running too.  If that wasn't good enough, it gets an alternate ammo type with extra accuracy, good at crit seeking and fantastic at VTOL dropping, and it doesn't pay one extra BV for it.

Thanks. I LOVE SRM Carrier Mechs, cause it can be like the SRM Carrier Machine, but with 5 Jump due to Improved Jump Jets, which is an SRM Carrier with 5 Jump!

Maybe combine that with LBX Carrier in case of Ferro-Lame! Maybe just toss some Meta 2 Gauss, 2 ER PPC into the mix? I dunno, but after 3 posts, it seems the current damage paradigm is being challenged.

[Natasha Kerensky]

RAC/2s are a good alternative for ranged crit-fishing against Ferro-Lam when LB-X cluster is useless and you don’t want to get too close for SRMs.  In sufficient numbers, RAC/5s, HAGs, and/or Streak LRMs can also do the trick, but it’s hard affording the tonnage and space for many of these bigger systems.

I’m currently experimenting with hyper-concentrated hole-punching designs that could in theory do 45-60 points of damage in one salvo against a single hit location, i.e., leg-cappers and torso-corers.  But doing this somewhat reliably seems to require a combination of targeting computer, Clan/MD interface cockpit, and multiple, long-ranged 15-point hitters like ER PPCs and Gauss.  Really reserved for very high-tech heavies/assaults.

Besides hole-punching, critting, and thermal attacks, the other axis of attack against mechs and vehicles is screwing with their targeting and to-hit numbers, i.e., make them blind/dead/dumb.  The Society did this to good effect with iATM IMP ammo and electro-discharge armor on protomechs, especially in combination with thermal attacks that also worsen to-hit modifiers.  Even without the Society’s toys or infernos/plasma cannons, there are things like iNarc Haywire Pods, EMP Mines, and Fluid Gun Obscurant Ammo that can really screw with targeting.  I suppose TSEMP sorta falls into this category as an electric attack, but it’s a sheer shutdown roll, rather than a targeting modifier.

I maintain that the most dangerous anti-mech unit in the game has long been a highly mobile 55-ton mech with TSM-enhanced punches.  Either of those 12-point punches will decapitate nearly any other mech, and you get two punches per turn against a decent base to-hit number.  This physical attack on a mech that can also jump up and down a battle line at 6-7 hexes per turn will ruin most formations.  Add Claws or the Battlefist Quirk and you can really go to town with the damage or accuracy.  Of course, the TSM is countered with thermal attacks, but those infernos and plasma cannons have to hit the fast/jumpy bugger first.

Lastly, there are some interesting combinations of mobility and firepower coming out of the newer, more extreme canon Clan designs.

The Wulfen Prime, for example, combines 10/15 speed, stealth armor, and weapons with a 27-hex range (Ultra AC/2 and ATM ER ammo).  Even against a 6/9 design, the Wulfen Prime can back up faster than the enemy can advance, stay completely out-of-range (or remain nearly unhittable), and plink till the cows come home.  The resulting game on rolling mapsheets would be incredibly boring and frustrating, but it’s still a near-certain win for the Wulfen.

Similarly, the Executioner I combines dual heavy large lasers, twin Streak SRM-6s, and a supercharger on top of its 4-6(8)-4 MASCed movement.  IIRC, with both the SC and MASC engaged, the Executioner I can run past an opponent at 10 hexes per turn and put two 16-point hits and twelve 2-point hits into that opponent’s rear.  Although the combined SC and MASC rolls are risky, that’s a nice rear torso can opening and critting machine.  As long as the SC and MASC don’t give out, it’s like a Fire Moth that could survive multiple backstabbing attacks.

[Greatclub]

So I know the current paradigm is punching holes in armor and exploiting crits, but this really only works with smaller designs, since when armor points get to about 16+points, you need 2 Gauss level hits to punch that armor, and with 20+ that heavies have, it means a Gauss + at least, which is unlikely for several rounds, and that is only the arms.

Thing is, the most common (And usually  cheapest) damage grouping is the five point hit, followed by the 10 point hit. Unless you're cherry-picking your mechs for only 1 and 15 point clusters, the situation you lay out isn't normal.

A gauss hit followed by LRM clusters, autocannon slugs or lasers will strip locations. Yes, that relies on luck and likely will take several turns to become an actual situation, but the same can be said of "golden BB"ing somebody to death. In my experience that only becomes the best tactic when dealing with an upper-range assault.

[MadCapellan]

So I know the current paradigm is punching holes in armor and exploiting crits, but this really only works with smaller designs, since when armor points get to about 16+points, you need 2 Gauss level hits to punch that armor, and with 20+ that heavies have, it means a Gauss + at least, which is unlikely for several rounds, and that is only the arms. I would say, it is better to just bypass this and spam crits and especially Head Hits. In fact, I find with a hit-location spammer, head hits are the MAJORITY of kills, which is great for salvage.

The big problem I see in relying on a "bb to the head" strategy like this is that only 2% of hit locations you roll will be the head. That means 98% of your damage is going elsewhere, & in order to reliably deliver the 3-4 head hits necessary to knock out the pilot (not even killing the 'Mech!) you'd need to deliver somewhere between 156-196 damage points, enough to completely obliterate most 'Mechs outright. Certainly, you may luck out & see the head hits arrive earlier than average, but if we're relying on luck a PPC could just as easily connect & punch clean through the head armor. Not to discount the effectiveness of crit-seeking weapons, but you can much more reliably count on a Gauss Rifle hitting the same torso three times than LB-X cluster scoring enough head hits to remove it.

[Retry]

The big problem I see in relying on a "bb to the head" strategy like this is that only 2% of hit locations you roll will be the head. That means 98% of your damage is going elsewhere, & in order to reliably deliver the 3-4 head hits necessary to knock out the pilot (not even killing the 'Mech!) you'd need to deliver somewhere between 156-196 damage points, enough to completely obliterate most 'Mechs outright. Certainly, you may luck out & see the head hits arrive earlier than average, but if we're relying on luck a PPC could just as easily connect & punch clean through the head armor. Not to discount the effectiveness of crit-seeking weapons, but you can much more reliably count on a Gauss Rifle hitting the same torso three times than LB-X cluster scoring enough head hits to remove it.

It's closer to 3% actually, the actual probability is 1-in-36 for that.

[Daryk]

Don't forget to throw in another 1-in-36 for TACs.  The percentage will be lowered a bit by the need to roll for a crit chance, but when you're dealing with low single digits, every single one matters...  Call it four and something percent chance to get what you're looking for.

[MadCapellan]

It's closer to 3% actually, the actual probability is 1-in-36 for that.

A rounding quibble, yes, it's 2.777..% The point stands that to reliably deliver 4 head hits you'll likely need enough damage to core a medium 'Mech or cripple a heavy anyway, & you'd still need two more for pilot death.

Don't forget to throw in another 1-in-36 for TACs.  The percentage will be lowered a bit by the need to roll for a crit chance, but when you're dealing with low single digits, every single one matters...  Call it four and something percent chance to get what you're looking for.

Those aren't apples to apples, though. If you are trying to kill a 'Mech by head hits, torso crits don't actually help, since gyro & engine hits by and large do not contribute to pilot damage. Since only 41.666..% of TACs will deliver an actual critical hit, you'll need substantially more of them to kill a 'Mech than head hits.

[Daryk]

Gyro hits reliably cause pilot hits in my experience...

[MadCapellan]

Gyro hits reliably cause pilot hits in my experience...

2.77% chance of a TAC x 41.66% chance of a crit x 33.33% chance of a gyro hit x 72.22% of standard pilot failing a PSR for a gyro hit x 72.22% standard pilot failing seatbelt check to avoid damage from fall = 0.0020123%. I'm not really going to lean on those kinds of odds to eliminate an enemy unit.

[massey]

I maintain that the most dangerous anti-mech unit in the game has long been a highly mobile 55-ton mech with TSM-enhanced punches.  Either of those 12-point punches will decapitate nearly any other mech, and you get two punches per turn against a decent base to-hit number.  This physical attack on a mech that can also jump up and down a battle line at 6-7 hexes per turn will ruin most formations.  Add Claws or the Battlefist Quirk and you can really go to town with the damage or accuracy.  Of course, the TSM is countered with thermal attacks, but those infernos and plasma cannons have to hit the fast/jumpy bugger first.

I have to thank you for this.  I saw your post, and it inspired me to try this out.  55 ton mech with 7/11 movement (goes to 8/12 w/ TSM) and an array of lasers that let you hit 9 heat and stay there.  Wow this thing is nice.

[Daryk]

Maybe I just have bad luck, but that 72% chance has felt more like 100% to me...

[Greatclub]

2.77% chance of a TAC x 41.66% chance of a crit x 33.33% chance of a gyro hit x 72.22% of standard pilot failing a PSR for a gyro hit x 72.22% standard pilot failing seatbelt check to avoid damage from fall = 0.0020123%. I'm not really going to lean on those kinds of odds to eliminate an enemy unit.

Yeah. Then they have to stand up, possibly failing and seatbelting multiple times. Then they try to run and it potentially all starts again. Then they take 20 damage and it potentially all starts again.

A gyro hit and a mild run of bad luck is lethal. It isn't something you can count on, but it happens.

[BirdofPrey]

The big problem I see in relying on a "bb to the head" strategy like this is that only 2% of hit locations you roll will be the head. That means 98% of your damage is going elsewhere, & in order to reliably deliver the 3-4 head hits necessary to knock out the pilot (not even killing the 'Mech!) you'd need to deliver somewhere between 156-196 damage points, enough to completely obliterate most 'Mechs outright. Certainly, you may luck out & see the head hits arrive earlier than average, but if we're relying on luck a PPC could just as easily connect & punch clean through the head armor. Not to discount the effectiveness of crit-seeking weapons, but you can much more reliably count on a Gauss Rifle hitting the same torso three times than LB-X cluster scoring enough head hits to remove it.

Yeah, that's the issue I have with this as well.
My experience has been that crit fishing can hasten the demise of a mech a bit finishing off a mech that's already gotten beat up a bit and has taken a few falls or CT crits already, but the sheer volume of fire needed to reliably get enough head hits/TACs can already dismember mechs if you just fire slugs, and even if you are firing nothing but cluster, against anything lighter than an assault mech, you've at least already sanded off most of the armor and disabled half of the equipment.

[Sharkapult]

Gyro hits are cascade failure events. Walking vs running to avoid gyro checks, avoiding melee so you aren't rolling the fall check by getting hit by kicks or missing kicks. That gyro penalty effects a lot more than the initial one round.
I admit the strict odds are against the papercut TAC strategy in general but the rule of "cool and fun" applies.
I mean, I wouldn't try that against a Centurion or Panther or Trebuchet, obviously. I'd just blast them into scrap anyhow. But some big bad brick of nasty like a Dire Wolf or Turkina or Thunderhawk? I'm chewing through a couple hundred armor points anyhow, might as well see if I get a lucky TAC or head hit or two along the way.

[Retry]

2.77% chance of a TAC x 41.66% chance of a crit x 33.33% chance of a gyro hit x 72.22% of standard pilot failing a PSR for a gyro hit x 72.22% standard pilot failing seatbelt check to avoid damage from fall = 0.0020123%. I'm not really going to lean on those kinds of odds to eliminate an enemy unit.

Whole lot of issues going on here.

That 41.66% chance is for at least one crit; a decent chunk of that "at least one" is actually 2 and even 3 crits.  The probability of at least one gyro hit is being under-estimated because of that (and engine crits aren't exactly a walk in the park either).

Even if that were the case, that figure's off by two magnitudes: The probability that each of these events occur is .0277*.4166*.3333*.7222*.7222=.00201=P.  Put back into a percentage, that's 0.201%.  Still very low, but not a trivial threat if you're an Assault getting pelted by tons SRMs or LB 20-X arrays.

Even if that number came out right, Daryk's saying that a gyro hit is a reliable way.  The probability of a pilot hit given that the gyro is hit is equal to P(PSR Failure)*P(Seatbelt check)=~52%, so that's actually a very high chance of a pilot hit once the gyro is hit once.  You calculated the probability of an individual pellet resulting in a 'Mech on its hindquarters with a pilot concussion like some sort of multi-turn rube goldberg machine.  Which is useful, but not what Daryk is referring to.

(FWIW, I also wouldn't rely on tenderizing the pilot to death strategy either, except maybe against Superheavies, but then I'd just as well focus-fire with headcappers.)

[MadCapellan]

That 41.66% chance is for at least one crit; a decent chunk of that "at least one" is actually 2 and even 3 crits.  The probability of at least one gyro hit is being under-estimated because of that (and engine crits aren't exactly a walk in the park either).

You're really going to have to forgive me that I didn't feel like recalculating that for the 13.88% chance of a second crit & 2.77% chance of a third on a Saturday morning, but since the end result is an astronomically small value anyway, I didn't think it was necessary to make my point. The misplaced decimal point is completely on me, though. Mea Culpa.

[massey]

In a larger game (multiple lances), cluster spam is something you turn against an opponent who already got an unlucky head hit or two.

Suppose your opponent's Battlemaster got hit with an SRM-6, and two of those missiles hit him in the face.  This wasn't part of your plan, you just got lucky.  He makes his 5+ consciousness roll, and lumbers on.  This is the sort of thing that may not happen in every game, but it happens often enough it isn't that rare.  Maybe every other large game, some mech is going to eat a couple of shots to the head.  That's when you turn the LB-Xs on him.

A couple of LB-10s will scare the crap out of a guy who has already taken some hits.  I like to have them so I can pounce on some unlucky sucker.

[Fat Guy]

Playing for twos and twelves may work for some, but not for me. I'll just stick to concentrating fire.

Getting a lucky critical or pilot hit is a bonus, not my sole strategy.

[guardiandashi]

there is a way to turn the 1 in 36 chance of a head hit into a 1 in 6 chance... at a significant to hit penalty. At least at my table, which is to use the aiming rules to shift what table you are using.  IE for a -4 penalty to hit (I believe) you "aim high" this is NOT partial cover per the new partial cover rules its instead effectively the old partial cover rules (at an additional +1 to hit penalty. ) do that with an lb-10, or 20x and you are almost guaranteed at least 1 -2 head hits but its a significantly harder shot.

[MadCapellan]

there is a way to turn the 1 in 36 chance of a head hit into a 1 in 6 chance... at a significant to hit penalty. At least at my table, which is to use the aiming rules to shift what table you are using.  IE for a -4 penalty to hit (I believe) you "aim high" this is NOT partial cover per the new partial cover rules its instead effectively the old partial cover rules (at an additional +1 to hit penalty. ) do that with an lb-10, or 20x and you are almost guaranteed at least 1 -2 head hits but its a significantly harder shot.

That's a TacOps rule, & not one I have seen used regularly. Be it an LB-X BB or a Gauss Rifle, making head hits six times more likely does wonky things to game balance.

[Trailblazer]

Didn't somebody do the math or run simulations or something once and find that it didn't actually matter much how big the damage clusters are, and the main thing is quantity of damage? Can't find the link now...

[Natasha Kerensky]

I have to thank you for this.  I saw your post, and it inspired me to try this out.  55 ton mech with 7/11 movement (goes to 8/12 w/ TSM) and an array of lasers that let you hit 9 heat and stay there.  Wow this thing is nice.

Sure thing.  I forgot to mention that not only do you get two punch attacks per turn, but that those attacks roll on the punch hit location table (duh...), which gives each punch a 1-in-6 chance of decapitating the enemy mech.  Like any close combat, it’s a high-risk strategy, but if both fists connect, you’re looking at a 1-in-3 chance of an insta-kill.  AFAIK, it’s the closest thing in BT to a OSK.

The two canon designs that come closest to this paradigm are the EXR-3P Exhumer and the QSM-3D Quasimodo.  Both are 55-tonners with TSM and two unencumbered battlefists.  The Exhumer moves faster but lacks jump jets at 6(7)-9(10), while the Quasimodo is slower but jumps at 5(6)-8(9)-5. 

There are other mobile, 55-ton or so TSM designs, but they carry melee weapons or lack hands, which is a waste of good punch attacks.  Examples include the Hitotsume Kozo, the Ti Ts’ang, and Skinwalker configurations.

None is the ideal 7(8)-11(12)-7 mover with thick/advanced armor, maybe claws/battlefist quirk, and a (mostly pulse) laser array optimized for this job.

[marcussmythe]

I always wanted to try a larger cousin of that approach, only with Talons and TSM and the capability to kick a leg off almost every time...

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

That's a TacOps rule, & not one I have seen used regularly. Be it an LB-X BB or a Gauss Rifle, making head hits six times more likely does wonky things to game balance.

The only time I've seen that rule used was with someone who liked building custom mechs that were loaded with TCs and Clan pulse lasers.  The outcome should be unsurprising.

[Nastyogre]

Once upon a time, I read an analysis of "sandblasting" vs "hole punching." Mathematically, they are the same.  As long as you aren't talking about weapons that will annihilate whole sections of a mech. Ac 20 death/crippling to most anything below 35 tons,  even a full spread of LRMs isn't always that big a deal to the lowly Stinger and Wasp.

Crit seekers like LBX, SAM'S and such do have that ability to pull something out of thin air that no hole puncher can. The inverse is true,.it takes two rolls to do 10 points with an LRM to the head, a PPC or AC 10 shot doesn't just cause a consciousness check, you can kill that pilot.

If you use the optional rule that bigger guns adjust crit rolls, the big guns do better but still do not surpass the crit power of the sandblasted. (Unless you ca. Do 20+ points)

It is really personal style and approach. I've played against good players that just wear you down with volumes of low individual hits. I've played against great players that seem to maneuver and angle you and always shoot that vulnerable side. I've faced players that can't have enough PPCs and ACs.

What fits your situation and better what fits your brain? I got good at hammering people with LRMs and having the same boats (Like Archers and Crusaders) punch and kick you to finish you off. (Archer-FU FTW)

I'm not sure there is a better. Some weapons are underwhelming, but even they work in the right circumstances and when applied Properly (A Rifleman tat pounds out 2 ac 5s every round for 10 rounds once in range while adding smart LL will down everything but the beefiest assaults and heavies and they aren't going to be happy. You just don't want the RFL to become the main target for the big boys)

[StoneRhino]

Don't forget to throw in another 1-in-36 for TACs.  The percentage will be lowered a bit by the need to roll for a crit chance, but when you're dealing with low single digits, every single one matters...  Call it four and something percent chance to get what you're looking for.

Basically you end up with a 5% chance of landing the kind of shot that you want. 2.5% it hits the head, 2.5% chance you hit TAC. I think its about a 48% chance of a getting at least 1 crit, which is rather high.

It comes down to playing roulette, which is my game. I can tell you that I have spent hours playing in Vegas and not hit a specific number that I like to play. Why do I like to play it if it rarely hits? I don't know, its part of the fun I guess. Its the same game with BT and dice rolling, you can hope to hit those numbers, but its going to be rare. When you add in the need to roll for the crit you reduce your chance by a bit over half. This means that you have 2.5% of hitting the head, and less then 1.25% of getting a crit, which means that you have a 3.75% chance of success. That doesn't mean that you will eventually hit as you can miss every single chance.

3.75% isn't great, and yes you can hit several times in a row, however it becomes highly improbable. We also need to consider how often you are going to hit with your weapons in the first place since if you miss there is zero percent chance of hitting the head or crit. I have seen tons of nonsense when it comes to the luck of opposing players where they shoot on 12+ and magically land their 1 or 2 shots that they took. Meanwhile I have 20 shots that need 5+ but roll 2-4 on all but 2 or 3. Depending upon how controlled people are, the conditions, the weapons being used helps to determine the chances of hitting. I personally assume that I am going to miss with half of my shots, and then miss with half of the possible clusters/srms. I know that is far from accurate, but I know that I am able to control my TN#s well enough that with average dice rolls I should hit at least half the time.

The question we need to ask is what kind of weapon is being used? SRMs are great for short range, but is an LBX 20 firing clusters really worth it? That cluster shot, if it hits, is likely to hit with 12 clusters, something that even a damaged light mech isn't going to fear. Against a mech that has most of it's armor intact, its unlikely to mean much. Against a mech that is missing armor in a torso or head location it will mean more as the chance of hitting a crit is increased because of those holes. However, if a unit is that bad off then a 20point slug has a potential to hurt even more as its likely to destroy a location without armor instead of trying to crit something inside.

I can't say that going for crits is a bad thing as I'm a fan of AC2s, Krakens, and LBX10s. Even with my horrible luck, and I mean that I have low TN#s with a significant volume of rolls as opposed to dopes that have a few shots that are swinging at 10+ and miss, I have crippled assaults in 1-3 turns. The crits are typically gyro shots or engine hits, not enough to destroy the unit but cripple the other player's ability to make use of it. I always have something in my force that allows me to have that chance of critting something, but I would never suggest that someone rely upon it as it is a very weak plan. One of the last games that I played someone decided to run 3 Krakens, but sporting LBX2s instead of ultras. They crippled some tanks of mine, but only after they got into position. The damage output allowed me to throw a light lance at them and cause some problems. I know that there were some crits, but my lance was able to wear them down faster then they could be critted to death. Had their assaults had some short range damage potential, or better screening then I might not have been able to close with the light lance and slowly cut them down. Because of their inability to kill the light lance I was able to move in heavier units which helped finish the job.

[Kovax]

As said, the effectiveness of crit-seeking versus concentrated damage comes down to how well armored the target happens to be.  A thinly armored target is more likely to be disabled or critically damaged by concentrated damage punching through the armor and going internal, while a heavily armored target is less likely to be significantly affected by one or two large hits, even in the same location, so that generally leaves critical hits as a more viable option.  Fighting a Stinger, I'll go for a big gun and remove body parts with a single hit.  Facing an Atlas, I'll probably choose to farm critical hits or head shots (SRMs or LBX cluster rounds, followed by punches), because hole-punching is much more difficult, requiring several high-damage hits in the same location, while the odds of obtaining critical hits are basically unchanged from one target to the next.

It can also be affected by the placement of ammo or other components.  Choosing to back-shoot a HBK-4G with MLs is preferable to spamming SRMs against the same location, because even a single ML hit to the L/R rear torso locations will go internal and offer a chance for a critical hit on either the ammo or the weapon in the opposite torso side (leaving a HBK either with only a pair of MLs and a SL for firepower, or else as a smoking crater), whereas it would take 3 SRMs to hit the same location in order to achieve the same effect.  On the other hand, once the rear armor has been breached, crit-spamming is extremely effective.  A TBT-5N or MAD-3R has unpadded ammo in one of its torso sides, so trying to place a pair of 10-point hits (or multiple 5 point damage groups) onto that vulnerable torso side is about as viable as general crit-seeking.

Like so many other things in BT, there are places where it works well, and places where it's a much less viable tactic.

[massey]

The advantage to the bigger LB-Xs is that with more than one ton of ammo, you can do both.  An LB-20 shooting cluster is probably inferior to 2 Streak SRM-6s (it gets a -1 to-hit, and is immune to anti-missile, but otherwise it's worse in almost every way).  But if you shoot a couple rounds of slug ammo into them first to soften them up, then clusters become a lot more effective.