Yeah. I'm gonna run a very rough rundown of thoughts: (please forgive lack of non-english letters)
Eastern Front: Stalin dies early from a stroke, in mid-1944. Operation Bagration still goes off, but with the political power vacuum there's much confusion in high command, and the deception attempts are less successful. The Germans slow the advance, and instead of taking Warsaw the Soviet forces only make it as far as Lwow and Brzesc. This puts them right around the Curzon line and our 1947 border, so modern maps will be acceptable to work with. Once things settle in Moscow, with a short chain of short-lived successors, Nikita Khrushchev ends up in power about the time the war ends in March of 1945. Bagration does succeed somewhat into pushing into Romania, but not far, leaving Marshal Tito plenty of room to expand his own empire postwar.
Western Front: Operation Market Garden doesn't run into the 2nd Panzer, which is refitting elsewhere, and is generally considered a success. The Ardennes offensive still goes off in late 1944, and is generally rebuffed as a last-gasp attempt, the Allies doing just enough to slow it down while driving hard for Berlin - doubly so with the Soviet failure in the East. Berlin is taken by March 1945, ending the European theater.
Without a Yalta conference, division of Europe is predicated on postwar standings - the British support a free Poland, on the border of the Soviet Union, and return the exiled government and many of its soldiers in British service. Meanwhile the west is divided - Truman's focus is on the Pacific, and this allows a different division of Germany - Berlin will still be administrated by the four major powers (GB, US, USSR, France) while the Ruhr valley and some of western Germany is absorbed into France. The rest is divided North and South, with capitals in Hanover and Nuremburg.
Tito pushes his armies into Greece and eastern Italy, while the French take portions of the west - the central and southern portion of the country is brought under the control of the Vatican and pacified, in a larger-scale version of the city-state. Swiss forces guard this area, with official leadership from the Pope.
Poland forms a buffer state in northern Europe, the Soviets accepting this barrier between them and Germany on a strategic level, while eyeing the Balkans. Much of the German army still occupied the country at the end of the war; Polish pressure forces them to leave their heavier equipment in place while the soldiers return home. Agreements between the British, Americans, and Soviets leave them without direct support from either side as far as military alliances or sales go, forcing Poland in a position to go it alone as the barrier between both sides.
The USA focuses on the pacific, popular opinion against further meddling in Europe; atomic weapons are developed on schedule and used on Japan. Little changes in this regard. Opinions on colonial possessions, and the British economy, drive a further rift between them and the Americans, and the Empire continues to exist with many of their wartime holdings intact. This leaves Britain administering North Germany, while the Nuremburg Republic tries to gather itself back together, and France directly supporting Poland as the only major nation that didn't sign the above treaty.
Khrushchev's plans for the future still involve deeper buffer states, but on a subtler basis - much more attention is paid to subversion and political pressure rather than invasions such as Hungary in 1956, historically. Yugoslavia is willing to prop up Romania against the Russians, while nibbling hard on Bulgaria, Albania, and Greece. Meanwhile Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Austria trade borders and deal with the burgeoning Soviet threat; France quickly aligns itself at the head of this growing alliance.
Poland itself isn't simply content to stay on defense - once they were more secured strategically, annexation of eastern territories of the German states that were historically Polish came quickly against the British-backed Germans. Border skirmishes with the Czechs continue with both sides claiming swaths of land, while the Baltic Trio end up in open revolt against the Soviets, with Polish support - precipitating the first war in 1954. This sees limited success, as the Soviets are powerful militarily, but know that taking Poland means losing the buffer state they have with the west as well as invites retaliation from an atomic-armed America. They are quite happy to beat on the Polish forces, if it means a weaker neighbor. The border generally remains where it is, though the freed Lithiuania, Latvia, and Estonia join the Franco-Polish counter-Soviet alliance. Finland and Sweden remain neutral, while Norway does join in as well.
Strategic Considerations:
Poland has, well, the 900 pound bear in the room on its eastern border. To the south are two slightly smaller nations that have had much more support in rebuilding from the West, and there are more than a few disputed territorial claims. To the west is a British-rebuilt Germany, slowly becoming one nation de facto if not de jure. North is the Scandinavians and Baltics, with major defense contributions to the latter trio and a very strong need to keep them supported.
Without NATO, Poland primarily has itself, Israel, South Africa, and France for military equipment it can't yet build. It got off a little bit lighter this time around without the Soviet invasion during and after Bagration historically, but that's not saying much. Early on most of their armaments would be abandoned German hardware, though as the French industry comes up they'll get a lot of castoffs from them and the low countries. Poland may not be economically strong, but its natural resources are fine trades for the French - iron and coal chiefly.
So come 1975, you've got a larger Yugoslavia with Romania and Bulgaria divided between them and the USSR to the far south, Czechoslovakia to the south with Hungary caught in between, and Italy and Germany both broken at least partially absorbed. France is the major power on the continent, while Spain has remained neutral under Franco (which won't last) and the Low Countries focusing mostly on their distant colonies along with the English, occasionally fighting over various holdings. Poland itself lacks these colonies, focusing instead on the historically-Polish territory absorbed into the Ukrainian and Byelorussian SSRs. The Kaliningrad region is absorbed into Poland, while claims on Vilnius were dropped as part of the Baltic agreement. The Americans are mostly out of Europe, with only token forces left in the Nuremburg Republic, and British forces help defend North Germany.
Strategically, they need to hold off what they can of a potential Soviet invasion, Fulda-Gap style, with as much French support as they can beg, borrow, or steal. Instability in the south requires attention, while the two German territories are always going to be a danger no matter what year it is; past that the Baltic sea and the "Copenhagen Gate" to the Atlantic is also critical as it is the primary means of French support. While there's no atomics in Poland there is still a last-resort/deterrent force of chemical weapons, primarily aimed at the Soviets as a counter to the Strategic Rocket Forces. Everything else is conventional forces.
I wish this hadn't taken so long, but I hadn't considered a lot of things which quickly became apparent in the early iterations of this thread. Hopefully this gives a much better foundation to build on, without breaking politics rules - we're sticking to an entirely alternate history.
So it's 1975, feel free to suggest any battles in the past outside of the 1954-1957 war with the Soviets; the attempt to regain Polish territory and expand the border mostly failed but counterattacks were also generally blunted. The end of the war saw the rough reestablishment of the same border, though at least the Baltics were broken free of Soviet control. Fights with Czechoslovakia or expansion against Germany, feel free to come up with ideas; the same goes for the Baltic sea - it's a lifeline, and there's probably been skirmishes there as well.
Military equipment would be French, Israeli, or South African for the most part. Israel shipping isn't too hard, connecting through southern France and then around Denmark, but South African hardware has a long way to go. As far as an army goes, I'd like at least one expeditionary arm of the force, primarily for the Baltics as well as an offensive force should war break out again, though the primary focus is on defense of the homeland and allies. Again sticking to 1975 for a specific year, with a semi-revived aristocracy (titles and honors were a great idea for rewarding the exiled government officials, especially without money to pay them) at a social level only, and a very determined "never again" mindset despite being mostly alone in the world.
Size? Capabilities? Makeup? I know we did a lot early on...but all the discussions we had led me to this concept and I rather like it. Hit me!
(Edit: one change, flipped the status of Sweden and Norway, had them mixed up)
