ilClan speculations and ideas 20 years in ?

[Metallgewitter]

It absolutely does. I’m citing Rock of the republic, which was part of HotW before it got spun off that bloated mess to become its own thing. Stone ran out of people who would and could fight that had sufficient training to be useful. This was a guy who turned Terra to a war footing. If they could have trained more at a time, they would have. Thanks to BS artificial limits out in place to cripple the RotS enough to pretend that we could pretend the wolves earned a win, wolves are stuck with it too.

The odd thing is that Terra could have even civies fighting against the clans. Japan would be the best example the entire population swapmed and destroyed one Falcon galaxy. So even if you can't train huge swaths of Terra's population to soldiers whipping up the population to resist could have been ossible. and don't bring up the "but alaric blew a city up to discourage partisans" story. If the Republic's last gasp was really modeled after Downfall then I would have expected huge swaths of the population wipped up by Stone to fight. Anyone can make a molotov cocktail and throw it at stuff. Just like refusing to use the nukes they still had.

While the wolves have an advantage as they won't need many new machines should they keep their touman "Clan pure" any battle with huge losses will reduce this sentiment. New Wolf Clan warriors will take at least one and a half decade to come into the touman unless they can get new ones from their empire which I daresay will be impossible. Heck, give it a few years and Terrans might occupy more important positions in the Wolf Clan then thought possible. Basically Terra absorbing the Wolves however unlikely it is.

[Church14]

The odd thing is that Terra could have even civies fighting against the clans. Japan would be the best example the entire population swapmed and destroyed one Falcon galaxy. So even if you can't train huge swaths of Terra's population to soldiers whipping up the population to resist could have been ossible. and don't bring up the "but alaric blew a city up to discourage partisans" story.

I need you to breathe into a bag until things get fuzzy. You’re applying rational arguments to Hour of the Wolf. We can’t have that, or the entire book falls apart.

If the Republic's last gasp was really modeled after Downfall then I would have expected huge swaths of the population wipped up by Stone to fight. Anyone can make a molotov cocktail and throw it at stuff. Just like refusing to use the nukes they still had. 

You’ve got the wrong bizarre historical analogue. BLP thought Stone was Adolf Hitler, not Hirohito

New Wolf Clan warriors will take at least one and a half decade to come into the touman unless they can get new ones from their empire which I daresay will be impossible. Heck, give it a few years and Terrans might occupy more important positions in the Wolf Clan then thought possible. Basically Terra absorbing the Wolves however unlikely it is.

I love the “you have conquered Earth, now wait while you are assimilated into earth” idea. I just don’t want CGL going “see RotS fans? You still have someone to root for” if they do that.

But yeah, wolves should have plenty of hardware. It’s just people they are desperately short on. Like they only took the “necessary” civvies to the Empire from the OZ, then took only a fraction of that to Terra. They are going to try to forcefully rule Terra with what seems like less than 10000 people between military and lower castes.

[Natasha Kerensky]

Stone ran out of people who would and could fight that had sufficient training to be useful.

The question in the OP is what will happen to the ilClan five or so years down the line.  Yes, if Alaric is slammed by massive Capellan and Horse invasions just weeks after winning Terra, he won’t have time to train up a new touman.  But half a decade?  With access to Terra’s population?  He can raise a touman larger than any the Clans have seen before.

Thanks to BS artificial limits out in place to cripple the RotS enough to pretend that we could pretend the wolves earned a win, wolves are stuck with it too.

It’s very hard to raise armies in the middle of war, especially when you’re the one being invaded.  That’s why Stone “ran out of people”.  (Just see what’s happening with a certain war in Eastern Europe right now.)

Alaric is not in that position.  Terra belongs solely to the Wolves. 

The OP’s question is what happens to the ilClan five or so year down the line.  If the Wolves remains the sole possessor of Terra for five or so years, that enormous resource could be transformative for them, if that’s a direction the authors want to go.

Wolves do not have that luxury of super secret buildup.

The current in-universe timeline has barely progressed past the Wolf capture of Terra.  We don’t know if the ilClan will have years to build up an army on Terra or if the Capellans and Horses will be landing weeks later. 

The OP was asking about five years later.  My point is that the population and latent military industrial capacity of Terra could supply an enormous buildup given a half-decade.

Wolves own those academies now, but they have entire classes of RAF trainees indoctrinated against them. It’ll be years before any meaningful numbers come their way, and it’ll be mostly infantry and tankers, who they don’t want.

Clanners have their own training system(s), and although they may leverage RotS facilities and maybe even trainers, the Wolves (and Foxes and Ravens and whoever else shows up) won’t be constrained by what the RotS used, either.

If we used the actual real world percentages for fighting age people who volunteer to sign up, every army in the sphere would be 400X larger. We can’t use real life, practical assumptions. Battletech never has. Why suddenly unlock the 400X multiplier after forty years?

No one suggested that.  I pointed out that 0.00004% of the population of Terra and Mars would be enough to support 100 galaxies.  That touman would represent an infinitesimal percentage of Terra’s population, just like every army in the BT universe represents an infinitesimal percentage of its parent population.

The Houses have had 100+ regiment-sized armies.  A 100-galaxy ilClan touman (or SLDF or whatever) is in that ballpark.

If the ilClan if going to challenge the Houses, it’s going to need a House-sized (or larger) army.  Unless the Wolves have a huge crop of trueborns in their late teens, recruiting an infinitesimal percentage of Terra’s population is the quickest path to a House-sized army for the ilClan. 

[Natasha Kerensky]

Basically Terra absorbing the Wolves however unlikely it is.

This is what usually happens in real-world history.  As competent as the invaders or conquerors are, they get swamped by demographics and bigger populations after a few generations.  The royal children of Norse Rus who ruled the rivers of what we now call Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus had Slavic names within three or four generations of Kiev’s founding.  Alaric the Visigoth may have sacked Rome, but the Western Empire was really lost when the Romans kept giving away rule of the provinces and leadership of the legions to German-speaking citizens/“barbarians”.

This is what could happen to the ilClan — it just gets swamped by Terran or other Spheroid populations.

But with their iron wombs, the growth of Clan populations is also not constrained biologically in the same way as Spheroid populations.  That could also be a source of tremendous ilClan growth or sustainment if the authors wanted.

My guess is that a very large ilClan SLDF is recruited that consists mostly of Spheroids from Terra or other Clan holdings, while the former Wolf/ilClan touman proper of trueborns and Clan freeborns remains relatively smaller by comparison.  But that’s just a guess.

FWIW...

[Metallgewitter]

For the clan's iron wombs to overcome the billions on Terra they probably have to run overtime. While Terrans are known to have their families rather late (if they still act like described in the Jihad Hotspot Terra) there are billions of them. And who knows if any Spheroid personality rises high enough in the hierarchy they might curb this artifical breeding. Or even force the usage of IS genes further "mudding" the gene stock. And let's not forget unlike the Pentagon civil war where Nicolas and his followers had all the time in the world to rebuild this time there is no shield as the Wall has run out of fuel (unless the Wolves sacrifice every Jumpship they have). They might have no material shortages as they probably have more Mechs then living pilots they also have bascially no real reserves unless a portion of the "unemployed " RAF decides to join (not talking about those that joined during the trial to defeat Malvina). Of course they could call upon the Bears and Ravens but the Ravens have a rather small touman (except their fleet) and the Bears have decided to wage another war right after loosing one third of their touman. And the Foxes are something of a Joker as I see them currently more as opportunists then real allies. Who knows maybe they decide to instigate a coup should Alaric push too hard. Never mess with Com...uhm the Space Phone company

[Wrangler]

In the end, it's what moves the game along and makes it playable setting.  I honestly not trying get myself wrapped up in anything now, since it's too inconsistent to actual logic how the universe is working.

Unless something drastic happens, with up tick in JumpShips to move armies and restaffing of the ilClan armed forces, I honestly don't see a lot movement demographically.  Only big smash I expect is mix up between Clans and the Capellans, leading to Daoshen's demise.

Tamar rising further would require them to have additional industry built up, along with trade.  I'm sure Hell's Horses will cause trouble muscling in on the Hinderlands weaker factions. Those smaller factions don't have forces fend them off unless Horses are weaker than advertised. 

If the Wolf Empire doesn't get additional reinforcements, the League will likely take more worlds but not all.

Dragon going lick it's wounds and likely regroup for another go-around to whom ever they can get away with being conquerored and gain most resources. 

Again,  I would like see 20 year jump, but too many people complain.  However, I am not seeing universe timeline wise moving much faster than when we were stuck in 3067 for what...10 years?

[BrianDavion]

so here's a thought, what if the rush to occupy the wolf empire leads to open conflict between the FWL and the LC as they essentially go to war over the empire's corpse?

[rebs]

This is what usually happens in real-world history.  As competent as the invaders or conquerors are, they get swamped by demographics and bigger populations after a few generations.  The royal children of Norse Rus who ruled the rivers of what we now call Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus had Slavic names within three or four generations of Kiev’s founding.  Alaric the Visigoth may have sacked Rome, but the Western Empire was really lost when the Romans kept giving away rule of the provinces and leadership of the legions to German-speaking citizens/“barbarians”.

This is what could happen to the ilClan — it just gets swamped by Terran or other Spheroid populations.

But with their iron wombs, the growth of Clan populations is also not constrained biologically in the same way as Spheroid populations.  That could also be a source of tremendous ilClan growth or sustainment if the authors wanted.

My guess is that a very large ilClan SLDF is recruited that consists mostly of Spheroids from Terra or other Clan holdings, while the former Wolf/ilClan touman proper of trueborns and Clan freeborns remains relatively smaller by comparison.  But that’s just a guess.

FWIW...

Same with the Norse - and a little later, with the Normans - in Ireland.  As the chronicles and early manuscripts basically say, 'the invaders came and took our lands and waterways as conquerors, but in a few generations they became more Irish than the Irish themselves.'

Yet unless there's going to be a time jump of sorts (not likely), we're not going see this any time soon. 

None of us can predict what lays in store between now and then, most of us can only extrapolate from the information we have now - which is by no means omniscient or complete.

[Church14]

The question in the OP is what will happen to the ilClan five or so years down the line.  Yes, if Alaric is slammed by massive Capellan and Horse invasions just weeks after winning Terra, he won’t have time to train up a new touman.  But half a decade?  With access to Terra’s population?  He can raise a touman larger than any the Clans have seen before.

Not sure why. Pretty sure Alaric’s loss of the Empire (per RR showing Othar is pretty solidly done with Alaric) means he actually now has a smaller population base to raise an army from. Terra is densely populated, but it’s now 12 billion against the what? A half a trillion people in the sphere? Sorry, but no math that isn’t favoritism puts the wolves as having a massive army relative to anyone to swamp the sphere. If they get a massive recruitment drive, then everyone else should, and we entered the tedious millions of souls on each side of a WH40k army.

And why would Alaric get a break over five years? He has CC possibly constantly sniping at any excursions, DC may start something, FWL might even reach Terra. Horses may arrive. Shoot, the corpse of the RotS may lash out a few times as well. I don’t see Terra having a moment to breathe.

Remember. RotS had a decade behind the wall to buildup. We’ve seen the limits of Terra. That’s been an immutable fact in the setting since 2018. Terra and the worlds near it cannot support a war on every front.

Clanners have their own training system(s), and although they may leverage RotS facilities and maybe even trainers, the Wolves (and Foxes and Ravens and whoever else shows up) won’t be constrained by what the RotS used, either.

Amusing detail, but per FM3145, the RotS training systems are more effective than clan training. The average RAF regiment was better trained than the average clanner and RAF didn’t have to start from age ten. Yes, the few data points we have show they were better trained than the wolves in spite of the twin dumpsters of Shattered Fortress and HotW.

No one suggested that.  I pointed out that 0.00004% of the population of Terra and Mars would be enough to support 100 galaxies.  That touman would represent an infinitesimal percentage of Terra’s population, just like every army in the BT universe represents an infinitesimal percentage of its parent population.

The Houses have had 100+ regiment-sized armies.  A 100-galaxy ilClan touman (or SLDF or whatever) is in that ballpark.

You suggested a massive, contrived increase of wolf efficiency to let them keep winning. Rots had ten years behind the wall. During that time, they trained and maintained about 4500 mechs and mechwarriors. That included all of the assets of prefecture X, which was around 42 billion people. That was 4500 well trained pilots during a time when they could build up unmolested.

Wolves get a fourth of that population with Terra. Let’s pretend they can build up. That means about 1100 mechjocks. About 25 clusters, or 5 galaxies. Mind you, clans have never pulled as efficiently from populations as the IS. Clans in the sphere tend to be about a third to half of what the IS generates for mech warriors by population. In order for your ideas to work, wolves have to recruit far more efficiently than anyone in the living history of the setting. By a massive margin.

If the ilClan if going to challenge the Houses, it’s going to need a House-sized (or larger) army.  Unless the Wolves have a huge crop of trueborns in their late teens, recruiting an infinitesimal percentage of Terra’s population is the quickest path to a House-sized army for the ilClan.

Honest question: why should the ilclan be able to challenge the houses in bare years? Why give them that plot armor? What possible interesting future is “LOL, wolves win again?” A far more engaging future is watching clans have to compromise and come to terms that the ilclan is nothing more than a sheet of paper taped tomTerra’s throne until they cooperate and make it more.

[Natasha Kerensky]

For the clan's iron wombs to overcome the billions on Terra they probably have to run overtime.

Not really.  They just have to support a substantially higher birth rate per Clanner than the birth rate per Terran.  Over time, a higher birth rate allows a smaller population to hold out against, and eventually outnumber, a larger one.

Aside from the Goons using Iron Wombs to boost their numbers, the ability to dial in their demographics is a Clan advantage over the Houses that’s never really been explored in the canon.  It could (maybe should) be in the ilClan Era.

Not sure why. Pretty sure Alaric’s loss of the Empire (per RR showing Othar is pretty solidly done with Alaric) means he actually now has a smaller population base to raise an army from. Terra is densely populated, but it’s now 12 billion against the what? A half a trillion people in the sphere?

No, it’s whatever touman or SLDF the ilClan is able to raise in the Terran system (or elsewhere) against the House militaries.  Everyone else is usually sheeple in BT, and their allegiances and motivations only count if they join one of these tiny armies or if the authors need a guerrilla or partisan campaign.

And why would Alaric get a break over five years?

The OP was asking for a five-year projection.  I don’t think it’s a bad assumption that some combination of the Wall, Raven fleet, and internal Liao family politics will keep the Capellans out of the Terran system for at least a half-decade.  And I don’t think it’s a bad assumption that the Horses won’t make a drive on Terra and will be involved with the Hinterlands for another half-decade instead.  That doesn’t mean that there won’t be skirmishes outside the Terran system.  But I would guess that the ilClan has Terra’s population and industry to itself for some years to come.  We’ll see if the authors do so and what they let the ilClan do with Terra’s resources.

Remember. RotS had a decade behind the wall to buildup. We’ve seen the limits of Terra. That’s been an immutable fact in the setting since 2018.

The RotS figures in FM: 3145 never made any sense to me, either.  Rightly or wrongly, I agree that the RotS was set up for a fall.  HotW was a dumpster fire.  So was DD.

Regardless, it’s now the ilClan Era.  The ilClan is not being set up for a fall.  The ilClan will have wins and likely expand.  My point is that the population and industry of Terra can logically support such a direction if the authors want to pay attention those details instead of ignoring them like they did with the RotS.

Amusing detail, but per FM3145, the RotS training systems are more effective than clan training.

There’s no evidence for this.  I agree that the RotS should have had a larger military in FM: 3145.  Assuming that the authors weren’t ignoring demographics and industry and weren’t setting the RotS up for a fall, the fact that the RotS didn’t have a larger military indicates that either the RotS recruitment and training system on Terra was really inefficient and/or that they failed to leverage Terra’s latent military industry. 

The average RAF regiment was better trained than the average clanner

Green/Regular/Veteran/Elite unit ratings reflect more than just training.  Even if they did only reflect training, the Clan system produces Gunnery and Piloting skills that are better on average than Spheroid skills.

Wolves get a fourth of that population with Terra. Let’s pretend they can build up. That means about 1100 mechjocks. About 25 clusters, or 5 galaxies.

The Wolves/ilClan are not necessarily constrained by the ineffective recruitment system that was implied for the RotS.  We’ll see what the authors do, but when we’re talking about such tiny percentages of such a large population, there’s effectively no difference between 5 galaxies and 100 galaxies in terms of the numbers that could be recruited.

Honest question: why should the ilclan be able to challenge the houses in bare years? Why give them that plot armor?

Because they’ll have to.  It’s the ilClan Era.  It’s not the Era of Houses Beating Up on the Clans.  By definition, the Clans will be challenging the Houses in this era and maybe even bringing the Houses to heel.  That’s not plot armor.  That’s just the rough story arc of the current timeline.

The remains of the Lyran Commonwealth have given us a preview of what the Clans can do to a House.  Alaric wants constant war between the Clans and Houses.  And there are commitments to reestablishing the Cats and Jags.  Regardless of how the exact details develop, it’s pretty clear that the Houses will be on the back foot during the ilClan Era.

To do that, the ilClan will likely need a sizable army.  Again, Terra has a large population and a sizable latent military industry that could support such a military if the authors wanted it to.  That’s all.

You suggested a massive, contrived increase of wolf efficiency to let them keep winning.

I did no such thing.  I get that you’re a RotS fan and unhappy with HotW and other recent developments.  I don’t blame you and actually agree that the demise of the RotS was contrived.  But that has nothing to do with my points about how the latent resources of Terra could support the transformation of the Wolves into the ilClan if that’s the direction the authors want to go.  I’m not the millstone against which your RotS axe should be ground.  Please don’t involve me in that any further here.

All the best.  Take care.

[Minemech]

Regardless, it’s now the ilClan Era.  The ilClan is not being set up for a fall.  The ilClan will have wins and likely expand.  My point is that the population and industry of Terra can logically support such a direction if the authors want to pay attention those details instead of ignoring them like they did with the RotS.

This is where we necessarily part ways. I have an alternative reading where the ilClan era uses the demise of the ilClan to push radical changes into Clan thought that crater previous understanding of what it meant to be a Clan. All of the Clans see the rise of an ilClan as permanently necessitating that there be an ilClan, but one of them must fill the void while nearly if not all claim to (Similar to how the Romans lasted a millennium after the fall of Rome, yet there were many claiming the title of Roman Emperor after a pope crowned Charlemagne). It is an age defined by a philosophical discourse of trying to determine what ilClan means, and what it ought to have been amidst a Succession War. The Clans are forced to cede to the reality that simply controlling Terra was bluster, there had to be more behind it. They are furthermore forced to confront the reality that Nicholas Kerensky was a very poor leader, plausibly after the Wolves release his real biography and histories during a dispute, as well as their own learning of the real history of the Star League.

 If written properly, this could make for some riveting reading, with oldskool Mechwarrior style novels for those less interested in the background story.

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

For the clan's iron wombs to overcome the billions on Terra they probably have to run overtime. While Terrans are known to have their families rather late (if they still act like described in the Jihad Hotspot Terra) there are billions of them. ...

And all Wolves need to do is recruit the tiniest fraction of them to raise the mother of all armies

Masses love winners

And who knows if any Spheroid personality rises high enough in the hierarchy they might curb this artifical breeding....

Any individual, freebirth or otherwise, who suggests something like this even in passing would immediately get their noggin cracked open and their spilled brain would be presented as an argument against their suggestion

...Or even force the usage of IS genes further "mudding" the gene stock. ...

There's no such thing as "mudding" the stock

Fresh genes from all over the settled universe (IS including, it's not a super special place) have been getting added to trueborn programe regularly

[Church14]

The RotS figures in FM: 3145 never made any sense to me, either.  Rightly or wrongly, I agree that the RotS was set up for a fall.  HotW was a dumpster fire.  So was DD.

There’s no evidence for this.  I agree that the RotS should have had a larger military in FM: 3145.  Assuming that the authors weren’t ignoring demographics and industry and weren’t setting the RotS up for a fall, the fact that the RotS didn’t have a larger military indicates that either the RotS recruitment and training system on Terra was really inefficient and/or that they failed to leverage Terra’s latent military industry. 

Green/Regular/Veteran/Elite unit ratings reflect more than just training.  Even if they did only reflect training, the Clan system produces Gunnery and Piloting skills that are better on average than Spheroid skills.

It’s nothing to do with being a RotS fan. I’m citing details from sourcebooks and novels. You are ignoring them. Look at the unit experience/quality rankings in FM3145. Simply put, the IS training/unit effectiveness got better over time, while the clans stagnated or deteriorated.

The evidence is in the Wolf touman. Their frontline galaxies - the ones stocked with trueborns taught to fight from age ten or so - are still averaging out to veteran. They’ve made no material advances in training. What we do see is when they have limited time to train like with their second line forces, the quality drops off. It averages around regular. We could blame this on spheroid candidates, but RAF is delivering a higher quality in the same time frame than the wolves with the same quality candidates. Even more, every clan has seen the average drop.

Ignore the sourcebook if you wish, but this is a set of hard data points. Not really a debate. We also have novels citing that republic simulators were exceptional.

The Wolves/ilClan are not necessarily constrained by the ineffective recruitment system that was implied for the RotS.  We’ll see what the authors do, but when we’re talking about such tiny percentages of such a large population, there’s effectively no difference between 5 galaxies and 100 galaxies in terms of the numbers that could be recruited.

There’s nothing implying the RotS recruitment was ineffective. That’s fan fiction on your end unless you can cite me something.

Regardless, it’s now the ilClan Era.  The ilClan is not being set up for a fall.  The ilClan will have wins and likely expand. 

Because they’ll have to.  It’s the ilClan Era.  It’s not the Era of Houses Beating Up on the Clans.  By definition, the Clans will be challenging the Houses in this era and maybe even bringing the Houses to heel.  That’s not plot armor.  That’s just the rough story arc of the current timeline.

The remains of the Lyran Commonwealth have given us a preview of what the Clans can do to a House.  Alaric wants constant war between the Clans and Houses.  And there are commitments to reestablishing the Cats and Jags.  Regardless of how the exact details develop, it’s pretty clear that the Houses will be on the back foot during the ilClan Era.

To do that, the ilClan will likely need a sizable army.  Again, Terra has a large population and a sizable latent military industry that could support such a military if the authors wanted it to.  That’s all.

- Star league era ended with a dead star league.
- Succession wars ended with broken and tired houses
- The clan invasion era ended with the clans getting their front door kicked in, one of their own slaughtered, and their dreams of holding Terra dashed by the inner sphere beating them at their own game
- FedCom Civil war ended with a dead FedCom broken into component states
- jihad ended with a dead WoB
- The republic era and follow up dark ages ended with a dead republic

So what makes you think the ilClan era ends with a happy, successful ilClan?

I get that you’re a RotS fan and unhappy with HotW and other recent developments.  I don’t blame you and actually agree that the demise of the RotS was contrived.  But that has nothing to do with my points about how the latent resources of Terra could support the transformation of the Wolves into the ilClan if that’s the direction the authors want to go.  I’m not the millstone against which your RotS axe should be ground.  Please don’t involve me in that any further here.

I find the last bit amusing coming from someone who decided to take an iconic wolf name for their handle. It’s nothing to do with a RotS fan or not. Dead republic is what it is, I just wish it would have been done with any sense of dignity and not ax grinding. Overall, I like the ilclan era. I enjoy what’s being set up. I’m enjoying DC and FWL for the first time, which is a nice surprise. But the weakest part is by far Terra and the wolves, and I don’t want to see a continued string of unjustifiable wolf successes drag the rest of the era down. They are the weakest faction relative to the sphere that has ever held Terra, and that includes compared the the RotS. There’s no consistent in universe logic that puts the wolves way ahead in just five years. 

But, we derailed into the weeds and can swing back around and let the thread get more focused on topic.

[JAMES_PRYDE]

Hmmmm, maybe I did not use correct phrasing in the OP

I meant that within the first 5 years, Alaric is gone, then the next 15 years worth of civil, political, and military integration of the populace of the "new league" has had it own for want of a better word "RoTs integrations and pax", what would the IS map/populace look like in 3172 at that point.

The thought was to do a thought experiment and a mini time jump 20 years in, like they did with Dark Age, just not as long, and get ideas or speculations.

To how the melting pot would look

[rebs]

Hmmmm, maybe I did not use correct phrasing in the OP

I meant that within the first 5 years, Alaric is gone, then the next 15 years worth of civil, political, and military integration of the populace of the "new league" has had it own for want of a better word "RoTs integrations and pax", what would the IS map/populace look like in 3172 at that point.

The thought was to do a thought experiment and a mini time jump 20 years in, like they did with Dark Age, just not as long, and get ideas or speculations.

To how the melting pot would look

Just for fun, ehhh?  Let's see how that goes!  lol

Let's say that Alaric's death was sudden - so sudden that he actually didn't have time to fully train a chosen tanaiste IlKhan.  So there's a succession crisis right away - Chance Vickers claims the ilKhanship, yet Anastasia Kerensky as Commanding General of the SLDF comes out of the woodwork to also claim it.

They meet and bid down to a simple star-on-star battle in order to preserve valuable resources.  Anastasia wins, and Chance survives, but loses her right arm and leg.  However, after opting for bionic limbs, she is chosen as the new Commanding General, and on the surface there appears to be no hard feelings.

But Anastasia keeps the details under wraps, and instead has a false news agency/propaganda arm broadcast that the Wolves just underwent the triage of a deadly civil war, and is "trying to keep it a secret, but the NEWS MUST GET OUT!"

Daoshen eats it up and launches a new invasion of Terra after also learning the key to the fortress.  Yet after entering at the pirate point near Terra and landing he finds forces of the Ravens and two galaxies of Bears also on planet, bolstering the Wolves, Falcons, and Jags - who all have been building up through production, as well as purchase from the Sea Foxes.  The Sea Foxes see it as a speculative investment, and look for returns and concessions later with a minimal exchange of resources from the asteroid belt in the meantime.

Daoshen realizes he is in trouble, and this realization is doubled when a Raven Naval Star burns in from the zenith jump point and destroys his transportation assets. Anastasia and Chance both agree that zellbrigen is right out against the Cappies. Through combined arms, massed attacks, and orbital bombardment, the Cappies are destroyed and Daoshen is left dead in the field after having come in person in order to claim the First Lordship of the SL for himself.  He thought he would look so daring and brave doing it and it blew up in his face literally.

Danai survives and is claimed as isorla.  She will eventually become Danai Smoke Jaguar.  Then in a few years she will escape back to the CC, but that's a tale for another time!

This is speculation, and it's just for fun, James Pryde. 

I now hand off the story ball to the next forumite.  May they have fun with it as I did.

[Metallgewitter]

No no no. You know what will happen. Tara Campbell will declare Alaric unfit for rule and declare a Trial of Reaving against him. She will best him in one on one combat and win. After that she will claim the title Ilkhan but rename it instantly to First Lady of the Star LEague and then declare the birth of the real Star League. The Wolves will see she was totally right and fall in line and now she marches with bagpipes in the background rebuilding the Star League

[Church14]

Absolute best case for ilClan? One that jives with consistent in universe logic?

Year 1-2: Wolves beat back the Capellans, but Capellans are dug in in their own worlds too heavily for wolves to dislodge then without leaving Terra at risk. Wolves take 1-2 when Alaric enters the fray personally. Each time he does, the situation on Terra gets worse. Danai tries to cut a deal with the wolves. A ceasefire. Alaric refuses, for he believes he is home sapien apotheosis. He demands Foxes and and Ravens commit to the ilClan. They do, but it costs them and strains the fledging league.

Year 2-3: Alaric declares that he’s GodKing of the universe (see RR for the message.) He tries to to force his way to the empire to demand reinforcements, but FWL and CC have him cut off. The other clans in the faux league question his leadership and their numbers dwindle.

Year three: the so called league is saved when a clanner frags Alaric. His successor stops demanding the wolves be revered on a pedestal and acts like they are first among equals. His successor takes Danai’s offer, but has to retreat from the worlds wolves took. This buys the wolves breathing room to redeploy to punch a hole to the empire. The remnants of the Empire either bring their sibkos, everything in a dash to Terra or just fold and give the Terran wolves everything because they’ve not known abusive wolf leaders. Wolves finally have a meaningful source of new warriors in the short term.

Years 4+: his successor negotiates a real League. Clans around Terra become a unified front. At least as much as clans can be. Ilclan’s first real successes are pushing into the old Falcon OZ until they reach Tamar Pact. His successor compromises with Terrans. Wolves evolve as republic morals and dreams of a peaceful sphere seep into their warrior caste. Some from Terran culture, some from Terran recruits.

Eventually, the wolves push themselves as an arbiter of conflict. A force which can temper the worst of the sphere. They know they don’t have the strength to conquer the sphere, but leading it could be possible.


Sometime during this, the nuJags died. Nobody cared.

[Geg]

Unless Alaric wishes to abandon Terra (the great prize) I doubt he could muster the forces to take out the Hells Horses.

Immediately.  Absolutely.

However, most factions in the setting can fully recover their military capabilities within 10 years.   Plenty of time for the ilKhan to consolidate around Terra before fighting the wolves.   I am saying ilKhan, because I don't really think Alaric is going to make it out of the initial consolidation period around Terra.   I give him 50/50 on making it through IKEO.

[Geg]

And why would Alaric get a break over five years? He has CC possibly constantly sniping at any excursions, DC may start something, FWL might even reach Terra. Horses may arrive. Shoot, the corpse of the RotS may lash out a few times as well. I don’t see Terra having a moment to breathe.

My read is the exact opposite.  Literally everybody else is going to be too busy with their own shit to worry about what's happening around Terra.

Honest question: why should the ilclan be able to challenge the houses in bare years? Why give them that plot armor?

Challenge the houses 3rd Succession War style....  or 4th?  After the FWLvEmpire and the CapCon things play out, my money is on the ilClan being more concerned about fighting wars against dissident Clans, and limiting its House focus to raiding and challenges.   

So what makes you think the ilClan era ends with a happy, successful ilClan?

Comments from TPTB are talking about limiting the Sphere wide conflicts that require great resets, and instead working towards a series of smaller regional disputes that resolve at different times, so there is always something happening, but there is enough downtime for factions to rebuild and characters to change etc etc.  There is a good chance that the ilClan Era will last for several in game decades like the Republic Eras, and the Late Succession War, rather than being restricted to a single conflict.

Again my money is on this Era Lasting for more than 20 in game years, and probably a decade of real world time.

[ShroudedSciuridae]

I always come back to this blurb from TRO:DA:
"Conversely, the effects of the Blackout did not magically disappear with the rise of the ilClan, and lingered until several years after the Last Annihilation."

We know the HPGs are coming back up around 3151, we've seen hints of it and Ray straight up said so in one of the AMAs. So it's coming Soon™ but not before we get this Last Annihilation. Which in theory puts that somewhere within the 3151-3171 timeframe. My pet theory as to what it is also explains why the only Bloodnames we've seen in 3250 are the Jade Falcon ones.

Alaric's perfidy is discovered. Perhaps with his genes, but I think with the conduct of the Trial against the Falcons. He bid all Wolf forces against Malvina, which covered the Empire and the Exiles.  But not the Dragoons, and for one very simple reason.  He paid them.  He paid them with an insulting thirty pieces of silver, but he paid them. If his victory is declared void, then the only contender to the claim of ilClan are the Jade Falcons, and they're currently serving as his bodyguards.  Ask Hohiro Kurita how well having an adversary serving as your bodyguard works out. So the Wolves get Annihilated, the Falcons become ilClan. Wars still abound, but maybe the other Clans are a little more unified now.  After all, Nicholas Kerensky was right that the Clans needed an enemy to unite behind.

[Geg]

I still believe that the "Last Annihilation" is going to be the ilClan War against the Horses.   Trials of Annihilation have previously been seen as attempts to destroy a rival clan.  I see the "Last" one as targeted against the one Clan that didn't come to terms with the ilKhan on Terra.

I think it's Alaric's blood heritage that is going to be the thing that get's him in trouble.   The 30 pieces of silver isn't even a rounding error in the value of the equipment that the Dragoons pulled off Terra.  The Silver was a blood ribbon for treason.   After Alaric goes down, there is probably going to be a quick Trial/Civil thing between the Terran's, Wolves, and Falcons to sort out the who's in charge, but there are a lot of ways that could go down.

Ray has also stated that people were reading way to much into the Falcon/Blackwatch thing.

[BrianDavion]

I'd not read too much into anything from the TRO intro's. that stuffs potentially a century off after all

[Metallgewitter]

The thing about the 30 pieces of silver though is that the IlClan hired mercenaries and by paying them proofed that they were mercenaries not "Clan warriors" Unlike the RAF that were bonded and then adopted the Dragoons were never part of the Wolves during the trial. And Rites of Redemption has at least a hint on how some Clanners think about them actually hiring mercenaries. And let's not forget: the Dragoons did send some of alaric's spawn to the other remaining Clans. So if Alaric dies another Clan could in theory push a claim on said throne. Heck I can also imagine alaric sending out snatch teams to secure his own spawn just to make sure his secret never gets out.

In terms of fighting though: we have hints that the Capellans have begun to encircle Terra as best they can. And some of those former Republic planets have quite the industrial output (New Earth being the most promising) Heck if they manage to capture Devil's Rock they might get their hands on the Rhodes Workshop (unless the Wolves manage to blow them up) with all those advanced weaponry and research data. Anyway this would also mean that any supply convoy from the crumbling Empire would have to travel to hostile space. Not exactly encouraging for a new war. Almost like how Amaris felt when the SLDF decided to conquer his old home nation instead of gunning for Terra immediately

[Church14]

My read is the exact opposite.  Literally everybody else is going to be too busy with their own shit to worry about what's happening around Terra.

Challenge the houses 3rd Succession War style....  or 4th?  After the FWLvEmpire and the CapCon things play out, my money is on the ilClan being more concerned about fighting wars against dissident Clans, and limiting its House focus to raiding and challenges.   

Comments from TPTB are talking about limiting the Sphere wide conflicts that require great resets, and instead working towards a series of smaller regional disputes that resolve at different times, so there is always something happening, but there is enough downtime for factions to rebuild and characters to change etc etc.  There is a good chance that the ilClan Era will last for several in game decades like the Republic Eras, and the Late Succession War, rather than being restricted to a single conflict.

Again my money is on this Era Lasting for more than 20 in game years, and probably a decade of real world time.

I actually agree with most of this. Some of my comments you quoted were just to challenge some blatantly wishful assumption.

Wolves main threats will be CC and FWL, with DC more just defending deiron if wolves attack. Losing Terra won’t be a thing, but I also don’t see wolves expanding too far beyond it. FWL and CC are still more than enough to stretch one planet’s capacity thin though.

I think Alaric is going to try for 4SW and achieve 3SW. His broadcast at the end of Redemption Rites tells me he isn’t settling for owning a tiny bit of the sphere. Before that, the last major border shift should be the collapse of the Wolf Empire to work through. They absolutely shouldn’t survive with most of their realm intact. They don’t have enough of anything to prevent it.

My guess is ilClan era will be a few in game decades as well, with a slow churn towards a new stability. That doesn’t necessarily mean the ilclan will die at the end of the era. Just that at some point it’ll no longer be the defining thing of an era.

[Minemech]

 Why does there appear to be a consensus that the other states do not see a Clan occupied Terra as Wolf Empire? That is a very poor assumption.

[Church14]

I still believe that the "Last Annihilation" is going to be the ilClan War against the Horses.   Trials of Annihilation have previously been seen as attempts to destroy a rival clan.  I see the "Last" one as targeted against the one Clan that didn't come to terms with the ilKhan on Terra.

This one I don’t agree with. For in an out of universe reasons. And certainly not for a very long time in universe if ever.

In universe, Horses are currently stronger than the combined ilclan forces. By a significant margin. They were at 40 clusters in FM3145 and have suffered no major losses since. Devs said wolves are the second weakest clan right now. That puts them between 15 and 30 clusters. Best I can figure out, it’s around 25. Add in a cluster of pet falcons, and two clusters of the nuJags. If ravens are actually committed and they brought alpha galaxy with ice storm star, that’s another 4 clusters.

In universe, Horses also sit on a larger population base to sustain their military. They lack any real threats, are a long way from Terra, and have sibkos to reinforce losses (ilclan does not).

Out of universe, Tamar pact was just formed. Devs aren’t gonna kill in in three years. So who gets kicked to forge the path between horses and wolves? Do we kick the lyrans even more or go through the RasDom. 

Out of universe, devs are finally giving horses attention. Tamar Rising was supposedly a start of degoobering the horses. They also got Elements of Treason: Honor. Why bother with giving the horses their first protags in over a real life decade if they are to die?


But, Brian is also right. We really should ignore the 3250 blurbs. They offer nothing of use to the current timeline save trying to make it look like wolves win forever while not saying it explicitly. It’s either crap writing or a giant misdirection.

[Church14]

Why does there appear to be a consensus that the other states do not see a Clan occupied Terra as Wolf Empire? That is a very poor assumption.

We know that Alaric has sent nothing of substance to the Empire for 18 months after he stripped it of all “useful” military resources, at least one production line, and who knows what else. Not even basic updates directly to anyone in the Empire. It’s possible that he “cannot” get a message to the Empire, but it’s incredibly unlikely given he can speak with the Foxes and ask for them to send it.

Alaric also helped develop the original plan to form the Empire, which involved abandoning nearly all of clan wolf’s civilians and all their territory while stripping it bare of resources. Since he’s done it once and it worked beautifully for him because of DA wolf plot armor, it feels like it’s reasonable that he did it twice.

Then we have Redemption Rites, which ends with Othar telling the head of his Keshik that Alaric abandoned the Empire for a throne elsewhere.

[Minemech]

Tamar Rising was supposedly a start of degoobering the horses. They also got Elements of Treason: Honor. Why bother with giving the horses their first protags in over a real life decade if they are to die?

Tragically there is a franchise running tradition of allowing any faction with Wolf in its name to stomp on things that might otherwise be interesting.

[Minemech]

We know that Alaric has sent nothing of substance to the Empire for 18 months after he stripped it of all “useful” military resources, at least one production line, and who knows what else. Not even basic updates directly to anyone in the Empire. It’s possible that he “cannot” get a message to the Empire, but it’s incredibly unlikely given he can speak with the Foxes and ask for them to send it.

Alaric also helped develop the original plan to form the Empire, which involved abandoning nearly all of clan wolf’s civilians and all their territory while stripping it bare of resources. Since he’s done it once and it worked beautifully for him because of DA wolf plot armor, it feels like it’s reasonable that he did it twice.

Then we have Redemption Rites, which ends with Othar telling the head of his Keshik that Alaric abandoned the Empire for a throne elsewhere.

The thing is that has nothing to do with how the other states view Terra's position. Yori would in fact be quite willing to send aid to the Confederation if it meant less to deal with on her Terran Front. The campaign for Terra would be shorter than any war the Dominion would raise against the Combine and pay off. The aerospace assets the Combine chose not to deploy against the Suns remain useable.

[Minemech]

Then we have Redemption Rites, which ends with Othar telling the head of his Keshik that Alaric abandoned the Empire for a throne elsewhere.

I think that Othar has potential as a character.