The AFFS's massive expansion of the military industrial complex is slowing. There are less new factories and lines being built - and most of what is now being considered for expansion is for specific purposes rather than a general "expand everything". They will continue to expand their warship production, if only because they want to keep their edge and they have 100s of systems to patrol and longer borders now.
You are right on the civilian jumpships. Those have already been expanded on and they will continue to receive priority for continued expansion. Hence the new merchant jumpship yard at June and another massive shipyard building jumpships (and warships) at Filtvelt. Expect more.
Yup, while the AFFS is buying a LOT more ships like Monoliths and Star Lords - for instance Develan is now producing Star Lords, Tramps and Monoliths mostly for the AFFS, the number of shipyards producing Merchants and Invaders for the civilian market is increasing as is production at the existing shipyards. Filtvelt's shipyards have been producing Merchants for the last 7 years at this stage. A new shipyard is in the works for St Ives, again to build civilian jumpships and the FS now owns the Capella shipyards producing Merchants, Invaders and Monoliths.
On the economics, mind you Battletech's "scarcity future" places some limits on economic expansion versus what the real world can do, but it works in over simplistic terms like this.
Let's say that you have a 10 ship fleet (could be a 10 ship navy or a 10 ship merchant fleet for some 31st century transport company). In order to have a successful fleet ie a functional fleet that you can maintain and repair, refit and replace and so on, you have to have an economy that can support that ie:
- have the slips
- have all the factories from all the different companies that produce the premanfactured shops
- have all the companies mining the natural resources
- have all the materials companies making the unnatural, synthetic materials needed
- have the companies that produce the tools needed
- have the educational resources that produce the human skills needed
- have the educational resources that pass on the experience in terms of worker generation
- have the necessary govermental QA authorities
- plus more stuff
If you have that for 10 vessel fleet, under freemarket economic concepts its very easy for your currency source (whether its House Davion in this fic or say the US Federal Reserve in our real world US and so on) to create some currency debt to produce an 11th vessel, slip it into the system via the banks and direct it to an 11th vessel via regulatory action and contract. We are talking about like less than half a percentage point, way less in terms of currency needed out of the total currency in circulation. This allows all those things up there to be expanded for an 11th ship.
However, if you want a 15 ship, fleet, creating that much debt to increase currency and therefore build the vessels, crew them etc, literally destabilizes your economy due to the inflationary pressure. So you build the 11th ship and let the economy slowly expand...and then you build a 12th and so on..but once you get say up into the 15 plus ship area, if you want to keep expanding, your economy has grown enough that you might be able to introduce enough debt to do 2 ships.
Victor has gotten to the point where he has an economy that supports this large navy. Plus supports his large and growing merchant fleets. So he does not need to go crazy to keep it trickle expanding.
Don't over think it though. Its important in a story like this not to bog it down with explaining everything.