Ok. This is what I got from putting together the various text blurbs from Shattered Fortress, Era Digest: 3145, Rock of the Republic, etcetera.
Devlin Stone, as we all know, plans for EVERYTHING. He is a control freak of the HIGHEST nature. (For example, when they inform him that the Fidelis have been released. "THEY WERE MINE!"). He had a plan for the inner sphere that "I will fight no more forever." But he couldn't stand not being there when it happened, as he believes that only he can pull it off.
What we know:
Devlin Stone Created the Blackout Protocol (Clarion Call) before he was put on ice.
Devlin Stone did not actually ACTIVATE Clarion Call, as he was on ice.
He wasn't expecting it to happen so soon. (His reaction when being woken up for the first time "TOO SOON!"). Also, he was surprised by how quickly the Houses rearmed, and that the HPG networks were down when woken up. He asks Harwell "where are my live feeds of the prefecture governor's offices"
It is very likely that Clarion Call was set to go off when certain conditions were met (and would wake up Stone at that time so he could see what happens). For example "Once House military levels have been at peace for X years and reduced their forces to X amount")
So, the problem is that someone (Mr. X, I will assume Word of Blake for the purpose of discussion here) discovered those plans, and realized that yeah, this plan really could work. And if done NOW, instead of "when the stars are right", that the Republic would suffer along with the other Houses. So, they launched some of their Hidden Forces at the HPG's that Clarion Call could not take out.
So, a defrosted Stone is trying to project like "The plan is fine, we're going to stop them at Terra and then recover all the worlds we lost, and then some!".. because well, that's all he really has left to play. But he keeps running the numbers, and they just can't. They could defeat Clan Wolf. Or Clan Jade Falcon. Or the Capellan Confederation. Or the Draconis Combine. They MIGHT stop two of the four. MAYBE. They CAN'T stop all four. So, he has to try to reduce the amount of fronts he's facing. By giving Julian Davion a relatively small amount of forces, it A) distracts the Combine, which was actively trying to breach the Fortress, and B) Davion might feel obliged to send forces to help. It seems to be working, as the Dragon's tounge is being Chopped into pieces, and it's safe to say that the Dragon is.. distracted.
The Capellans are being held at Northwind, which keeps them from being a contender for Terra, right now at least. But they're still going to be coming, eventually. So that's only a partial win.
So, the two immediate threats are the two major Clans. Wolf and Jade Falcon. And Stone has pretty much admitted that the Republic, in its current form, is dead. Deader then disco. Deader then Hanse Davion. Maybe more dead then Sun Tzu Liao (wouldn't be surprised if Sunny Tzu put himself on ice ala Stone)
Stone (to Harwell): You don’t see it because you’ve been approaching the problem from the wrong direction. You believe we’ve been trying to preserve the Republic all this time? What if I told you the Republic can’t be restored to what it was? What if I told you that the best way forward might be to forge the Republic into something new and different?
Does anyone think that Stone can make a deal with the Jade Falcons? (you may laugh here, if you wish. I did)
Does anyone think that if Devlin Stone goes to Alaric Ward and says: "Rather then the two of us warring and Jade Falcon taking out the winner, how about this. You and me fight. If I win, the Wolf Clan becomes the Republic Defense Force. As part of the Republic, Clan Wolf is the ilClan, and can rally the less insane members of the Clans to accept. If you win, mostly the same, except that the Star League/Republic Defense Force has supreme military command over the Inner Sphere", that Alaric wouldn't accept?
The numbers game weighs heavily on Alaric's mind. Which means that he's desperately trying to get more forces. Such as Wolf's Dragoons. Such as the remnants of Wolf-In-Exile. (would that be where Anastasia Kerensky is going?). Such as the Kell Hounds? (Garner Kerensky returned in Divided We Fall from such a mission). Such as the Fidelis.
Now, let's say we add in the Davion/Republic armies. That's... a pretty impressive coalition. Not enough to steamroll the Jade Falcons on Earth. But enough to HOLD? Enough to send them fleeing (which just reinforces Clan Wolf, Kerensky's Legacy, as the ilClan).
All of which could conceivably lead to the situation described in the future of the TRO:Succession Wars Prologue, where they write to the IlKhan:
That moreover, the re-employment of these older BattleMechs in the arena system has helped quell the inherent hostility and intransigence of the freebirth masses of the Inner Sphere. The enormous change they have experienced has been eased both by these gladiatorial contests and by the sight of familiar ’Mechs competing in them. Such machines also provide an effective baseline for the evaluation of potential MechWarriors in the contests, given the [rohibition against the use of modern technology by the faux warriors. Finally, the familiarity of these ’Mechs provides a bridge for Spheroid citizens between the past and the present. One wonders, for example, whether the feats of Gunslinger Jázon Marik became so legendary across the Inner Sphere in part because they came at the controls of a Thunderbolt.
In this way, these ancient BattleMechs have come full circle. Once, they were used to tear down the First League and carry out some of the worst atrocities ever committed by mankind. Now, they tie us to the glories of the past while achieving new triumphs in the League’s name, and help vent the ancient animosities of the Inner Sphere. Rather than view this document as evidence of the barbarism of those you now rule, perhaps consider it an epitaph of that barbarism.
In short, that the Clans and Inner Sphere have merged by 3250, and that while trueborn Mechwarriors still make up a lot of the SLDF Mechwarriors, that the gladiatorial games (like the old Gunslinger duels between the SLDF and the Draconis Combine Ronin pre-first star league fall), provide satiation for nation's grudges, while testing out MechWarriors for the SLDF . Clan Wolf has already started that, with Solaris acting as a feeder system to the Clan Wolf Touman. Jade Falcon would NOT want anything like that. Ever. So, it's likely that Wolf wins in some way, but how do we get from point A to Point B? I tried to map that out.
This probably comes off as one of those conspiracy theory bulletin boards, but I think I'm pretty solid in my guesses.
(And hoo boy, if the Steiner-Davion line ends up taking over the Inner Sphere under Alaric, the cries will be FIERCE)
