Operation CELESTIAL VENGEANCE: 7th October 3068 to January 3070 (formal ceasefire April 3070)
Operation CELESTIAL VENGEANCE (aka Thunderstrike) was the Capellan counterattack launched against the invading AFFS and carried over into FedSuns space. Jihad Secrets: The Blake Documents covers the combat in detail. This was basically a 16 month stretch of fighting, or 19 months if you include the minor skirmishes up until the official ceasefire. It consisted of five main waves using the bulk of the CCAF. The fighting lasted over four times as long as SOVEREIGN JUSTICE which I think is in part testament to the defensive skills of the AFFS, and possibly to mistakes caused by the recklessness of the counterattacking CCAF. The counterattack was indeed reckless, sometimes at a tactical level but especially at the strategic level, as we shall see later.
The single key turning point in this war came just before CELESTIAL VENGEANCE launched. This turning point was the orbital bombardment of Sian on 7th October which destroyed the Forbidden City, killing Mandrissa Candace Liao and (or so was thought at the time) Chancellor Sun Tzu Liao. The attack was blamed on Davion warships. The effect of this on Capellan soldiers and citizens must not be underestimated: for them this was like the assassination of JFK, the WTC attacks and Pearl Harbor all rolled into one. Capellan state media further whipped up the outrage by covering the event using the most inflamatory language they could muster. The Capellan military became fanatical, and unrest on the worlds conquered by the AFFS increased dramatically, including on St Ives worlds. Some pro-independence St Ives forces (most notably the Blackwind Lancers) even changed sides to support the CCAF in the wake of Candace Liao's death. The Free Capella movement was officially disbanded two years later as a direct result.
As an aside, it's a curious fact about humanity that even in repressive regimes with clunking, corrupt bureaucracies, you will still find that many citizens can be intensely patriotic. We need look no further than the old USSR for a sterling example. The CapCon is no different. Citizens dislike the Maskirova, are cynical about state news channels, resent the nobles and their corruption, grind their teeth over protection rackets and arbitrary emergency taxes... but huge numbers of Capellans still have loyalty to the Confederation itself. They idolize it as a concept even if the reality is grim. To them, some of the people in charge might be corrupt and fallible but that's not the fault of the Confederation itself, because the Confederation is good. Being Capellan is part of their identity, it's their tribe, the motherland. This can often go hand in hand with xenophobia (it certainly does in the CapCon) and repressive governments take advantage of this because it's a good way to keep people more or less loyal even when they don't like what you're doing. So life in the CapCon might be consistently tough and occasionally brutal, but the majority of citizens will still support their Great House, especially against outsiders. If those outsiders also liberally used WMDs against your ancestors only a couple of centuries ago, well that's all the more reason to hate them. Is this a smart life philosophy? Well no, probably not. But lots of people do see things that way, and that's what matters. This is why the oppressed Capellan people genuinely reacted so strongly to the attack on Sian.
So back to CELESTIAL VENGEANCE. Given the swiftness with which the Capellan counterattacks were launched by Talon Zahn after the orbital strikes on Sian, it must be the case that the units involved were in position beforehand. This makes the timing of the orbital bombardment suspiciously convenient to say the least. I think nearly everyone reading this already believes Sun Tzu ordered the bombardment himself and then retreated to a safe bunker, and I'm right with you. It bears all his hallmarks: a ruthless, resourceful and unconventional strategy.
Waves One, Two and Three together lasted about 9 months and were mostly focussed on retaking worlds captured by the AFFS. Driven by fanatical fury the CCAF units were willing to suffer huge losses in the pursuit of victory. Several regiments on both sides were completely destroyed. The CCAF weren't fussy about collateral damage to the people they were supposed to be liberating either. Brutal street-fighting was commonplace.
Wave Four continued the drive into FedSuns space that started in the last wave, and Wave Five largely consisted of the intense fighting on New Syrtis, Duke Hasek's seat of power. These last two waves differ from Hasek's invasion in that the Capellan strategy was more like a sustained, large-scale deep raid than an invasion intended to expand the Confederation's borders. The fighting in Davion space lasted around 10 months up to the ceasefire. The Capellans fought dirty, including deliberately attacking civilian targets and using orbital bombardments. The Black Lancers used nuclear weapons on Talon to wipe out two cities along with the AFFS defenders and two million FedSuns civilians (the Lancers' commander Walter Doles was a rather unhinged admirer of Candace Liao, and clearly took her death hard. His article in this forum is well worth reading.).
CELESTIAL VENGEANCE came to an end when Chancellor Sun Tzu Liao "miraculously" appeared alive and well in January 3070, apparently pulled from the ruins of the Forbidden City and sustained by the overwhelming wholesome power of Xin Sheng, if you believe Capellan propaganda. The reality is likely more prosaic, involving hidden bunkers with only a few trusted people in the loop (who were probably killed off later just to be sure the secret was safe). Sun Tzu called for a general withdrawal and ceasefire. The fighting actually carried on until April 3070, with AFFS forces hotly pursuing the withdrawing Capellans. Hasek himself was assassinated on March 19th of that year, supposedly by Blakist agents.
Let's take a look at how the CCAF was able to turn the tables on the AFFS. The vengeful fanatacism and ruthless tactics of the CCAF were crucial in giving impetus to their counterattacks, but there were some other factors as well:
- The FedSuns were already somewhat stretched by earlier CCAF harrying attacks when Wave One of CELESTIAL VENGEANCE hit them.
- The Capellans used unexpectedly strong forces, funnelling most of their best units into the counterattack task forces.
- The WoB 'White Out' disruption of HPGs occurred midway through the Capellan counterattack; HPG blackouts nearly always favour the attacker and make coordinating multi-system defenses very difficult
- Civil unrest after the orbital strikes on Sian was making conquered planets ungovernable for the AFFS
- When the Word of Blake unexpectedly took Kittery, the FedSuns supply issues suddenly got a lot worse and caused several regiments to withdraw for logistical reasons
- The FedSuns as a whole was pressured on other fronts and couldn't divert forces to the Capellan March for a crushing counterattack.
- Unlike Hasek's land-grab invasion, the Capellan counteroffensive inside FedSuns space was more like a series of deep raids with New Syrtis as an end point, rather similar to the Jade Falcons' Coventry campaign in 3058. While CELESTIAL VENGEANCE did push fairly deep into the Capellan March, many of the FedSuns systems on the way were raided and then soon abandoned or else bypassed entirely.