You know its not like rapid fire MGs, they do not have to be on that setting the whole time?
Doesn't matter, the average expected damage over the long run will drop the moment you decide to rapid-fire for a possibility of a bonus. When we're talking about who will win most of the time, taking a big risk on long-term damage output for a small chance to modestly improve your position if you both hit and succeed in the cluster roll is a losing proposition over the long term of hundreds of duels (which is essentially what is being asked). If the CTF-2X jams (or
explodes)its AC10 before the match is in the bag, it's a wash.
The only way around that is if you knew ahead of time and consistently only rapid-fired at the end of the game so you're not affected by the long-term average drop. But then the game's basically decided, so rapid-fire is not really helping you out.
One way to look at it is: Say we do 101 1v1 Cataphract vs Thunderbolt fights. Since the Cataphract player wants the benefit of the rapid-fire rules but doesn't want to risk too much, he only rapid-fires the AC10
once in the beginning at a to-hit of 10 (1-in-6 chances to hit). Compared to a Cataphract player that just doesn't rapid-fire, on average over 101 battles...
- 67 of them, he misses and accomplishes nothing except add a bit extra heat and lost a bit more ammo than if he had just single-fired.
- 10 of them, he hits but fails to connect with the 2nd shot, so all he accomplished was add a bit extra heat and lost a bit more ammo than if he had just single-fired.
- 7 of them, he actually hits with the 2nd shot. He effectively has 1 extra 10-point slug advantage over the Cataphract that just single-fires the autocannon.
- 14 of them, the rapid-firing AC jams. The rapid-firing Cataphract now has a huge disadvantage against the Thunderbolt, as it just lost its biggest gun. The single-firing Cataphract merely missed.
- 3 of them, the bloody thing explodes. The rapid-firing CTF-2X, you might as well call it for the Thunderbolt. The single-firing Cataphract? Merely missed.
That's 77 games where the CTF-2X that rapid-fires once puts itself in no better situation than the CTF-2X that only single fires. (or worse, depending on how much you value that heat and extra ammo.)
That's 7 games where the CTF-2X that rapid-fires puts itself into a slightly-to-moderately better situation than the CTF-2X that only single fires. Seven.
That's 17 games where the CTF-2X that rapid-fires puts itself into a significantly or hilariously worse situation than the CTF-2X that only single fires.
The bad results of rapid-firing in this case outnumber the good results more than 2-to-1, and the benefits of when it does work out are not nearly as good as the penalty is bad when it backfires. And that's without pressing your luck by rapid-firing multiple times.
Another way to look at it is: Say we're talking about 100 Cataphracts vs 100 Thunderbolts at the same time instead of just 1v1 duels. How frequently and with how many 'Mechs are you willing to rapid-fire their ACs, taking into account doing so risks a 1-in-6 chance of either a jam or an explosion?
(Oh, and I ran the numbers a while ago in a bit more detail. Rapid-fire ACs have a rather terrible effect on average damage in the long run. I'd rather not, but I can dig them back up if you're interested.)