ilClan speculations and ideas 20 years in ?

[BrianDavion]

But, Brian is also right. We really should ignore the 3250 blurbs. They offer nothing of use to the current timeline save trying to make it look like wolves win forever while not saying it explicitly. It’s either crap writing or a giant misdirection.

More importantly, 3250 is simply too far out, barring a major time jump (which reportedly was initally a part of the plan) it'll simply take too long to get there.

the current date in battletech is 3152.

the starting date for battletech in 1984 was 3025. that means in 40 years the timeline has moved about a century, and that was with 2 time jumps. meaning on average battle battletech's timeline moves at a pace of 2 years for every year of real time. Obiviously this includes 2 time jumps the 20 year timejump and the dark age time jump, both of which where differant intervels.given the devs have said no time jump is immintant, that means the 3250 stuff is simply not relevant as chances are we'll have differant creatives in charge if battletech ever reaches that year

The thing is that has nothing to do with how the other states view Terra's position. Yori would in fact be quite willing to send aid to the Confederation if it meant less to deal with on her Terran Front. The campaign for Terra would be shorter than any war the Dominion would raise against the Combine and pay off. The aerospace assets the Combine chose not to deploy against the Suns remain useable.

you mean the aerospace assets that might be the Dracs only feesiable answer to a Levi III showing up in Luthien orbit? those Aerospace Assets?

The Dracs right now are beset on both sides, they don't have forces to throw at a Capellan vanity project like attacking Terra.

Even *IF* the Kuritians where of a mind to spend their precious resources to allow Daoshen to take the homeworld of humanity for himself. There's little to gain, but much potentially to lose

[Minemech]

There's little to gain, but much potentially to lose

The Combine's interest is to annihilate a Clan that is known for extremely erratic behavior. Furthermore, that is known for crushing the military efforts of 2 Successor States, the Republic Armed Forces and another Clan.  They might be a bit up there on the threat list.

[Minemech]

Name a faction that one of the half-dozen variations of Clan Wolf has not walked all over.

I'm not going to hold my breath for an answer.

This reputation in the writing has simply gotten only more nauseating.

[Jazzhands Licker]

The Combine's interest is to annihilate a Clan that is known for extremely erratic behavior. Furthermore, that is known for crushing the military efforts of 2 Successor States,, the Republic Armed Forces and another Clan.  They might be a bit up there on the threat list.

What I say is born out of ignorance, so please take it as the question it is.  Wasn't the Dominion about to launch an attack on Draconis space in kind of a way to stave off their mini-civil war?  If I read that correctly, that might be why they won't be going after the Wolves just yet.

I'm kinda new to this whole era.  I came in at Dark Age and am now, after twenty years, going back and reading the 4SW and Clan Invasion stuff... to make sense of all the factions I was introduced to in Dark Age.

[Minemech]

What I say is born out of ignorance, so please take it as the question it is.  Wasn't the Dominion about to launch an attack on Draconis space in kind of a way to stave off their mini-civil war?  If I read that correctly, that might be why they won't be going after the Wolves just yet.

I'm kinda new to this whole era.  I came in at Dark Age and am now, after twenty years, going back and reading the 4SW and Clan Invasion stuff... to make sense of all the factions I was introduced to in Dark Age.

Yes, but Successor States build their militaries around multi-front wars in addition to employing defense in depth. Taking a strategic target is their form of forward defense.

[Church14]

The thing is that has nothing to do with how the other states view Terra's position. Yori would in fact be quite willing to send aid to the Confederation if it meant less to deal with on her Terran Front. The campaign for Terra would be shorter than any war the Dominion would raise against the Combine and pay off. The aerospace assets the Combine chose not to deploy against the Suns remain useable.

Oh. Oops. I read that as out of universe. In universe, they would be viewed as the same basic faction, just cut off from one another. At least until Othar publicly breaks with Alaric.

[Geg]

This one I don’t agree with. For in an out of universe reasons. And certainly not for a very long time in universe if ever.

In universe, Horses are currently stronger than the combined ilclan forces. By a significant margin. They were at 40 clusters in FM3145 and have suffered no major losses since. Devs said wolves are the second weakest clan right now. That puts them between 15 and 30 clusters. Best I can figure out, it’s around 25. Add in a cluster of pet falcons, and two clusters of the nuJags. If ravens are actually committed and they brought alpha galaxy with ice storm star, that’s another 4 clusters.

In universe, Horses also sit on a larger population base to sustain their military. They lack any real threats, are a long way from Terra, and have sibkos to reinforce losses (ilclan does not).

Out of universe, Tamar pact was just formed. Devs aren’t gonna kill in in three years. So who gets kicked to forge the path between horses and wolves? Do we kick the lyrans even more or go through the RasDom. 

Out of universe, devs are finally giving horses attention. Tamar Rising was supposedly a start of degoobering the horses. They also got Elements of Treason: Honor. Why bother with giving the horses their first protags in over a real life decade if they are to die?


But, Brian is also right. We really should ignore the 3250 blurbs. They offer nothing of use to the current timeline save trying to make it look like wolves win forever while not saying it explicitly. It’s either crap writing or a giant misdirection.

Points against the Horses, is that Elements of Treason has them currently very divided politically, and the book repeatedly states that Horses have done a terrible job at integrating with their OZ, and the Horse OZ has just effectively doubled in size spreading out their 40 clusters. Points on the ilClan side, is that they might be able to mobilize some exRAF maybe some token Sea Foxes and Bears.  Strategically, the ilClan has fully concentrated their military and transportation assets, so it will be easier for them to achieve local superiority against the Horses who will need to concentrate.

I too agree that Tamar is probably going to be around for the long haul, but there are enough ways to square that circle, including Tamar just out and out joining the 3rd League, or having the bogged down Bears participate in a logistical capacity

Why bother with giving the horses their first protags in over a real life decade if they are to die?

Operation Ice Storm says hello?   

Not to mention that the Clans are a bit sloppy with their Absorption and Annihilation Trailing procedures.   We could be looking at some sort of "Jade Horse" style interim period, while the Horses get forced into the 3rd League.

More Generally,

From what we know of the Final Annihilation, it sounds like it is at the beginning of the ilClan Era.   When it was originally introduced in the TRO:DA, I had thought it was going to be targeted against Alaric, but then why would a it be the "Final" Annihilation vs just a precedent for the fate of bad ilKhans.  Something about the ilClan Era makes this Annihilation Final.   If it's the Horses, the reason it's final, is because all other Clan have accepted the authority of the ilKhan and as such never be totally Annihilated.   This also makes it safe for the Nova Cats to come back, bend the knee, and not all be killed on sight.

[Church14]

This reputation in the writing is simply gotten only more nauseating.

Oddly, the only answer I can think for a faction that the wolves have bordered in the sphere and didn’t walk over, is the Horses.

But I might be forgetting some jihad stuff. Dunno

[Church14]

Points on the ilClan side, is that they might be able to mobilize some exRAF maybe some token Sea Foxes and Bears.  Strategically, the ilClan has fully concentrated their military and transportation assets, so it will be easier for them to achieve local superiority against the Horses who will need to concentrate.

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From what we know of the Final Annihilation, it sounds like it is at the beginning of the ilClan Era.   When it was originally introduced in the TRO:DA, I had thought it was going to be targeted against Alaric, but then why would a it be the "Final" Annihilation vs just a precedent for the fate of bad ilKhans.  Something about the ilClan Era makes this Annihilation Final.   If it's the Horses, the reason it's final, is because all other Clan have accepted the authority of the ilKhan and as such never be totally Annihilated.   This also makes it safe for the Nova Cats to come back, bend the knee, and not all be killed on sight.

Ilclan isn’t getting the Bears. RasDom isn’t warm to them anymore. The short, victorious war with the combine coming up is to gin up more support, but we have every reason to expect it to backfire.

exRAF is likely a dry well. One of the things considered too unbelievable and stupid for HotW that got cut was the surrendered RAF eagerly joining the Wolves.

Foxes are severely spread out. It’s hard for them to bring more than about five clusters to bear anywhere in the sphere.



The final annihilation could simply be the Nova Cats. But I’d bet the plot armored Terran wolves getting annihilated before the horses. It makes more sense in universe.

[Geg]

exRAF is likely a dry well. One of the things considered too unbelievable and stupid for HotW that got cut was the surrendered RAF eagerly joining the Wolves.

Ray had mentioned in one of the podcasts that the Citizens are Terra are absolutely going to get a say in how the ilClan shapes out.    We don't know what that means, but we have seen an ExArch in the 3250 blurbs, and given the warrior emphasis of Clan culture, I wouldn't count this out yet.

Foxes are severely spread out. It’s hard for them to bring more than about five clusters to bear anywhere in the sphere.

The Foxes have a working HPG on Sudeten(or another Falcon OZ world).   There assistance against the Horses can be more than just Clusters.

The final annihilation could simply be the Nova Cats.

I know this was sort of a throw away comment, but it's probably not the Cats, in the same way it's probably not the nuJags or Tamar, or the Kell Hounds.   Why bring something back just to kill it immediately.   I don't feel like there are a ton of things currently on the board that makes sense to Annihilate in the short term beyond the Horses or Alaric.  Saying it's the Horses exists in the...  Well if I had to guess, land.

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

...They are furthermore forced to confront the reality that Nicholas Kerensky was a very poor leader, plausibly after the Wolves release his real biography and histories during a dispute...

By which metric was Nicolas Kerensky a poor leader?

Number on the scoreboard says he aced it

...
as well as their own learning of the real history of the Star League.....

Everyone knows history of the Star League, it's interpretation which differs

One faction's unforgivable atrocity is another one's understandable misstep

...Furthermore, that is known for crushing the military efforts of 2 Successor States, the Republic Armed Forces and another Clan....

Euthanizing your disobedient pet hardly qualifies as crushing

[VensersRevenge]

Out of universe, Tamar pact was just formed. Devs aren’t gonna kill in in three years. So who gets kicked to forge the path between horses and wolves? Do we kick the lyrans even more or go through the RasDom. 

I mean, is this even a question? Of course the answer will be kick the Lyrans some more.

[BrianDavion]

I mean, is this even a question? Of course the answer will be kick the Lyrans some more.

It is waaaaay past time for the fedcom powers to stop karmicly paying for the 4th sucession war

[Metallgewitter]

Oddly, the only answer I can think for a faction that the wolves have bordered in the sphere and didn’t walk over, is the Horses.

But I might be forgetting some jihad stuff. Dunno

I was gonna say the Horses are so far one of those factions that can actually claim to give the Wolves a curbstomping when they invaded the Wolf OZ during the Jihad and even claimed a Wolf Khan's life right after the Jihad.
Add to that the Horses currently have a ristar called Cobb going through the ranks. guess who was the Khan who gave the Wolves a trashing? Right, someone named Cobb.

Though I suspect that the Horses might make a move either against the Bears as Rasalhague is within spitting distance to their own OZ or against other Lyran fiefs as they will probably give Jiyi's Falon remnant a wide bearth for a while

[JAMES_PRYDE]

Last Annihilation and Falcon Bloodnames ?

Is this new 3250 loremaster entries in ilClan Era ?

[Geg]

Last Annihilation and Falcon Bloodnames ?

Is this new 3250 loremaster entries in ilClan Era ?

The Falcon Bloodnames are from the 3250 Lore Master Entries.  They are written by someone with the surname of named Roshack   

The Last Annihilation was name dropped in the TRO:Dark Ages as an event that happened at the start of the ilClan Era, after the fall of Terra, the HPGs had a fix, but while the blackout still lingered.  That is literally all we know about it.   It's close enough to the current time that we should at least know the players, and it it was telegraphed in the TRO:DA there are good odds that it will connect to other existing hooks that have dropped since then and not come completely out of the blue.

[JAMES_PRYDE]

Thanks

So this is on sarna ?

[Wrangler]

Thanks

So this is on sarna ?

No much, essentially spread out through the TRO era named books when it comes to the 3250 stuff.

[Metallgewitter]

The only thing that also was named in those 3250 bubbles was that apparently the new Star League introduced the Gunslingers again as a nod to the knights of the old Republic of the Sphere. Which could be seen as a way of the IlClan incoporating ideas from the Republic but "better"

[Cannonshop]

It is waaaaay past time for the fedcom powers to stop karmicly paying for the 4th sucession war

Are you kidding? The Lyrans aren't space germany, they're space Poland-they're where everyone else goes to get their war on, and they're the land everyone else takes, just like Poland was from the late 1600's to the end of World War Two.

They're also a supplier of competent mercenaries, with a brutally incompetent Military-all their best officers leave for the private sector to fight for someone else.

Further, after Hanse, the Lyrans have utterly failed in the statecraft job of picking useful allies and upholding their alliances.

Caleb Davion was a catastrophe on the order of other random natural disasters, The Lyrans are like that all the time.

They've been written that way for long enough, extensively enough, now, that a reversal and sudden ability to do basic, simple things like keeping a few competent leaders in place, and managing to stabilize the bleeding and fight back? that's out of character now.

It's not permitted.

They're the designated second-place punching bag, that's what they are, their 'role' in the Inner Sphere-to be easily crushed, but not really worth the effort, as Alaric pointed out.

[Geg]

They're also a supplier of competent mercenaries, with a brutally incompetent Military-all their best officers leave for the private sector to fight for someone else.

Completely off topic, but this is what I think the consensus around, Stone, the Paladins and the RAF will be in the 3160s.

[Church14]

Completely off topic, but this is what I think the consensus around, Stone, the Paladins and the RAF will be in the 3160s.

Unfortunately, given the twinned trash heaps of the RotS part of Shattered Fortress and of HotW, and the zero craps CGL seems to have had for RotS, this is quite probably correct.

[BrianDavion]

Unfortunately, given the twinned trash heaps of the RotS part of Shattered Fortress and of HotW, and the zero craps CGL seems to have had for RotS, this is quite probably correct.

It could well be that the RAF valued political orthadoxy over effectiveness at higher levels. in fact didn't one of the MWDA books imply this might be the case?

[Minemech]

It could well be that the RAF valued political orthadoxy over effectiveness at higher levels. in fact didn't one of the MWDA books imply this might be the case?

The Republic made its parade units all about diversity, whilst its elite and veteran units took a background position. Hence the Hastati were actually quite good, while the Triari were bad...
 Their Paladins did include political appointments, but even then, Thaddeus Marik and the like were accomplished tacticians and politicians.

[Maingunnery]

It could well be that the RAF valued political orthadoxy over effectiveness at higher levels. in fact didn't one of the MWDA books imply this might be the case?

They had massive internal conflicts which could cause them to put loyalty above merit. When that happens it will spread to all levels.

[Church14]

The Republic made its parade units all about diversity, whilst its elite and veteran units took a background position. Hence the Hastati were actually quite good, while the Triari were bad...
 Their Paladins did include political appointments, but even then, Thaddeus Marik and the like were accomplished tacticians and politicians.

Triarii were almost as political as military in some ways. They were training grounds for soldiers to learn to run elbows properly and learn to show the flag well. Once the soldiers were actually good soldiers, they moved to Hastati and Principes.


But I feel that we’ve derailed off topic unless any one of us believes RAF formations are coming back in the ilclan. I’d love some of, well, anything of the republic to survive, but I don’t see wolves naming the “SLDF” units after RAF formations. I feel like they’d resurrect units that left on the exodus or died fighting Amaris.

[Natasha Kerensky]

Look at the unit experience/quality rankings in FM3145. Simply put, the IS training/unit effectiveness got better over time, while the clans stagnated or deteriorated.

Unit ratings don’t have the granular detail necessary to make claims about the efficacy of a faction’s training programs.  Even if the units are the same size (and they’re not), one unit could have 51 out of 100 mechwarriors with G2/P3 skills and another could have 100 out of 100 mechwarriors with G0/P0 skills, and both units could be rated “Elite”.

And again, training and individual skills aren’t all that would go into a unit rating, anyway.  The likely reason why the RotS has some better unit ratings in FM: 3145 is because the bulk of their units have been sitting behind the Wall for years and decades, while the Clanners have been steadily fighting their way to Terra and elsewhere for years and decades.  To the extent there is a difference in the unit ratings between the RotS and Clanners in FM: 3145, it’s almost certainly more about attrition than training.

The only thing we know for sure about the efficacy of training programs in the BT universe is that the Clan system produces lower G/P skills on average than the Spheroid systems.  That’s it.  And even that may be due to factors that have nothing to do with training quality, like the Clanners’ eugenics program or the high failure rate in some Clans.

So what makes you think the ilClan era ends with a happy, successful ilClan?

I don’t.  The ilClan Era will end when the ilClan falls, which by definition won’t be “happy” or “successful” for the ilClan.  But between now and then, the ilClan will be on the rise for part or parts of this era.  That’s just the obvious plot arc for a period called the “ilClan Era”.

Dead republic is what it is, I just wish it would have been done with any sense of dignity and not ax grinding.

I agree.  The transition between Dark Age and ilClan was handled poorly.  It robbed other factions of victories that should have been more hard won.

There’s no consistent in universe logic that puts the wolves way ahead in just five years.

Sure there is.  The rapid reveal of the ComGuards after the Fourth Succession War.  The even more rapid Blakist buildup prior to the Jihad.  The sheer population figures for Terra and Mars.  The dozens of military production lines in the canon that have been built on Terra and Mars.  Etc.

That doesn’t mean the authors will take the ilClan down similar paths or have them utilize those resources.  But there would be no big break with the continuity of the BT universe if they did.

You suggested a massive, contrived increase

You are ignoring them...

That’s fan fiction on your end...

I find the last bit amusing coming from someone who decided to take an iconic wolf name for their handle...

The “Report to Mod” buttons don’t seem to be working anymore, so I’m asking you politely a second time to stop the repeated personal attacks.  They’re likely Rule #1 and Rule #3 violations if and when mods can get reports again.  Please play the ball, not the player.

Thank you.

[rebs]

Hmmmm, maybe I did not use correct phrasing in the OP

I meant that within the first 5 years, Alaric is gone, then the next 15 years worth of civil, political, and military integration of the populace of the "new league" has had it own for want of a better word "RoTs integrations and pax", what would the IS map/populace look like in 3172 at that point.

The thought was to do a thought experiment and a mini time jump 20 years in, like they did with Dark Age, just not as long, and get ideas or speculations.

To how the melting pot would look

James

I had fun trying!  I made up some stuff right on the spot. 

All it got was the above - adults who take their selves and their opinions entirely too seriously and people who respond to that.

[Church14]

I am “playing the ball.” I’m pointing out the few actual numbers or sourcebook evaluations we have. The response I received was “nuh uh.”

I point out unit evaluations in FM3145. And I’m talking faction wide averages. The data is there and you ignore it.

I point out consistent in universe patterns regarding population base and troops. You keep ignoring the Terra is 12 out of what I understand to be 500ish billion people in the sphere. That’s 2% of the sphere’s population and you argue they should have 30-50% of the fighting strength in the sphere.

Calling an argument “contrived” isn’t a personal attack. It’s the term used for when story developments do not flow naturally. It’s an accurate term for the wolves getting massive efficiency increases over every other faction without any justification.

You took the shot at me and tried to say I’m just grinding an ax. I pointed out that you seem to be a wolf fan given your handle. By all means report me. I’ve done nothing wrong.

But this has now drifted well off topic.

[rebs]

I am “playing the ball.” I’m pointing out the few actual numbers or sourcebook evaluations we have. The response I received was “nuh uh.”

I point out unit evaluations in FM3145. And I’m talking faction wide averages. The data is there and you ignore it.

I point out consistent in universe patterns regarding population base and troops. You keep ignoring the Terra is 12 out of what I understand to be 500ish billion people in the sphere. That’s 2% of the sphere’s population and you argue they should have 30-50% of the fighting strength in the sphere.

Calling an argument “contrived” isn’t a personal attack. It’s the term used for when story developments do not flow naturally. It’s an accurate term for the wolves getting massive efficiency increases over every other faction without any justification.

You took the shot at me and tried to say I’m just grinding an ax. I pointed out that you seem to be a wolf fan given your handle. By all means report me. I’ve done nothing wrong.

But this has now drifted well off topic.

Is this arguing with Natasha, or...?