ilClan Speculation: place your bets

[Drewbacca]

The feeling I am getting is that the arrivals came in invited. The challenge they sent is a formality. So the question is who? Who ever it would be would have to be strong enough that Stone would think they could defend the republic and trustworthy enough to do the job. They would also need a reputation for going easy on the locals.

All this points to the Bears, but that seems to easy. The Sharks, sad to say, don't seem like a good option as far as trust goes and the Ravens are too weak.

The only other option I have is a Clan that may not have the strength themseles, but can call on strength to get the job done.

I am thinking Wolves-in-Exile. It does seem like a Mary-Sue situation, but I see them pulling in what is left of the Kell Hounds and other mercenary units. I think we will see a Falcon Civil War that puts them out of action. The Bears will back the Wolves-in-Exiles as they really have no horse in the ilClan race and just don't want to see the Wolf Empire take it.

[Minemech]

Good points, and logical since the last two similarly situated states, the Terran Hegemony and Blake Protectorate also collapsed.

Playing devil's advocate however, I would point out that everyone suffered from the Blackout.  Other similarly situated states like the Lyrans and FedSuns also crippled their militaries following Stone's policies and also faced invaders on multiple fronts.  Both states found their homeworlds invaded, both states had their heads of state killed and/or deposed.  The FedSuns literally lost both their head of state and 20% of their armed forces in a week.  Both the LC and FS suffered heavier losses and continue to fight using good old fashioned steel, tactics and grit and neither had a magic wall to protect their homeworlds.  The RotS, even with the Fortress, was demoralized and facing internal strife and might have been on its way to a slow death before Stone came back.

The Republic also made use of paper tiger units. This cost the Republic dearly, both when those borders became unsafe, and when they needed to draw extra troops to major fronts. There were other scandals in the background, some of which made for a good novel run.

[Colt Ward]

The Republic's problems cannot really be compared to the FS/LC no matter how badly both found themselves . . .

External enemies . . . while both the LC & FS found themselves eventually fighting on two fronts, the Republic found themselves with enemies in the Capellans, Dracs, next the Falcons, the Wolves did a drive by and eventually returned.  So . . . double the enemies of those two Houses.

Internal enemies . . . the Republic had the Senators trying to pull off a coup that turned into a civil war on the capital when it was discovered.  It also balkanized b/c the effort to erase previous identities had not taken hold- it was not just the Steel Wolves, Swordsworn, Dragon's Fury, Spirit Cats, Bannson's Raiders, or Stormhammers.  We also had the Free Eagles (ER Dark Ages has another 8 groups), unnamed Hell's Horses & Ghost Bear militias/wannabes following Steel Wolf model, and wannabe warlords (Patriot's Stand).  Julian decided not to oppose his cousin in order to avoid causing a civil war, and Melissa was deposed in a coup that caused very little military disruption . . . so no internal fighting anywhere near the scale of the Republic.

The Republic's internal problems created a feedback cycle that robbed later Exarchs of support and military resources to deal with the problems- and a big chunk of being unable to deal with the problems was a lack of communication keeping responses from being timely.

[tassa_kay]

...unnamed Hell's Horses & Ghost Bear militias/wannabes following Steel Wolf model...

Source on that? I’m curious because the only data I was ever able to find on the Hell’s Horses in the Republic can be summed up in a couple of bullet points.

• The Horses only had a single enclave in the Republic, on Ruchbah.
• The only Hell’s Horse of note ever mentioned was Kara Fletcher, an Elemental who commanded an infantry unit in the Spirit Cats’ Shiva Keshik.

[Sobakaa]

Honestly, while i was reading this book i had one thought coming to mind time and again - what was even the point of turning the Wall off?
It mentions Stone saying something along the lines "We have to act now, if we wait more everything will be lost". I don't believe Stone cared enough about FedSuns to rush to their rescue or that he was afraid of Republic enemies uniting any time soon - that was definitely not the case.
Supposedly Republic had a large enough military force to do whatever it was they planned to, but what have they actually achieved? Lost time and resources on Remnants (which was ultimately useless since the entirety of the Remnant forces was wiped out anyway, not even halting the Clans), unsuccessfully campaigned against Wolves, Capellans and Combine.
The book does not really mention any RAF victories, only their attempts to contain the attackers - something they wouldn't have to do with the walls still being in place. Across Dark Age books it is mentioned several times that republic intelligence was able to go beyond the wall, so they had at least some estimation of the forces of at least Falcons and Wolves who they knew would jump on them immediately.
Even if we assume Stone forged a deal with some Clan prior to the whole Wall going down thing (who would be interested in a deal afterwards with a clear way to Terra?), what was he to gain from that? Why not invite that Clan into the Prefecture X to work on a joint plan to un-****** the Republic? My only guess would be he knew that someone was watching the Republic, waiting for the Wall to go down, and he placed his bet on that someone to arrive sooner.
It clearly is not any of the Clans heavily mentioned in this book - none of them is interested in a deal with the Republic. Wolves and Falcons can just take it, despite all Alaric's caution his Clan is strong enough to do it. Foxes won't have any profit. Bears are much more concerned with their internal affairs, judging by the fact they did not act to reclaim lost worlds when the population was found to be treated fairly. That leaves the Clans not mentioned - Ravens and an assortment of half-killed or far away entities. The Ravens have the fleets, but would they want to lose a sizeable chunk of that on what basically is a coin toss?
That leaves us with two options - Wolves find a way in and the next book ends the hostilities around Terra in a single chapter - trial of combat against Stone, Alaric takes the planet, it is universally considered to be a bad move and we have another 10 years of combat; or some out-of-nowhere faction finally arrives and something completely unpredictable happens.

[TwinkieMonkieIIC]

The Republic's problems cannot really be compared to the FS/LC no matter how badly both found themselves . . .

External enemies . . . while both the LC & FS found themselves eventually fighting on two fronts, the Republic found themselves with enemies in the Capellans, Dracs, next the Falcons, the Wolves did a drive by and eventually returned.  So . . . double the enemies of those two Houses.

Internal enemies . . . the Republic had the Senators trying to pull off a coup that turned into a civil war on the capital when it was discovered.  It also balkanized b/c the effort to erase previous identities had not taken hold- it was not just the Steel Wolves, Swordsworn, Dragon's Fury, Spirit Cats, Bannson's Raiders, or Stormhammers.  We also had the Free Eagles (ER Dark Ages has another 8 groups), unnamed Hell's Horses & Ghost Bear militias/wannabes following Steel Wolf model, and wannabe warlords (Patriot's Stand).  Julian decided not to oppose his cousin in order to avoid causing a civil war, and Melissa was deposed in a coup that caused very little military disruption . . . so no internal fighting anywhere near the scale of the Republic.

The Republic's internal problems created a feedback cycle that robbed later Exarchs of support and military resources to deal with the problems- and a big chunk of being unable to deal with the problems was a lack of communication keeping responses from being timely.

True it faced more enemies but even after the Fortress went up and there was zero possibility of external invasion of Terra like New Avalon and Tharkad, the RotS's problems persisted.  Even after internal factions were put down, the RotS faced unrest and internal strife.  Even in a vacuum behind the Fortress the Republic was falling in on itself until Devlin Stone came back and turned it around.  Look at Levin's reaction after Stone reappeared, he instantly wanted to give up being head of state to a man that was literally asleep for over a decade.

You're right, the Republic had an level of internal factionalism that was substantially higher than the FedSuns and Lyrans. I do however take that as more evidence that the Republic just a cult of personality around Stone since those states' ability to sustain devastating losses, including loss of their heads of state and/or capitols and soldier on with a continuity of government shows that those nations' societies and institutions are not reliant on a single man and didn't fall apart like the Republic did without Stone at the helm.

[phoenixalpha]

I still think the Adders will be invited to become SLDF 3.0 and defend the Republic from forces without. Only the Adders could face down the Falcons/Capellans/Wolves & Combine at one time and win.

[Colt Ward]

Source on that? I’m curious because the only data I was ever able to find on the Hell’s Horses in the Republic can be summed up in a couple of bullet points.

• The Horses only had a single enclave in the Republic, on Ruchbah.
• The only Hell’s Horse of note ever mentioned was Kara Fletcher, an Elemental who commanded an infantry unit in the Spirit Cats’ Shiva Keshik.

Which may have been the only pure Horse enclave- I do not remember what the Horses gave to Stone at the end of the Jihad.  I want to say some of the other freebirth entries mention running against the Horses, or maybe I extrapolated out too much.  ER Dark Ages also implies other general Clan enclaves.

For Bears look at Geoff Bekker with his Kodiak.

[tassa_kay]

I still think the Adders will be invited to become SLDF 3.0 and defend the Republic from forces without. Only the Adders could face down the Falcons/Capellans/Wolves & Combine at one time and win.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Literally the only thing that would give the Adders a chance against all of those powers at once is their WarShip fleet. They’d otherwise get crushed under a dogpile.

[phoenixalpha]

Warships plus 20+ Galaxies of fresh troops with fresh mechs, armour & aerospace plus whats left of the RAF I think would be enough to hold and push back all relevant enemies to the Republic borders. That would enable the Davion & Lyran forces breathing space to push back themselves creating stable but very weakened Successor States. So essentially everyone would be war exhausted, very demoralised and willing to come to the table to talk peace thus the rise of SL 3.0 - what is left of the RAF/Star Adders become the new SLDF and peace reigns for a while. Enough for a wee time jump - everyone resets, everyone rebuilds. New forces, new tech, new actors on the stage whilst still wearing the garb of the old & familiar.

[Minemech]

 I wonder if the new Star League would recognize that of the 31st century as valid. I think they would identify it properly as a coalition, rather than a formal Star League.

 That said, I could easily see the Ravens taking a coin toss, for the prize. They could possibly bring some Bears in, to back their odds. It would be the war to end the Crusader vs Warden conflict, and if successful, the Snow Ravens would have impressive influence over the other Clans. Without boldness, there will never be victory.

[Phobos]

Most likely the Ghost Bears. They are still a power house, were very friendly towards the Republic and Stone in particular and Stone is looking for help beyond the FedSuns as sole Allies (I guess the FWL will turn out to be another ally even if Stone claimed they were traditionally hostile towards the Republic).

Or... the Sea Foxes, since they seem to be winning no matter what/the situation.
Wolves or Jade Falcons would be too obvious.
Adders might make for a cool story but I have the feeling that TPTB have simply closed the book on the HW Clans with Wars of Reaving and the one or two little bits of information after said sourcebook.

[Tai Dai Cultist]

So I see a lot of discussion about a "new" Star League under the ilClan.


What do people imagine that looks like? ilClan/SLDF forces posted only inside the ilClan Supremacy/Terran Hegemony 3.0, and we have a soft reboot to the Age of War?  Or the ilClan/NuSLDF is posted everywhere ala the original SLDF/ComGuards and enforces a PeaceTech, even if only temporarily?

[tassa_kay]

Warships plus 20+ Galaxies of fresh troops with fresh mechs, armour & aerospace plus whats left of the RAF I think would be enough to hold and push back all relevant enemies to the Republic borders. That would enable the Davion & Lyran forces breathing space to push back themselves creating stable but very weakened Successor States. So essentially everyone would be war exhausted, very demoralised and willing to come to the table to talk peace thus the rise of SL 3.0 - what is left of the RAF/Star Adders become the new SLDF and peace reigns for a while. Enough for a wee time jump - everyone resets, everyone rebuilds. New forces, new tech, new actors on the stage whilst still wearing the garb of the old & familiar.

It’s a nice fantasy, but the odds of the Star Adders working with Spheroids on anything are only slightly higher than the Republic asking for their help in the first place. Which is to say, virtually nil.

Then again, TPTB have certainly pulled more than a few nonsensical plot rabbits out of the hat before, so who knows?

[SteveRestless]

So I see a lot of discussion about a "new" Star League under the ilClan.


What do people imagine that looks like? ilClan/SLDF forces posted only inside the ilClan Supremacy/Terran Hegemony 3.0, and we have a soft reboot to the Age of War?  Or the ilClan/NuSLDF is posted everywhere ala the original SLDF/ComGuards and enforces a PeaceTech, even if only temporarily?

I envision the ilClan operating as a new Terran Hegemony, with member states fostering other clans. Member states get to keep a military and engage in trials with other members/clans, but retain a level of assurance that no other state will be allowed to wipe them out. Non member states would face the fill might of the League when attacking a member states and the league might offer support if a member state wanted to wage war with an external party.

Basically Golden Century remixed with the Star League Era.

Third League Turning Points might offer some clues too.

[jimdigris]

Why are we discussing the Adders in this context?  We don't even know if they still exist.  Sure, they were the strongest at the end of the Wars of Reaving, but that also has the effect of painting a giant target on their backs.  They were supposed to launch a new crusade within a few years of the writing of that book, but the invasion never came. 

[TwinkieMonkieIIC]

Why are we discussing the Adders in this context?  We don't even know if they still exist.  Sure, they were the strongest at the end of the Wars of Reaving, but that also has the effect of painting a giant target on their backs.  They were supposed to launch a new crusade within a few years of the writing of that book, but the invasion never came.

Add to that their whole attitude by the end of the Wars of Reaving was that they wanted nothing to do with inner sphere taint.

[tassa_kay]

Add to that their whole attitude by the end of the Wars of Reaving was that they wanted nothing to do with inner sphere taint.

Except for their invasion. That was specifically mentioned in the Bastion/Aggressor write-up and a few other places besides.

And that last line of Shattered Sphere, about that Clan fleet arriving over Earth (Who else has enough WarShips to be considered a fleet? And Spheroid Clan vessels weren’t able to penetrate the Wall), could imply the arrival of the Adders. Sure, they might never appear again, but I doubt that very much. I don’t think they’d have gone through the trouble of writing the WoR Supplemental if the WoR was their last gasp. They’re being set up for a new invasion.

I think they’re as likely as anyone else to show up in ilClan.

[Colt Ward]

And that last line of Shattered Sphere, about that Clan fleet arriving over Earth (Who else has enough WarShips to be considered a fleet? And Spheroid Clan vessels weren’t able to penetrate the Wall)

A fleet does not have to be composed of just warships- JS hit la grange points all the time.  Stone has also let groups in & out before, it would not be a surprise for him to extend another invitation.

[tassa_kay]

A fleet does not have to be composed of just warships- JS hit la grange points all the time.  Stone has also let groups in & out before, it would not be a surprise for him to extend another invitation.

Oh, absolutely. It could be any Clan, really. Or even Clans. But I’m leaning towards something truly shocking here, something that won’t be as predictable as 90% of everything that happens in BattleTech. And as it stands right now, as I mentioned, the Adders are just as likely as anyone else.

[Maingunnery]

Except for their invasion. That was specifically mentioned in the Bastion/Aggressor write-up and a few other places besides.

That would depend on who wins ich stance wins the eventual showdown between the Bastion and Aggressors.

And that last line of Shattered Sphere, about that Clan fleet arriving over Earth (Who else has enough WarShips to be considered a fleet?

The Ravens, and they were constructing new ships (XTRO Republic III p17). And if they team up with the Bears then it is a scary fleet.

And Spheroid Clan vessels weren’t able to penetrate the Wall), could imply the arrival of the Adders.

Last that we read of them HW Clans are no more capable of penetrating the wall. The only know way now is by invitation or equipment failure (of the wall), and for the former it is more reasonable for the IS Clans to be in contact with Stone. 

Sure, they might never appear again, but I doubt that very much. I don’t think they’d have gone through the trouble of writing the WoR Supplemental if the WoR was their last gasp. They’re being set up for a new invasion.

Well we need something to happen in 3250....

[tassa_kay]

That would depend on who wins ich stance wins the eventual showdown between the Bastion and Aggressors.

Not really. Both are on board for an Inner Sphere invasion, and the Adders are calling the shots on that one anyway.

The Ravens, and they were constructing new ships (XTRO Republic III p17). And if they team up with the Bears then it is a scary fleet.

True. But would either of them care about Terra at this point?

Last that we read of them HW Clans are no more capable of penetrating the wall. The only know way now is by invitation or equipment failure (of the wall), and for the former it is more reasonable for the IS Clans to be in contact with Stone.

A lot of things can change between the late 3000s and 3151. We don’t know what technology they’ve developed since then or what contact Devlin Stone (or others) may have had with them.

It’s just way too early for anyone to say it’s impossible. That’s my take on it.

Well we need something to happen in 3250....

3250? Are we time-jumping AGAIN? :bang:

[Maingunnery]

Not really. Both are on board for an Inner Sphere invasion, and the Adders are calling the shots on that one anyway.

The bastions are very iffy concering invasion, but even if they want it, history should have taught them all that they can't invade without more unity in their approach. Which is why I suspect that there is a Bastion-Agressor civil war right now.

True. But would either of them care about Terra at this point?

Depends on what they can gain from it. Stone or the Wolfs could have made some big promises.

A lot of things can change between the late 3000s and 3151. We don’t know what technology they’ve developed since then or what contact Devlin Stone (or others) may have had with them.

The same is true for the IS Clans, their security has greatly increased.

3250? Are we time-jumping AGAIN? :bang:

We don't know, relax, but the date seems important.

[tassa_kay]

The bastions are very iffy concering invasion, but even if they want it, history should have taught them all that they can't invade without more unity in their approach. Which is why I suspect that there is a Bastion-Agressor civil war right now.

They aren’t iffy about invading, not really. They’re iffy about the methods used, and the speed. The Adders created the Bastion viewpoint and they want the invasion more than anyone.

A Bastion/Aggressor civil war could have happened, but I doubt it. The Adders simply won’t repeat the Warden/Crusader folly. They’ve worked too hard to let that happen.

Depends on what they can gain from it. Stone or the Wolfs could have made some big promises.

Maybe, but they both seem like they’ve long since moved on from dreams of ilClan, especially the Bears, who’ve gone native more than any other Clan.

We don't know, relax, but the date seems important.

Why does it seem important? Where did that date even come from?

[Tai Dai Cultist]

Why does it seem important? Where did that date even come from?

There was the once-upon-a-time-announced timejump to 3250, which has since been walked back.  3250 is something of a meme on the forum, sometimes used to reference the wailing and gnashing on this forum regarding the possibility of a time jump.

Additionally (and assuredly not completely coincidentally), some of the more recent "past history" sourcebooks have an in-universe date of 3250, although they cover the respective era for the book.

[Maingunnery]

They aren’t iffy about invading, not really. They’re iffy about the methods used, and the speed. The Adders created the Bastion viewpoint and they want the invasion more than anyone.

A Bastion/Aggressor civil war could have happened, but I doubt it. The Adders simply won’t repeat the Warden/Crusader folly. They’ve worked too hard to let that happen.

The Warden/Crusader folly happened because it wasn't resolved before the invasion, this means that the HW Clans will have to resolve the new divide before a new invasion.

Maybe, but they both seem like they’ve long since moved on from dreams of ilClan, especially the Bears, who’ve gone native more than any other Clan.

So? The deal doesn't have to involve the Bears or Ravens becoming the IlClan, there are a near infinite other things that they can get from a deal with Stone or the Wolfs.

[tassa_kay]

The Warden/Crusader folly happened because it wasn't resolved before the invasion, this means that the HW Clans will have to resolve the new divide before a new invasion.

Which they’ll have had nearly a century to do, and with only four Clans to contend with instead of over a dozen, with one Clan guiding them with a pretty firm hand. I don’t see that as an insurmountable issue at all.
 

So? The deal doesn't have to involve the Bears or Ravens becoming the IlClan, there are a near infinite other things that they can get from a deal with Stone or the Wolfs.

So what could Stone have at this point that either of them would want (and can’t simply take for themselves)?

[Minemech]

 The Ravens aren't stupid, if someone is going to allow them an easier path to ilClan, they will take it. They simply are not the best ground fighters, but could provide some brutal air support. Clan Ghost Bear may be the most pro-Republic state in the BattleTech universe.

[Kit deSummersville]

Why does it seem important? Where did that date even come from?

It seems to follow 3249 for some reason.

[tassa_kay]

It seems to follow 3249 for some reason.

Never change.  :D