The lawn dart check, a bit excessive as it might be, is supposedly simulating atmospheric control surfaces being scratched or blocked.
We can assume that the moving parts on the outside of an ASF are a lot more susceptible to outside interference than the main hull, which, as stated, is usually a block of armour with vent holes for thrusting.
As such, the armour thresholds are meant to simulate impacts on the hull breaking something inside.
Gameplay wise, I find it to be rather fair - the whole concept of strafing is silly, anyways, I could see that work if every singular weapon could only hit one target.
Heavy fighters already rule the black sea, with vectored thrust there's no need to have weapons aft, and mobility is overrated unless you manage to generate evasion modifiers that make you unhitable.
The one point of contention I have is that, fluff-wise, there are supposedly unaerodynamic ASFs who use raw thrust to maneuver in atmosphere. Those can still fly, if not very efficient, and any regular fighter, even with damaged controls, should still be capable of falling back on that.
the problem with that as I mentioned is that is that is if you are being even somewhat realistic, the "lawn dart" check actually has NOTHING to do with damaging controls, its just a mechanism to abruptly kill fighters when they would just shrug off the damage. One thing to remember is fighters weather conventional or aerospace really have nothing in common with modern fighters, other than that they fly.
as a point what are most fighters made out of? aluminum, possibly some titanium, various composite materials etc. none of which are really armor. heck one of the aircraft that is the most survivable (ever) to enemy fire actually hitting it is the various incarnations of the warthog, because it can do things like keep flying with 1 (of 2 ) engines completely non functional, ~1/2 of the wings shredded and the tail all shot up, and still make it back to base. and the only part that I would actually call armored on the plane is the pilots "tub" that the pilot is inside.
on the other hand aerospace fighters and to a lesser extent conventional fighters are actually armored, so their "skins" would be a LOT more resistant to damage than we can reasonably imagine.
As another point why is it that the only possible effect of these failed control checks is to drive the aircraft down which usually results in it hitting the ground? That also argues against the argument that it represents any damage to controls and being anything other than a mechanism to kill fighters easier. Its why I suggested that it should be replaced with a "random movement" effect that causes the fighter to move up or down or to the sides which would have just as much effect on disrupting the ground attacks as the current mechanism, it just wouldn't be an automatic death sentence for the aircraft if it takes ANY damage, and fails a control check.
as far as taking damage, I would actually also be ok with making the threshold check being linked to total damage taken during the round much like a piloting check for battlemechs for taking 20 or more damage in a single round. possibly with a cumulative penalty (option) based on total damage taken, like the +1 per 20 damage taken.
as it is currently if I remember right, lets say I am doing a ground attack with a stuka, a 100 ton aerospace fighter with fairly heavy armor, and I attack a lance that has a couple aa mechs, and they hit my fighter with a variety of weapons, none of which can actually penetrate my armor, but I get hit with a couple ac 5's firing flack and some LB-x autocannons firing cluster, and every single hit cause a chance to one shot kill me even if I had armor that reduces the damage (like ferro lam) that's what I am saying is a bit excessive.