Author Topic: Star League - Third Time's a Charm  (Read 2153 times)

Geg

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Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« on: 25 June 2024, 11:46:32 »
With ilKhan's Eyes Only and Trial of Birthright both creeping inexorably closer, let us as a community come together and take stock about:

What do we know for certain about the 3rd League & and ilClan.
What do we suspect?
What do we think will happen.
« Last Edit: 25 June 2024, 12:00:54 by Geg »

Luciora

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #1 on: 25 June 2024, 18:35:02 »
Gauss Cannons and Grasers when?

Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #2 on: 25 June 2024, 23:19:35 »
With ilKhan's Eyes Only and Trial of Birthright both creeping inexorably closer, let us as a community come together and take stock about:

What do we know for certain about the 3rd League & and ilClan.
What do we suspect?
What do we think will happen.
Not much confirmed. Safe to say 3SL exists with the Wolves as the core strength backed by falcons, nuJags, at least a fox Khanate, 1 Raven Galaxy for sure, and 2 Raven naval stars

We suspect Terrans will form a Hegemony analogue that uses a clannified Hegemony logo and adopts SLDF colors.

JAMES_PRYDE

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #3 on: 26 June 2024, 08:09:32 »
With ilKhan's Eyes Only and Trial of Birthright both creeping inexorably closer

How close  :cool: ?

Falcons will remain split for now, bits of the Bear will join
« Last Edit: 26 June 2024, 08:11:23 by JAMES_PRYDE »

CJC070

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #4 on: 26 June 2024, 09:40:38 »
Unless Alaric tries the diplomatic approach the “Star League” will be smaller than the Terran Hegemony.  Although I’m more interested in the Tamar region I don’t see Alarics Star League to be the all power that even the Republic of the Sphere had. 
And let’s be honest with the de-emphasis of warships I see the Ravens Naval Stars having a sudden decline in numbers.  Hopefully it is not a brief paragraph of the warships suddenly failing on the final jump to Terra.

Neo-Tanuki

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #5 on: 07 July 2024, 09:13:36 »
If the new Smoke Jaguars become the Star League's special/covert ops forces as hinted in the IKEO art previews, I'd love to see some clashes between the Jaguars and the Liao Death Commandos or Warrior Houses.

Stormlion1

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #6 on: 07 July 2024, 09:53:38 »
Probably gonna demand the Successor States give up all the world's of the old Terran Hegemony and enforce it with putting warships over the various Successor State Capitol.
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ANS Kamas P81

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #7 on: 07 July 2024, 15:39:04 »
Probably gonna demand the Successor States give up all the world's of the old Terran Hegemony and enforce it with putting warships over the various Successor State Capitol.

Didn't the Blakists try that...
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Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #8 on: 07 July 2024, 19:16:10 »
Didn't the Blakists try that...

It’s hard to get the Great Houses to agree on anything, but this one seems to do it

Metallgewitter

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #9 on: 08 July 2024, 04:17:37 »
Probably gonna demand the Successor States give up all the world's of the old Terran Hegemony and enforce it with putting warships over the various Successor State Capitol.

And in case of New Avalon it drew the nuclear response when the 5th Fed com RCT showed up and unleashed their arsenal.

Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #10 on: 08 July 2024, 16:09:31 »
I can’t see the Wolves and Ravens being so brazenly stupid. The wolves are incredibly weak at this moment. The smart play is securing a couple years worth of future. So trying to turn back the Daoshen and CCAF, then securing a small zone to buffer Terra. Anything more in the short term is asking for nations to set aside their current grudges and annihilate the Wolfes. 

Lyrans are far away thanks to the Falcons and no threat. Why risk losing the better part of a naval Star taking Tharkad and fighting the counterattack?

FedSuns are something like 4 jumps from Terra and not at all looking at the Wolves. Why send a fleet to New Avalon to make them turn and prepare war against the wolves?

The combine has plenty to worry about. Why go to Luthien and get the dragon to turn her attention to Terra? And DCMS is going to be a bit extreme in their response to Raven warships over luthien. Nukes, some other nukes, a few more nukes, and then nuking whatever survived.

Warships over Sian? Okay. This is within plausible, but wolves have to fight their way to Sian and that’s a huge ask.

Metallgewitter

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #11 on: 08 July 2024, 16:21:01 »
The Wolves have other concerns atm. For one as you said they need a buffer zone. And furthermore they need new Clan warriors. Their Empire will be gone unless they can somehow send troops there and this will cost them a resource and manpower stream. Just imagine if the League destroys the Gene labs for their Trueborns (including the samples). Not to mention Living Legends 2 makes it sound as if the Empire is still overflowing with Wolf war material. If true the League could gorge itself on all those machines to upgrade a lot of units to Clan standards.

The Ravens will most likely act as a shield for Terra and it's closest planets as they have the biggest fleet that can be spread out if need be. Plus the HPG's on board these ships would make for a handy command communication circuit (of course I am assuming those still work). Of course there is one thing: the Alliance is wide open and should the Suns who are now battle hardened decide to pay a visit the Ravens might have to return home quickly. Because I somehow can't see Eric whose March is now suffering from Raven predations simply sit there and do nothing. Not when he has earned so many accolades pushing the Combine out

Spirit Cat Refugee

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #12 on: 08 July 2024, 17:28:49 »
I believe the biggest carrot the Clan League will have to get Great Houses to join will be the Sea Foxes figuring out how to fix the HPG system as mentioned in Empire Alone.

I also predict Alaric has contact with Kisho Nova Cat and will use him the entire Nova Cat genetic repository as a carrot to get the Spirit Cats to fully come on board with the Clan League. Either he will absorb/release the Clan Protectorate as a 'reborn' Nova Cat, or just lift their abjuration.

Lastly, I predict that the Rasalhague Dominion will fail in its invasion of the Draconis Combine, causing a schism where a sizable amount of Clan folks in the R.D. pick up stakes and leave to the new Hegemony, forming a reborn Clan Ghost Bear free of all the liberalizations of Clan society the RD made.
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Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #13 on: 08 July 2024, 17:42:07 »
The Wolves have other concerns atm. For one as you said they need a buffer zone. And furthermore they need new Clan warriors. Their Empire will be gone unless they can somehow send troops there and this will cost them a resource and manpower stream. Just imagine if the League destroys the Gene labs for their Trueborns (including the samples). Not to mention Living Legends 2 makes it sound as if the Empire is still overflowing with Wolf war material. If true the League could gorge itself on all those machines to upgrade a lot of units to Clan standards.

The Ravens will most likely act as a shield for Terra and it's closest planets as they have the biggest fleet that can be spread out if need be. Plus the HPG's on board these ships would make for a handy command communication circuit (of course I am assuming those still work). Of course there is one thing: the Alliance is wide open and should the Suns who are now battle hardened decide to pay a visit the Ravens might have to return home quickly. Because I somehow can't see Eric whose March is now suffering from Raven predations simply sit there and do nothing. Not when he has earned so many accolades pushing the Combine out
The recruiting seems like the biggest hurdle to the wolves to me.

If wolves had brought their sibkos to Terra, I would say they could hold Terra, rebuild, and expand, and it would be believable, if boring, as a plot. Problem is the lack of trueborns this minute, and the lack of reinforcements means a lot of freeborn recruiting if they want to build up. Which, we see in FM3145 we see isn’t a cultural issue. Wolves recruited at least 37 clusters of freeborn during their plot-issued power up for Terra. I just don’t buy into the theories that Terra will gleefully roll over and provide loyal, fanatical recruits in meaningful numbers immediately. Stone already brought in basically everyone willing to fight, Terra’s population isn’t that large compared to what they recruited from across the entire empire, and HotW told us Terra should despise the wolves. Then there’s the issue that you have the Falcons as a huge (pun intended) albatross around the wolves because the wolves are (presumably) protecting the worst monsters since Amaris.

The only tappable resource of recruits available immediately would be ex-RAF, and that’s a hard sell in and out of universe. The ones that already were willing to sign up already did pre-trial, and maybe you get a few more. You want ex-RAF in numbers, there’s gotta a huge concession from wolves.

So for me, if wolves want to succeed, they need to, in order:
1) Repel CCAF, or at a minimum hit them hard enough to delay them. New recruits in numbers that matter and the buffer aren’t going to happen before this. I don’t see Wolves failing here (in or out of universe). Just a matter of the cost to the wolves
2) Recruitment. Repelling CCAF should be bloody. Wolves should need further rebuilding. They just don’t have the forces pre-CCAF to hold that buffer and garrison Terra. After repelling/pausing CCAF, they should need even more people.
3) Buffer. If they repel CCAF sufficiently, the only other hostile nation is Combine. They can take the buffer slowly.


Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #14 on: 08 July 2024, 17:48:38 »
I believe the biggest carrot the Clan League will have to get Great Houses to join will be the Sea Foxes figuring out how to fix the HPG system as mentioned in Empire Alone.

I also predict Alaric has contact with Kisho Nova Cat and will use him the entire Nova Cat genetic repository as a carrot to get the Spirit Cats to fully come on board with the Clan League. Either he will absorb/release the Clan Protectorate as a 'reborn' Nova Cat, or just lift their abjuration.

Lastly, I predict that the Rasalhague Dominion will fail in its invasion of the Draconis Combine, causing a schism where a sizable amount of Clan folks in the R.D. pick up stakes and leave to the new Hegemony, forming a reborn Clan Ghost Bear free of all the liberalizations of Clan society the RD made.
Earnest question: how long can the Foxes keep their HPG fix a secret? Foxes don’t really possess any unique talents regarding HPGs AFAIK. They just happened to be the first to work it out. At some point, I would expect a Great house will work it out and repair their own.

I think Kisho could run to the wolves and bring the cats. The spirit cats committing suicide by fighting the league or abandoning their home feels like a stretch. Also, out of universe, I am liking the split of the faux league being shards of clans, but not the whole clan. Not really sure I can give a reason why I do. So I do like the RasDom idea that after their invasion goes full disaster, a cluster or two of joiners flee to the league

Nerroth

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #15 on: 08 July 2024, 19:18:05 »
My understanding, which might well be inaccurate, is that the effects from Clarion Note have lingered in each affected star system in the Inner Sphere and near Periphery, to the extent that even newly-built HPGs fail to operate if merely attempting to duplicate the pre-Gray Monday installation.

Notably, each system appears to have its own set of local HPG-related issues: the "fix" which Tucker Harwell was able to implement on Wyatt did not work anywhere else.

In the case of Clan Sea Fox, I suspect that they have had to account for this with their own reported "fix". As in, each system which has been brought back on the grid has its own bespoke set of adjustments required.

Which, if so, might impact the use of mobile HPGs, also. As in, if one were to jump into, say, the Twycross system at some point after June 3152, the on-board HPG would have to have the local "fix" programmed in - but this would only apply while still in that system. A subsequent trip to, say, Alyina, would then require adding that "fix", again only for use in that system. And so on and so forth.

So, even for the likes of Clan Snow Raven, the ability to leverage the mobile HPGs aboard their WarShips would be co-dependent upon the Sea Fox ability to "fix" each system's post-Blackout issues - and, perhaps, their willingness (or otherwise) to share this crucial data with other Clans on the new Star League Council.

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Although, a major exception to the above is with Clan Goliath Scorpion.

Not only were their HPGs unaffected by the Blackout, they have been able to construct new HPGs beyond the pre-3140 Imperio - not just in Hansa systems conquered during the Hanseatic Crusade, but also as far away as the Chaine Cluster.

It stands to reason that their mobile HPGs continue to function also.

Which, in the medium to long term, might make for a valuable point of negotiation, in case Alaric (and/or his successor as ilKhan and First Lord) were to consider opening long-distance negotiations with the Khan and zarKhan at Braunschweig.

Or, if those negotiations don't go well, it might leave the Scorpions in a position to rival the Sea Foxes as a source of viable HPG communications amongst those factions set to oppose Alaric's new Star League - at least in the coreward-antispinward portion of the Inner Sphere and near Periphery.

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Although, there is a third option: what if the Sea Foxes haven't actually fixed the "old" HPGs - but are, in fact, importing new HPGs from the Scorpions via the Chaine Cluster?

Clan Sea Fox has been quite happy to bargain well and done with the Scorpions to date, even with the post-Reaving Abjurations apparently still in place. Although, the degree to which even the Sea Foxes are willing to consider the Scorpions as still being "Clan" seems to vary over time.

So long as the other Clans in the Inner Sphere and near Periphery continue to treat the Scorpions as Abjured, any open admission of where the Sea Foxes are getting their HPGs from might lead to some difficult conversations. But, if the new Star League Council on Terra is open to de-Abjuring the Scorpions, this might put the Sea Foxes in a powerful position of leverage in the midst of such discussions.
« Last Edit: 08 July 2024, 19:19:42 by Nerroth »

JAMES_PRYDE

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #16 on: 09 July 2024, 06:34:50 »
Option 3 sounds more realistic, but Option 2 makes for more "battle" tech

Metallgewitter

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #17 on: 09 July 2024, 06:55:52 »
In terms of HPG's we know from Redemption Rites and Dominion Divided that at least House Marik and House Davion are more then willing to get their hand on functioning HPG tech by any means necessary. Furthermore what good do working HPG's do when you have no forces left to defend? I would think that the wolves will beat the capellans but it will be bloody. Let's say they loose half of what they currently have. Then we are down to 15 clusters of Wolf warriors (and among those are already IS freeborns). I doubt he will send his Falcon body guard out anytime soon but even they might loose more. More and more trueborn Clanner die without any chance to replenish said losses (though that comes from my expectation that the Empire falls quick with the League employing a bulldozer strategy of simply overwhleming the defenders like Operation Guerrero). IF the wolves have to resort to recruit Terrans then at one point those aren't Clan Wolves anymore but rather TERRAN Wolves.

Dr. Banzai

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #18 on: 09 July 2024, 07:56:18 »
Alaric will be overthrown, the clans will be scattered and "might makes right" will die.

I am not the Dr. Banzai from Facebook/Youtube. That person is a hateful person that does not represent the spirit of Buckaroo Banzai nor its fandom.

Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #19 on: 09 July 2024, 08:24:34 »
In terms of HPG's we know from Redemption Rites and Dominion Divided that at least House Marik and House Davion are more then willing to get their hand on functioning HPG tech by any means necessary. Furthermore what good do working HPG's do when you have no forces left to defend? I would think that the wolves will beat the capellans but it will be bloody. Let's say they loose half of what they currently have. Then we are down to 15 clusters of Wolf warriors (and among those are already IS freeborns). I doubt he will send his Falcon body guard out anytime soon but even they might loose more. More and more trueborn Clanner die without any chance to replenish said losses (though that comes from my expectation that the Empire falls quick with the League employing a bulldozer strategy of simply overwhleming the defenders like Operation Guerrero). IF the wolves have to resort to recruit Terrans then at one point those aren't Clan Wolves anymore but rather TERRAN Wolves.

I have a theory that the Clan Wolf of Terra will stop being clan wolf at some point and - due to integration or just absorption after attrition - they become something new. Another IS/clan hybrid. The Wolf Empire will be the setting’s Clan Wolf.

Stormlion1

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #20 on: 09 July 2024, 08:34:42 »
I have a theory that the Clan Wolf of Terra will stop being clan wolf at some point and - due to integration or just absorption after attrition - they become something new. Another IS/clan hybrid. The Wolf Empire will be the setting’s Clan Wolf.

Terran Wolf Hegemony?
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Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #21 on: 09 July 2024, 09:28:41 »
Terran Wolf Hegemony?

A Hegemony IIC, yeah. I don't really have a clear idea how it would work though.

Nerroth

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #22 on: 09 July 2024, 10:46:03 »
I suspect that the IlClan Era Terran entity would function akin to a "conquest dynasty" in imperial China, like the Yuan or Qing Dynasties: with a transfer of the "Mandate of HeavenKerensky" on the surface, yet built on the administrative structure of the Republic in some shape or another.

Hence the reason why, just as each new Chinese dynasty made a point of writing the "official" history of its immediate predecessor each time the Tianming was transferred, the IlClan has been shown to have re-evaluated the Republic Era in retrospect, at least as per the 3250 blurb in Technical Readout: Dark Age.

MarauderD

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #23 on: 09 July 2024, 11:21:18 »
Random note.  I'd like to see the Jade Falcons and Smoke Jaguars at least have an active Galaxy or Cluster in the SLDF.  Having them just in the background as bodyguards or Spec Ops teams seems like a missed opportunity. 

Task forces with Clan Wolf, CSJ, and CJF would offer fun tactical and strategic choices that a plain jane, Star League force might not.

Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #24 on: 09 July 2024, 11:29:51 »
Random note.  I'd like to see the Jade Falcons and Smoke Jaguars at least have an active Galaxy or Cluster in the SLDF.  Having them just in the background as bodyguards or Spec Ops teams seems like a missed opportunity. 

Task forces with Clan Wolf, CSJ, and CJF would offer fun tactical and strategic choices that a plain jane, Star League force might not.
I would be disappointed if the falcons don’t have agency and at least a cluster. I think we’ve been told not to read so much into the HotW hints of black watch role

Church14

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #25 on: 09 July 2024, 11:32:03 »
I suspect that the IlClan Era Terran entity would function akin to a "conquest dynasty" in imperial China, like the Yuan or Qing Dynasties: with a transfer of the "Mandate of HeavenKerensky" on the surface, yet built on the administrative structure of the Republic in some shape or another.

Hence the reason why, just as each new Chinese dynasty made a point of writing the "official" history of its immediate predecessor each time the Tianming was transferred, the IlClan has been shown to have re-evaluated the Republic Era in retrospect, at least as per the 3250 blurb in Technical Readout: Dark Age.
As long as the arc to get there is actually an arc, and painful, and earned. If we just get “the Republic. But now it’s successful because clan wolf is doing it,” it won’t be interesting.

Nerroth

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #26 on: 09 July 2024, 12:37:31 »
Going by the snapshot of events on Caph as offered in the Alpha Strike Boxed Set, there is indeed a place for Terran Falcon Clusters in the task forces being assembled during the time period to be covered in IlKhan's Eyes Only.

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In the case of the Yuan, it took decades for them to complete the conquest of China; even once the Jurchen Jin Dynasty was defeated, the challenge of subduing the Southern Song was a formidable one.

Similarly, while the Qing did not defeat the "northern" Ming directly - rather, they sided with a former Ming general to subdue the rebels who had done so - it still took many years of waging war against "Southern Ming" claimants and the rebellious "Three Feudatories" before the conditions that enabled the era of the High Qing to be reached were firmly set in place.

So even if the ilClan were to follow a similar path, there are plenty of troubles to be faced in the years and decades ahead.

BrianDavion

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #27 on: 09 July 2024, 14:11:42 »
As long as the arc to get there is actually an arc, and painful, and earned. If we just get “the Republic. But now it’s successful because clan wolf is doing it,” it won’t be interesting.

I mean the republic's failures proably aren't due to it's BEUCRACTS
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Metallgewitter

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #28 on: 09 July 2024, 16:09:28 »
Yeah. I would assume Alaric isn't as stupid as Kerensky and keeps at least the structure of the Republic intact. Yes the symbols are vanishing (like the currency, renaming of streets, removing statues etc) but the invisible administration has to stay least his merchants will govern a huge mess.

A theory for the military: I will assume that we might get a separation in the military forces like the old Star League: a regular army (freeborns and Clan younglings and solahma) and something akin to the Royal army consisting of Trueborns and maybe the worthiest IS freeborns (something on par with the knights). In this the Clans would still be the top dogs but they could integrate IS soldiers into their ranks and dangle the carrot of high rank above them.

Or it might go like what the Scorpions did: two Kahns (or perhaps lordlings): one for the Clan and military, one for the civilan administration. Though I suspect Alaric will not survive to see the final stage of a new Star League. Heck we might never see a real Star League and after say a 100 year struggle the IlClan falls to give rise to something else.

Stormlion1

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Re: Star League - Third Time's a Charm
« Reply #29 on: 09 July 2024, 17:39:43 »
One thing I see Alaric doing is separating himself from the Wolves as a Khan but taking the First Lord position and the Ilkhan position and merging them. But to avoid calls of favoritism taking up a seperate and outside the immediate chain of Command of the Wolves. Thus leaves Chance and Anastasia and the Wolves in Exile Khan's and SaKhans to argue over the open positions.
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