What would have happened if the clan invasion was the SLDF invasion?

[Daryk]

Most sure, but not all.

[R.Tempest]

What? Even if there wasn't a Wolf's Dragoons, there are other mercenary units. The main players would have stayed the same, perhaps the only change would be how many victories Anton would actually achieve and who would kill him in the end.

True, but Anton was basically given the Dragoon's contract by Max Liao. 7 regiments IIRC. The only near equivalent unit in size that he could have given them instead would have been MacCarron's Armored Cavalry, and I think they were already well on their way to becoming virtually a house unit for the Capellans.

[Brakiel]

No Dragoons on Outreach means no prototype SLDF/Clan tech available in miniscule amounts by the time of the invasion.

There still would have been lostech gradually becoming available. The Helm Core would presumably still be recovered. And assuming the events of the War of 3039 still play out, lostech is gradually seeping back into circulation (such as Comstar’s snafu with the mech shipments to the DCMS).

[HyperionCormyr]

I feel it would certainly be more of a presentation issue-

The SLDF returns, no matter who is at the head, with new or older advanced Technology and states "It's our way or the highway." everyone is going to dig in and fight tooth and nail. The IS has spent the last 400 year pissed off at each other and these people who essentially ran away just when their stabilizing influence was needed the most. They are just now getting back on their feet and NOW these asshats want to come and claim credit for it? Screw that!

However, a slower, more considered advance, making overtures of assistance to the FRR to help build their infrastructure and military not beholden to the LC or DC? Putting the economy of the FC back on it's feet by helping with the manufacture of recovered technology? Forcing Comstar out of the shadows and making them put up or shut up on the behind the scenes action? Maybe even providing some reparations to the Periphery Realms  that show the most promise?

We might have ended up with the Second Star League sooner. The committee style of leadership for a large number of years until MAYBE one leader finally emerged that started a new dynasty.

Would there still be a number of hot spots and conflicts? Sure. The Draconis March isn't going to forget Kentares. Kali Liao still launches the Black May attacks. The Wobbies still show up, but with a different motivation.

And THEN in 3150 the Clans show up as the descendants of the Rim Worlds Republic. Still with the weird traditions and unusual technology, but a different sort of threat. The Children of Amaris.

[Crimson Dawn]

How powerful would they be at this point?  The clans originally came as a way to control the insanity that the remnants of the SLDF went into.  How would the straight up SLDF finished off the destructive fighting going on that the clans ended?  I am sure they could do it but would they be stronger than they are as the clans?  I am not so sure as the SLDF style government may not treat its worlds like the clans did (for one does the SLDF pour almost all their research into military research without a common enemy and how do they survive without a common enemy?).

[pheonixstorm]

Everyone is still hung up on how the clan invasion happened. For the SLDF I don't see them attacking the periphery borders at all. If they had the supplies and the will to retake and remake the SL why have a slow long slog?

With the Dragoons sent in for intelligence gathering it is a safer bet to assume they would have invaded much earlier. Probably within a decade of the helm core discovery. Likely the first target would have been Terra and controlling the HPG network. With ComStar out of the picture and the network under their control it would be fairly easy to invade the former Hegemony worlds before blasting a surrender or die option to the rest of the houses. This would also likely have them including the FRR as a new house, if it was around during that time.

For the general invasion, don't forget that it is likely the SLDF would be using fleets armed with battleships full of ATAC controlled drones (asf and ds). Combine this with the ARTS and you could drop off a drone warship plus dropships and several regiments worth of fighters then move on to another system. Rinse and repeat, wait a week then jump in for the ground invasion. With all the houses cut off from the HPG network how can you really stop them? FedCom has their black boxes, but those still take time for a message to reach its destination.

[Crimson Dawn]

True with the warships and they do not start striking and just jump from system to system you could probably go quite far with only rumors making people disbelieve that it is really the SLDF until they get to Terra then it is a question of how Comstar wants to handle it.

[Paul]

*list of conditions*

OK, so start in 3028.

-The same number of mechs are used at each phase of the invasion, except organized along SLDF lines. No bidding down forces.

Do you mean that the SLDF only has the numbers of the 4 original invading Clans?
If they have the numbers of all 17 Clans, they'd likely use 80% of that for the invasion. Keep a little back to protect their homeworlds from pirates.

-Wolf's dragoons still gets sent to gather intelligence, but staffed by spies with mechwarrior training rather than random freeborns. They don't switch sides as they have no reason to.

OK, then the SLDF wins. Easily. No way to stop them. They know where to hit, they know roughly where the main military is. Everything that slowed down the Clans is out of play. Their biggest advantage is that they'll use overwhelming force to keep their own losses down. 300 (or more!) Clan-tech Mechs sent to take out 100 IS Mechs. In the 3030s. They won't stand a chance. They'd have a hard time getting even 1 or 2 kills.

Easy plan of attack is to just curbstomp the DCMS out of existence and take Luthien in the opening moves, then retake the Hegemony. DC balkanizes, and instantly puts pressure on their neighbors.
Secondary plan is to do the same with the Lyrans, shred their military on the way to Tharkhad, encourage Skye and Tamar to split.
Though it's less ideal since it nominally keeps you at war with the Feddies while you're 'reclaiming" Hegemony worlds. Which puts you in conflict with the Dracs too. You can absolutely beat the snot out of them, but it'd be nicer to take out 1 Successor, and encourage the other 4 to make peace while they evaluate the new enemy. Gives you time to dig in, especially if you turn ComStar.

If anyone needs any additional encouragement to accept the new reality, you provide it to them. Except now you're not nice about it, and you show em that your first target actually was treated rather cordially.

Biggest question is what Comstar does, off the top of my head didnt Blake promise Kerensky that Comstar would be waiting for his return or something?

No, their last words were said in anger.
Even if Jerome made such promises, they wouldn't have survived the centuries that followed.
ComStar likely has to choose similar to what they did with the Clans. Cooperate, and hope something good happens later. Their force is interesting, but still tiny compared to what the SLDF chucks around in your setup. And they won't have a Focht to lead them, yet. And honestly, rating any of them as 'veteran' or 'elite' was total nonsense then, would be even more so in the 3030s.

Other wrinkles: a proper spy mission could be a big problem for ROM. They couldn't defeat Wolfnet; let's call that a stalemate. If they actually began as an intelligence mission, then it's possible they'll have infiltrated ComStar, given enough time. Especially if the Dragoons don't show up "loud". In canon, they appear suddenly as 5 regiments of weird Mechs out of nowhere. Instant headlines. Total focus on them immediately.
If instead they just drift in from the Periphery on various traders, ROM won't even know there's a new intel organization to counteract until they start doing stuff.


So, with those conditions, 0% chance of the IS stopping the SLDF from doing pretty much anything it wants.
Thought with the numbers of 4 Clans, they'd have a hard time conquering everyone.
If you give them the numbers of 17 Clans, then the reconquest of the IS is a footnote, with a timeline purely dictated by geography, not any military obstacle.

[Daryk]

Thinking about it a little more, the SLDF would also use things the clans never did.  Like Bugeyes for intel gathering (possibly obviating the need for the Dragoons at all), and LAMs.  LAMs with clan ER Large Lasers (or even Pulse Lasers, not to mention PPCs) would be pretty much unbeatable with 3025 tech.  Inner Sphere logistics advantages evaporate under those conditions.

[Takiro]

Well what happened with the Wolverines or shall I say there SLDF equivalent? Lets call them the Minnesota Tribe still. Basically a bunch of Star Leaguers say screw this and we are heading back. They get crushed or semi crushed in the process but some make it back as our Minnesota Tribe. Does ComStar get in touch with them?

I still say this SLDF in Exile wouldn't be as large as the Clans under this simple swap but there is ways they could grow perhaps larger than their canon allegory. They could rescue or abduct folks over the centuries adding them to their numbers. A Special Force authorized by the Protector could operate past the Caliban Nebula perhaps right up to the Periphery just sweeping up those deemed worthy.

Plus their colonization and exploration effort might be more widespread and successful then the Clans. Say they confine their activities those areas behind the Caliban Nebula there could be other undiscovered worlds further out that the Clans wouldn't want to find in the first place. The Grand Council likely wanted to keep everyone close for security concerns and control which would be factors to the expansion of this Star League in Exile.

You could have a Leo Showers type figure who manipulates the SLDF into the conflict with a similar discovery by an Outbound Light. Perhaps the new Federated Commonwealth is viewed as a direct threat by them and likely to form a new Star League. Granted this grand deception would be harder to pull off if a Wolf Dragoon type force was continuously feeding accurate information back to the Homeworlds. Less shocking than the data by Showers who expertly played upon the fears of many.

Got no problem with superior SLDF technology (weapons, warships, etc.) being bought to bear in this effort and I agree that unlike the Clans they would bring as large a force as they could muster. 80% could be low. Trying to aid the FRR could be tricky. Why not just try to invade one power, like the Draconis Combine? You may also be able to incorporate the Outworlds Alliance. Or the Lyran Commonwealth? You could pre-position bases in the old Rim Worlds Republic before you strike in much the same way General Kerensky did versus the Usurper.

[R.Tempest]

 Time for the SLDF to invade (if they were ready) would have been 3039. The Lyrans & the Federated Suns were at war with the Combine. The League was in more of a shambles than usual & the Capellans were still in desperation rebuild mode. Even the Magistracy of Canopus would be wide open.
 The AFFC was confused enough when they encountered the DCMS Ghost Regiments (equipped with some Star League mech's from Comstar). Imagine them encountering actual SLDF mech's at the same time.

[RifleMech]

An SLDF-with-Clantech invasion would have something else going for it- without the Clans' caste system they'd treat civilians better and might even be willing to share some of their non-military technology to improve planets they conquered.  That would present a huge lure to local governments.

Besides the fact that plan didn't work leading up to the Reunification War, why not start with it and see what happens? They might get some planets to join.

(snip)

So, with those conditions, 0% chance of the IS stopping the SLDF from doing pretty much anything it wants.
Thought with the numbers of 4 Clans, they'd have a hard time conquering everyone.
If you give them the numbers of 17 Clans, then the reconquest of the IS is a footnote, with a timeline purely dictated by geography, not any military obstacle.

I don't think the SLDF would have been as militarily strong as the Clans. Unless there was still a 2nd Exodus the Pentagon Wars would have been even worse as there would have been more combatants. We don't know when they would have ended or when. Depending on how long it takes Kerensky to win against the other Pentagon Powers and rebuild would make a difference in how big the SLDF would be when it returns. It'd also make a difference in how much advanced tech they used. They Clans still used a lot of leftover SLDF equipment. I think in this scenario the ratio of SLDF tech to Clan would be even higher.

The SLDF would have devoted more resources toward the civilian population which would reduce the size of the military.  I'm also not sure the quality of the troops would could be the same as the Clans. They wouldn't be training since birth. I also don't think they would have had the genetics programs the Clans did. So no Elementals. Battle Armor, yes but not genetically bred warriors.  I'm sure they'd still have a Gun Slinger Program but not all of their troops would have gone through it. They didn't originally. I can't see them all going through it now. All of those things would reduce the effectiveness of their military. That all means that the IS would have a greater chance of resisting them.

[Maingunnery]

I can only see the SLDF remaining if the Pentagon civil war is prevented, and if that is the case then the new SLDF can be bigger.

[RifleMech]

I can only see the SLDF remaining if the Pentagon civil war is prevented, and if that is the case then the new SLDF can be bigger.

I can see their being a second exodus for the "True" SLDF. I can also see the "True" SLDF staying and eventually winning. Either way a Kerensky wins and gets to call his faction whatever he wants to cause he won.

[Paul]

I don't think the SLDF would have been as militarily strong as the Clans.

Doesnt matter. Its a starting premise of the original post, so your objection isnt relevant.

It would be easy though. The Clans have a constant drag on their military assets from duelling. The SLDF wouldnt. That by itself permits a huge military. Further, there wouldnt be the technological stagnation that occurred with the Clans.
Frankly, *just* giving them what the Clans had in 3050 is incredibly generous to the IS' non-existent chances to resist.

Ill agree with you that there wouldnt be Elemental phenotypes. This doesnt prevent the IS from fielding every class of battle armor by the regiment in the 3060s, so its a non-issue.

[Question]

I didnt give them the full forces of all 17 clans because that would have resulted in them steamrolling the IS, considering how far 4 clans got with the numbers and weaknesses they had. Its debatable how big the SLDF could be compared to all the clans combined...the clans focused on their military at the expensive of almost everything else, they dont even have a regular economy or allow private ownership. More resources would probably have been devoted to trying to setup proper colonies.

Not quite sure how the numbers match up. I think each of the original 4 clans averaged about 12 clusters for the first wave? In comparison the DCMS had 99 mech regiments I think. Thats still a large gap.

I think the eugenics program could still happen, but on a smaller scale, intended for elite units, special forces, etc. Since there was no way the SLDF would be able to compete with the IS in terms of numbers, they knew they would have to make up for it with quality (and tech).

Arent there some canon rumours that some survivors of clan wolverine managed to infiltrate comstar or something?

[RifleMech]

Doesnt matter. Its a starting premise of the original post, so your objection isnt relevant.

It would be easy though. The Clans have a constant drag on their military assets from duelling. The SLDF wouldnt. That by itself permits a huge military. Further, there wouldnt be the technological stagnation that occurred with the Clans.
Frankly, *just* giving them what the Clans had in 3050 is incredibly generous to the IS' non-existent chances to resist.

Ill agree with you that there wouldnt be Elemental phenotypes. This doesnt prevent the IS from fielding every class of battle armor by the regiment in the 3060s, so its a non-issue.

I don't know. The original post said the same number of mechs. SLDF formations are different from the Clans so I'm not sure how they can have the same number of mechs. A SLDF Mech Company is 12 Mechs. The Clan's use Binaries of 10 or Trinaries of 15. And then there's Fighter Formations and so on. That's going to change the number or forces facing the IS.

Even if they got the formations worked out, the SLDF would have the constant drag of their civilian population. Most of the resources would be going to support the civilians rather than the Military. As for technological stagnation, a lot of technologies focus would also be on the civilians. That would slow technological progress. And that's presuming there was a Second Exodus that saved SLDF research.

And then I'm still not sure the SLDF would steam roll the IS. Firstly they're announcing they're coming and their intentions. By announcing their intentions the SLDF is giving the IS time to move their forces to confront them. The Clans just invaded. The IS had to scramble to get forces moved to fight the Clans. So right from the start the SLDF is tying a hand behind their back.

Also the SLDF couldn't take the entire IS when they left. Any two Houses, sure but not all five. Add in Comstar and the Periphery Realms, and there's no way a pre-Exodus SLDF could win. I don't think a returning SLDF could win either. Not even with a tech advantage. There's just too many defenders, with advanced warning for them to overcome.

[Paul]

I didnt give them the full forces of all 17 clans because that would have resulted in them steamrolling the IS, considering how far 4 clans got with the numbers and weaknesses they had.

Agreed.

Its debatable how big the SLDF could be compared to all the clans combined...the clans focused on their military at the expensive of almost everything else, they dont even have a regular economy or allow private ownership. More resources would probably have been devoted to trying to setup proper colonies.

Yes, and a united SLDF would also not lose literally hundreds of Mechs each year to Trials.

Not quite sure how the numbers match up. I think each of the original 4 clans averaged about 12 clusters for the first wave? In comparison the DCMS had 99 mech regiments I think. Thats still a large gap.

12 galaxies.
Assuming an average  of 4 clusters per formation, that's about 200 x 12 = 2400 = 24 regiments per Clan, or 96 for all 4 Clans.
Back of the envelop math there. There's enough phonebook TO&E data that can be used to get more precise numbers, but I think a ballpark figure of 100 regiments will be close.

I think the eugenics program could still happen, but on a smaller scale, intended for elite units, special forces, etc. Since there was no way the SLDF would be able to compete with the IS in terms of numbers, they knew they would have to make up for it with quality (and tech).

Well, let's make sure we're talking about the same thing.
Eugenics is a program intended to "improve" the gene pool, through selective breeding.
Your 'smaller scale' suggestion would be impossible, unless you're suggesting they artificially create a bunch of kids with no, err, career path beyond those special forces. There's some moral problems with that approach that require a pretty significant change to how the SL was.
If you instead mean elective upgrades, well, then it'll look more like what the Manei Domini and the Society did.

Arent there some canon rumours that some survivors of clan wolverine managed to infiltrate comstar or something?

Yes. Those rumors exist.

SLDF formations are different from the Clans so I'm not sure how they can have the same number of mechs. A SLDF Mech Company is 12 Mechs. The Clan's use Binaries of 10 or Trinaries of 15. And then there's Fighter Formations and so on. That's going to change the number or forces facing the IS.

...
I'm struggling to understand the problem here. Are you suggesting that this new SLDF would look at a pile of, say, 90 Mechs (2 Clusters) and go "Well, we can't use those. 90's not divisible by 4. It's just impossible."
Surely not?

Most of the resources would be going to support the civilians rather than the Military.

You... do know that the Clans have civilians as well, right?

As for technological stagnation, a lot of technologies focus would also be on the civilians. That would slow technological progress.

Of course not. If anything, it would amplify it. The Clans artificially hamstrung their development by initially only focussing on weapons development, and then further constraining it to just genetic development. If you take all those balls and chains off, you get the normal interaction where civilian tech amplifies military tech, and military tech amplifies civilian tech. There's literal all of human history that demonstrates that process.

And that's presuming there was a Second Exodus that saved SLDF research.

Well, since the base starting assumption you choose to ignore is 100 regiments worth of Clan Mechs, I think you're going to have to accept that within the confines of this thread, it didn't get bad.

And then I'm still not sure the SLDF would steam roll the IS. Firstly they're announcing they're coming and their intentions. By announcing their intentions the SLDF is giving the IS time to move their forces to confront them. The Clans just invaded. The IS had to scramble to get forces moved to fight the Clans. So right from the start the SLDF is tying a hand behind their back.

Nope. Let em remind you:
"At the start of the invasion, the SLDF announces they are restoring the Star league with Terra as the capital. "

So, there's no time to marshall forces, since the first contact the IS have is when the invasion is underway. Just like with the Clans.

Also the SLDF couldn't take the entire IS when they left. Any two Houses, sure but not all five.

A few things have changed since then. Perhaps that's not a useful comparison.

There's just too many defenders

If they have to start with 100 regiments of Clan tech Mechs, plus the WarSHips of those 4 Clans, I would agree that they can't wipe out the IS in detail.
But since their objective share is much more humble, I don't see a way for them to be stopped in the 3030s. The IS doesn't have enough. And the SLDF is coming in with proper intel. So even if they don't wait for the inevitability of the war of 3039, as long as they stomp on either the LC or the DC, they win. The Commonwealth ensured that the FWL and CC are a non-factor, and if they begin a year or two after the 4th Succession War, even the AFFC hasn't had time to recover yet.

[Takiro]

Agreed the SLDF would not lose hundreds of Mechs a year on Combat Trials but they would not be a completely martial society.

If not a Pentagon Civil War, there would be no others?? The factions from that time completely disappear? What of a Wolverine Annihilation resulting in a Minnesota Tribe? How about a Kerensky Civil War?

What I am saying the constant infighting does serve a function as a pressure release valve for internal discontent.

And while equipment may indeed be plentiful Mechwarriors may not be...

It is your question but if you are looking for a certain answer I will say no more..

[ANS Kamas P81]

One thing to consider is the very origin of the force - I strongly disagree with those who think the SLDF would be even smaller than the Clans.  Remember, it's the SLDF - they maintained their identity the entire time and didn't fragment in the Pentagon Worlds and decimate each other in a microcosm of the Inner Sphere.  They stayed true, stayed united, and didn't have to start off from the tiniest fraction of survivors.  It's also been mentioned that their living conditions and relations with each other would have no caste system and be pretty egalitarian, thus I'd assume a generally positive birth rate.

At that point, size is simply a compound interest problem.  Let's assume a 0.5% growth rate, average, across the board.  This is pitting SLDF medical tech and birth rates against 'oh dear god that plant just ate Tim' environment and death rates.  Starting with a mere six million people, and arriving in the Cluster at 2786.  Until 3050, that's 264 years at that growth rate...22,386,776 people in the Cluster.  If we go with the 1.1% that Earth averages, you end up at 107,759,688.  And if the SLDF can maintain its medical tech, babymakers go for the max, and you can achieve a sustained 2% population growth?  1.12 billion people.

Not MASSIVE forces, but far more than enough to make a major push into the Inner Sphere and - with even 1% of that being combatants - on the low end you've got more mechwarriors than any other state in the Inner Sphere (show me anyone with 223,000 mechs, MAYBE Cornstar) and on the high end well...you don't even need to wargame that one out.

The SLDF very much is likely to steamroll anything it comes across.  The only thing that would put any sort of dent in them is the Periphery, and it's a damned shame they came in from map-north - if the SLDF had returned through the Taurian/Magistracy corridor, nukes would have been flung like poo from an amphetamine-soaked circus monkey.  "I'm sorry you're who again, here to do what again?  Have fifty megatons of oh hell no."

[The_Big_Red_Bear]

I think it's been too long.

Even if they returned to the IS as the Star Leage Defense Force, they would get kicked back by the locals. Imagine it's the year 900 AD, and a Roman Legion showed up in France and was like

"Don't worry friends. We're coming to save you. Just stand aside, we're on our way to Italy. BTW, please don't resist us on the way through."

The feudal lords they passed, would inevitably fight them. Even if the locals had some real love for the old Roman Empire, these people arriving would defy their expectations, because they're human. Warm greetings would turn sour as cultures clashed.

Also, over the centuries, both the Inner Sphere and SLDF would change. In the cannon, the SLDF became the Clans, sure, but even if they stayed closer to what they were, they would be as different to the locals as Romans were different in the historical lens, to Byzantines. Nothing stays in a bubble. There would be a military conflict, it would blow up in everyone's faces if their goal was to head to Terra, and basically reunite the Inner Sphere. The people of the Inner Sphere, aren't the same people Kerensky was protecting anymore.

And the SLDF, wouldn't be the same SLDF, that they were before.

Comstar would have internal divisions too, because how would they fit into all this? Nothing would come out on the other side but misery and sadness. And once the war starts up, once that SLDF troops put boots on the ground on their way to Terra, and kill a bunch of folks, watch just how sour people's opinions can become. Suddenly it goes from uncertainty, but a want to accept the SLDF, to mistrust and hostility.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Besides the fact that plan didn't work leading up to the Reunification War, why not start with it and see what happens? They might get some planets to join.

There are two huge differences. The Periphery states already had planets that were in very good shape and weren't being offered upgrades by the Star League after being ground down by the Succession Wars (in fact, the whole reason for the Reunification Wars was to ship resources back to the Inner Sphere). And the Periphery hadn't spent three centuries glorifying the Star League as a golden age.

[Paul]

Agreed the SLDF would not lose hundreds of Mechs a year on Combat Trials but they would not be a completely martial society.

Sure, but even that is huge. The waste of the Clans is likely several hundred Mechs per year (and ignoring the amount they repair).
But if we get conservative, and say that with all their activities, they net only 100 Mechs a year, for 200 years, that's 20,000 Mechs. 200 regiments. On top of the production they used to get their numbers to where they were at by 3050.

If not a Pentagon Civil War, there would be no others?? The factions from that time completely disappear? What of a Wolverine Annihilation resulting in a Minnesota Tribe? How about a Kerensky Civil War?

Given that the OP only wants them to have the ground forces of 4 Clans, I'd say that's more than covered. In fact, I'd say their low numbers would be an indication of some enormous drag on their numbers, given how easily we can justify a force massively larger.

thus I'd assume a generally positive birth rate.

I'd encourage anyone not to look at that part of the universe. Ever.
The Clans field a force in numbers that exceeds the entire Inner Sphere. Their supporting population is 1 billion. The Inner SPhere has 1 trillion.
Economics in BT is completely broken, in such a massive, severe way that any argument that even touches on population numbers is fruit from the poisonous tree.

The only thing that would put any sort of dent in them is the Periphery, and it's a damned shame they came in from map-north - if the SLDF had returned through the Taurian/Magistracy corridor, nukes would have been flung like poo from an amphetamine-soaked circus monkey.  "I'm sorry you're who again, here to do what again?  Have fifty megatons of oh hell no."

That didn't help them the last time, and it's not like the SL won't have access to nukes. Meanwhile, even those Periphery states are but a shadow of what they were in the 2700s.

[Daryk]

As far as nukes, like I said way up thread: the SLDF won't be the first ones to use them, but they will certainly be the LAST.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

The Taurians would probably use nukes. The broadcasts of the SLDF's response would probably convince everyone but Romaino and Takashi that doing so themselves would be an exceedingly bad idea.

[Daryk]

Yep, any "death before dishonor" types would absolutely get their wish.

[Crimson Dawn]

The clans was the way the SLDF prevented the succession war from essentially occurring between the various people in the SLDF.  How did this SLDF survive the fighting and how well off are they?  The OP has made the scenario specifying that they have the same number of mechs but are we to assume that the mechs are the same quality and the training as good and all of that?  Did the SLDF nearly destroy itself in a civil war and they rebuilt themselves or are we going to pretend that the conflicts that led to the creation of the clans just diapated without incident?

For instance we are talking about how mechs are not lost to trials but we are also forgetting that because there are no trials a unified SLDF has little incentive for pushing military technology.  On top of that the SLDF would likely not have the same culture of putting as much importance on the military and its technology since there are no pressing threats to fight that necessitate the innovation in military technology.

Depending on how things work out maybe the SLDF has the same number of mechs as the clans had active but the SLDF is merely using star league designs with star league era tech rather than clan tech.

[AlphaMirage]

+1 to Above.  Kerensky took the SLDF away to stop them from being belligerents in the impending Succession Wars that would surely get out of hand. 

His sons made the Clans to deal with the fact that the various members of the SLDF were fighting one another over old affiliations and being demobilized and some resented that status.

What happened to Nicholas and Andery?
Why would the SLDF have advanced new military tech when they already have the best stuff in the Universe and weren't fighting each other?

I could see a more peaceable route but the SLDF was done as soon as the Exodus Fleet set off for the Core and something needed to replace it.  There are many interesting questions about how the Clans could have evolved differently

[HyperionCormyr]

Consider the option of the Kerenskys spreading the SDLF out into garrisons surrounding the IS over the centuries with several divisions building up over time at each location and when a specific goal line is reached, they move in to straighten everyone out with overwhelming force.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

How about Nick dies, Andery survives. The SLDF mostly remains intact, but several holdout factions remain as smaller powers. The last of them are finally conquered, leading to the decision that the time is now right to return and reunite the Inner Sphere and also providing the necessary combat experience for the campaign.