Alternate Fourth Succession War

[Hellraiser]

I imagine that half the Dieron district and 100% of Rasalhague would become part of the LC and a block of the Benjamin district (Buckminster) would be lost to the LC as well. The other half of Dieron, most of the rest of Benjamin & Galedon would be absorbed by the FS. That would leave a rump of Pesht, and remnants of the Benjamin & Galedon districts left.

Both the AFFS & LCAF would be gutted however barely capable of defending against the FWL & CC but only just.

This is likely too extreme at the other end of the spectrum.

I don't believe the DC can stop the AFFC from taking a big bite out of Dieron, but, at the same time, to take the entire DCMS out your talking about moving 75% or more of the AFFC into the DC. 

While the FWL & CC are not "allies" really & don't "want" a war with the FC, the reality is if those defenses get too thin, they ARE going to get opportunistic & go offensive.

The AFFC does NOT want a 3 Front war where the odds are FAR too close.
   They did a good job in the 4th SW but that mostly involved the #1 Army picking on the #5 Army, while the #3 tied up most of #2 & the DC still had a field day gobbling up worlds from the FS even w/ distractions of the Goons.

I think the real key in this war is that with forces coming from both sides the DC will lose as much as the 4th SW maybe a bit more even w/ the AFFC not being prepared, but its WHERE it comes from.
Instead of it being Tamar region, it's Dieron region that eats it.

Basically what the FC wanted in 3039 gets done "successfully" a dozen years earlier.

Hmm, it also likely means the wedding isn't right when Mel turns 18 either.
Maybe delayed a couple years to deal w/ PTSD from kiddnapping?  (And no one is invited?)
Maybe delayed 7 years & timed on the eve of the real 4SW in 3034?   (and you get "the Toast" 2.0)

[Dahmin_Toran]

Yeah I think a lot of people underestimate the damage the DCMS will inflict in a defensive war in the Dieron District.

[Arkansas Warrior]

I could see the FRR rebels taking the opportunity and jumping the gun as well, not so much allowing the LC to make gains in the Rasalhague District as a rump version of the FRR managing to break away in 3027/8 as DCMS troops flood toward Dieron.  Without ComStar to broker it, and the LC to off worlds too, it would probably be a smaller, bloodier, less successful rebellion though.  Maybe leading to this reality’s equivalent of the St. Ives Compact.

[Hellraiser]

Yeah I think a lot of people underestimate the damage the DCMS will inflict in a defensive war in the Dieron District.

In 3025 the entirety of the Dieron District's 5 Sectors hosted 19 Mech Regiments (18 + 2 Bats)

This was prior to the creation of the Ryuken however, but they were not all near Dieron, sooo,  lets add 2 to that figure.
 (It was 6 total but they also lost one pre-4SW IIRC and I'm already rounding up a battalion above, so even giving them 2 is a stretch.)

So call it 21 Mech Regiments across 5 sectors.  (My premise is that they would only lose 3 of the 5)

Focus them on just the 3 sectors & your only facing 15ish regiments, not 21.

The AFFC nations had actively mobilized 60 Mech regiments for Galahad-27  (And several hundred conventional).

This is out of their 185?  Total Mech Regiments.   So 2/3 of the AFFC is still available & is sitting on the border available to repel attacks or mobilize if given time.

So before a shot is fired, your looking at equal or better #s "in the area", on the move, and the AFFC has the attacker advantage of being able to drop concentrated forces.

Between some shifting of Galahad resources & activations near Terra you can easily double your forces available in the area.

In the time it takes the DCMS to react & try to go on the offensive, you give that same amount of time to the AFFC, and they have a LOT more to draw on.

The AFFC can position so that the DCMS is going to be facing 3-1 odds just like the CC did.  And they will get smashed.

Sure, it will only be 1/3 of the total troops in Dieron District in that first wave but those troops are still gone at that point.

Rinse Repeat & stand by as more troops roll into the sector from both sides.

[Dahmin_Toran]

But they may lose Robinson at that point, plus what if Michael Hasek-Davion keeps his troops on the Capellan troops.

[Arkansas Warrior]

Michael *should* keep his March troops in his March.  The CC is weak, but still opportunistic.  You don’t want to denude that border.


I’m confused as to why you think the FS would lose Robinson while leapfrogging successive waves forward into the DC.

[Hellraiser]

But they may lose Robinson at that point, plus what if Michael Hasek-Davion keeps his troops on the Capellan troops.

Michael *should* keep his March troops in his March.  The CC is weak, but still opportunistic.  You don’t want to denude that border.

I’m confused as to why you think the FS would lose Robinson while leapfrogging successive waves forward into the DC.

Lose it to what?  Here's some background.

Defenses of Robinson...  (This is more than the DC keeps on Dieron in the same year)
3025
Kell Hounds (one battalion)
First Robinson Rangers
Robinson Draconis March Militia

3028 - Robinson DMM

  KH have moved back to LC & are on Styx as the premise of this scenario.

The 1st RR Ranger were mobilized to defend Edwards a world in striking range of both the CC & DC for the 4th SW.
We do NOT know if they were part of Galahad-26/27 or not so maybe they are still on Robinson.
Either way at the very least there is a full MM RCT still on Robinson.  (At WORST that is a speedbump/holding force to slow at invader that reaches Robinson.

Not that Robinson is even "close" to the border in 3027.  This is pre-losses of the 4th SW.




Getting back to Edwards w/ the 1RR.

Defenses & Location

3025
Twelfth Vegan Rangers (4 Regiments)

3028
Second Ceti Hussars RCT
First Kestrel Grenadiers
First Robinson Rangers

Pre-4SW it has 4 Merc Regiments that get used in the 4SW.
During the 4SW it has 3 crack regiments/RCTs in reinforcement range of either border.
3 Regiments or 4, mobilized in 4th, not sure about 3027, but, they probably aren't there napping.






Finally, just because it came up while checking on Robinson & it's a solid example.

2nd Robinson Rangers  -  Stationed on Breed.
Attacked on June 7th by the 11th Benjamin Regulars at the height of the 4th SW,  took 12 days to boot them off world on June 19th.
On top of the massive Goon's losses........... If this is an example of the DCMS when the FS border is "weak", I would hate to think of what would happen when they attack the AFFS border BEFORE they move many units to attack the CC in 3028.



As for Michael's control of troops.......
What does Michael have the power to Veto Hanse over?
This isn't the FWL with the Home Defense Act.
"MAYBE" the Syrtis Brigade (3 RCTs),   "MAYBE" the CapMarchMilitia (Not offensive troops anyway).

Unless Michael has the power to stop an order moving the 5th Crucis Lancers or 2nd Chisholm's Raiders off Kathil, then he's not stopping the kind of troops that would be getting used.
   (Note, they WERE moved for the 4th SW/Galahad-28... soooo...  I'm going with he can't actually stop an order)


On a side note, I was looking at how the 3 Galahad's "ramped up" and I can't seem to find a total # of Mech Regiments used by the AFFS in the 4SW.
My books are stored & I can't find it on Sarna.

Galahad-26
FS - 10 Mech Regiments
LC - 0 Mech Regiments

Galahad-27
FS - 30 Mech Regiments
LC - 30 Mech Regiments

Galahad-28
FS - ?? Mech Regiments
LC - 40 Mech Regiments