If it's all about the writers, then fan theories don't matter.
At the end of the day, while fun to do, fan theorycrafting is a kind of mental masturbation. You can use all your knowledge of accumulated setting lore, or apply RL knowledge to a fictional setting, but if the authors decide to make a tiny faction to get 11 mech regiments from their nether-zones, or get a "glorious national rebirth", or just came back from the dead because of the narrative they choose for the setting, or other reasons, its all for nothing.
You can explain all the reasons why the Canopian expedition could fail or succeed, but if the writers decide that the opposite of what you said happens, you can not do anything. Heck, the writer can even create another possibilities that you didn't even considered. Maybe the canopian Mary Sue and company meet the exiled WoB Shadow Divisions while in route, and they jointly decide to go to fight against the Clan Wolf Empire. Only the writers, and Line Director knows.
Sorry if i sound a bit nihilistic, but after following the development of a number of fictional universes and how the writers affected those universes with their choices, it made me a bit jaded.