The Capellans preserved their manpowerr before the Jihad by nuking first and ask questions later. Not exactly the best way to prepare for future fights.
You're missing the point entirely. The Capellans were able to squirrel away more of their pre-Republic war material because they didn't work with Stone, who we know sent forces into the other Houses to ensure they were complying with the drawdowns.
Also I would say loosing the planet Liao which was NOT a Republic possesion after the Jihad does sound rather humiliating. And they lost their Crusade against a then weakened Republic when one old Mechwarrior who was already dying wrecked havoc behind the lines. Heck it nearly cost Sun Tzu his one heir.
And again: Sun-Tzu being a shrewd political leader (unequivocally true) and Sun-Tzu unable to defeat the Republic (also true) aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Clever/shrewd people can still
lose, and it doesn't take those qualities away from them when they do.
Though I agree it made the Confederation stronger in the end but without Gray Monday we will never know how a 3rd round would have looked like. Then again the Republic had drawn down their military so much it might have been more leaning in the Confederations favor.
Irrelevant, since it didn't happen.
But who is to say the Confederation will come out alive in the end? The Star League needs it's bogeyman and the Capellans are the perfect target
Also irrelevant, since Sun-Tzu is dead.