An Alternative to the 4th Sucession War

[Grim_Reaper]

Just have all the House Leaders in 3025 sit down to decide things over a game of Poker on Terra

now beyond who would win what are we likely to see happen over the course of the game

I predict Hanse playing as smooth as Lando Callrasian in his own books
Jonas Marik getting confued over what beats what
Takashi Kurita being a strong but unfortanetly inflexible player (doesnt know when to fold)
Max Liao somehow trying to cheat
Katrina Steiner backing Hanse's bigger bets

[IndyRI]

Its Hanse.... seriously, is there even a question?

[Jaim Magnus]

Oddly enough I'd have to go with Janos Marik.  I mean, look how long he ruled the FWL.  He's gotta know a thing or two about misdirection and bluffing.

[HuronWarrior]

Oddly enough I'd have to go with Janos Marik.  I mean, look how long he ruled the FWL.  He's gotta know a thing or two about misdirection and bluffing.

^this right here. Half of Free Worlds politics is raising the stakes and bluffing.

The real question is if ComStar stacked the deck.

[Minemech]

 In a game of poker between those 5 I will have to vote for Janos Marik.

[Grim_Reaper]

Oddly enough I'd have to go with Janos Marik.  I mean, look how long he ruled the FWL.  He's gotta know a thing or two about misdirection and bluffing.

but how effectively did he do it?
frankly he would loose if he was up against Cranston Snord.
if any f the five int he game was a master of misdirection it was Hanse

[HuronWarrior]

Hanse didn't use misdirection, his foes caught a case of the dumb and acted like his military build ups at the exact same time as a alliance were ok.
If leaders had been switched around, Hanse probably could have conquered the FedSuns with the CCAF.

[JPArbiter]

Katrina Steiner, who would turn things over to her daughter Melissa, who in addition to being a fine piece of tail (and thus a great distraction), is quite skilled at games of chance.

[Kit deSummersville]

If it's Indian Poker, I think Janos has an unfair advantage.

[Minemech]

 Janos was fairly effective at misdirection. Isn't it funny that when the League covertly raided House Davion in Capellan colors that the improved proformance of Capellan units is mentioned? The Capellans were admittingly improving themselves, but it appears no one appears to have realized that the League was also raiding in Capellan colors.

[RGCavScout]

The real question is if ComStar stacked the deck.

Absolutely!  Unfortunately, the Comstar Adept who prepared the deck was one of Hanse's people.

[Rainbow 6]

I'm voting for Katrina Steiner, i figure she'd learnt from the Kell's during her time as the Red Corsair.

[House Davie Merc]

Hanse would win because Katrina would distract everyone else for him .

She knows that if he wins,  she wins .    ;)

[IndyRI]

^Which brings up an interesting question. Is cross table talk allowed in said "Poker Game of Succession"?

[Kit deSummersville]

Takashi Kurita "Max, are you playing footsy with me?"
Hanse Davion "Hey, no cheating!"
Max Liao "I would never cheat!"
Katrina Steiner, raising an eyebrow "Who are you kidding?"
Janos Marik "No, that was me. I left my room key for you at the desk." Wink.

[Nibs]

Katrina Steiner, who would turn things over to her daughter Melissa, who in addition to being a fine piece of tail (and thus a great distraction), is quite skilled at games of chance.

But she's fifteen in 3025!  ???

[IndyRI]

^For our Southern members: he's implying that it is wrong and disgusting.

 ;D

DISCLAIMER: IndyRI is in fact from the South and realizes that, though we are all filthy, goat-loving hicks, at least we aren't Yankees. That is all.

[Kit deSummersville]

But she's fifteen in 3025!  ???

Methinks you're confusing Katrina and her daughter Melissa.

[Nibs]

Methinks you're confusing Katrina and her daughter Melissa.

I thought he was referring to Melissa?  ???

I could be wrong. It's happened once before.

[Grim_Reaper]

Hanse didn't use misdirection, his foes caught a case of the dumb and acted like his military build ups at the exact same time as a alliance were ok.
If leaders had been switched around, Hanse probably could have conquered the FedSuns with the CCAF.

Hanse most certainly was known for Misdirection. for the fourth SW he did have those 'military exercises' running for several years luring other nations into thinking 'Oh there just doing their annual wargames again' (king of in your face misdirection there). not to mention feeding all that false into to Michael Hassek-Davion which he knew would get passed onto Max Liao (with some alterations by Micheal of course)
everything that Hanse had going for him in the fourth SW he had been setting up for years with one exception, the defection of the Wolf Dragoons from the DC to the FS after the WD had mauled the DC forces along that border
then during the 3rd SW there was how he had a practice of sending in Merc Units into fake objectives drawing away enemy troops so his house forces could get the real objectives.

[Grim_Reaper]

I'm voting for Katrina Steiner, i figure she'd learnt from the Kell's during her time as the Red Corsair.

good point, not to mention she has the biggest bankrole

[JPArbiter]

But she's fifteen in 3025!  ???

this is an alternative to the 4th succession war, which started ON Hanse Davion's and Melissa Steiner's wedding day shortly after she turned 18.

[Grim_Reaper]

this is an alternative to the 4th succession war, which started ON Hanse Davion's and Melissa Steiner's wedding day shortly after she turned 18.

who said it starts on the wedding day itself?
reread the opening post again

Just have all the House Leaders in 3025 sit down to decide things over a game of Poker on Terra

[avon1985]

I'm voting for Hanse during the game because
He'd have a spy watching Lios hand
He'd arrange for message of some internal trouble to arrive to distract Marik
He'd have Jaimie Wolf sitting in a corner to scare Kurita
And he's already promised Stiener half the profits when he wins.

Oh and all this would be set in motion at least two years before the game was to be played.

[IndyRI]

To be fair, Max might simply win by putting a body double in Hanse's place and playing both hands in his favor....

[Minemech]

 May I ask the consequences to each side if they lose?

[HuronWarrior]

Hanse most certainly was known for Misdirection. for the fourth SW he did have those 'military exercises' running for several years luring other nations into thinking 'Oh there just doing their annual wargames again' (king of in your face misdirection there). not to mention feeding all that false into to Michael Hassek-Davion which he knew would get passed onto Max Liao (with some alterations by Micheal of course)

Nothing Hanse did was misdirection, it was playing into the stupidity of his enemies.
He was conducting war games with mass formations in the Terran corridor, and that's where he launched his operation.
Misdirection would have been conducting the war games there and then striking through the St. Ives Commonality. I mean for the love of bob, these nations had been at war for the last 3 centuries non-stop, it was obvious what was going on.

His whole plan was basically counting on Max being so dumb that he didn't need to actually misdirect him. And it worked (Max was dumb) flawlessly.

The authors did a rather poor job portraying Hanse as a military mastermind when his military and industry were enormous compared to his enemies, and his enemies were led by the criminally insane and morons. As it was the only intelligent thing Hanse knew what to do was NOT screw up having the advantage in every aspect of the war.

[Grim_Reaper]

May I ask the consequences to each side if they lose?

chances are that Hanse is betting with Chips representing Capellean Worlds  ;)

[Grim_Reaper]

Nothing Hanse did was misdirection, it was playing into the stupidity of his enemies.

Luring the Cappies into a false sense of Security by making them think the Invasion was only another training exercise isn't misdirection?
nor is providing false information through a known traitor to his own realm?

sure sounds like Misdirection to me.

i wouldn't sell Max short but frankly Hanse just Outfoxed him

[HuronWarrior]

Plot induced stupidity isn't misdirection. Their nations had been in almost non-stop war for the last three centuries, there is no reason the training exercises in a critically important sector on the eve on an alliance making marriage shouldn't have raise some eyebrows.

There was nothing sneaky about it, Max was simply written as a moron.

[Minemech]

chances are that Hanse is betting with Chips representing Capellean Worlds  ;)

The problem with this scenario is that if Hanse and Katrina cash their chips out at the start, they gain 40% of the Confederation. Also what gains do powers like the Confederation make if they win, do they get the Capellan March, or all of House Davion? Hanse can live on Tharkad as far as the Capellans are concerned. If Janos wins can he get the Lyran Commonwealth?

[JPArbiter]

who said it starts on the wedding day itself?
reread the opening post again

Yeah, well I retconning it to Melissa being 18 and thus a fine piece of legal tail, who is good at poker

[Minemech]

Grim how about this game:


 All 5 Lords play poker with no one else present save the First Circuit. Each Lord's chips are given special colors with purple representing the League(With an Eagle on it), Red representing the Draconis Combine with a Dragon, Green with targets representing the Capellan Confederation, an incontrovertible blue representing the Lyran Commonwealth(With steiner fists on it) and an incontrovertible yellow with sword representing the Federated Suns.

Each chip represents a world controlled by that state and states start out with a number of chips equal to the number of worlds they already control. Contested worlds will be sorted out by the First Circuit so as to prevent bias...

Spoils(Worlds gained from other powers during gameplay) may be bet in the ante and throughout the game so as to prevent losing a world you already possess

 The Ante is 1 world

Powers may also trade colored chips so as to prevent awkward things such as the Combine chewing off the Confederation when it does not want to and the Confederation can hand off some blue in exchange.

 For a ten world penalty powers may leave the challenge, and powers that quit lose all of their spoils, but retain all of their losses; players cannot quit until at least 5 rounds have passed. The game lasts x hours to be decided by OP, or when their is no longer any opposition and is the style of the OPs choice. They rotate on dealer(Who of course shuffles) clockwise each time using a new deck, and the same with the cutting.

 In the end during the partition process the states will deduct their relative gains from losses to that specific power and the power with the net positive will gain that many worlds from the other (IE the Suns have 23 Capellan green chips, and the Confederation has 17 Sun chips so they do the simple math 23-17=6 Capellan worlds added to their portfolio).


Who do you think will make out best(Not by percentage, but actual gains)?

 is this better?

[Grim_Reaper]

up to the part of being able to trade colored chips is pretty much what i had in mind.

[five_corparty]

hmmm...
You know, this is harder than it sounds.  Hanse, I think, is the man to beat.  But, Janos... in the 2980s, he was at the top of his game.  20 years later, he was a broken man after Anton's rebellion.  but, still to remain on top in league politics...?  I think he'd be a surprisingly hard competitor.

takashi is out- I can't see him doing well in Poker, and Katrina, well, I think she'd suffer from thee problems a lot of players have when they have big bankrolls: they lose sight of the individual losses, which quickly mount up.  before she realized, katrina would have bet too much on too many losing hands, and even playing conservatively, she'd eventually get bumped out.  Which leaves ole mad max.  now, agreed, he's too crazy to WIN... but many professionaly players are having a tough time dealing with a new crop of younger players, guys who bid like mad in the beginning and play like money is worthless.  I see max playing like that, which would throw off the delicate games of bluffing and deception of the prime two.  And with Lioa truly LOATHING Davion, I see him taking shots at Hanse more often than Marik, causing him to have to ante higher in pots he wouldn't want too...  Lioa would be put out of the game, but I see Hanse being in a slightly weaker position.  The cards falling fairly equally after that and barring no major mistakes...

I'd have to give it to Janos afterr a long, grueling game.  huh.

[foxbat]

Hanse hands down of course... I'm neither a specialist, or even interested in poker, but in my eyes, the 4th SW looks like a galaxy wide poker game as it's been told.

[Iron Mongoose]

I think the consesus tends to be that Takashi is too direct and too stubborn to really be great here, which I agree with.  He's very sharp, and would hardly be a walk over, but in a game of guile, rather than force, I don't think he can take the top.  Kat, similarly, has a strength that is not applicable directly to poker, as a peace maker and a coalition builder.  Yes, she's also a strong woman and not to be under estimated, but it hardly seem to be her style to play that sort of a game, at least for thouse stakes.  She is a woman who retired, claiming she would never fight another war.

Of course, if the other three under estimated either Kat or Takashi, and they made a bold move, they could be in it.  Neither of them are idiots.

Hanse, Janos and Max are all more protrayed as master manipulators and experts at subterfuge, so seemingly they'd be the three to beat.  Personaly, I'd over Max and Janos the edge on their poker faces, since they live in such fear in their daily lives of betrayal by their own families and advisors that they need to learn to keep their feelings to them selves.  Max is slipping here, but with out the shock and stress of the war, he might be able to hold on to his sanity long enough for one night of poker.  Hanse did show him self a good actor, at Justen's trial and in that affair, but day to day he is with people he trusts and loves like Adrian Sortek and Quintus Allard, so he's got less need to practice that very personal sort of miss direction that Max would tend to thrive on. 

I don't think its a slam dunk for anyone.  When you look at the House Books, in 3025 every house had a pretty sharp figure at its helm, and I don't think you can count anyone out.

[Arkansas Warrior]

I voted for Hanse, but I think Katrina has the best shot of an upset.  After all, isn't she the woman who served in every branch of the military to better understand the troops?  Who, in addition to military commander and statesman, spent time as a pirate?  Seem like she'd have an edge on getting in the other players heads and adapting her game as necessary.  But then, Hanse had a pretty unique upbringing.  Just ask his Auntie Viv.  Might give him a lot of those same advantages, and/or the ability to counter Kat.

[Drop Bear]

Marik is good at local league games down the Pub, but has bean playing the locals too long, he'll expect the others to play like the gang down the pub he'll take a loss but has enough sense to walk away before it gets too big. Kurita good technical player with a solid stake but bad at reading the nuances of the other players, expect him to brake even. Laio will cheat but with a Sealed pack he'll have to mark cards during play and palm chips, but he'll be using a system devised for him by Davions Man who'll have fed him a bunch of wrong tells. Steiner good technical player with a good reading ability and a huge stake, but she's playing just to keep her hand in so her plan is to brake even or pull out a small win before handing things off to her girl who despite being Jail Bait is mature so she gets extra head games angles.

Davion FTW he gets lots of practice in the Suns local pub league and has seen the Tapes of the FWL Pub Leagues, he's primed Laio for the Fail and knows Kurita from their old friendly and not so friendly games, as to Steiner well each is treating the other as someone who's just their to make up numbers so their not playing each other but the rest of the table, his problems are some one has tampered with his stake, but he was expecting it so as pointed out by an other he's arranged for a lone from the Steiner Girls in return for a cut of the Pot.

at the end of the night Davion will walk away with a nice stack of L-Bills, a good fist full of M-Bills and a few K-Bills, he may be short a few D-Bills but will have made a good profit that he'll split with Steiner as agreed and when Laio gets home he'll find the eldest daughter has put a stop on his highest interest baring accounts cards and run off with her boyfriend and the dead to summer house.

[lucho]

Don't overlook Takashi's experience at manipulating his warlords; he was known as a shrewd politician. Due to Kurita culture, he probably has the best poker face of anybody at the table. Even so, everybody could probably predict his objectives two hands in advance.

I'm going with Janos Marik. While Hanse Davion is no slouch at subterfuge, Janos Marik is far more subtle, and a survivor to boot. He was the one that got the legislation passed giving all the power to son Thomas (who nobody even knew had been the heir for over a decade). Janos Marik was so subtle that he doesn't even get credit in the sourcebooks. Hanse was good, but very much an 'in your face' operator.

[Kit deSummersville]

I think in the end it would come down to two remaining lords with all their chips in the middle.

One would have a possible flush-straight, the other a possible full house. The final card would be flipped over, giving the jubilant ruler a full house and victory. There would be cheering and swearing and gnashing of teeth. Finally everyone would calm down and look at the table to find it devoid of both chips and the dealer.

The only thing left would be the cards and, sitting in the dealer's chair, a toaster.

[Guardsman]

I think in the end it would come down to two remaining lords with all their chips in the middle.

One would have a possible flush-straight, the other a possible full house. The final card would be flipped over, giving the jubilant ruler a full house and victory. There would be cheering and swearing and gnashing of teeth. Finally everyone would calm down and look at the table to find it devoid of both chips and the dealer.

The only thing left would be the cards and, sitting in the dealer's chair, a toaster.

 [notworthy]

[Arkansas Warrior]

I'm going with Janos Marik. While Hanse Davion is no slouch at subterfuge, Janos Marik is far more subtle, and a survivor to boot. He was the one that got the legislation passed giving all the power to son Thomas (who nobody even knew had been the heir for over a decade). Janos Marik was so subtle that he doesn't even get credit in the sourcebooks. Hanse was good, but very much an 'in your face' operator.

I see Janos as the guy with the short stack that just won't go away.  Max gets out first, obviously.  Then there's a long dry spell where Janos gets put all in, wins, then fritters his chips away over the next few hands, wash, rinse, repeat.  Eventually Takashi goes one on one with Hanse and gets put out.  Janos falls soon after, and Hanse agrees to let Katrina win if he can marry her daughter.

[Guardsman]

I see Janos as the guy with the short stack that just won't go away.  Max gets out first, obviously.  Then there's a long dry spell where Janos gets put all in, wins, then fritters his chips away over the next few hands, wash, rinse, repeat.  Eventually Takashi goes one on one with Hanse and gets put out.  Janos falls soon after, and Hanse agrees to let Katrina win if he can marry her daughter.

Max not only goes out first, but he buys back in and goes out a second time, before anyone else has gone out once.

[Nibs]

It'll just be a repeat of the movie Maverick. That seems likely to me.

[Guardsman]

It'll just be a repeat of the movie Maverick. That seems likely to me.

Please can we make it Tombstone. I'd hate to have to watch a Mel Gibson film.

[Nibs]

Only Mel!  >:(

His movies made so much sense and entertain me greatly! (except for all of them)

[Guardsman]

Only Mel!  >:(

His movies made so much sense and entertain me greatly! (except for all of them)

I liked Gallipoli.

[Kit deSummersville]

I liked Gallipoli.

The English didn't.

[Drop Bear]

That's because we called them on their BS Official version of events with that one.

[Guardsman]

The English didn't.

I'm English.

[Guardsman]

That's because we called them on their BS Official version of events with that one.

I also liked the Patriot. Historical fiction amuses me. Part of the reason I love BattleTech so much.

[Kit deSummersville]

I'm English.

I was implying that your countrymen who visited there in 1915 had a different opinion.  ;)

[Guardsman]

I was implying that your countrymen who visited there in 1915 had a different opinion.  ;)

Well, of course, they were only Aussies. ;)

[Grim_Reaper]

i see a lot of responses that think that Janos would win but personally i disagree, i think he would just outlast all others only to loose in the final round

[Drop Bear]

Well, of course, they were only Aussies. ;)

their was a number of times when British High Command sent out Memos to the following effect and at least one with these exact words "If an assignment too Dirty, Difficult or Dangerous do not trust it to or risk English Troops, Instead send ANZAC units if available"

[Guardsman]

their was a number of times when British High Command sent out Memos to the following effect and at least one with these exact words "If an assignment too Dirty, Difficult or Dangerous do not trust it to or risk English Troops, Instead send ANZAC units if available"

Guardsman deftly uses a magic marker to black out where it says “disposable” next to the ANZAC troops.