Six points that hit is better than 10 points that miss. That is my philosophy anyway. Part of it will depend on expected conditions and what type of pilot.
This needs some analysis:
Given TN is before accounting for the pulse bonus, only keeping two significant digits
The probability (1 - both missing) includes both hitting, so the (both hitting) term adds the extra damage of the second ML
As there are two lasers, and we are calculating expectation values, (1- both miss + both hit) is not a probability and can be as high as 2.
TN of 12: MPL damage expectation (DEp) = 1 (1/6 chance of hitting x 6 damage) 2ML damage expectation (DEr) = 0.25 ((1- odds of both missing) x 5 damage)
TN of 11: DEp = 1.67 (10/36 chance of hitting x 6), DEr = 0.74 (5 x (1- odds of both missing + odds of both hitting)
TN of 10: DEp = 2.5 (15/36 chance of hitting x 6), DEr = 1.67 (5 x (1 - 25/36 + 1/36)
TN of 9: DEp = 3.5 (21/36 x 6), DEr = 2.77 (5 x (1- (26/36)^2 + (10/36)^2))
TN of 8: DEp = 4.33 (26/36 x 6), DEr = 4.17 (5 x (1 - (21/36)^2 +(15/36)^2))
TN of 7: DEp = 5 (5/6 x 6), DEr = 5.83 (5 x (1- (15/36)^2 + (21/36)^2)
TN of 6: DEp = 5.5 (11/12 x 6), DEr = 7.22 (5 x (1-(10/36)^2 + (26/36)^2))
If you know that you are taking an elite mechwarrior against slow targets (gunnery 2 versus 4/6 mechs), twin ML's are a shoe-in, with the longer range being icing on the cake. Otherwise, the single MPL is better for one jumping mech duelling another jumper.