NFL 2019-2020 Every team won the off-season! Except the Dolphins....

[Kit deSummersville]

Since the schedule has been released for next season, let's make a new thread for it!

[monbvol]

My predictions:

AFC North: Pittsburgh by a wide margin.  Cleveland has the talent but the coach is an unknown and the owner does like to meddle so I expect them to implode.  Bangles will just kind of be there.  Baltimore I don't think has the offensive firepower.

AFC East: New England.  New York if they can keep from competing for most dysfunctional team might actually challenge again.  Miami doesn't instill me with confidence.  Buffalo will once again languish.

AFC South: Indianapolis.  Houston will put in a good show but injuries will rack up and derail their season.  Jacksonville will improve but I doubt Foles can solve all their woes.  Titans will go in fits and spurts but run out of steam early.

AFC West: Kansas City.  Denver will run out of resurrection spells trying to ride Flacco to the post season.  Oakland's plan is still in the works.  LA ran out of time with Rivers last season.

Wild Cards: New York, LA

NFC North: Green Bay but barely.  Chicago will give a good run but fall just short, Detroit is still intent on competing for most dysfunctional team in the NFL, and Minnesota hasn't done anything yet to make me think they'll do anything but fall up short again.  I think this will be the most interesting division to watch this year though.

NFC East: Dallas.  Philly will only fall short due to Dallas having tie breakers/strength of wins.  Washington will probably win the most dysfunctional team this year.  New York still hasn't kicked Eli to retirement and he's been playing on borrowed time for years now.

NFC South: New Orleans.  Carolina will challenge but Cam's inconsistency will again be their undoing in the end.  Tampa Bay is still a bit of a mess.  Atlanta is in decline.

NFC West: LA Rams.  San Fransisco depends entirely on keeping the injury bug away.  Seattle's just given away so much cap space that they're going to have trouble finding good players to fill their holes and they have holes. Arizona will be a dumpster fire just a bit longer.

Wild cards: Philly, Chicago

Super Bowl: Kansas City over New Orleans in a shoot out.

[Scotty]

AFC North: Browns.  The bandwagon has no brakes

AFC East: Patriots.  Is it the heat death of the universe yet?  No?  Patriots.

AFC South: Colts.  Because someone has to.

AFC West: Chiefs.  The defense should improve and that's literally all that prevented a Super Bowl last year.

Wild Cards: Chargers, Ravens.  Sorry Steelers, Big Ben's Locker Room Poison isn't going away.

NFC North: Bears*.  I reserve the right to change this before the first Sunday of the season. :D

NFC East: I don't bet on roulette.

NFC South: Saints.  They're going to be playing mad and Cam is probably still broke.

NFC West: Rams.  Goff's year is going to suck after getting exposed that badly in the Super Bowl, but none of the other teams look much better.

Wild Cards: Packers*, Falcons.

[rebs]

Detroit Lions aren't trying to be dysfunctional, it just sort of happens.  Almost every season.

[Tai Dai Cultist]

I'll play this year.

NFC East: Philly.  Last year Dallas only won the division thanks to a perfect storm of multiple unlikely factors. Nobody's that lucky two years in a row, nor are the Eagles likely to be that unlucky two years in a row.
NFC North: Da Bears. Vikes still haven't finished their Icarus-like fall from the NFCCG, and they're still head and shoulders above the Lions and the current state of the Packers.
NFC West: Rams.  Hard to argue this is the year they get bumped down a peg.
NFC South: Saints. Two consecutive years of building chips on their shoulders.  They WANT the SB this year.
Wild Cards: Seahawks and Panthers

AFC East: The Cheatriots.  Less said about them the better.
AFC North: Bengals. They'll less "win" the division than the other three will find ways to dig lower positions in the standings. The lingering taint from the Steelers' personnel drama will make them a horror show this year.  You heard it here first.
AFC West: Chargers.  As an Iggles fan, I know Andy Reid too well. The Chiefs had their shot. If it was gonna happen, they missed their chance.
AFC South: Jaguars. Foles magic.  Screw logic, it's my pick and I can pick for whatever reasons I want.
Wild Cards: Chiefs and Texans

SB: NO over the Chargers.

[Sartris]

NFC North: Bears. Unless Green Bay gets Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson in the draft
NFC South: Saints. Tampa bay is in “not” tanking mode and Carolina is basically cam
NFC West: Rams. Russell Wilson is going to feel the Joe Flacco team talent pinch
NFC East: the dartboard says dalladephia. Not sure who their coach is
Wild Cards: the other half of dalladelphia and uh Minnesota? I have a confidence of zero Kelvin.

AFC North:  Browns in a squeaker. 10-6 probably wins the division
AFC South: Colts. Andrew Luck is the idiot savant that will lead them to victory
AFC West: Chiefs. The chargers missed their chance
AFC East: Pats. The fins are tanking, the jets are the jets and the bills still have josh Allen. They could line up Tony Saragusa at tight end and still win the division
Wild Cards: Texans will go 9-7 again just as sun rises and lose in the first round. I think Pittsburg sneaks in via a weak conference

If I hit on half of these I’ll be thrilled.

[Kit deSummersville]

So the Chiefs basically swapped Dee Ford for Frank Clark and it cost them a 1 and a 2 next year and they picked up a 2 this year and moved up in the 3rd this year? I don't think that worked out well in the end for them.

[Scotty]

So the Chiefs basically swapped Dee Ford for Frank Clark and it cost them a 1 and a 2 next year and they picked up a 2 this year and moved up in the 3rd this year? I don't think that worked out well in the end for them.

Ford had exactly one good season for the whole season, and otherwise didn't finish a season for injury besides his bad rookie season.  Clark has had 9+ sacks each of the last three seasons.

The cap space is also likely a big reason for the move.  We traded Dee Ford plus a 1st and one of our two next 2nds next year to not have to draft DL in the first round.

Honestly as long as the defense is merely average this year and Mahomes doesn't wipe out life on the surface crashing back to Earth I don't really care if the FO looks bad to do it.

[rebs]

And Detroit picks a tight end with TJ Hawkinson 8th over all.  It makes sense because the Lions are trying to strengthen their run game, and he's a finisher when it comes to blocking.  But the way the Lions try to develop tight ends is exasperating.  Ebron was gpod in college too, but the only way he panned out for us was his hands, which were teflon frying pans.   

How'd everyone else take their team's draft?

[monbvol]

Seattle's move wasn't terrible.  Collier looks to be a solid but not spectacular edge rusher that should get them some much needed pressure on opposing QBs.

[Sartris]

i was in chapel hill when ebron was at UNC and he never struck me as a two-dimensional TE - more that new dude giant mutant heavy WR. Maybe it was just the offense they ran, but just looking at him i didn't get the impression he was going to gronk smash people with crackback blocks on off-tackle power.

overall the first round was very utilitarian - 18 defensive players with 11 being DT or DE. Just under half (6) of the 14 offensive players were o-line. the one eyebrow raise for me was Jones going before Haskins at QB. Cutcliff at Duke has been bestowed a QB whisperer status by being Manning-adjacent... i thought Haskins was a better overall QB but who knows.

i grudgingly give gruden a decent grade with three picks (i would have bet money they would trade one)... two sturdy defensive players and the top RB in this year's class.

my current city of residence vikings made a beige sedan-level sensible pick with a center... though most of us would be hard pressed to know what a good center prospect looks like without being told.

[Kit deSummersville]

I liked the fact that the Cowboys didn't do anything stupid to get back into the 1st round. I was also happy at the questionable decisions of the Giants. I think the Giants are channeling Al Davis these days....

[Sartris]

Rosen to the dolphins is a curious move. A mid second round pick is decent value for a first round qb that has potential but weren’t they in super tank mode with fitzmagic so they could get a guy like tua or Fromm next year?

Maybe they’ll tank better with Rosen... Fitzpatrick is the kind of guy who will go out and win three games he has no business winning and they drop to the fifth pick or something

[Kit deSummersville]

I was disappointed the Cowboys traded away the pick that the Bengals used on Michael Jordan but they made up for it by getting the King of Pop and his dad.

[Kit deSummersville]

Would it hurt Mel Kiper to maybe have the same standard when evaluating draft classes? I know evaluations are pretty much just fluff at this point, but having some sense of unbiased reporting would be nice.

This draft class is Khalil Mack. Simple as that.

Let me ask you: Did Dallas get any immediate starters here? Cooper doesn't count.

[Sartris]

Someone needs to do a five years later eval of these draft grades. I feel like it’s going to come back that the draft gurus of the land aren’t much better at predicting success in the league than the average fan. Everyone is killing the giants for taking jones but can we really say he’s a better chance to bust than Haskins? I mean gruden fell over himself to tell us that the peter man would be a good qb

[Scotty]

Someone needs to do a five years later eval of these draft grades. I feel like it’s going to come back that the draft gurus of the land aren’t much better at predicting success in the league than the average fan. Everyone is killing the giants for taking jones but can we really say he’s a better chance to bust than Haskins? I mean gruden fell over himself to tell us that the peter man would be a good qb

Yeah, we really can.  The guy got beat 52-7 by Wake Forest in his final collegiate game.  (EDIT: mixed up which QB I was talking about) His entire career is full of games like that.   This pick makes Christian Hackenburg in the 2nd look sane.

Gruden is a fantastic example of a man that drinks his own Kool-Aid.

[Sartris]

Sure but how did all those heisman winners pan out?

Lamar Jackson
Mariota
Winston
Manziel
Griffin
Bradford
Tebow
Troy Smith
Leinart

and Cam, the only one I would consider above replacement level. The rest you hesitate paying after the rookie contract at best.

I think gettleman is a tool but based on the percentage of dudes from winning programs people fawn over and end up being garbage, I’m not willing to trust the evaluation process on either end to make any pronouncements

[Scotty]

Sure but how did all those heisman winners pan out?

Lamar Jackson <- took the Ravens to the playoffs
Mariota <- breaks frequently, otherwise looks good
Winston <- terrible, chalking this one up to karma
Manziel <- lay off the bottle, mate
Griffin <- I blame the ****** 100% for destroying RG3's career
Bradford <- knees made of tissue paper
Tebow <- Beat the Steelers in the best OT game ending of all time; deserved the Heisman as a running back not as a QB
Troy Smith
Leinart

and Cam, the only one I would consider above replacement level. The rest you hesitate paying after the rookie contract at best.

I think gettleman is a tool but based on the percentage of dudes from winning programs people fawn over and end up being garbage, I’m not willing to trust the evaluation process on either end to make any pronouncements

Personally I think that poor coaching destroys a lot of promising careers and that if everybody had their own personal Andy Reid and a year to learn the position we'd have a lot more major successes at the QB position.  That, combined with the Heisman measuring things that don't necessarily make for good NFL QBs means that this is a trend that suffers mightily from a lack of sample size.

That's before we even get into the logical issues with the implied comparison here: Guys that are supposed to be good fail frequently; therefore maybe we're wrong about guys that are supposed to be terrible.  I get that scouting isn't a guarantee but with that idea you might as well draft literally any QB from a random school.

Daniels's tape looks terrible fighting for "not last" in the ACC Not-Good Division.  That's a pretty big knock.

[Sartris]

injuries and bad coaching are inevitabilities. you don't get bonus points at the end of your career because you suffered either (or both). ironically having a replacement-level guy is a hindrance in the long term because you think you're doing ok by maybe winning a playoff game (which isn't doing ok, it's just being the best of the mediocre who didn't win the super bowl and chaining you to a pretty good dude who won't win you shit).

I get that scouting isn't a guarantee but with that idea you might as well draft literally any QB from a random school.

come on. jones had a draftable grade. he's not any random qb - like, say, Charlie Brewer from Baylor (the first school that popped into my head). the problem is that you draft QBs in the first round when they're third round talents because the system isn't capable of furnishing enough quality starters and teams get desperate. and reach for literally every QB in the first round this year. it's a fundamental problem.

[rebs]

... chaining you to a pretty good dude who won't win you shit).

Welcome to the Lions and their boy, Stat Padford.

[Sartris]

you can always hold out for craziness like Nick Foles or an all-time defense

The big problem is that you've got a guy in Matt Patricia, who has a pencil in his ear for his laminated play sheet  ;D

[rebs]

The big problem is that you've got a guy in Matt Patricia, who has a pencil in his ear for his laminated play sheet  ;D

You noticed that too, ehhhh?

That play sheet may as well be a coney island menu...

[Sartris]

[Scotty]

come on. jones had a draftable grade. he's not any random qb - like, say, Charlie Brewer from Baylor (the first school that popped into my head). the problem is that you draft QBs in the first round when they're third round talents because the system isn't capable of furnishing enough quality starters and teams get desperate. and reach for literally every QB in the first round this year. it's a fundamental problem.

The reason this pick is getting shit on so hard is a combination of drafting the fifth-best QB prospect as the second QB, at pick #6, ignoring the rest of the team needs when he was overwhelmingly likely to still be there when they traded up again anyway, and because Gettleman has already been on record doing damage control by saying the guy could sit for three years behind Eli to get ready.

Any single one of those things?  Okay, yeah, they've got their guy, maybe it'll work out.  All of them?  I'm gonna make fun of it for years until I'm either proven wrong or it gets boring.  Smart money bets on the latter.

I love my BBQ-loving coach.

[Sartris]

The reason this pick is getting shit on so hard is a combination of drafting the fifth-best QB prospect as the second QB, at pick #6, ignoring the rest of the team needs when he was overwhelmingly likely to still be there when they traded up again anyway, and because Gettleman has already been on record doing damage control by saying the guy could sit for three years behind Eli to get ready.

yup, a reach. acknowledged. we're not that far apart on this, i just don't have that much faith in the league as a whole to identify and develop talent, especially this clown in new york. gettleman thinks he outsmarted everyone when any of the picks would probably result in roughly the same fate, which is why i wasn't all in on pissing on the giants in the first place. the last regime had a real plan in place to bench eli once and for all and dive into the septic tank for a year to start a new era around some promising talent (and eventually fire the coaching staff)... then the owner decided he owed to let the other manning to essentially age to death on the field in front of the world.

Smart money bets on the latter.

not a particularly brave wager since most QBs are busts, but you should definitely take your victory lap before every KC skill position player ends up on the IR or commissioner's list

[Kit deSummersville]

Someone needs to do a five years later eval of these draft grades.

Oh I know, it would just be nice to have some internal consistency. He did the same thing a few years ago when he included free agents in draft classes...except for La'el Collins because "anyone could have gotten him".

not a particularly brave wager since most QBs are busts, but you should definitely take your victory lap before every KC skill position player ends up on the IR or commissioner's list

Pat Mahomes had a trajectory that would have taken him to Canton one day. Sadly, he spilled BBQ sauce on his arm in the cafeteria and his coach mistakenly gnawed it to the bone before he could clean it off....

[Sartris]

Reid strikes me more as the guy who gleefully twiddles his fingers in front of a plate of donuts than ravenous omnivore

[ANS Kamas P81]

injuries and bad coaching are inevitabilities. you don't get bonus points at the end of your career because you suffered either

Were that the case, RG3 would be the greatest in history...

[Kit deSummersville]

Were that the case, RG3 would be the greatest in history...

He can compete with Sam Bradford. But Bradford beat him handily in the Income stat.