Author Topic: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?  (Read 5221 times)

Korzon77

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Which is to say, everyone save for the FS ignored it when she issued it in 3020--but what if that didn't happen?  What if most of the powers, say, everyone but the Capallens, were at least willing to give it a serious look, either as an eye to ending the conflict entirely, or racheting things back?

glitterboy2098

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Comstar would have arranged something to derail the process. remember that while Primus Julian Tiepolo did help facilitate Katrina's effort (leading to the staiener-davion wedding and fedcom) he also immediately arranged the Concord of Kapteyn as a counter alliance meant to turn a peace effort into just another prelude to conflict. if the bulk of the inner sphere responded to katrina's effort, he would have arranged to have something happen to sow dissent between the houses and undo the progress.

remember that Comstar's beliefs at that point are basically that of the later word of blake's, just more moderated by their secrecy and less fanatical members (like Tiepolo). they wanted the inner sphere beset by wars and conflict because that drives the loss of technology.. without the inner sphere blowing themselves back to the stone age, comstar can't step in and rebuild society from the rubble.

as best as i can tell Tiepolo seems like he was playing the long game, encouraging the successor states to consolidate their resources, redevelop infrastructure and tech just enough that they felt free to have those knock down drag out wars like the first two succession wars, instead of the drawn out low intensity static conflict that was the third succession war.

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In order for them to take it seriously, the first thing that needs to happen is for the proposal itself to actually be serious. Let's be honest; Katrina's proposal was ridiculously one-sided and favoured the Lyran Commonwealth above all the others to a point that they couldn't really lose. Katrina was canny enough to know this.

It was never meant to be a serious proposal. Really, what she was looking for people who were actually interested in peace rather than simply continuing the Succession Wars. After all, this is how the FedCom got started.

Now what's the really interesting WI is that Janos Marik proposed an alliance through marrying Melissa Steiner to Thomas Marik. Given what we now know about Thomas, it's interesting to speculate what might have come next...

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Lone-Wolf

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remember that Comstar's beliefs at that point are basically that of the later word of blake's, just more moderated by their secrecy and less fanatical members (like Tiepolo). they wanted the inner sphere beset by wars and conflict because that drives the loss of technology.. without the inner sphere blowing themselves back to the stone age, comstar can't step in and rebuild society from the rubble.

I do disagree with you a little.
According to the story at the beginning of the book "Second Succession War" Blake wanted the IS to suffer such horrific warfare that mankind would never again make war.
It is mentioned page 5. The paragraph starts with "No. Inevitably war would return." and ends with "Kerensky saw it, but I just wasn`t ready to believe." (OK, that´s two paragraphs.)

Mankind advanced technological but not ethics wise. Therefore the lesson must be burned in.

dgorsman

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Blake, yes.  Toyama, possibly (if the intro to 2nd SW book is to be believed).  But Toyama may not have passed down knowledge of those intentions.  So post-Toyama ComStar is the religious order without the original intentions, and instead whatever the Primus of the day translates Blake's will as.
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Fallen_Raven

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In order for them to take it seriously, the first thing that needs to happen is for the proposal itself to actually be serious. Let's be honest; Katrina's proposal was ridiculously one-sided and favoured the Lyran Commonwealth above all the others to a point that they couldn't really lose. Katrina was canny enough to know this.

It was never meant to be a serious proposal. Really, what she was looking for people who were actually interested in peace rather than simply continuing the Succession Wars. After all, this is how the FedCom got started.

Where are you getting that from? I've never seen anything that suggested that the peace proposal was anything less than a good faith effort to resolve the Succession Wars.
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IIRC Hanse was the only one who's response wasn't "Marry your daughter to my heir and give me half of your realm." Max wanted control over the Estates General as well.

Deadborder

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Where are you getting that from? I've never seen anything that suggested that the peace proposal was anything less than a good faith effort to resolve the Succession Wars.

It's the way that the contest is set up. The Lyrans would have easily won it, something that Katrina would have known when she made the proposal. More to the point, all the other Successor State leaders also would have known that, something that Katrina would have been canny enough to expect.
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Mecha-Anchovy

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Where are you getting that from? I've never seen anything that suggested that the peace proposal was anything less than a good faith effort to resolve the Succession Wars.

Yes, but it's worth asking 'on whose terms?'

What does 'resolve the Succession Wars' mean? Katrina's peace proposal didn't resolve the question of who would be First Lord, for instance, and that's ostensibly what the wars were about. The peace proposal was a serious proposal to stop fighting, but - who would want that, why, and what long-term issues does it resolve?

The Lyran Commonwealth is the economically and industrially strongest of the great houses. By its very nature, then, it has the most to gain from a cease-fire. It benefits the most from a pause to rearm and rebuild. If I were Takashi Kurita, why would I even consider consenting to that? All of my interests seem to favour keeping the pressure on the Lyrans.

Looking at it with the benefit of hindsight, I think there's probably a fair case to be made that Houses Davion and perhaps Liao were the only ones likely to benefit from the peace proposal. House Kurita loses from that proposal: given time the Lyrans will out-build them and out-tech them, whereas raiding and attritional warfare are the best way for House Kurita to counter that strength. The Mariks are in the same position, even if it's not quite as extreme for them. Look at the twenty years or so immediately prior to the peace proposal: the Mariks hit Coventry, Alarion, Bolan, and Pollux in 3006, and in both 3015 and 3019 sent Wolf's Dragoons on a series of industrial raids, the latter a serious attack on Hesperus II. Both the Kuritas and Mariks were engaged in pretty aggressive raiding to try to blunt the Commonwealth's industrial edge.

In the 3010s, Katrina's overall policies seem pretty defensive: she pulls Lyran forces back, strengthens garrisons, reassigns dropships to humanitarian aid and industrial development, and so on. She's trying to back off and build up. In that context, she then proposes a general cease-fire. I can completely understand why House Steiner's two closest enemies reject that. It is obviously a move that disproportionately benefits House Steiner: "please stop hitting me while I try to rebuild."

It's Houses Davion and Liao who have the most to gain from peace, since neither of them have any particular reason to fight the Commonwealth. Indeed, both would probably benefit from a stronger Commonwealth taking the pressure off the Kurita and Marik fronts respectively. It's not that the Liaos or Davions are nicer or more peace-loving - it's that peace and Steiner build-up supports their interests. So Katrina looks more closely at both of those, and comes to the reasonable conclusion that House Davion is more trustworthy, has more shared culture with the Commonwealth, and has more to offer in an alliance.

As far as I can tell, IU voices generally agree that the peace proposal, while in one sense sincere, was also clearly something that disproportionately benefitted the Lyrans.

Quote from: House Steiner House Book p. 82
3020 was also the year that Archon Katrina Steiner issued her 'Peace Proposal' to the other Successor States. Even though her proposals were nothing more than a glorified attempt at a cease-fire on her terms, the eagerness with which Hanse Davion entered into a dialogue with Katrina Steiner surprised even the members of the esteemed First Circuit.
Quote from: House Steiner House Book p. 96
In 3020, Archon Katrina Steiner went one step further by issuing the Peace Proposal of 3020. In it, she wrote that the hope for reuniting the Star League through force was a very dim one that could only lead to more bloodshed, that every Successor State should be content with what it had and cease the wasteful warring over worlds. She suggested that the five House leaders arrange a cease-fire to last for several months, so that they could meet on Terra. Once there, the five might be able to work out individual treaties, with the exalted First Circuit of the ComStar [sic] acting as a neutral witness. The Archon's proposal then outlined a system that would channel their competitive urges into economic adventures so that disputes over worlds would be won by whomever could best economically develop the planet.

The other four Successor States rejected this cease-fire initiative. Aside from the Draconis Combine, which did not deign to answer, the other three replied that this proposal for an economic free-for-all would play into the Commonwealth's hands. Everyone knew, they said, that the Commonwealth had the best industrial base from which to wage this economic war.

I would note also that the stated justification for the peace proposal given here is ideologically impossible for both the Combine and the Confederation. "Let's all stop and be happy with what we've got" is not a proposal that House Kurita can agree to, as they're committed to the view that they ought to control everything, or that House Liao can, as they're committed to the idea that they must 'liberate' every single ex-Capellan world.

And the economic competition bit is just... yeah...

How would the other houses respond if House Kurita proposed that we abolish war and resolve all territorial disputes by ritual iaijutsu duels?  ;)

I think Katrina sincerely wanted peace, and sincerely would have really wanted the proposal to go through, but she was smart enough that I don't think she ever seriously believed the proposal would be accepted. The point was to buy time, and perhaps to send out feelers and discover which of the other states might make good allies.

five_corparty

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #9 on: 21 September 2021, 12:35:52 »
does anyone know where the responses are defined?  I remember thinking that max wanted to marry her, but I can't remember where I read that; I don't know if' I've -EVER- seen Janos' response?

Decoy

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #10 on: 21 September 2021, 13:12:20 »
IIRC Katrina runs down the responses in the second book of the Warrior Trilogy while talking to Morgan.

Orwell84

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #11 on: 21 September 2021, 16:44:38 »
does anyone know where the responses are defined?  I remember thinking that max wanted to marry her, but I can't remember where I read that; I don't know if' I've -EVER- seen Janos' response?

Janos Marik's response, from the House Steiner book, p.94
Quote

Janos Marik, leader of the Free Worlds League, delivered his reply to Katrina Steiner's cease-fire proposal through a ComStar facility. It was a softly worded demand stating that the only way peace could exist between the two states was if a Marik were to ascend to the Archonship. Janos would probably accomplish this with the marriage of his heir to Melissa Steiner, the Archon-Designate. (Who this heir might be is uncertain.) He also proposed a plan to consolidate the Free Worlds' currency with the more powerful Lyran H-Bills. Katrina Steiner did not even bother to reply.

Max Liao's response, from the House Steiner book, p. 95
Quote
Maximilian Liao sent a long reply to the Archon's ceasefire proposal. He too ruled the plan impossible in its present condition, but lavishly praised her attempt. Like Duke Marik, he made a counter-proposal that involved marrying the Archon's daughter to one of Liao's successors. Maximilian Liao further sought an agreement from House Steiner to commit to a major military offensive against the Free Worlds League. Liao also demanded a voice in the Commonwealth Council, "so that I might better communicate my interests in your great domain". In return, the Chancellor promised to fully support Katrina Steiner's "efforts to bring a just and lasting peace to our troubled Inner Sphere".

Knowing the oily political sawy that the Liao family has perfected over the last several hundred years plus the prolific nature of the breed, the Archon wisely turned down the Duke of Sian's advances.
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abou

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #12 on: 21 September 2021, 22:28:56 »
Which is to say, everyone save for the FS ignored it when she issued it in 3020--but what if that didn't happen?  What if most of the powers, say, everyone but the Capallens, were at least willing to give it a serious look, either as an eye to ending the conflict entirely, or racheting things back?
What would have happened? Fans would have spent their time endlessly complaining about PeaceTech; how dumb everyone is for taking her up on it despite the fact that they had lived through about 250 years of continuous war and technological degradation; and were honestly probably collectively tired of living on a knife's edge of continued existence or death.

In universe?

I think it may have lasted a brief moment before some minor lord blew it all up. The FedCom alliance had to deal with multiple Skye uprisings alone. It is easy to see how a noble with enough military assets would try and start something themselves out of jingoism or simple opportunism. You can take a look at any movement and slightly tweak it to work whether a Davion purity movement, Black Dragon society, House Liao, etc. Those flashpoints could then drag their respective federal governments into a greater conflict and thus doom any peace prospects... which is sort of what happened with the Dark Age.

If it wasn't for the Clans coming, it would have been an interesting alternate future.

The_Big_Red_Bear

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #13 on: 21 September 2021, 22:43:25 »
Janos Marik's response, from the House Steiner book, p.94


Marik's response is at least pretty reasonable on some level. If the two could have compromised, wouldn't it have been weird to see the Free World's Commonwealth? lol
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Orwell84

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #14 on: 21 September 2021, 22:54:54 »
Marik's response is at least pretty reasonable on some level. If the two could have compromised, wouldn't it have been weird to see the Free World's Commonwealth? lol

Theoretically, yes. In practice, I believe the House Marik book mentions a League saying: "Never trust a Capellan but shoot a Lyran on sight." Too much animosity built up over the centuries, otherwise the FedSuns might have been able to broker an LC-FWL armistice and a joint League-Suns assault on the CC.
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The Third Star League's view of the Succession Wars, plagiarised from an ancient Terran historian's judgement of the Thirty Years War.

The_Big_Red_Bear

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #15 on: 21 September 2021, 23:21:05 »
Theoretically, yes. In practice, I believe the House Marik book mentions a League saying: "Never trust a Capellan but shoot a Lyran on sight." Too much animosity built up over the centuries, otherwise the FedSuns might have been able to broker an LC-FWL armistice and a joint League-Suns assault on the CC.

Can you imagine how horrible things would have gone for the CC if it was the Federated World's League? lol
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five_corparty

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #16 on: 21 September 2021, 23:57:07 »
Janos Marik's response, from the House Steiner book, p.94
Max Liao's response, from the House Steiner book, p. 95

THANKS!!  I looked but I was looking for "peace proposal," and must have blown right past the page!

and has been mentioned, can you imagine a FWL+FS+LC alliance?  Janos' counteroffer wasn't in the realm of impossibility, and he might have been willing to accept a Thomas Marik + Lisa Steiner II (nondi's daughter) compromise.

interesting to think about!

Drewbacca

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #17 on: 22 September 2021, 06:52:31 »
Marik's response is at least pretty reasonable on some level. If the two could have compromised, wouldn't it have been weird to see the Free World's Commonwealth? lol

Oh good lord, Imagine it was Thomas!

A Free Worlds Commonwealth would be very powerful to begin with, but add in a Comstar connection!! A REALLY BLAKIST  Comstar connection! I like the FWL and Andurien, but that is freaking teriffying.

Zraver

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #18 on: 22 September 2021, 09:17:03 »
Oh good lord, Imagine it was Thomas!

A Free Worlds Commonwealth would be very powerful to begin with, but add in a Comstar connection!! A REALLY BLAKIST  Comstar connection! I like the FWL and Andurien, but that is freaking teriffying.

If Janos had been a bit more moderate, it could have been a 3 way alliance against the CC and fully extinguished that rotting dung pile of a realm.  The DC would have been begging for a FRR then to shorten its border exposure.

Hellraiser

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #19 on: 22 September 2021, 09:37:06 »
The way it was written, is, to me, about the only way it could have gone.

The DC is just too hostile to really be much of an ally to anyone.
Ditto the CC.
Provided they didn't know just how much the FS had been disrupting them MIIO agents, the FWL could have been an ally to the FS if it wasn't Katrina's proposal, but, there was no way the LC/FWL were likely to "ally".

Which is why pretty much any 3-way alliance isn't going to work well, we see that with the Concord nations where it wasn't all sunshine between Marik & Liao.

Davion & Steiner had a common enemy in the most hostile of the 5 nations, the DC, and they were 2 of the 3 "level headed?" of the 5 leaders at that time.

The only part that gets me is that really, Hanse came back w/ the same "I want your daughter" that the others responded with but didn't get immediately turned down.  So that is a bit iffy to me logic-wise.
I think his counter offer of full on alliance, and the fact that he was the closest to her age maybe, & possibly just his presentation, was key in moving the alliance forward.
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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #20 on: 22 September 2021, 18:42:01 »
Hanse wasn't closest in age to Melissa -- he was born in 2983, Thomas Marik in 2990, and Melissa in 3010.  Tommy would still be cradle robbing, but Hanse has 7 years on him.
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Intermittent_Coherence

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #21 on: 23 September 2021, 20:27:34 »
He was close in age to Katrina (less than 10 years).  ;D

glitterboy2098

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #22 on: 23 September 2021, 21:27:16 »
yeah, the age gap was seriously creepy.

i think the fact that his proposal involved a full cooperation that gave the Lyrans equal standing to the Fedsuns is what made the difference.. the others all made offers that basically would have subjugated the lyrans in the process, either directly (marik) or indirectly (Liao).


Metallgewitter

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #23 on: 24 September 2021, 07:05:37 »
I do disagree with you a little.
According to the story at the beginning of the book "Second Succession War" Blake wanted the IS to suffer such horrific warfare that mankind would never again make war.
It is mentioned page 5. The paragraph starts with "No. Inevitably war would return." and ends with "Kerensky saw it, but I just wasn`t ready to believe." (OK, that´s two paragraphs.)

Mankind advanced technological but not ethics wise. Therefore the lesson must be burned in.

That is interesting. It somehow contradicts what the Battle for Terra books state. For example Toyama started to see Blake in a bad light when Blake proposed tro sell simple Terran-manufactured goods to the Great Houses which was considered heresy by Toyama. I got the impression that Blake just wanted to safekeep Terra and the HPF net and leave the rest of the Is to itself. Wasn't Operation Holy Shroud (the killing of leading scientists and engineers across the IS) ordered by Toyama?

Minemech

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #24 on: 24 September 2021, 11:57:00 »
 It is not that the other Successor States did not seriously consider the peace proposal, it was that the peace proposal itself was a false front. It had useful propaganda value for both the Federated Suns, and the Lyran Commonwealth, who had been quietly cooperating on military ventures, notably against the Free Worlds League, before it was made.

Cannonshop

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #25 on: 24 September 2021, 12:09:44 »
That is interesting. It somehow contradicts what the Battle for Terra books state. For example Toyama started to see Blake in a bad light when Blake proposed tro sell simple Terran-manufactured goods to the Great Houses which was considered heresy by Toyama. I got the impression that Blake just wanted to safekeep Terra and the HPF net and leave the rest of the Is to itself. Wasn't Operation Holy Shroud (the killing of leading scientists and engineers across the IS) ordered by Toyama?

Yup, good catch (both the first Comstar sourcebook, and fM: Comstar had sections on this.)
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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #26 on: 24 September 2021, 13:59:03 »
Hanse wasn't closest in age to Melissa -- he was born in 2983, Thomas Marik in 2990, and Melissa in 3010.  Tommy would still be cradle robbing, but Hanse has 7 years on him.

And Thomas wasn't the leader of the FWL,  Janos was.
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Hellraiser

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #27 on: 24 September 2021, 14:06:48 »
who had been quietly cooperating on military ventures, notably against the Free Worlds League, before it was made.

Where are you getting this from?
The FS had MIIO agents destabilizing the FWL sure, but, I've never heard anything about them cooperating intentionally.
AFAIK this was known by the LC or at least not actively collaborated with.
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Minemech

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #28 on: 24 September 2021, 16:11:35 »
Where are you getting this from?
The FS had MIIO agents destabilizing the FWL sure, but, I've never heard anything about them cooperating intentionally.
AFAIK this was known by the LC or at least not actively collaborated with.
I read between the lines with that, their raid on Kalidasa, and other coincidental happenings. The raid on Kalidasa was of no strategic value to House Davion, outside of a successful attempt to woo House Steiner. Ruining Janos' new years celebration was of no benefit to the Federated Suns, and it was not advertised as propaganda within that state. Like many things in the older books, it is not spelled out, but you can certainly read it between the lines. 

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Re: WI: The Inner Sphere seriously considers Katrina's peace proposal?
« Reply #29 on: 24 September 2021, 16:35:14 »
And Thomas wasn't the leader of the FWL,  Janos was.

Yes, but Janos' response was to wed his heir to Katrina's heir -- I think Janos was still married when the peace proposal was issued.
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