Okay, I'm not disagreeing, just summing up my raw reactions and why/how they formed.
1) So the first idea is the have a penalty because they make too much. I'm admitting to being surprised if this is the case due to all real world nations with powerful militaries producing more than they can purchase for themselves, and even striving to sell more to others, plus it sounds like a way to build up funds. However the flip side is I LOVE the idea that the TC making so much production that it distorts interstellar commerce. In fact that very hopeful joy is why I doubt this option far more than reason or the books worth of examples in universe that I would have thought suggested otherwise. Not saying it is wrong, just it FEELS to me too good to be true.
2) The second seems to be that since the TC is defensive they don't procure mechs? I am not sure I understand the conjecture, unless they are saying... Taurian a pacifists or something? I feel I don't understand this one and am misrepresenting it due to that.
3) Far lookers using the funds. I like the idea of this a lot, but HBS and IIRC the books from Stackpole surrounding that imply TC does less of this than FWL, MoC, CC and FS at different points (if you are someone who would do all the world counting at different times, most don't it seems). That also was a shocker that pulled a feeling of... not good, but has nothing to do with this idea, other than they are kind of opposites, plus TC has had his issue even before there were mechs (I figure that is just from being too literal and narrow reading on my part of the chart). If I expand this idea to say "corruption" then I'm even worse off oddly as there are other designations that would cover this. Also we had the issue before Far Lookers existed, and their actions seem to be ment, when reading, as an exception than the rule.
4) TC is periphery nation which was picked on and too paranoid. As I mostly feel revulsion from this idea it is likely getting closer (not anything against the poster, I'm talking about what the posit makes me feel). There is a little star - it suggests we are paranoid vs. Everyone which would make far more sense to me and feel infinitely more in tune with what the first two periphery books were putting down than the abomination that the TC was just paranoid vs. Suns. Also we've had many years of people explaining the TC wasn't picked on in any way on this site and others. Since no other faction on the periphery has this issue, I'd say that while the theory itself has every part of it, let's say "with a lot going against it", since overall I like it the least it is likely to be the closest to being right.