Author Topic: Kerensky...  (Read 11887 times)

Kovax

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #30 on: 19 July 2019, 13:27:44 »
My own take on it is that the SLDF, as the largest single force in the Inner Sphere, would be able to enforce some island of stability for a few years, but as terms of service expired, it would be increasingly difficult to maintain that army after veteran soldiers returned to their individual House territories.  A few would stay, a few more would come because of the temporary stability, and the TH itself would supply some more, but ultimately it probably wouldn't be able to stand against any alliance between two or more House armies.

The funding from the Periphery, who had been forced to foot much of the bill in the past, would dry up as the SLDF lost the ability to project force over those vast distances, and the Periphery states would almost inevitably revolt or at the very least refuse to pay the crushing taxes.  After that, the military would need to be reduced to stay within its available funding, and that would leave the TH vulnerable to predation.  I can't picture Kerensky maintaining political control for that long anyway (after it became painfully clear that he was ill suited for the task), so a lot would depend on what caliber of leader moved up to take the helm afterwards, and how gracefully it was handed over.

BlCharger

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #31 on: 19 July 2019, 13:28:07 »
"Who funds the remaining SLDF, from what tax base, and how are those funds collected?"

That's the one thing I forgot to mention in my post. It's all well and good to have a nice big SLDF behind Kerensky, but it doesn't run on promises and credit. He needs cold hard cash to keep it operating. Soldiers need to be fed as do their families. Businesses, such as factories, can't offer their products for free or hope for payment sometime down the line.

Much of the SLDF was funded by the Great Houses and what they could get from the Periphery nations. Well, there goes that money. The bulk of what money is left has to go towards reconstruction of the Hegemony and keeping the civilian population alive.
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Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #32 on: 19 July 2019, 14:06:23 »
  The surviving SLDF was still the largest military force in the IS, and could easily handle any of the Houses, even combined. The problem was logistics.

I would disagree.

While the SLDF remianed the largets single military force within the IS, it was operatin without a supply chain, operating on the basis of goodwill from the Great Houses, and operating on worlds whgeer Hosue troops were alraedy ensconced.

Further, Kerenskys hold on the SLDF was slipping, as evidenced by the success House recruiters ahd in luring commands away. And the Exodus Wars tell us that national loyalties were not dead. Had Kerensky attacked, he likely would have lost a lot of his troops,  wheras had he defended, he would only invite further predation by the great Houses until they were strong enough to overcome him.

The SLDF, in short, could have defeated any one House, maybe any two...but not any three or more. Even sitting out the conflict by simply garrisoning the TH was not going to be an option...troops would have defected, fighting would have spilled over the borders and warriros who were happy fighting for humanity would be aghast at being turned into the THAF.

The SLDF was too small to enforce peace on all the Houses simultaneously, too weak to defeat them all in combat.

War was coming and there wasn't anything Kerensky could do that would deter that. By leaving, he took away half the soldiers who would have destroyed the IS. That one act probably saved more lives than any other option open to him. Not that it seems that way.

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I consider the threat of the Succession Wars being more costly with SLDF units a myth. They would act as a deterrent and cancel each other out.

Why would they act as a deterrent? They wouldn't in real life, they didn't in game.
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Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #33 on: 19 July 2019, 14:13:21 »
The army was more important than protecting the hegemony. Whatever rationale you apply to his motivations, he made a decision about loyalty. The people of the hegemony not under arms were not the recipients of it

War was inevitable. There was nothing he could do to stop it. If he stayed, the SLDF was dead. It was going to break up. That too was inevitable. OIt was already happening.

And once the SLDF was gone, he had nothing with whivh to defend the Hegemony. And the presence of his troops made those worlds targets

If he stayed and fought...the war would be worse and the devastation worse. The Houses would have no problem nuking a world to get rid of an SLDF command.

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And I don’t know about the core of the SLDF breaking up. They did, after all, agree en masse to flee with him to literally unknown space

It was already happening and it was a major reason why he left.

Truth is, Kerensky had no winning option. Leaving removed half the armed forces from the IS, and removed a prime targets that the Houses would go after.
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #34 on: 19 July 2019, 14:17:19 »
If I had no winning option I guess I would do my best to protect the people I swore to protect instead of fleeing because the house lords were mean to me.

There are worse and worst options and from every angle except loyalty to his and the constituency that would follow his orders without question, he took the worst

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Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #35 on: 19 July 2019, 14:18:52 »
If I had no winning option I guess I would do my best to protect the people I swore to protect instead of fleeing because the house lords were mean to me.

And if your presence meant those worlds would be nuked to oblivion?
What then? What would you do?

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #36 on: 19 July 2019, 14:19:26 »
Many of the worlds WERE nuked into oblivion

I guess dereliction of duty is only abhorrent if there’s no one above you to order your execution
« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 14:21:16 by Sartris »

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PyreLight

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #37 on: 19 July 2019, 14:21:52 »
How much was Kerensky a straight copy of the historical Aleksandr Kerensky from the Russian revolution? Did the writers ever mention anything about this?

Retry

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #38 on: 19 July 2019, 14:31:18 »
I kind of agree with Talen here.

"The SLDF would win if not for the logistic concerns" is functionally synonymous with "The SLDF gets obliterated."

Mohammed As`Zaman Bey

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #39 on: 19 July 2019, 14:38:55 »
How much was Kerensky a straight copy of the historical Aleksandr Kerensky from the Russian revolution? Did the writers ever mention anything about this?
  Too much of BT is stolen from history, from Kerensky to Case White...

Mohammed As`Zaman Bey

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #40 on: 19 July 2019, 14:54:33 »
I would disagree.
  Yet you go on to agree with me:
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While the SLDF remianed the largets single military force within the IS, it was operatin without a supply chain, operating on the basis of goodwill from the Great Houses, and operating on worlds whgeer Hosue troops were alraedy ensconced.
  Supply chain = logistics
   ...and the SLDF had so much supplies that they could not haul off most of it, and left caches all over the IS.

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Further, Kerenskys hold on the SLDF was slipping, as evidenced by the success House recruiters ahd in luring commands away. And the Exodus Wars tell us that national loyalties were not dead.

  He could have disbanded the SLDF and destroyed all the weapons he was so afraid of. Unnecessary WMDs are destroyed all the time. The people all could go home.



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The SLDF was too small to enforce peace on all the Houses simultaneously, too weak to defeat them all in combat.
  That was NEVER the purpose of the SLDF. They would become the TH military.

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Why would they act as a deterrent? They wouldn't in real life, they didn't in game.
  My example of MAD did work in real life, you can even look it up. The game needed war and the clumsy, sophomoric narrative makes it far less believable.
« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 15:00:52 by Mohammed As`Zaman Bey »

VensersRevenge

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #41 on: 19 July 2019, 14:59:01 »
If I had no winning option I guess I would do my best to protect the people I swore to protect instead of fleeing because the house lords were mean to me.

There are worse and worst options and from every angle except loyalty to his and the constituency that would follow his orders without question, he took the worst

But who are the people he was sworn to protect? He had no position in the Terran Hegemony, he was the Commanding General of the SLDF. And the Star League was destroyed by the people you are saying he should have worked with. Removing millions of soldiers, many of whom may have refused to fight their home state once it came to that, and hundreds of warships which could nuke even more planets could have been the only option he saw to lessen the number of Star League citizens dying. Again, I'm not saying your view of him is wrong, but it is not the only valid view of Kerensky, and reducing his motivation to throwing a temper tantrum, as you seem to be doing, is kind of unfair to the people who do admire his character and actions.
...Is this just fantasy?
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Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #42 on: 19 July 2019, 15:06:36 »
Many of the worlds WERE nuked into oblivion

Some worlds were. And you didn't answer the question - if your presence made the world you were on and its people a target, and there was nothing you could do to defend them...would you stay?

In short...if you believed that your presence would make things worse, would end up killing more people for nothing...what would you do? Would you really stick around knowing that you would just be making things worse? That more people would die? That more worlds would be devastated?

Would you stay and doom more people to death? Or would you abandon your post knowing that fewer people would die because you were gone?
« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 15:09:12 by Talen5000 »
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abou

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #43 on: 19 July 2019, 15:06:58 »
The Terran Hegemony army was disbanded and folded into the SLDF as per the founding of the League. Without the SLDF, there were no troops to protect those worlds. Any militia forces were obliterated during the Amaris coup. Furthermore, Royal regiments were composed solely of Hegemony citizens.

The TH worlds were their homes and their responsibility.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #44 on: 19 July 2019, 15:18:06 »
Again, I'm not saying your view of him is wrong, but it is not the only valid view of Kerensky, and reducing his motivation to throwing a temper tantrum, as you seem to be doing, is kind of unfair to the people who do admire his character and actions.

he's a fictional character in a reality only developed skin-deep so i'm good with that.

would you stay?

if i'm also of the opinion that the houselords are depraved warmongers? i can't guarentee i'd be convinced anyone was safe if i left either.

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In short...if you believed that your presence would make things worse, would end up killing more people for nothing...what would you do? Would you really stick around knowing that you would just be making things worse? That more people would die? That more worlds would be devastated?

Would you stay and doom more people to death? Or would you abandon your post knowing that fewer people would die because you were gone?

so as a person on the ground in the moment... do i... consult my magic hindsight machine? how can you answer any of these questions? the (alleged negative) consequences for staying are equally perilous to the (alleged positive) consequences of leaving.

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VensersRevenge

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #45 on: 19 July 2019, 15:22:31 »

  My example of MAD did work in real life, you can even look it up. The game needed war and the clumsy, sophomoric narrative makes it far less believable.

MAD worked in real life because we all live in one world. It demonstratively did not work in Battletech. And the Star League Defense Force is no more of a guarantee of Mutually Assured Destruction than the already existing fleets and nuclear silos of the Successor States. If anything, there would be more use of nuclear weapons in the Hegemony, as the Successor States have already been shown in setting to nuke Royal-quality regiments (see New Dallas). But I doubt Kerensky would be willing to order nuclear strikes on Tharkad or Luthien. So the Successor States would survive, although their offenses against each other might be less powerful. But the Hegemony would be even more devastated. And that's ignoring that even more Regular regiments might abandon Kerensky instead of fighting their home states. The SLDF was not just the Hegemony's army, it was everyone's.

he's a fictional character in a reality only developed skin-deep so i'm good with that.

And I feel like insulting fans of a fictional character because you dislike the explanation of the motivations of the characters actions is kind of pointless. But it's better than describing the entire history of the setting we are all talking about is sophomoric.
...Is this just fantasy?
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Colt Ward

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #46 on: 19 July 2019, 15:24:17 »
One thing no one is mentioning is that the core of the SLDF that Alek had with him had been at war for how long?  They were told that when they took Terra it would all be over, the Star League would be restored . . .

 . . . how much of that army would have gone on to keep fighting?
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Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #47 on: 19 July 2019, 15:29:30 »
so as a person on the ground in the moment... do i... consult my magic hindsight machine? how can you answer any of these questions? the (alleged negative) consequences for staying are equally perilous to the (alleged positive) consequences of leaving.

War was inevitable, as was the breakup of the SLDF.
What troops that remained loyal were going to be prime targets - their mere presence would invite an attack they could not defeat, and that attack, conventional or nuclear, would be more devastating for the civilians and planets of the TH than it would have been if there were no troops.

Should Kerensky have sacrificed millions of civilian lives in a futile attempt to defend worlds that could not be defended?

Because that is what you are saying he should have done. He believed war was coming, and he did not believe he could win that war. And as the SLDF was already breaking up, he did not even have the forces needed to defend the TH. His troops that remained would not have been defenders...they would have been targets. And anything in their vicinity would die with them.

Do you think he should have sacrificed millions to make a meaningless gesture?

There was no way he was going to win, and staying would only make things worse.

« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 15:35:04 by Talen5000 »
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Daryk

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #48 on: 19 July 2019, 15:31:11 »
As others have said, the remaining Royal units weren't anywhere close to numerous enough to defend the Hegemony.  Terra was reaping the whirlwind it sowed in the Reunification War, and Kerensky saved what he thought he could (right or wrong).  If anything, the depiction of him is simply "human".  He was presented with bad outcomes no matter what, and made a choice.  We can argue all day (or weeks/months, as the case may be, before this thread gets locked) about whether some of those outcomes would have been less bad.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #49 on: 19 July 2019, 15:36:27 »
that's the trouble with counterfactuals, they always work in your head because they don't have to stand up to the perils actually happening. i'm arguing both were equally terrible but at least in the stay option he wasn't a deserter.


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VensersRevenge

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #50 on: 19 July 2019, 15:45:05 »
that's the trouble with counterfactuals, they always work in your head because they don't have to stand up to the perils actually happening. i'm arguing both were equally terrible but at least in the stay option he wasn't a deserter.

He couldn't be a deserter. He was an officer of a government structure that no longer existed. The Terran Hegemony's hubris in completely eliminating their military in favour of making the SLDF their guardians failed them when the Star League ended and it's Commanding General saw himself as a citizen of the Star League as a whole, not the TH. He clearly did not believe he was a deserter, and neither did the millions of soldiers and civilians who agreed that the only way to preserve the Star League was to start over without the carrion feeders and jackals that made up the Inner Sphere.
...Is this just fantasy?
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #51 on: 19 July 2019, 16:03:06 »
the hegemony was part of the star league and that's what he controlled - he was the government. the member states were always bickering little children that stabbed each other when dad wasn't looking and he served that trainwreck. then he smashed the hegemony's defenses to pieces during Chieftain and left because he was inconvenienced with the burden of being the last line of defense against the jackals - and no, i can't accept leaving a world undefended that has assets the jackals want is better than defending it.

ultimately i see him as an intractable man who couldn't get the job done when he didn't have overwhelming superiority. but this is the kind of thread that no one is going change their mind about the topic and i've said everything i wanted to say so ciao

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VensersRevenge

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #52 on: 19 July 2019, 16:16:20 »
I agree. My core point, that Kerensky is a character left deliberately vague so that people could interpret him based on their own attitudes toward his actions, and that that is a good thing about Battletech, still stands. Arguing about definitions of where his responsibility was because of my own positive interpretation of his character is just distracting from that point.
...Is this just fantasy?
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dgorsman

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #53 on: 19 July 2019, 16:18:59 »
...before this thread gets locked...

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #54 on: 19 July 2019, 16:27:30 »
The SLDF was not just the Hegemony's army, it was everyone's.
  That's my point. It belonged foremost to the Houses that paid for it, not one of the employees.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #55 on: 19 July 2019, 16:37:29 »
For as impassioned of a debate as this is, there have been relatively few facts and numbers put down. So let's go ahead and add some of those.

First up, in 2784 the combined strength of the Great Houses was 984 regiments (FS: 220, CC: 184, DCMS: 230, FWL: 170, LC: 180). That's opposed by the 613 remaining regiments of the SLDF. As far as the SLDF went, however, that strength was more than enough to double the TH garrison while retaining the same force in the single nearest military district to the TH as was there prior to 2765.

On the naval side, things were substantially better for the SLDF. There they were outnumbered only 402 to 478. However, their ships had HPGs and LF batteries. Additionally, we know there are another  67 warships that the SLDF did not take with them but which were reconstructable (as C*, WoB, & FWL did). That would bring them to near parity but with the SLDF having a substantial advantage due to their centralized location and faster speeds.

We lack information for the experience of both sides, but LoT, both books, make clear that there were a lot of veterans who fought for the entire war. That's considerable experience there and far more than anything that the Houses could establish.

But we do have some anecdotal evidence to suggest that the SLDF ground forces would have been even more ferocious. We know the SLDF suffered a 70% loss of strength between 2765 and 2785. However, if you look at the Royal Commands the average loss across all commands there was 45.92%. That's a substantially better rate than that of the regular command (75.90%).

So with the Royals, the people most committed to defending the Terran Hegemony, they are more experienced, better equipped, and more loyal to their home. But can we provide any data that would suggest they would remain loyal? Yes. For starters, none of the eight units who defected prior to the Exodus were Royal units. Additionally, their loyalty to Kerensky was unquestioned. The idea of leaving the IS should have struck people as insane and yet, among the Royal commands, 93.18% joined him. Even among the Royals, 73.68% chose to leave. Its hard to conjure up a situation where people whose loyalty was that fanatical could be convinced to desert the SLDF.

So perhaps this evidence is enough to suggest that the SLDF could hold the TH against one or some of the houses. But all of this just deals with the SLDF. It doesn't suggest how the SLDF could possibly hold against all. Well, the reality there is that they wouldn't need to. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, the SLDF had plenty of forces to hold the inner third most of each great house as well as strengthen the TH. So if they pulled out, would the Great Houses have remained still? Of course not. The Periphery states would have been undefended. LoT confirms that the LC was more than happy to eat up the RWR in that situation. Would the DC & FS have ignored the OA? Would the CC & FS have ignored the TC? Would the FWL have ignored the MoC? Its hard to believe they would have when their other options would have involved going up against fully armed forces elsewhere.

And on top of that, the outer half of each border, roughly, would no longer have had an SLDF presence. If the LC really wanted to go after the Bolan Thumb, they could have. Or they could pick a fight with the FWL and SLDF. Why would they? The SLDF had plenty of forces to hold the TH and play the houses against each other.

But let's say a Great House did pick a fight against the SLDF. Let's even make it the biggest and baddest with the DCMS. 230 regiments versus the SLDF's 613. The DCMS did not have the means to get every regiment moving, and they certainly wouldn't have stripped the FS and LC borders. Could the DCMS's 84 warships have held off the SLDF's 402(+67)? Its hard to see how.

And these situations are based on the SLDF in 2783, the last year we have been given data prior to the Exodus. Kerensky would have devoted more resources to rebuilding the SLDF and the defenses on each planet. The SLDF would have been stronger. The planets would have been stronger. Relations between the SLDF/TH and the LC, CC, and FS would have been better. With a stronger SLDF I don't see how Barbara Liao or John Davion suddenly get the urge to take it on.
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Daryk

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #56 on: 19 July 2019, 17:08:31 »
I think the things most are missing are nukes.  All the houses had more than plenty, and motivation to use them appeared on Amaris' death.

Edit: Damn too easy mis-key equating to "post"...
« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 17:10:38 by Daryk »

Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #57 on: 19 July 2019, 17:24:32 »
that's the trouble with counterfactuals, they always work in your head because they don't have to stand up to the perils actually happening. i'm arguing both were equally terrible but at least in the stay option he wasn't a deserter.

Kerensky was enough of a strategist to foresee that had he stayed the efforts to break up the SLDF would continue, that they would succeed, and that he would be left with scraps to defend the TH and SL.

He was also enough of a politician to realise that destroying what was left of the SLDF would be a fairly high priority and would make the worlds of the TH  - or any world with an "official" SLDF presence - a target.

Did he serve the SL best by ensuring the SLDF coudl not be sued to detsroy the Inner Sphere? Or should he have abandoned the SLDF and become a farmer? Or should he have stayed as CG of the SLDF and turned every world with the SLDF into a target?

There was no way he was going to win this. So the only question he needed to answer, the only duty he needed to fulfil, was how not to make it worse.

Staying solved nothing. Fighting solved nothing. That left running as his only viable option and, ironically, the one which sent a message that MIGHT have stopped the conflict before it began.

But to avoid the supposed taint of "deserter", you would have him sacrifice millions of civilian lives within the TH to make a meaningless gesture.


"So let me get this straight. You want to fly on a magic carpet to see the King of the Potato People and plead with him for your freedom, and you're telling me you're completely sane?" -- Uncle Arnie

Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #58 on: 19 July 2019, 17:37:06 »
But let's say a Great House did pick a fight against the SLDF. Let's even make it the biggest and baddest with the DCMS. 230 regiments versus the SLDF's 613. The DCMS did not have the means to get every regiment moving, and they certainly wouldn't have stripped the FS and LC borders. Could the DCMS's 84 warships have held off the SLDF's 402(+67)? Its hard to see how.

By having the other four Houses jump on the SLDF while they were distracted with the Combine.

Quote
And these situations are based on the SLDF in 2783, the last year we have been given data prior to the Exodus. Kerensky would have devoted more resources to rebuilding the SLDF and the defenses on each planet. The SLDF would have been stronger. The planets would have been stronger. Relations between the SLDF/TH and the LC, CC, and FS would have been better. With a stronger SLDF I don't see how Barbara Liao or John Davion suddenly get the urge to take it on.

Part of the problem is that the rebuilding efforts of the TH were going very slowly. The SLDFs logisitical base was still devastated in 2784 and entire worlds needed to be rebuilt so they could feed their populations. The TH ability to generate income was also much reduced and the SLDF was heavily reliant on aid, funds and resources from the Great Houses. Those same Houses already had troops on TH worlds, were already annexing TH worlds and were already luring SLDF troops away. Time alone would ensure that as the Houses got stronger, the SLDF became weaker.

Could Kerensky have sat out the wars in the TH? Not really - a lot of his troops would leave for home. Would Davion troopers within the SLDF ignore the Kentares Massacre or the drive on New Avalon? Would Kerenksy have been able to enact an Operation: Silver Shield? Yes - but would the House Lords have stood for it and let it slide the way they let it slide with Blake? Unlikely. Kerensky was a rival, not a neutral party. And it was because he was seen as a rival that the House Lords would want to deal with him.

The ability of Kerensky to even defend just the TH was questionable....it is likely the ONLY troops he could really count on to stay would be the Royal commands. And they weren't enough. Not with House troops already annexing TH worlds and not without a strong support chain which wouldn't exist for another twenty years.

« Last Edit: 19 July 2019, 17:39:37 by Talen5000 »
"So let me get this straight. You want to fly on a magic carpet to see the King of the Potato People and plead with him for your freedom, and you're telling me you're completely sane?" -- Uncle Arnie

MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #59 on: 19 July 2019, 18:35:04 »
You're assuming a level of cooperation between the Successor States that they didn't even exhibit during the Jihad, when they had much more reason to do so.
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