Author Topic: Kerensky...  (Read 12076 times)

Ursus Maior

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #90 on: 22 July 2019, 07:04:12 »
One thing I think we're forgetting would hold the SLDF together and hold the Hegemony together.

A dead Kerensky. 

We have (admittedly non-canonical) evidence that the SLDF could hold a Prefecture X, then consolidate outward.  It also looks like Alexander might not have been able to do it, but as a martyr, it gives the tired troops, and the people of the TH a cause to rally around. 

Now this hypothetical does presume Jerome Blake goes along with it, and that the SLDF troops do as well.  It also condemns them to generations of war.  (Then again the AU Nicki K doesn't appear to be bugnut crazy either.  I personally blame that on the TH having good mental care to help the troops and the survivors.).
This is, in fact, the premise for the Empires Aflame AU. And I must say, this is a very tempting universe for me. I'd adapt some things for my own AU, if I'd ever manage a 2786-onwards campaign, but the idea of a martyr Kerensky is huge.

In fact, DeChavilier might not have been the ideal candidate to hatch a plan as presented in Empires Aflame, he might have been to close to Kerensky, but there would have been numerous other leaders. And some might have thought differently of Kerensky and even DeChavilier after decades of war and with the end of the Star League and the Terran Hegemony facing them.
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Natasha Kerensky

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #91 on: 22 July 2019, 07:47:03 »
  The Star League was the House Lords. They owned the store and the employees had no right to rob it after they closed the doors. Blame the writers for knowing nothing about government.

From a narrow legal perspective, an attorney would argue that because the House Lords had dissolved the Star League, they had rejected any claims on the Star League’s property.  They had destroyed the very government and social contract by which they would have been able to enforce their claims through legislation or judicial action.

From the broader moral perspective, we’re not arguing over bank accounts and oil reserves.  We’re talking about massive numbers of weapons in the face of an inevitable war.  To heck with property claims.  If I agree to sell an old hunting rifle to a neighbor, but that neighbor threatens bodily harm to another neighbor, I’m not selling the rifle, even if there’s a signed and enforceable sales contract on the rifle.  Ensuring that my second neighbor doesn’t get injured or killed by my first neighbor is more important than the legal contract.  It’s the right thing to do.

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How many Germans drove off with their tanks after WW2 ended?

First, unlike the SLDF, Germany didn’t have the largest and most advanced military ever fielded in history at the end of WWII.

Second, even if it did, Germany wasn’t surrounded by five other nations that were girding for war.
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Lynx

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #92 on: 22 July 2019, 08:11:21 »
How many Germans drove off with their tanks after WW2 ended?
This jogged a memory, so I went looking. Factually, at least one German did drive off with a German tank.... and an Acht-Acht apparently.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-33381772

EDIT: Technically a little not quite right, as the guy is a little too young to have served. Probably a collector, but someone definitely drove off somewhere with that tank before it got into his hands.

And in terms of "collectible" tanks, there are quite a number of privately owned German tanks. Over the years they gradually wore out or were collected up, but to this day you can still find tanks in private hands.
« Last Edit: 22 July 2019, 08:15:16 by Lynx »

Cannonshop

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #93 on: 22 July 2019, 08:30:37 »
He wasn’t supposed to.  Kerensky was a military commander, not a civilian governor.  He had Richard’s 11-year (not 20-year) regency thrust upon him by the House Lords.

More importantly, Kerensky no longer held the reins of power when Richard came of age.  Kerensky’s role became advisory, and Amaris convinced Richard to exercise that power in ways (ordering House militaries disbanded, raising Periphery taxes) that were not in Richard’s or the Star League’s best interest.  Those mistakes were not Kerensky’s.  They were Richard’s, as Amaris’s catspaw.

Kerensky’s only failure during the regency was not seeing Amaris for the threat he truly was and removing his influence over Richard.  But there’s no evidence that anyone — from Richard to the House Lords to SLDF intelligence — did either.

That’s simply not true.  From SAS spec ops in the Periphery campaigns to tricking Caspars with decoys before fleet jumps in the TH, we see Kerensky and the SLDF employing a variety of strategies and tactics during the Amaris Crisis.

There’s no in-universe evidence for this statement, and it’s unsupported with any concrete alternatives.

There’s no evidence of “looting” by the SLDF, in the TH or anywhere else in the Star League.

There is extensive evidence of looting and worse by Amaris’s RWR and mercenary forces in the TH.  The Greenhaven Gestapo literally looted the Vatican.  Civilians were forced underground and left to die in Appalachia — the SLDF had to execute the few insanely inhuman survivors years later.  As the RWR retreated, it used nuclear weapons to “salt” entire worlds radioactively.  Gigantic O’Neill space stations were destroyed, along with the tens of thousands of souls who lived on them.  The sunshades that maintained Venus’s climate were destroyed.  The list goes on and on.

Civil government in the TH ceased to exist during the Amaris Crisis.  Even Sarna makes that clear.

There is no evidence Kerensky took taxpayer property, for reasons of vanity or anything else.

Kerensky did not take, or try to take, the regency.  He was appointed Protector and Regent of the Star League by the House Lords because Richard Cameron was 8 years old when his father Simon died and Richard became First Lord.

Again Kerensky was appointed Protector and Regent by the House Lords.  He could not be “rebuffed” from a position he had been appointed to.

Kerensky never acted as if he was the civilian leader of the Star League government.  He served the First Lord and the House Lords on the First Council.

There’s no evidence for any of this.  It’s all made up.

Out of hundreds, the SLDF lost only a couple handfuls of divisions and regiments to the Houses before the Exodus.

During the Exodus, out of hundreds of warships and jumpships, only one had a significant rebellion.

It was only after Kerensky’s death that Pentagon society broke apart, necessitating the Second Exodus.

These numbers and timeline speak to Kerensky’s ability to keep millions of individuals working together towards common goals over many decades.  His error, if any, was not realizing how dependent they were on his leadership and setting up a proper succession plan to maintain that remarkable cohesion after his death.

Where (sources and page numbers)?  What narcissistic statements, specifically?

Which family members and friends handed Kerensky his ranks?  Where (sources and page numbers)?

This is gobbledygook.  Kerensky is depicted as quiet and reserved, not charismatic.  There is no such term as “political sociopathic”.  There is no evidence that Kerensky engaged in “vicious revenge fantasies”.

Where is Kerensky described as ambitious uber alles?  Sources and page numbers?

This is just made up.  Kerensky never asked to be reappointed Protector and Regent after Richard came of age or after Richard’s death.  Kerensky asked the House Lords to choose a new First Lord from among their number.  They chose instead to dissolve the Star League.

They weren’t toys.  They were weapons, some of mass destruction, and the lives of the men and women that crewed and supplied them. 

And they didn’t belong to the House Lords.  They belonged to the Star League.  And the Star League no longer existed.

That equipment was not his to take.  The equipment from the Royal divisions in particular belonged to the people of the Terran Hegemony, equipment contributed by the other states was likewise the property of those states via the Star League-while the council was dissolved, the state was not.  He did not own what he took, further, he did not own the nonmilitary supplies he took, nor were they legally paid for. *(Hence, Looting.  Theft executed in a time of emergency.  aka Brigandage.)

the origin of his authority? remember that? was a personal connection to the previous First Lord, he did not EARN his rank by working up through the ranks, he was essentially promoted ahead of others due to his personal connections alone.

His "Genius" is neither evident in the documented battles in fiction, nor in the historical record.  His use of massed frontal assaults, however, IS documented.

repeatedly, and his profligate use of bodies instead of bullets is also demonstrated repeatedly.

It's probably clearer to say that his 'genius' is in proportion to the inability of his peers, and possibly due to being a rather good heavy equipment operator.

His inability to govern is shown by the regency period-an able administrator would not have allowed most of the pre-stages Amaris used to survive for long. an able negotiator would have handled the uprising more effectively.  both of those are key traits for a GENERAL OFFICER, so he flunks that one too.

The final example of his inability to govern is the Pentagon Worlds situation-even with a host of followers who would die on his every word, he was unable to maintain order or discipline  in the ranks once the magic of his personality wore off and the reality of their situation set in.

a situation HE created, and was only able to achieve, by way of his personal charisma, because he didn't have the chops to do it on a straight intellectual or skills basis.

This inability to govern-a role he held for 20 years PRIOR to the Amaris coup, is why nobody on the Star League Council wanted to give him the job, and it was that refusal to give him the job, that triggered his 'exit strategy' of looting (that is, stealing equipment, survival gear, expertise, data, technology and personnel)  property that was not his to take for a purpse that was not his right to pursue with that equipment.

what is it he did? He took 80% of the military resources of the Star League, with him, in an act of desertion and outright treason.  His act fails the Law, Morality and Ethics test, period.

He did not have teh Legal right.
He did not have the Moral right.
He did not have the ETHICAL right.

he chose his personal ideals, his personal political ambitions over-and-above any considerations of Duty, and with it Honor.  This was an act of criminal conspiracy that cost tens to hundreds of billions of the citizens his forces were allegedly created to protect their lives, homes, worlds, livelihoods and future.

This act of outright, utter betrayal was papered over by propaganda from his supporters, but the fact is, his army had zero possible alternatives to what they did-falling into internal strife as happens with *(historically) pretty much EVERY bandit-king who founds his kingdom on a foundation of desertion and treason.
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abou

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #94 on: 22 July 2019, 08:40:03 »

Natasha Kerensky

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #95 on: 22 July 2019, 11:25:47 »
That equipment was not his to take.

It arguably was.  The House Lords never asked or ordered the SLDF to turn over its weapons.  And they dissolved the government through which they could have pressed any legal claim to those weapons, had they wanted them in the first place.

The House Lords left the SLDF’s equipment in Kerensky’s hands.  History shows that Kerensky did the right thing by taking those weapons out of the reach of the House Lords before the Succession Wars hit.

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Hence, Looting.

You can’t loot something from someone if they don’t ask for or want it.

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the origin of his authority? remember that? was a personal connection to the previous First Lord,

The Commanding General of the SLDF better have a personal relationship with the First Lord.

But there’s no evidence that there was anything improper in Kerensky’s relationship with Simon or that he was appointed over more qualified candidates because of any personal connections.

We can’t just make stuff up.

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he did not EARN his rank by working up through the ranks, he was essentially promoted ahead of others due to his personal connections alone.

When?  Where?  Books and page numbers?

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His use of massed frontal assaults, however, IS documented.

When?  Where?  Books and page numbers?

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repeatedly, and his profligate use of bodies instead of bullets is also demonstrated repeatedly.

This is a silly statement.  The SLDF didn’t use catapults to fling soldiers at the RWR instead of shooting.

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It's probably clearer to say that his 'genius' is in proportion to the inability of his peers, and possibly due to being a rather good heavy equipment operator.

Heavy equipment operator?  This is more nonsensical gibberish.

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His inability to govern is shown by the regency period-an able administrator would not have allowed most of the pre-stages Amaris used to survive for long.

No one recognized the threat that Amaris posed.  Had Kerensky known of Amaris’s plans or intent, Amaris would have been removed from the court and the Rim Worlds neutralized.

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an able negotiator would have handled the uprising more effectively.

Amaris fueled the Periphery secession movements using weapons and troops amassed on secret bases in the Periphery for decades.  Kerensky and the SLDF had no idea who and what they were actually fighting until Amaris executed Richard.

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The final example of his inability to govern is the Pentagon Worlds situation-even with a host of followers who would die on his every word, he was unable to maintain order or discipline  in the ranks once the magic of his personality wore off and the reality of their situation set in.

This is more goofiness.  Kerensky’s personality didn’t wear off.  He died.  It was his death that led to the Second Exodus, not an inability to lead.

You gotta get some basic facts straight.

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This inability to govern-a role he held for 20 years PRIOR to the Amaris coup

Kerensky was Protector and Regent for only 11 years, from 2751 (Simon’s death) to 2762 (Richard’s majority).

Again, you gotta get some basic facts straight.

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is why nobody on the Star League Council wanted to give him the job, and it was that refusal to give him the job,

This is just made up.

The House Lords on the First Council appointed Kerensky Protector and Regent in 2751.  They wanted to give Kerensky “the job”, and they gave it to him.

Again, we can’t make stuff up.

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He did not have teh Legal right.
He did not have the Moral right.
He did not have the ETHICAL right.

Again, legally, the House Lords made no claims to the SLDF, and they dissolved the government through which they could have pressed such claims.

Morally and ethically, the history of the early Succession Wars shows that Kerensky did the right thing by taking the SLDF out of the grasp of House Lords, regardless of the (nonexistent) legal framework.

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he chose his personal ideals, his personal political ambitions over-and-above any considerations of Duty, and with it Honor.

Where is it stated that Kerensky had an ambitious personality?  Or that he placed ambition above duty?  Books and page numbers?

We can’t just make stuff up.

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This was an act of criminal conspiracy

What is it stated that there was a conspiracy, criminal or otherwise?  Who else was in on it?  Books and page numbers?

We can’t just make stuff up.

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This act of outright, utter betrayal was papered over by propaganda from his supporters, but the fact is, his army had zero possible alternatives to what they did

This is nonsensical.  If the SLDF had “zero possible alternatives”, then we can’t blame Kerensky for the choices he made.  He took the only path that was available.  That’s not Kerensky’s fault.
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El Kabong

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #96 on: 22 July 2019, 11:42:30 »
Based on the stuff I've read, Kerensky must have been highly charismatic - Convincing the SL Army to Exodus, he must have had something going for him.

It seems clear to me, based on the Liberation of Terra campaign, that he was not the strategic genius that he is made out to be.

Consider the possibility: Kerensky was appointed because he was seen as a a starry-eyed idealist, an easily manipulated tool for the ambition of the First Lords.  They simply underestimated his idealism and overestimated his malleability.

IMO, Aleksandr didn't have the will to do what was NECESSARY for the survival of the Star League.  His "military genius" is questionable at best.  Of course, in-universe, he is seen through rose colored glasses as some larger than life figure.

After scrutiny, we have a milquetoast general loved by the troops but didn't have the iron spine that the BTU has credited him with.
« Last Edit: 22 July 2019, 11:46:19 by El Kabong »

The_Livewire

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #97 on: 22 July 2019, 12:49:21 »
This is, in fact, the premise for the Empires Aflame AU. And I must say, this is a very tempting universe for me. I'd adapt some things for my own AU, if I'd ever manage a 2786-onwards campaign, but the idea of a martyr Kerensky is huge.

In fact, DeChavilier might not have been the ideal candidate to hatch a plan as presented in Empires Aflame, he might have been to close to Kerensky, but there would have been numerous other leaders. And some might have thought differently of Kerensky and even DeChavilier after decades of war and with the end of the Star League and the Terran Hegemony facing them.

Yeah, EA is my source for that. I so enjoy that setting. 
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Mohammed As`Zaman Bey

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #98 on: 22 July 2019, 13:26:58 »
Again, legally, the House Lords made no claims to the SLDF, and they dissolved the government through which they could have pressed such claims.
  As the only existing administrators of the SL, the Houses didn't have to declare their claim to the SLDF, they were partners in its ownership, major financiers, and in the absence of any CEO, the ONLY legal authority and owners of the Star League. The TH was an equal member, and, as pointed out earlier, there were TH worlds untouched by Amaris with legal claim to TH authority, ignored by the writers.

  The SL was never a government, like the League of nation and UN, it was a club that wielded enough power to force smaller nations into compliance. The SL has no authority over the Houses, the same way the UN has no authority over its members, but violates its charter against small nations with impunity. The SL was a club of wolves that would hold votes on which of the sheep would be their dinner.

  Despite being a horrible read, the SBSL has all the information that supports my contentions. 

Natasha Kerensky

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #99 on: 22 July 2019, 16:11:00 »

  As the only existing administrators of the SL, the Houses didn't have to declare their claim to the SLDF, they were partners in its ownership, major financiers, and in the absence of any CEO, the ONLY legal authority and owners of the Star League.

The House Lords dissolved the Star League partnership.  They gave up their interest.  They didn’t want to lay claim to the SLDF.  They wanted to go to war with each other.

And even if the Star League had not been dissolved and even if the House Lords had laid claim to the SLDF — neither of which happened — the history of the early Succession Wars clearly shows that Kerensky did the morally right thing by taking the SLDF’s weapons out of the reach of the House Lords.

Legal technicalities — of which there were none left — do not trump the bazillions of lives saved by keeping the SLDF’s WMDs, warships, battlemechs, and other weapons out of the Succession Wars.

Without breaking Rule #4, history is replete with brave people breaking all kinds of laws to reduce bloodshed and save individuals, families, and entire persecuted peoples in advance of and during wars.  We don’t go back after the armistice and say, well, you saved the orphanage, but we’re going to send you heroes to jail for smuggling those innocent children across our border.  That’s just nutty and ethically wrong.

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The TH was an equal member, and, as pointed out earlier, there were TH worlds untouched by Amaris with legal claim to TH authority, ignored by the writers.

This makes no sense.  Even if the entire remaining SLDF defended the TH, it’s been shown upthread that the SLDF was still outnumbered.

Now we’re going to divide the SLDF six ways, pump up the House armies with five-sixths of that force, and leave the TH with only one-sixth of the remaining SLDF to defend itself?  That’s ridiculous.  The TH has gone from slightly outnumbered to grossly outnumbered in this silly scenario.

More to the point, even if the House Lords had laid claim to the SLDF, how do you divide it up?  Do the Cappies get more warships because they’re a smaller state?  Do we penalize the Snakes because they were the least cooperative during the Amaris Crisis and are agitating the most for war afterwards?  Does that regiment of FedRats and Elsies go to the Suns or the Commonwealth?  What happens to the citizenship and rights of the enlisted and officers when the SLDF is no more and they’re sent to serve in a military other than their home nation?  If they’re sent to serve a nation at war with their home nation?  If five House Lords can’t agree on how to keep a government functioning, how are they going to agree on how to divvy up the largest and most advanced military in history?

Even if there was a legal claim and no moral obstacles, there’s no practical or even workable solution here.   

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The SL was never a government, like the League of nation and UN, it was a club that wielded enough power to force smaller nations into compliance. The SL has no authority over the Houses, the same way the UN has no authority over its members, but violates its charter against small nations with impunity. The SL was a club of wolves that would hold votes on which of the sheep would be their dinner.

What does this diatribe about the Star League and its Member States have to do with Kerensky?

If the House Lords are the wolves you make them out to be, then that just shows once more that Kerensky did the ethically right thing in ensuring that those wolves did not prey upon the sheep with the SLDF’s weapons.

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Despite being a horrible read, the SBSL has all the information that supports my contentions.

Feel free to quote chapter and verse.
« Last Edit: 22 July 2019, 20:11:39 by Natasha Kerensky »
"Ah, yes.  The belle dame sans merci.  The sweet young thing who will blast your nuts off.  The kitten with a whip.  That mystique?"
"Slavish adherence to formal ritual is a sign that one has nothing better to think about."
"Variety is the spice of battle."
"I've fought in... what... a hundred battles, a thousand battles?  It could be a million as far as I know.  I've fought for anybody who offered a decent contract and a couple who didn't.  And the universe is not much different after all that.  I could go on fighting for another hundred years and it would still look the same."
"I'm in mourning for my life."
"Those who break faith with the Unity shall go down into darkness."

Tyler Jorgensson

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #100 on: 22 July 2019, 16:17:18 »
So my two cents a bit late to the party.

Their is a clear difference between Aleksander and Nicholas Kerensky. With the elders death in the Pentagon uprisings as well as DeChevaliers the loyalty they had to the SLDF was shattered. Nicholas led one group to found the Clans (based on a variety of personality traits: some good, some bad), while others stayed and fought. Factions stuck to one ideal or the other but many reverted to their original nationalities identity.

When the war was finished against Amaris the SLDF and the Hegemony were shattered. A lot had been destroyed, a lot looted, a lot burned, and many billions (?) were dead. The SLDF has been fighting for a long time: first against the Periphery and the Secret Army and then against the RWR and finally the brutal campaign to take back the Hegemony. Many wanted peace, many had medical problems, and many wanted to go back to the way it was.

However the Successor States has spent those years building  up their militaries no longer under the watchful eye of the SLDF. The SLDF has outnumbered them by margins before all that war and they had the technological superiority and the Warship Fleets to back up their claims. They could have fought outright two full Nations at the same time, but remember the Successor States could never cooperate with each other on such a massive scale. Publicly three of the Rulers were hostile or angry at Kerensky by the time he met with him, but ALL of them had the look of hungry cannibals staring at the half dead corpse of the Hegemony.

Their first act was to strip the realms greatest hero of his power and attempt to demilitarize the infamous SLDF to a more peacetime army. With this done they could attempt to pick apart the carcass with little repercussions. With no Lord and Protector to govern they essentially stripped even the puppet government of their powers. Alek was not powerless but he feared another round of wars.

His actions to run were one of many scenarios suggested, from a coup of the Hegemony to backing one candidate or another, to fighting the States. His option chose to remove the SLDF and the technology they possessed from the equation. Sure was it a bit petty? I don’t know but it was his best option on his opinion. His second action was to back Blake and the creation of ComStar (the last legitimate TH  branch of government) into holding the crown jewel of the galaxy away from the Lords and jackals who wanted it.

Too many of the SLDF were loyal to Alek and the League as a whole but several did decide to stay for one reason or another: absorbed into mercenary troops or Armies. Even Blake had a core of warriors to form the eventual Com Guards.

Finally on the issue of equipment. The SLDF has at its core the Terran Hegemony and its Royal Divisions. Comprised of the best tech, pilots, and equipment money could buy. In addition they had the more numerous non-royal commands raised in their branches of the Successor States equipped from their factories all across the galaxy and staffed from their bajillion academies and recruiting centers. Given the chance to fight against their original homes I would think (and I’m sure somewhere in FM: SLDF it would confirm) that the SLDF has orders not to deploy garrisons against their former compatriots or families. That being said they had 20 ARMIES and FLEETS. They were the equivalent to Rome versus the rest of the world in their heyday.

Lastly hindsight is 20/20....


P.S the Prinz Eugen mutiny’s has eight ships IIRC, and the counter attack was led by Nicholas K and Andrey K against Alek’s ideas of negotiation. Just an FYI.

skiltao

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #101 on: 22 July 2019, 22:29:57 »
IMO, Aleksandr didn't have the will to do what was NECESSARY for the survival of the Star League. 

Y'know, I completely forgot that the SLDF actually tried to get Kerensky to depose the High Council.

Despite being a horrible read, the SBSL has all the information that supports my contentions.

Perhaps we are not reading the same book? My copy of the SLSB consistently refers to the Star League as a government and discusses it passing laws, enforcing laws, collecting taxes, minting currency, and generally performing the functions governments are expected to perform. (Heck, the Lyran state even considered dissolving its own government and operating purely as subjects of the Star League! HS:LC, p39 [Edit: p35 /Edit])

Glancing quickly, I'm not sure that the SLSB defines what the High Council can and can't order the SLDF's commander to do in the event they refuse to elect a First Lord. I notice that they asked Kerensky to resign as commander of the SLDF rather than simply removing him outright, and SLDF units were being approached by recruiters instead of being ordered to join the House militaries.

The House Lords never asked or ordered the SLDF to turn over its weapons.  And they dissolved the government through which they could have pressed any legal claim to those weapons

...interesting. The SLDF continued to exist as an organization, the Star League mints apparently continued to operate, and each Lord eventually declared themselves First Lord, so it seems as though the Star League was never officially dissolved; in order to legally divvy up Star League assets, the House Lords would have had to do it through the auspices of the High Council, which they disbanded without ever agreeing to any such thing.

So Kerensky would actually have a legal obligation to keep SLDF assets out of the hands of the House Lords.

Weird.
« Last Edit: 24 July 2019, 19:23:57 by skiltao »
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RifleMech

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #102 on: 23 July 2019, 07:33:43 »
Kerensky had every right and obligation to avenge Amaris' treason and murder of the First Lord and the entire Cameron family.

By attacking the RWR, Kerensky showed good military sense to gather his troops instead of immediately attacking the most advanced defenses knowing to man. He also eliminated any reinforcements by the RWR and fighting a two front war. By taking the RWR, he also gained a place to obtain needed supplies and replacements since few would be coming from normal supply channels. As for just massing his troops and going at the Hegemony, there was little else he could do facing defenses he had helped prepare. He needed numbers to defeat those defenses. He also couldn't bypass them and risk attacks from the rear. 

The Star League was not disbanded. The High Council was.  Before that the house Lords installed Blake as Minister of Communications and ordered Kerensky to demilitarize Terra and disperse the SLDF back to their prewar locations. So Kerensky still had legal authority of the SLDF.

Unlike McKenna, Kerensky failed to keep the Hegemony government running. He allowed the citizens kill those who were in government for helping Amaris. That left the Hegemony without any civilian leadership. The closest the Hegemony had to a civilian leader was Blake. I think this was Kerensky's biggest mistake. If he had kept a government running maybe things would have been different. They could have rebuilt faster and maybe it would have been worth staying. As it was most of the Hegemony was left without leadership.

As far as the Exodus goes Kerensky did have a moral and legal obligation to keep the SLDFs weapons from the hands of the House Lords. Desertions were happening as the House Lords poached SLDF units. The big question concerns Kerensky's obligation to defending the Terran Hegemony and the SLDF. Did he do a better job of defending the Hegemony by removing the SLDF and its weapons from the field, or would it have been better if he'd stayed and took an active part in things? I don't know. I am sure that more SLDF's would have left. I'm also not sure the SLDF could have held out.

The SLDF could have taken a House or two, maybe but not all five. The space defenses were shattered as was the Hegemony's industry. That means that Kerensky couldn't make up losses the way the Houses could. The only reason Terra wasn't taken was ComStar's threat of a blackout. If Kerensky had stayed they would have been an added deterrent but as time passed, more troops would have deserted for the houses or merc life. The Houses also would have been conducting false flag raids against the Hegemony constantly. And with the way WMD were tossed about the'd of been used in raids to get past troops and cover their tracks. That of course begs for retaliation. Ultimately I think it was better that Kerensky had left.

I think Kerensky made two more big mistakes. The first mistake was not creating new groups once the SLDF arrived in the Pentagon Worlds. This was one thing Nicky did right. He eliminated the old bonds and loyalties to Houses that Alex allowed to remain. The other was not really creating a new government with some kind of succession. Instead he kept military rule and that broke after his death.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #103 on: 23 July 2019, 10:48:23 »
There seem to be a lot of posts claiming that the 5 Great Houses would inevitably gang up against the Star League and Terran Hegemony if Kerensky stayed.  That flies in the face of logic, where the Great Houses were perfectly willing to pick off stray worlds while they were left undefended, but were more likely to go after each other rather than face a Star League army (even if significantly depleted) over one.  Two of the Houses were problematical, but that's most likely still well within the abilities of the remaining SLDF to handle for a few more years, until the TH rebuilds and essentially becomes a 6th Great House somewhat stronger than the rest.

The problem was that Kerensky himself didn't deal with the underlying civilian problems, and nobody else took the initiative.  Basically, while he was playing the part of general, nobody was minding the store as a civilian authority, at least not until he abandoned the TH to its fate and Blake stepped into the power vacuum.  Whether he technically had any legal responsibility for the civilian government's situation or not, as the de facto remaining authority, he needed to act, but didn't.  As a result, he was then faced with a steadily deteriorating diplomatic, economic, and military situation, and then rather rationally chose to bail rather than sit it out to its inevitable conclusion, inevitable primarily because he failed to act when there was still a chance.

It's not the act of leaving that I see as a failure, but that the need to leave was created by his earlier failure while there was still something left to save.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #104 on: 23 July 2019, 12:01:20 »
There seem to be a lot of posts claiming that the 5 Great Houses would inevitably gang up against the Star League and Terran Hegemony if Kerensky stayed.  That flies in the face of logic, where the Great Houses were perfectly willing to pick off stray worlds while they were left undefended, but were more likely to go after each other rather than face a Star League army (even if significantly depleted) over one.

The Great Houses took on New Dallas, Inglesmond and others that were defended.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest they would bypass the TH once the war started.

Kerensky staying would delay the war as the Houses put mote and more effort into poaching SLDF and their success rate would only accelerate as the de facto death of the SLDF became more and more apparent. You would also see troops and units returning to their homes but even if you assume just half of the SLDF left, what would be left would not be enough to defend the TH.

You would also see the Houses continuing their efforts at annexation and worlds such as Inglesmond, New Dallas and Deiron which resisted annexation would inevitably be subsumed into their neighbours.

The war would start with the Houses stronger than they were in the main timeline, with more of the TH worlds and industry already under their control and with the TH world's better defended but not with the strength of the full SLDF.

The fighting would inevitably start between the Houses, and the TH wouldn't be spared.

Quote
until the TH rebuilds and essentially becomes a 6th Great House somewhat stronger than the rest.

The TH rebuilding effort was progressing very slowly, and was heavily dependent on House supplies and House troops. The more developed and most recovered worlds of the Hegemony were also prime targets for annexation, something the SLDF seemed unable to prevent in the main timeline.

Quote
The problem was that Kerensky himself didn't deal with the underlying civilian problems, and nobody else took the initiative.  Basically, while he was playing the part of general, nobody was minding the store as a civilian authority, at least not until he abandoned the TH to its fate and Blake stepped into the power vacuum.  Whether he technically had any legal responsibility for the civilian government's situation or not, as the de facto remaining authority, he needed to act, but didn't.

Part of the problem here is that the remaining TH government was fragmented and not working together. Those few worlds that retained any significant industry were usually more interested in self preservation rather than working together. Kerensky meanwhile was hobbled by the problem that he wasn't a TH representation, but a member of the Star League and his legal authority over the TH was limited.
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #105 on: 23 July 2019, 12:53:34 »
Strategic points to consider:

House Davion would not have joined the dogpile on the Hegemony unless it was to fight off Liao or Kurita troops.  In canon, with Kerensky GONE, Davion waited because he didn't want to be seen as a greedy warmonger.

Liao would be more focused on Marik, and Steiner was interested in the RWR and Bolan Thumb.  Threats would have been the DCMS and FWLM for Kerensky to deal with in the near term.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #106 on: 23 July 2019, 13:58:59 »
The problem was that Kerensky himself didn't deal with the underlying civilian problems, and nobody else took the initiative.  Basically, while he was playing the part of general, nobody was minding the store as a civilian authority, at least not until he abandoned the TH to its fate and Blake stepped into the power vacuum.  Whether he technically had any legal responsibility for the civilian government's situation or not, as the de facto remaining authority, he needed to act, but didn't.

In Kerensky’s defense, there is substantial evidence in the canon sources that the SLDF took steps to stabilize and rebuild infrastructure on TH worlds after they were liberated.  Early on, this probably also involved declaring martial law (or something like it) for some weeks or months after liberation.

I think there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Kerensky could have gone farther and installed a temporary government for a couple or few years.  With civilian representation, judiciary, and bureaucracy in tatters, it probably would have been little more than a military junta consisting of Kerensky and some handpicked commanders, with the SLDF as its executive arm and the SLDF JAG stepping into the judicial role.

That said, no matter how well-intentioned, there are lots of drawbacks to installing a military government.  Even if Kerensky made clear that the situation was temporary and took parallel steps to form a permanent civilian government, there would inevitably have been accusations that Kerensky was installing himself as dictator and taking power for himself. 

Most vocal would have been the House Lords, who, with some legitimacy, could claim that Kerensky was far overstepping his bounds as SLDF commander.  Some of the most aggressive House Lords, like Minoru Kurita, would likely have used the formation of Kerensky’s military junta as a pretext for war.

Aside from the bad diplomatic optics, there would have been other risks, too.

After 20 years of war and with their home nations girding for more, the SLDF risked suddenly losing a lot of it manpower to defections and discharges if it’s officers and enlisted were asked or ordered to stay in the TH permanently.  It’s one thing to ask a soldier to help liberate a nation.  It’s another to ask him to adopt that nation, put down roots, live there, and become a citizen.

There was also the risk that the TH populace, or at least large elements of it, would not have welcomed SLDF rule.  It’s one thing to ask a citizen to be grateful to a military for liberating them.  It’s another to ask a citizen to accept military rule, especially after years of being abused at the hands of another military.  Sometimes all it takes is one unfair JAG judgement while acting as a civilian judiciary — or one hot-headed soldier who pulls his trigger at protestors when he shouldn’t — to start a mass uprising that a military government can only put down through downward cycles of repression.

And there was also the risk that the TH could not form a competent civilian government.  The First Lord and Camerons had been at the top of the TH leadership.  Who replaces them?  Is there other nobility that can step into the vacuum?  If so, how is that family and ruler picked?  If not, what form does the government take and who gets to decide?  Can you get a couple hundred worlds to agree on a constitution and some form of representation?  What do you do when some worlds inevitably do not agree to the terms?  Send in the SLDF against the TH citizenry it’s trying to protect?

The reality is that except for the FRR and other small exceptions, the Great Houses and other major governments of the Inner Sphere were largely formed through decades of conquest, not a year or two of constitutional congresses.  Expecting the worlds of the former TH to deviate from that norm is probably unrealistic.

Maybe Kerensky should have tried and failed and then activated the Exodus.  That might have been a more satisfying story for some of us.

But forming a coherent civilian government out of the tatters of the TH at the end of Amaris Crisis and before the Succession Wars hit was no slam dunk either.  It’s also satisfying to think that Kerensky and his inner circle probably thought through that option and saw that it was too fraught with unknowns to pursue.
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #107 on: 23 July 2019, 16:44:01 »
...who gets to decide?
THAT is the ultimate question... ALWAYS.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #108 on: 23 July 2019, 16:48:01 »
Give me Lauren Hayes anyday. Alex K was ok, but he should have stayed and barring that, trusted Andery more.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #109 on: 24 July 2019, 05:25:42 »
There seem to be a lot of posts claiming that the 5 Great Houses would inevitably gang up against the Star League and Terran Hegemony if Kerensky stayed.  That flies in the face of logic, where the Great Houses were perfectly willing to pick off stray worlds while they were left undefended, but were more likely to go after each other rather than face a Star League army (even if significantly depleted) over one.  Two of the Houses were problematical, but that's most likely still well within the abilities of the remaining SLDF to handle for a few more years, until the TH rebuilds and essentially becomes a 6th Great House somewhat stronger than the rest.

It isn't so much that the Houses get together and gang up on the Hegemony. They would continue to poach troops, depleting the SLDF's numbers. They'd also conduct raids to gain equipment and tech when theirs begins to degrade, and they'd conduct false flag operations to provoke the SLDF into attacking their enemies. All while trying to get the Hegemony to ally with them.




Quote
The problem was that Kerensky himself didn't deal with the underlying civilian problems, and nobody else took the initiative.  Basically, while he was playing the part of general, nobody was minding the store as a civilian authority, at least not until he abandoned the TH to its fate and Blake stepped into the power vacuum.  Whether he technically had any legal responsibility for the civilian government's situation or not, as the de facto remaining authority, he needed to act, but didn't.  As a result, he was then faced with a steadily deteriorating diplomatic, economic, and military situation, and then rather rationally chose to bail rather than sit it out to its inevitable conclusion, inevitable primarily because he failed to act when there was still a chance.

It's not the act of leaving that I see as a failure, but that the need to leave was created by his earlier failure while there was still something left to save.

Exactly. If he had at least kept the existing government in place, minus RWR personnel, then there wouldn't have been a power vacuum and the Hegemony could have recovered. As it was the Hegemony was in shambles.



Strategic points to consider:

House Davion would not have joined the dogpile on the Hegemony unless it was to fight off Liao or Kurita troops.  In canon, with Kerensky GONE, Davion waited because he didn't want to be seen as a greedy warmonger.

Liao would be more focused on Marik, and Steiner was interested in the RWR and Bolan Thumb.  Threats would have been the DCMS and FWLM for Kerensky to deal with in the near term.

There would have been false flag operations going on though. For example, Kuritans would love to get the Davions in trouble with Kerensky. And to cover their tracks, nukes. This would anger
Kerensky even more. Eventually he'd have to act. Should he some how figure it out it'd be too late as he's at war with the Davions.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #110 on: 24 July 2019, 12:10:27 »
If false-flag operations were really so simple, why weren't they being carried out already?
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #111 on: 24 July 2019, 12:19:00 »
If false-flag operations were really so simple, why weren't they being carried out already?

who says they weren't?  It's almost elemental that at least one or two of the Great Houses would have been carrying out false-flag ops as soon as they had their hostages back, or even before.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #112 on: 24 July 2019, 12:45:19 »
Exactly. If he had at least kept the existing government in place, minus RWR personnel, then there wouldn't have been a power vacuum and the Hegemony could have recovered. As it was the Hegemony was in shambles.

What existing government?

The TH government was RWR lackeys, and the few existing plametary governments that remained  functional were mote worried about local issues then in cooperating with their neighbours.
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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #113 on: 24 July 2019, 22:34:54 »
In Kerensky’s defense, there is substantial evidence in the canon sources that the SLDF took steps to stabilize and rebuild infrastructure on TH worlds after they were liberated.  Early on, this probably also involved declaring martial law (or something like it) for some weeks or months after liberation.

I think there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Kerensky could have gone farther and installed a temporary government for a couple or few years.  With civilian representation, judiciary, and bureaucracy in tatters, it probably would have been little more than a military junta consisting of Kerensky and some handpicked commanders, with the SLDF as its executive arm and the SLDF JAG stepping into the judicial role.

That said, no matter how well-intentioned, there are lots of drawbacks to installing a military government.  Even if Kerensky made clear that the situation was temporary and took parallel steps to form a permanent civilian government, there would inevitably have been accusations that Kerensky was installing himself as dictator and taking power for himself. 

Most vocal would have been the House Lords, who, with some legitimacy, could claim that Kerensky was far overstepping his bounds as SLDF commander.  Some of the most aggressive House Lords, like Minoru Kurita, would likely have used the formation of Kerensky’s military junta as a pretext for war.

Aside from the bad diplomatic optics, there would have been other risks, too.

After 20 years of war and with their home nations girding for more, the SLDF risked suddenly losing a lot of it manpower to defections and discharges if it’s officers and enlisted were asked or ordered to stay in the TH permanently.  It’s one thing to ask a soldier to help liberate a nation.  It’s another to ask him to adopt that nation, put down roots, live there, and become a citizen.

There was also the risk that the TH populace, or at least large elements of it, would not have welcomed SLDF rule.  It’s one thing to ask a citizen to be grateful to a military for liberating them.  It’s another to ask a citizen to accept military rule, especially after years of being abused at the hands of another military.  Sometimes all it takes is one unfair JAG judgement while acting as a civilian judiciary — or one hot-headed soldier who pulls his trigger at protestors when he shouldn’t — to start a mass uprising that a military government can only put down through downward cycles of repression.

And there was also the risk that the TH could not form a competent civilian government.  The First Lord and Camerons had been at the top of the TH leadership.  Who replaces them?  Is there other nobility that can step into the vacuum?  If so, how is that family and ruler picked?  If not, what form does the government take and who gets to decide?  Can you get a couple hundred worlds to agree on a constitution and some form of representation?  What do you do when some worlds inevitably do not agree to the terms?  Send in the SLDF against the TH citizenry it’s trying to protect?

The reality is that except for the FRR and other small exceptions, the Great Houses and other major governments of the Inner Sphere were largely formed through decades of conquest, not a year or two of constitutional congresses.  Expecting the worlds of the former TH to deviate from that norm is probably unrealistic.

Maybe Kerensky should have tried and failed and then activated the Exodus.  That might have been a more satisfying story for some of us.

But forming a coherent civilian government out of the tatters of the TH at the end of Amaris Crisis and before the Succession Wars hit was no slam dunk either.  It’s also satisfying to think that Kerensky and his inner circle probably thought through that option and saw that it was too fraught with unknowns to pursue.
just a moment to clarify here, but was Kerensky legally the CG of the Star League Defense Force when he initiated Exodus?  We know he was stripped of Protectorship, which would tend to suggest he was demoted back to the ranks and no longer could claim an omnibus of powers he'd had when he HAD that title.  Further, the Star League's bureaucracy was damaged but it wasn't rendered non-functional by the dissolution of the council.  *(this would be similar to the U.S. Government ceasing to function because Congress went into recess.)

as for Kerensky's "Character" be in mind, this is a man who ordered the murder of children for their parents connection to a criminal regime.  (When you exterminate a line, you're basically ordering the murder of everyone from infant on upward), and this is a man who had a reasonable expectation that said order would be followed, but not so reasonable he wouldn't have mechanisms in place to assure that outcome.  A similar extent of effort COULD have been used to find a Cameron heir, however there's no evidence he did more than a cursory look, suggesting he wasn't actually all that keen to restore conditions ante-bellum, but was instead intent on supplanting the prior dynasty with himself.

which he was denied by that same Star League Council-probably for his performance in the role of regent prior to the Amaris coup-or lack of performance, to be more precise, but there's more here, because he couldn't (apparently) hold and keep the trust of the Hegemony's citizens (something that suggests his angelic reputation is rather exaggerated.)

Given his demonstrated charisma (Nobody could get the kind of approval ratings that would get 80% or more of the military to join them in exile without LOTS of Charisma.) this suggests he may have 'tried' but he didn't try real hard to restore the infrastructure and order to the Terran Hegemony once he occupied it.   Perhaps because he was busy preparing to desert and abandon them once it became clear that he wasn't going to be offered the throne.


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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #114 on: 24 July 2019, 22:59:38 »
What existing government?

The TH government was RWR lackeys, and the few existing planetary governments that remained  functional were mote worried about local issues then in cooperating with their neighbours.

All the local governments. RWR obviously took all the high ranking positions and many others but many positions were still held by Hegemony citizens. Most of them were seen as collaborators and killed. That didn't leave any one with enough experience to take over.




Talen5000

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #115 on: 25 July 2019, 08:48:45 »
All the local governments. RWR obviously took all the high ranking positions and many others but many positions were still held by Hegemony citizens. Most of them were seen as collaborators and killed. That didn't leave any one with enough experience to take over.

The exist local governments often either didn't exist...a lot went with RWR troops or were killed by them...or were focussed on getting their own worlds reconstructed. Out of the hundred or so worlds in the TH only a handful were capable of trying to create some semblance of interstellar government, and many of those were essentially local warlords.

Any worlds that were sufficiently rebuilt also became prime targets for annexation and it appears many of their governments agreed to this while the small number of holdouts were targetted and largely nuked out of existence once the war started.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #116 on: 25 July 2019, 16:14:07 »
just a moment to clarify here, but was Kerensky legally the CG of the Star League Defense Force when he initiated Exodus?  We know he was stripped of Protectorship <snip> Further, the Star League's bureaucracy was damaged but it wasn't rendered non-functional by the dissolution of the council.

The "Protector" title is not connected to his rank or position as CG of the SLDF, and the High Council merely asked to him to resign. He does not appear to have resigned and they do not appear to have demoted him.

The High Council put the Star League's Department of Communications in charge of the Hegemony's reconstruction. This would only happen if the normal bureaucracy were non-functional.

Quote
as for Kerensky's "Character" be in mind, this is a man who ordered the murder of children for their parents connection to a criminal regime.  (When you exterminate a line, you're basically ordering the murder of everyone from infant on upward), and this is a man who had a reasonable expectation that said order would be followed, but not so reasonable he wouldn't have mechanisms in place to assure that outcome.  A similar extent of effort COULD have been used to find a Cameron heir, however there's no evidence he did more than a cursory look

He had planned to do fair and individual trials, but then he unsealed the Throne Room, and the story reverts to standard medieval political tropes.

The SLSB doesn't cover the reconstruction in enough detail to say how hard he did or did not look for Camerons. Why do you suggest that he looked hard for Amarises? The ones he executed were all already on hand.

Quote
which he was denied by that same Star League Council-probably for his performance in the role of regent prior to the Amaris coup-or lack of performance, to be more precise, but there's more here, because he couldn't (apparently) hold and keep the trust of the Hegemony's citizens (something that suggests his angelic reputation is rather exaggerated.)

The Lords named him Richard's regent because he had the trust of the Hegemony's citizens and they could schedule their meetings so he couldn't actually attend. Why would the House Lords want someone competent and popular in a position to stop their power grabs? What makes you say he couldn't keep the citizens' trust?
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Daryk

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #117 on: 25 July 2019, 17:35:55 »
*snip*
He had planned to do fair and individual trials, but then he unsealed the Throne Room, and the story reverts to standard medieval political tropes.
*snip*
I believe his exact words were: "There'll be no sympathy for the devil."

I have no idea why that sticks in my memory, but it does.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #118 on: 26 July 2019, 22:24:58 »
The exist local governments often either didn't exist...a lot went with RWR troops or were killed by them...or were focussed on getting their own worlds reconstructed. Out of the hundred or so worlds in the TH only a handful were capable of trying to create some semblance of interstellar government, and many of those were essentially local warlords.

Any worlds that were sufficiently rebuilt also became prime targets for annexation and it appears many of their governments agreed to this while the small number of holdouts were targetted and largely nuked out of existence once the war started.

Many government personnel were killed by hegemony citizens because they cooperated with the RWR and were seen as sympathisers. Wether they cooperated willingly or not didn't matter. They cooperated so they were killed. Thus no government.

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Re: Kerensky...
« Reply #119 on: 26 July 2019, 22:44:24 »
as for Kerensky's "Character" be in mind, this is a man who ordered the murder of children for their parents connection to a criminal regime.

So has every House Lord who's ever put down a rebellious noble. That's how it works, if you're going to use feudalism as your form of government. And frankly, this is also a modern norm and a piece of the character of countless people who are considered heroic by the masses.


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