I'm curious about an Alpha Strike matchup. How do people figure the Mad Cat Mk. IV A stacks up against the Mad Cat Mk. II Standard? They're of similar point cost, but when I play it out in 'lab conditions' (which admittedly leave out a lot of things I'd expect in regular play)... the Mk. II Standard beats the Mk. IV a significant amount of the time. Perhaps I'm missing something from more practical play that explains why they're considered roughly equal?
More specifically, with a total of 12 A/S the Mad Cat Mk II (Standard) is going to be able to destroy the Mk IV A in two hits. That could be one hit at long range as they're closing (best case) and one hit at medium, or just two hits outright at medium range. The reverse is not true: the Mk IV A takes a minimum turns-to-kill of three to take down a Mk II with a 4 damage long range and 5 damage medium range.
If the Mk IV A keeps the range open, the TTK for the Mk II makes the significant leap to three hits, at a reduced rate thanks to the long range modifier. Since the Mk IV A has the higher speed, it can (presumably) influence the range enough to ensure this happens. The Mk IV A has a TTK against the Mk II of four turns if it stays purely at long range. Obviously that's a losing fight, but if the Mk IV A manages to score two hits at long range, suddenly the medium range shot threatens a kill. While this is true of the Mk II as well, that makes the average TTK of both 'Mechs three hits if the Mk IV A utilizes its speed well - which is exactly the kind of parity you'd expect from a pair of 'Mechs so similar in PV.
In terms of actual numbers, and assuming a relatively sparse table environment where lines of sight can be kept open, that ends up being (at Skill 4, mind you):
Mad Cat Mk II (Standard): 16.7% chance to hit at Long range, 41.7% chance to hit at Medium range. Average time-to-kill at Long range is 18 turns (1/6th chance, needs three hits), at Medium range is 5 turns.
Mad Cat Mk IV A: 27.7% chance to hit at Long range, 58.3% chance to hit at Medium range. Average time-to-kill at Long range is 15 turns (slightly beats the Mk II, but well within likely variance), at Medium range is 6 turns, and the reduced variance from the more likely shots means there's less of an (overall) chance that the Mk IV A gets lucky and gets there before the Mk II.
Looking at the change from Long to Medium range, though, is where things get interesting. It takes an average of 6 turns for the Mk II to score a hit, which puts the Mk IV A into the lethal-threat range at Medium. It takes a Mad Cat Mk IV A approximately 4 turns to hit the Mk II once, and 8 turns to hit it twice. The Mk IV A can
probably land that second hit well before it's in danger of being outright destroyed by the Mk II. It'll take three shots at that range, so there's even a measure of cushion, and the odds that a Mk IV A can hit the Mk II twice before it's been hit once are not-insubstantial. Once that happens, the TTK for both is (presumably) one-hit at Medium range, but the Mk IV A has the ~16% advantage in hit numbers at that range, and is more likely to win.
Though it's my understanding that maintaining Long range is pretty hard to do, and really drags games out in the occasions you do manage it?
Playing against myself has been a poor way of testing how practical this really is, since I know what I'm going to do.
The ultimate answer, of course, is "bring supporting units", but a faster unit should be able to reliably kite a slower unit around a typical board with relative impunity, especially with initiative.
