What if Simulation:IS backed taurians vs Clan Invasion era Smoke Jaguars.

[Izzy193]

This is a Scenario where Inner sphere backed taurians are pitted against clan invasion era Smoke Jaguars. This however is considered a simulated wargaming exercise in universe. with Simulated Smoke Jaugars acting as OP-for for the campaign. More to see how the taurian forces would fare against the clans in their current state. The Real question is if the fight was actually real who would get angrier?

The Smoke Jaguars or the Taurians?

[Takiro]

Smoke Jaguars. They can project their military forces so much better than the Taurians. Armed with 3025 tech they are no match for Clan tech in conventional BattleTech. So, then the gloves come off and the Concordat goes nuclear. The Clans may even suspect such a reaction from their historical SLDF files but when such an incident happens the Bull just can't keep up because of the Jag Navy. Jumpships are ceased and destroyed followed by any Taurian spacecraft in what would quickly become a Trial of Annihilation for any who resist. Escalation in the form of orbital bombardment (see Edo) would level most of the Concordat's ground-based civilization so yes while the Taurians would be willing I just think they'd be unable to keep up in this escalatory conflict. Any who can't flee would be forced to surrender or be wiped out and this whole episode could harden the Clans in their conquest of the InnerSphere which is a dangerous thing.

[pokefan548]

If the Taurians have to act aggressively, the Jags take it for sure. The Concordat's strength lies in its defensive game.

If the Jags had to invade through the Concordat itself (so, if the invasion corridors came through the rimward IS) the Jag's would have died super hard. In conventional warfare, the Jags would just keep getting trapped in minefields, ambushes, suicide bombings, etc.—and with the Calderons still in charge at this point most citizens are still willing to die for the Concordat, making occupation a difficult endeavor.

If the Jags resort to a nuke (as they did up coreward), then they're in for quite the reckoning. The Concordat has a larger nuclear arsenal than most successor states, and once the potential for WMD warfare is put on the board even once they will never hesitate to deploy their own nukes against the Jags again. Assuming the Jags survive the push through the Concordat, they'll have to deal with people citing that one nuke from the initial invasion as reason to occasionally nuke the Jags for the next century at least.

Either way, it would probably come to a draw or a narrow Jag victory if the Concordat was on its own, but if the rest of the IS is dump-trucking support onto them I'd say defensively it's a win for the Concordat.

[Colt Ward]

Jags defeat conventional Taurian forces, get bled white in the occupation . . . expect plenty of Turtle Bays.

[tassa_kay]

If the Jags resort to a nuke (as they did up coreward), then they're in for quite the reckoning. The Concordat has a larger nuclear arsenal than most successor states, and once the potential for WMD warfare is put on the board even once they will never hesitate to deploy their own nukes against the Jags again. Assuming the Jags survive the push through the Concordat, they'll have to deal with people citing that one nuke from the initial invasion as reason to occasionally nuke the Jags for the next century at least.

1) The Jaguars never dropped nukes on anyone in canon. They did use orbital bombardment at Turtle Bay, but that's not the same thing.

2) The second the Taurians launch nukes, it's game over for them. The Periphery realms are already scum in Clanner eyes (the Clans blame them for the fall of the Star League), and this would allow the Jaguars to take the gloves off and use their WarShip fleet to pound the Concordat back into the Stone Age, and the other Clans would probably cheer them on for it. 

[Baldur Mekorig]

Mutual annihilation basically.

[tassa_kay]

Mutual annihilation basically.

I very much doubt it would be a mutual thing. The Taurians wouldn't be as much of a speed bump that the FRR was, but a speed bump they would still be. Without external support, the Taurians would be ground into dust by the Jaguars if they decided to bust out the nukes. Without nukes coming into play, I'd still bet against the Taurians in this scenario.

[DragonKhan55]

I very much doubt it would be a mutual thing. The Taurians wouldn't be as much of a speed bump that the FRR was, but a speed bump they would still be. Without external support, the Taurians would be ground into dust by the Jaguars if they decided to bust out the nukes. Without nukes coming into play, I'd still bet against the Taurians in this scenario.

Agreed. Just because the Concordat has plenty of nukes, does not imply they have plenty of spaceborne delivery systems. This is not CS's Kowloon Ngos. Jaguars would have a massive advantage in space and could just use orbital fire on everything that looks like a target. Trials of Annihilation do not require that a force set down on a planet with known WMDs when NPPCs and NLs can just play Exterminatus.

[lrose]

The one thing to remember is that the TC was not against destroying jumpships- specifically they destroyed one in 3042 when it misjumped into the Landmark system.  If the TC targeted the clan jumpships (and warships) they would cripple the invasion force.  Sure they would get beat badly on the ground but if the clanners can't move their troops ( they only have a limited number of jumpships and replacements are a year away in the homeworlds) they aren't going to succeed.  I suspect that there would be a lot of Tyra Miraborgs in the TDF- more then willing to sacrifice themselves to take out the invaders (and even more willing once they learn these are the descendants of the SLDF). 

In the end it would be bloody on both sides.  The Jag fleet would be shambles, but most of the Concordat would be leveled by orbital fire.

[Kerfuffin(925)]

The one thing to remember is that the TC was not against destroying jumpships- specifically they destroyed one in 3042 when it misjumped into the Landmark system.  If the TC targeted the clan jumpships (and warships) they would cripple the invasion force.  Sure they would get beat badly on the ground but if the clanners can't move their troops ( they only have a limited number of jumpships and replacements are a year away in the homeworlds) they aren't going to succeed.  I suspect that there would be a lot of Tyra Miraborgs in the TDF- more then willing to sacrifice themselves to take out the invaders (and even more willing once they learn these are the descendants of the SLDF). 

In the end it would be bloody on both sides.  The Jag fleet would be shambles, but most of the Concordat would be leveled by orbital fire.

The clans initially had their warships as escorts, and once the found the IS more or less unable and unwilling to take naval actions they became command posts. Once they started with that, the warships would stay in play and they’d have a hard time getting close after the first couple and a pattern appears

[BrianDavion]

I think the Taurian nuclear threat is a little over rated. we saw how "amazingly effective" it was during the Jihad. so let's not kid ourselves on the matter. the Jags pound the Taurians flat

[Liam's Ghost]

There's a lot that isn't clear in this situation, such as rules of engagement for either side, and what constitutes victory.

If it is a simple question of the full force of the Smoke Jaguars against the full force of the Taurian Concordat, then the Smoke Jaguars will win the conventional war, as they have a poorly defined but substantial fleet of WarShips and a very large fleet of jumpships, dropships, and fighters to impose space control and the Taurians... do not.

Even if the TDF resorts to nuclear weapons, they don't have enough platforms capable of carrying those weapons to have much luck breaking through a Jaguar fleet screen. At best, the TDF could expect a couple of surprise victories before the Jaguars adjust to the tactics and leverage their obvious superiority.

(and since the TDF can't crack clan naval superiority, any use of nuclear weapons represents a potential Amos Furlough situation, where they Jaguars can hammer a planet with impunity for as long as they desire before actually committing troops on the ground)

If we're seeing something closer to the clan invasion, where WarShips aren't being actively committed to the battle, then the Taurians have more room to move troops and will probably give a better account of themselves. Maybe even win a victory or two. But a Taurian conventional victory is still not likely.

After the victory, though, the Jaguars have neither the troops to adequately suppress resistance in the entire Concordat, nor the temperament or ideology for the sort of hearts and minds campaign to make that resistance stop. The conflict on the Taurian worlds will literally never end.

[Pondering Radish]

A Taurian player I wish I could root for the Concordat, but not having WarShips makes this at best a grinding campaign that ultimately ends with the Concordat "conquered". However, I can't see the Smoke Jaguars having the patience to actually properly occupy the Concordat and conduct a hearts and minds campaign. So you get Clanners who venerate the SLDF, and hate the Periphery on one hand. On the other you have a Periphery nation that's reenacting the Reunification Wars against a faction that's even less kind than the Star League. Escalation is going to be the name of the game.

The real question here is how long does it take it take the Smoke Jaguars to escalate to atrocities in response to a determined guerilla and terrorist campaign from the Concordat, and how long it takes the IS to get sick of hearing about it.

[pokefan548]

I think the Taurian nuclear threat is a little over rated. we saw how "amazingly effective" it was during the Jihad. so let's not kid ourselves on the matter. the Jags pound the Taurians flat

To be fair, that was them invading. The Taurians have always been a bit shoddy on offense. Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, the Concordat was going through severe domestic problems thanks to the Word of Blake pulling their infrastructural support to focus on their own problems; combined with the fact that the conflict itself didn't have a wealth of popular support, I think even the best regiments from across the Inner Sphere's history couldn't have won that conflict.

tl;dr, that conflict was lost mostly due to being a poorly-planned invasion—already not the Concordat's strong suit—with severe domestic and logistical issues that make real strategic victories impossible.

[DOC_Agren]

TC on "defense" is going to bleed the Smoked Kitty badly.  Remember they were planning on a massive invasion from FS/FC or even the CC to happen any day now.
Then when the Smoked Kitty does take the TC, the unclan like way they continue to exist unless the rest of the clans stop it like they did in canon.  Turtle Bay reactions will far more, which will lead to far more "not playing by the clan rules" so the local are BAD PLAYERS.

Now the Smoked Kitty who make it though the TC will not be in any shape to take on the FS/FC forces..  They will be stalled

[DragonKhan55]

TC on "defense" is going to bleed the Smoked Kitty badly.  Remember they were planning on a massive invasion from FS/FC or even the CC to happen any day now.
Then when the Smoked Kitty does take the TC, the unclan like way they continue to exist unless the rest of the clans stop it like they did in canon.  Turtle Bay reactions will far more, which will lead to far more "not playing by the clan rules" so the local are BAD PLAYERS.

Now the Smoked Kitty who make it though the TC will not be in any shape to take on the FS/FC forces..  They will be stalled

That really depends on what kind of campaign the Smoked Kitties are waging. Conquest a la Draconis Combine offensive? Then yeah they will bleed and bleed for every inch of ground taken from the Taurians. But if the Jaguars just decide to call it a Trial of Annihilation, declare the entire Concordat dezgra and use their Warships to play Exterminatus against every world without bothering to land, then I don't see the Taurians as having REMOTELY enough aerospace and spaceborne assets to fend off the Jaguars. They may have a ton of nukes laying around, but the Taurians are still short on actual aerospace fighters and warhead delivery platforms.

[tassa_kay]

That really depends on what kind of campaign the Smoked Kitties are waging. Conquest a la Draconis Combine offensive? Then yeah they will bleed and bleed for every inch of ground taken from the Taurians. But if the Jaguars just decide to call it a Trial of Annihilation, declare the entire Concordat dezgra and use their Warships to play Exterminatus against every world without bothering to land, then I don't see the Taurians as having REMOTELY enough aerospace and spaceborne assets to fend off the Jaguars. They may have a ton of nukes laying around, but the Taurians are still short on actual aerospace fighters and warhead delivery platforms.

That's how I see it, too. The Clans had even less love for the Periphery than they do the Great Houses, because they see the Periphery as being responsible for the fall of the Star League. If the Taurians start tossing nukes on top of that, it's a wrap for them.

[DOC_Agren]

That really depends on what kind of campaign the Smoked Kitties are waging. Conquest a la Draconis Combine offensive? Then yeah they will bleed and bleed for every inch of ground taken from the Taurians. But if the Jaguars just decide to call it a Trial of Annihilation, declare the entire Concordat dezgra and use their Warships to play Exterminatus against every world without bothering to land, then I don't see the Taurians as having REMOTELY enough aerospace and spaceborne assets to fend off the Jaguars. They may have a ton of nukes laying around, but the Taurians are still short on actual aerospace fighters and warhead delivery platforms.

That is the true question.
also would the rest of the Clan's allow them to "go old School Star League" on the TC?  Because they can not win on the ground.

Especial when the Wolf and Falcon are not having these same issue coming up from the MoC into the FWL.
And when the reports get out that the Clans are full on Genocial SOB, how does the the rest of the IS react.  The Lyrans who seem to have a some good "relations" with The TC.

[Pondering Radish]

I am interested in how the Special Asteroid Support Force matches up to Clan Smoke Jaguar when it comes time to try to breach Flannagan’s Nebula. While I think the Smoke Jaguars can brute force through, I expect that in doing so the SASF would reap a nasty toll on them, especially if the Taurian handed out nuclear party favors to the service members.

[Liam's Ghost]

Offensively, the SASF unfortunately faces the same problems as the rest of the Taurian fleet units. Their gunboats have to get close enough to the Smoke Jaguar dropship fleets to launch their nuclear payload.

And it's a very spread out force. So we're looking at numerous attacks consisting of one or two Tigress and Tigress like gunboats, and/or one massive attack by the entire SASF as the invasion force approaches its target. There's not really time or resources for anything else.

Based on canon information, we could expect the TDF/SASF to have access to Alamo-type warheads that can be delivered by gunboat, and some sort of higher yield warhead used to deflect asteroids, with an unknown delivery vehicle. Either way, you can't really expect a Tigress to carry more than two weapons.

(please note there isn't a lot of detailed information on the SASF or the TDF's planetary defenses, and even the information we have is post-clan invasion data. There is technically wiggle room in these assessments as a result, but anything beyond what is canonically known is pure speculation. The Taurians' capabilities could be better, but they could also be worse)

Numerous smaller attacks would have to depend on fast passes, which at least guarantee the gunboats would be able to launch (as they would be moving too fast to be killed before reaching launch range), and if they angle them correctly, any survivors could probably make it to the planet to join the defense.

The downside is that the gunboats are going to be subjected to fire as they pass, and if there's only a small number of gunboats attacking a properly laid out formation of dropships (and warships if the warships are on escort duty), they aren't likely to survive. Also, even if we assume the nukes they are carrying are high yield enough to take out a ship with a single hit (not a guarantee), they still have to actually hit the ship. Also not a guarantee.

So the harassing attacks may or may not cause attrition to the invaders, but will definitely inflict attrition to the SASF attempting them. Mostly because gunboat carried nukes don't have standoff capability like bearing only fire. It's a risky strategy, that might be trading platforms you can't afford to lose for platforms the Jaguars can, even if the ships you kill are individually bigger and more impressive than the gunboats you lose.

The final massed attack over the target world has better chance of succeeding. Massed together, the SASF might be able to muster a couple/few hundred gunboats (very rough estimate), plus any fighters the local defenses can bring to bear, plus tactical nuclear weapons. Assuming a single Jaguar galaxy is committed to the assault, they might face around two hundred clan fighters, plus the dropship transports, plus any warship escort and their fighters. That could be a fight the SASF could win.

But that's assuming one assault against one of the Taurian homeworlds, where the entirety of the SASF is brought to bear. A grand Luthien style final assault where the bulk of the Jaguars are committed isn't one the SASF is or even could be equipped to repel. And even in the more restrained case, the SASF would likely be so badly depleted that they couldn't hold up against a second such attack.

Honestly, the best thing the Taurians could hope for is that the Smoke Jaguars attempt to emulate the SLDF and try clearing out each asteroid base one by one. In that case, the Jaguars would probably still come out on top, but they'd be trading a lot of elementals fighting SASF marines while the Taurian gunboats withdraw. Ultimately, the Taurians have other bases their gunboats can operate from, and the Jaguars are going to need those elementals for the occupation to come.

[BrianDavion]

The issue with the Taurians vaunted orbital defences etc is that they've NEVER been tested. So we have no clue how useful they'd be in actuality, in fact... I'm going to say the answer is "seemingly not very" if the fighting Urukhai's attack on Taurus was anything to go by. a single rogue merc regiment managing to make planet fall and go about wrecking havoc on the world. So I tend to discount those defences as actually being useful

[Liam's Ghost]

The SASF is hideously spread out across a vast area. Against a surprise attack close to the target it's unlikely they'd be able to muster more than a minimal force to respond. Maybe none if the attackers happen to be in an inconvenient position.

Even the scenario I postulated assumes that the TDF knows what the target is in advance and has time to prepare.

When it comes right down to it, the Concordat simply doesn't have the resources or ships to act like it's the Reunification War anymore.

[DOC_Agren]

To be honest the more I have thought about it...
The TC until you get near the FS/CC border region will be much like the early battles on other side of the sphere.   Because these newer colony post 3025 when they appear on maps will not have a major defense forces mostly planetary militia who the Smoked Kitties will walk though without an issue.
It is the '25 mapped planets that will start putting up a defense against the Smoked Kitties, as they have been being prepared for that grand invasion from the FS.  Tech does not favor the TC, but prepared defenders will require the Smoked Kitties either admit their forces can't crack them with the minium bid or they declare the Concordat as a whole dezgra because they won't play by the "Clan Rules".
It will take time, but if the Clans are allowed to go full on General Forlough vrs the Periphery States..  when they hit the FWL, CC, FS there will be prepared defenses..  And here the biggest change..  COMSTAR will be openning working against the Clans serving as the "White Knights" to protect us from these monsters. 

[Terminax]

The TC, roughly speaking is comparable to the FRR. Probably has slightly more conventional forces but with much less overall population and worlds.

A whole, undamaged CSJ would likely be able to take the TC with moderate to heavy casualties in four "waves". The famed Taurian resistance is probably a bit overblown considering the Smoke Jaguars occupied better defended and much more populated worlds. They only bounced where trickery and numbers hit back. A long term insurgency similar to the Tanite resistance is most likely but without outside support, likely to largely be only an irritant. Unlike the Cloud Cobras, the Smoke Jaguars won't use half measures in suppressing their new population.