Raven Alliance: A Chance To Begin Again...

[Easy]

Meanwhile, in the Outworlds Alliance, messy bunks.

I might propose a new agenda for the OA and the Snow Ravens.

Even to suggest that there may be no less a motivation to expand, on the part of this House and Clan Alliance, than any other major power. What there may seem to be a dearth of, when detailing the power struggles of the Inner Sphere and attached powers, is the human drive to explore and expand, to decide that, today, new resources may yet still be found OUT THERE, rather than assuming they must always be found IN HERE.

In previous evolutions, we've had the ComStar Explorer Corps, we've had Interstellar Expeditions, we've had the Interstellar Players, etc. In this evolution, we've seen, so far, much less of that, as all eyes turn to Terra and the outcome of ilClan.

It's quite possible, that, for the /good/ of the Outworlds Alliance, the very best thing may be to simply /let them be/, that, given the strategic space to breathe free, their economic and educational problems will find resolution.

But this is BattleTech, and the OA has priors. Ergo, I might evidence the temerity to suggest that this is, actually, a rare opportunity to take an established faction and turn it OUTWARD, SPINWARD and do what is the most obvious, but least documented activity in BattleTech, but establish  new colonies, something that has not been attempted on a significant scale since the Golden Age of the Star League.

And, perhaps, in some humble way, also lay some meagre claim to, also, being counted among it's true heirs.

[jimdigris]

There were a bunch of colonies beyond the current borders.  Everyone forgot that they existed.

[Easy]

As an illustration, let's compare maps of the Outwords Alliance 2765, and the Raven Alliance 3145.


2765


3145

It is clearly the case, that, like every other Great House and Periphery power, today's Raven Alliance has suffered the same catastrophic economic contraction that has afflicted all the rest. An Inner Sphere wide economic and social collapse that began at the end of the First Star League and has never stopped, but only slowed and paused in certain eras.

It might be a mistake to conflate with the progress of technological development of arms, which has waxed and waned over the centuries, such that we have arms today that, by far, outstrip the Golden Age of the Star League in quality, but rarely, if ever, in quantity. Likewise, in terms of raw destructive power, the Golden Age remains unchallenged, as even the most sophisticated advancements in the arms, composition and electronic warfare features of individual units stand in the very large shadow of the sheer number of Capitol-class weapons carried by the massive fleets of the 28th Century.

So, on the strictly technological scale, perhaps the economies of 3145 have done it better, here and there, but on the strategic scale, it has been an arrow pointing downward the whole time.

As the maps indicate, and as is reproducible in kind in every quadrant of known space, the total number of inhabited worlds has been on the decline, with few to no new colonies, except for, perhaps, a few far flung Deep Periphery nation-states that, by ones and twos, are slowly adding worlds to their numbers.

I can think of no more appropriate case for the Raven Alliance than spinward expansion. Fully two-thirds the number of worlds of the 2765 Alliance are still out there, and even if abandoned, make excellent candidates for repopulation and repatriation.

It must surely be the case that most of these worlds have been picked clean of salvagable technology over the centuries by nomads, brigands, pirates and the lot. As surely, there are pirates and warlords out there, unknown to us, and not eager for the discovery and eviction, or elimination.

It may also be the case that there is no major or minor power that is better positioned for such an epic purpose than the Raven Alliance. They have the fleets, the experience and the populations of citizens for whom the prospect of economic expansion is readily accessible, and timing so appropriate.

It maybe noted that, again, while items of high technology and many or most of the capital assets might be now absent from these worlds, the great earthworks, difficult survey work and stellar cartography that represents such large investments of time are already done. The records are there, or may be found, of where to mine, where to farm, where to build, and what to wear.

The Ravens may have access to, or might acquire by Trial, or by trade with the ubiquitous Sea Foxes, those colonization and re-colonization technologies of the Star League that the Houses of the Outworlds Alliance may, indeed, have lost. For what purpose would knowledge of how to efficiently establish a colony, or re-occupy an abandoned one, would the Clans purge such information from the data cores? What dishonor could there be for a Clan to possess the know how, even if their extant destiny point them to something, or somewhere else?

The fleets of the 3145 Inner Sphere are barely shadows of themselves. Neither the Federated Suns, nor the Draconis Combine could afford many patrols to the spinward side of the Raven Alliance, and what other fleets may exist that could accomplish the trade and transport, out there in the Big Dark, away from prying eyes?

Thus, I contend, that the future of the Raven Alliance is SPINWARD, ever SPINWARD.

[jimdigris]

It's not clear to me that the Alliance has the population numbers for a new colonization effort. The Outworlds were always lightly inhabited and the Ravens had to leave behind a good chunk of their population. There is plenty of room for expansion on the worlds they already have.

[Easy]

It's not clear to me that the Alliance has the population numbers for a new colonization effort. The Outworlds were always lightly inhabited and the Ravens had to leave behind a good chunk of their population. There is plenty of room for expansion on the worlds they already have.

A worthy rebuttal.

How might we quantify it? Let's engage in a thought exercise.

First, lets consider again the 2765 and 3145 maps I've offered (thanks MekHQ).

Now, let's consider a goal. For the purpose of the exercise, treat every world of the 2765 map as a light on a board. Some lights are on, some are off. The goal is to turn as many lights that are now off, to on, in as time, resource and population efficient way as possible from a set of starting conditions.

Let's posit some current population numbers of available colonists, who can be recruited, induced, or even, with compliant Snow Raven freebirth cadres, ordered onto the DropShips. The prospect of coercing unwilling OA citizenry for whom the Snow Raven caste system is poorly tolerated might be a more difficult recruiting job, but as many might be willing to undertake the risk for the reward of land and title. Call this number P1, for instance.

Now, let's posit another number. This is the number of permanent residents required on a world before we can set it's light to ON, on our map. Call this number P2, for example.

Two more numbers to consider. The minimum number of JumpShip visits per month or year required to keep a light ON after it has been turned ON. This might be something of a variable. We can call it J1, assuming the required DropShips will also be available. J2, then, is the total number of JumpShips that can be given to the task.

We start with total available population and JumpShips, we determine what are the minimum residents to turn a light on, and what are the minimum number of JumpShip visits to keep it on.

There are tables in the system generation sections of one of the Operations books that give some round figures about minimum population numbers for a world. These might be fair numbers to assume, but might not tell the whole story, for there have been a number of ComStar listed worlds that are considered ON, in terms of the thought experiment, but don't actually represent an appreciable population, but rather some strategic significance. In addition, they might also presume previously untouched worlds, and do not account for how you might modify for a world that had been previously occupied.

For the purposes of the Ravens maintaining fleet logistics and a respectable defensive posture, we could include a few of those.

In fact, it might only take a few hundred, or a few thousand colonists to turn a light back ON, and, perhaps, not so many JumpShip visits a year to keep it going. Particularly, if that world was chosen for how quickly it could export something of value. This, of course, is where possession of good survey data and adequate reconnaissance would be critical.

Then, once the thing is underway, would it not attract more numbers? It would be wise, of course, to not create too much of a hype machine, that Kuritan and Davion interests would not become alarmed at the number of their citizens defecting to the Raven Alliance Abandoned World Land Rush.

I'll just say, here, that filling a world to capacity, or a need for more available land on an already inhabited world isn't quite the point. It's what's available on that land that matters, and perhaps also there might be some value to prospective colonists to set up governments and land apportionment that gives themselves, their families, and their progeny, a future income and title far and away greater than the opportunities of where they might currently be.

[Easy]

Also, if I might be permitted an additional observation:

The Snow Raven wastes nothing.
A scavenger par excellence,
it makes use of materials abandoned by others.
It works in harmony with other beasts
and is the perfect companion.
 
-- The Remembrance Of Clan Snow Raven




Exhibit A

Note: I don't know this is canonical Remembrance, but it is on a fansite forum linked from Sarna, and it looked good for the case.  8)

[Baldur Mekorig]

Nice maps Easy. Where did you get them? The one with Alpheratz on it looks like it have the jump radius included.

[jimdigris]

They are very nice maps. :thumbsup:
However, the more worlds you have, the more worlds you have to defend.  Spreading out your population means that you need to increase the size of the military without a significant rise in GNP to support it.

[TwinkieMonkieIIC]

They are very nice maps. :thumbsup:
However, the more worlds you have, the more worlds you have to defend.  Spreading out your population means that you need to increase the size of the military without a significant rise in GNP to support it.

Mo Worlds Mo Problems?

I got 99 Problems but a World Ain't One :))

[Easy]

They are very nice maps. :thumbsup:
However, the more worlds you have, the more worlds you have to defend.  Spreading out your population means that you need to increase the size of the military without a significant rise in GNP to support it.

(The maps are generated by the very excellent MekHQ application found here. I can't say enough good things about MekHQ, but there is a forum board here for that.)

This is another worthy point to consider. Pirate hunting is pretty much a full-time occupation to spinward and the Ravens have quite a number of resources devoted to it, including a complete Naval Star standing patrol, who, intriguingly, have recently returned from a mysterious 16-month excursion somewhere, and several high-quality AMC unit postings.

We could take a page out of the RTS game book. One thing we've learned from games like Command & Conquer, for instance, is that one of the keys to victory is to move the front forward in stages, first positioning units at tactically and strategically important locations, and then building the defensive and logistical structures to support the new front line, and then moving your main body up to the new line.

What does this mean for the RA spinward border? What you are, likely, not going to need, particularly with the highly mobile Raven forces, is much strategic depth on the spinward side. Again, owing to the strength of RA flotillas, any world subjected to a pirate attack on the spinward side will in almost every case be one of the 'front-facing' worlds, and perhaps very rarely one of the 'interior' worlds. Naturally, an exceptionally bold or daring pirate willing to try to make a statement may try a deep raid exploit, but they can try this already, if they are willing to risk the ASFs and DropShips, and moving the border outward by one or two 30ly ranks isn't going to change that situation very much at the strategic level. Also, at least in some cases, the resources gained by re-opening a particularly valuable location could cover the cost. Without some hard numbers, it's almost as simple as a narrative exercise. Maybe there is enough supporting tables in one of the Operations books to make a spreadsheet-based case, but it would largely be picking numbers out from behind our ears, right? The glass is half full, then.

Whether or not the RA is willing to live with local militia forces on the first interior 'row' of worlds, unlike a situation on the DC and FS fronts, where you want that strategic depth, may be an open question. What we might dispense with, however, is an assumption that defending against pirates requires the same commitment of forces, particularly the mass numbers,  that you need to enforce borders with sovereign states like DC and FS.

[Kovax]

Reclaiming a few of the more inhabitable and financially practical planets previously abandoned might make for a good plan.  Any large-scale venture to resettle more than a couple of worlds is likely to spread the limited financial and industrial resources and potential settlers too thinly to be effective.  In this situation, it's better to succeed in a few well-supported attempts than to try and fail at many due to lack of concentration of effort.

The long-term goal, however, should be to push the frontier BACK to where it was a couple hundred years earlier, and to repopulate any nearby worlds capable of maintaining a mostly self-sufficient presence, thus preventing other entities (DC, FS, etc.) from settling them and either locking the OA into a surrounded enclave or scattering enough non-OA planets through the region to make any kind of border defense impossible.  It also leaves little opportunity for pirates and other threats to entrench on and strike from them at will, because the only uncontrolled planets will not be capable of housing and sustaining them between raids without extensive logistical support.

With any luck, some of those previously lost worlds will still have small surviving remnants of population living in relatively primitive conditions, which would speed up resettlement efforts dramatically.  When you already have people present who understand how to survive on that world, and already know about the ecology and native biochemistry in detail, it doesn't need to be worked out by trial and error (usually a lot of the latter, at a high cost in human lives).

[Easy]

Reclaiming a few of the more inhabitable and financially practical planets previously abandoned might make for a good plan.  Any large-scale venture to resettle more than a couple of worlds is likely to spread the limited financial and industrial resources and potential settlers too thinly to be effective.  In this situation, it's better to succeed in a few well-supported attempts than to try and fail at many due to lack of concentration of effort.

The long-term goal, however, should be to push the frontier BACK to where it was a couple hundred years earlier, and to repopulate any nearby worlds capable of maintaining a mostly self-sufficient presence, thus preventing other entities (DC, FS, etc.) from settling them and either locking the OA into a surrounded enclave or scattering enough non-OA planets through the region to make any kind of border defense impossible.  It also leaves little opportunity for pirates and other threats to entrench on and strike from them at will, because the only uncontrolled planets will not be capable of housing and sustaining them between raids without extensive logistical support.

With any luck, some of those previously lost worlds will still have small surviving remnants of population living in relatively primitive conditions, which would speed up resettlement efforts dramatically.  When you already have people present who understand how to survive on that world, and already know about the ecology and native biochemistry in detail, it doesn't need to be worked out by trial and error (usually a lot of the latter, at a high cost in human lives).

A bit of intrigue to account for.

The sources I'm using, to this point, are MekHQ, which has some sidebar data for some planets, and Sarna, which often has a bit more recent info from Project:Planets. Sarna's main source for this region is 2nd Succession War.



2924

The reason why there is a bit of intrigue here is twofold. One, the most commonly recognized source for stellar cartography on the strategic level is ComStar, who made it their business to be the experts at this, even to the point of embarking on grand tours of the Periphery by their Primuses at various points in time. Two, ComStar, in 3145, is mostly gone, and most of it's assets have been acquired by Clan Sea Fox in the FWL, and a big 'who knows' elsewhere. The most motivated parties buying ComStar assets will probably be the ruling Great Houses, insofar as cartography and HPG-related assets are concerned.

The last major public survey is near the end of the 2nd Succession war, under Primus Kari Marshall. This was a time of significant change and upheaval within ComStar. Let me also note, for what it may be worth, that Primus Marshall, by the account I have, was a Word of Blake believer, which may, already, make what ComStar says publicly about things difficult to prove suspect, and perhaps in retrospect doubly so.

Further bolstering this case, that our extant data may be less-than-reliable, is that at this time, the office of the Primus was also somewhat mixed up with the House of Kurita, who may have taken a proprietary view of such data, where they had influence to affect it's disposition. Also, subsequent to the rapid changes occuring in this period, was the establishment of the ComGuards, a development that was VERY closely guarded and would not become generally known for a long, long time. Given these events, it's not unlikely that many worlds, off-the-radar, generally, and actually only really well known to ComStar at this point, might be conveniently omitted from the widely disseminated data they made available. What the House of Avellar may have known, in contravention to what ComStar was publishing, might also not been a topic they wished to discuss, considering that this is strategic data about their own 'backyard'.


Am I suggesting that there is one of the 'hidden worlds' of the Word of Blake out there. No, but I am suggesting that the data is ambiguous at best. This 2924 map may be the most up-to-date and accurate public information available to anyone. The mere fact that we have a 2924 map, surely a result of Primus Marshall's tour, may tell us that this could be just what Primus Marshall wanted us to know, and no more, with the tacit and perhaps unspoken assent, or dissent, of the Houses of Kurita and Avellar.

The upshot is, considering the points raised so far, we can begin to zero in on a sketchy list of candidate systems, almost all of which we have little to no information about other than how to get there. These are worlds for which we have coordinates and some record of previous occupation. There are worlds further out, for which we have better data, including data on resource potentials, Eigerland, for example, is known to have a very high potential in agriculture, but is, perhaps too far out to support, strategically.

Here, then, is a short list of candidate systems within 30 ly of the current soveriegn border:

Hellend, Devil's Breath and Halla were Independent worlds with an 'ON' state as of 2924. Hellend and Devil's Breath are within one jump of the main base of the Fourth Alliance Aerospace Wing at Risin. Halla is a nearest word with a 2924 'ON' state and is within Mobile HPG range of Risin. I can only speculate that some select Raven JumpShips and WarShips might carry Mobile HPGs that work.

If, instead, we want to expand the buffer around the RA capital world of Alpheratz, then we would be looking at Finse, Vistra and Halla. Finse was a listed OA-owned world before it was delisted. Finse is within one jump of Rudolpho, a major base of the Second Alliance Aerospace Wing.

As prospects, the worlds of Finse, Hellend, Vistra, Devil's Breath and Halla, would seem to fit the bill, given some of the parameters we've discussed casually. All of these systems are within one jump of current AMC bases and with the exception of Vistra, have records dating to 2924.

[Easy]

Prospective Travel Route, Survey and Reconnaisance, Rudolpho to Hellend



3145

The total route would be six jumps, if we add an additional jump to Risin at the end. The travel time without stopping is 49 days on standard recharge times, but we would add significant time to that to allow DropShips time to travel within the system. It's also possible that Northsun could be included in the survey, but we might want to hold that location as a special strategic location for the Clan Snow Raven Touman, and not part of any publically discoverable resettlement plan.

For all these worlds, the average time from zenith or nadir jump points is 9 days, with the exceptions of Finse, with a transit time of 18 days, and Northsun, with a transit time of 4 days, making it perhaps even more desirable as the location of a strategic base. The use of pirate jump points at Finse may likely be feasible given the quality of data, and likelihood that the AMC is already scouting this system as a part of the anti-pirate mission.

DropShips with scouting and survey parties, given a week or two in orbit, and on the surface, would surely give us most all the data we would need, extending the entire initial operation time of perhaps 6 months, maximum, before the first wave of colonists could be inserted and local militia companies stood up.

As for logistical support, Clan Sea Fox has a trading enclave at Ramora, perhaps 30-45 day journey to Rudolpho, allowing supplies purchased from the Sea Foxes to be delivered to Rudolpho on their high-quality and, probably, LF battery equipped CargoShips.

[Kovax]

A survey of the 5-6 indicated planets makes sense.  Trying to settle more than one or two at a time, however, would probably be biting off more than the current Alliance can chew.  As it stands, most of the OA was already heavily underpopulated, and the Ravens didn't add all that much to the total population base.  It's still probably in need of people more than additional land, and spreading the existing population out further, especially onto barely habitable planets, isn't going to do anything to speed up the growth rate.

The ideal situation would be to send the proposed survey team to determine which planet (or two) presents the best opportunity to provide some needed resource or valuable trade good, and a likelihood of successful growth into a valuable addition to the Alliance.  Forming a coherent and defensible border would be a secondary consideration.  There's not much point in dumping a bunch of settlers onto a couple of marginal worlds and then struggling to support them for the next few decades, in the hope that no new catastrophe comes along to disrupt the jumpship routes and render the places uninhabited or "lost" once again.  The original settlement of the region was primarily accidental; the second try needs to be smarter about how it expands.

[Easy]

A survey of the 5-6 indicated planets makes sense.  Trying to settle more than one or two at a time, however, would probably be biting off more than the current Alliance can chew.  As it stands, most of the OA was already heavily underpopulated, and the Ravens didn't add all that much to the total population base.  It's still probably in need of people more than additional land, and spreading the existing population out further, especially onto barely habitable planets, isn't going to do anything to speed up the growth rate.

The ideal situation would be to send the proposed survey team to determine which planet (or two) presents the best opportunity to provide some needed resource or valuable trade good, and a likelihood of successful growth into a valuable addition to the Alliance.  Forming a coherent and defensible border would be a secondary consideration.  There's not much point in dumping a bunch of settlers onto a couple of marginal worlds and then struggling to support them for the next few decades, in the hope that no new catastrophe comes along to disrupt the jumpship routes and render the places uninhabited or "lost" once again.  The original settlement of the region was primarily accidental; the second try needs to be smarter about how it expands.

If two planets is the limit, then Finse is one of the obvious candidates. Whatever is there, it was worth keeping Finse in the Alliance when all the others on this list were going Independent or dropping out completely.

The next phase of an operation like this would be to start listing out some personnel and assets for a formal bid and maybe even an outline for some writing. I'd kind of like to do an adventure story (with pirates).

In any case, after finishing a first reading of Shattered Fortress, it occurred to me to share this and I forgot about the main Raven Alliance thread in Clan Chatterweb here: https://bg.battletech.com/forums/index.php?topic=57379.0

[Natasha Kerensky]

It's not clear to me that the Alliance has the population numbers for a new colonization effort.

The Outworlds Alliance did not, but the Raven Alliance could.  If a Clan wants to artificially boost its population, it can decant more sibkin every 5 years while keeping the size of its military static.  All those test-downs will need someplace to go.  Might as well put them to work reclaiming lost Alliance worlds or the Wastes.

There's some handwavium involved here as the warrior caste is a small cap at the top of the Clan society pyramid, and the Ravens' numbers as a whole are probably a fraction of the Outworlds population.  But there are also no canon figures on the number of sibkin that a Clan decants per generation, so we're not stuck with any particular range of numbers, either.

And, although they might not have qualified for a Clan touman, thousands of Clan-bred and trained ex-warriors (especially the Elementals) would be a heckuva deterrent for any roaming bandits.