In 2804, Thaddeus Marik abandoned the Duchy of Oriente and it's allies to the Capallen confederation to punish Carter Allison for standing against him. In the canon, he eventually submitted.
But what if Allison didn't? Instead of submitting, within days of Marik's ultimatum, Carter entered into emergency and secret negotiations with the Confedreation to Declare neutrality, permitting Laio forces to freely transit their territory, and to back the Confederation's choice for First Lord of any future Star League.
Alternately, instead of Neutrality, the decision to abanon Oriente sufficiently enrages its population that it becomes an active allie of the CC, with Oriente militia units joining the Capallans in their attacks.
