Hi everyone,
Thanks for your advices.
A bit of precision, however:
- " The 49th Shadow Division first appeared in combat on Wallis in May 3071, disguised in Marik Commonwealth colors. They successfully setup the Commonwealth to take the blame for the destruction of the 2nd Regulan Hussars, leaving no survivors" Sarna net/Jihad Secrets: the Blake documents
- " It was on Wallis on the 22nd of May 3071 that the Second Regulan Hussars were attacked and destroyed by troops originally believed to be from the Free Worlds League Military, but who were later discovered to have been elements of the Forty-ninth Shadow Division in disguise. " Sarna net / Jihad Hotspot: 3076.
Neither of these consolidated quotes gives any indication as to how hard they fought or how much damage they inflicted upon the Forty-ninth.
- The unit was reassigned to Goth Khakar, a system along the Periphery border. This tough world allowed the Second time to regroup and recover. After rebuilding to regimental strength, they served as escorts for diplomats heading to the Niops Association as well as pirate hunters. " Sarna net / Field Manual Updates.
While they rebuilt to regimental strength, "its equipment is generally that cast off by other units, resulting in the lowest percentage of upgraded machines in any FWLM 'Mech unit." (FM:U, p158) In addition, the regiment expelled a number of warriors including their commanding officers when they declared their support for Cameron-Jones.
So it is unlikely that the 2nd Regulan Hussars went down without a fight, hence there should be quite some losses in the Blakists ranks, even if they got a lot of salvages, where did they find the manpower, and the time to train their new recruits enough so that one year later only they did strike again, against a very good if not Elite unit (the 1st Regulan Hussars) , and beat them ?
??? You do realize that they had an ongoing training program that started long before the Jihad started? The replacements assigned to the Forty-Ninth likely started their training before the unit even hit Wallis with most completing their training before the unit returned to Gibson. There was nothing to stop Apollyon from reassigning warriors originally slated for one unit to another if he felt the need.
I can't think of a single military that waits to start training replacements until a unit submits a request for replacements.
It is also unlikely they were taken by surprise as there was already a state of distrust between the Free Worlds League member states deep enough that the arrival of a Marik unit would at best be seen with suspicion, if not open hostility.
Uhm...The Sixth Lyran Guards RCT were not only on the active Clan front but were actively monitoring the Seventeenth Donegal Guards RCT and yet the Seventeenth were still able to launch a surprise attack on the Sixth. Despite having already experienced two Blakist attacks on Sian (the orbital bombardment and the first invasion) during the Jihad, the planetary defenders were still caught by surprise by the Blakists' second invasion attempt in 3074 and were on the verge of being overrun before the White Tigers turned on their allies. Both the ISF and the Masikirovka were actively monitoring the exercises performed by the AFFS and the LCAF but still were caught by surprise when they invaded the Capellan Confederation and Draconis Combine, respectively. There are many more examples of units being taken by surprise despite being aware of the potential danger.
We have no idea what state of readiness the new unit commander had them at. If he, or she, wasn't expecting an attack she could have had them at a relaxed state of readiness leaving the unit ill-prepared for an attack. After all a unit can't be constantly be kept at a heightened state of readiness before it starts to wear aware the unit's edge. The Blakists could also have sent a hit team to eliminate the Second's senior officer. With them dead or incapacitated there would have been nobody to rally the unit into a cohesive fighting force
You are assuming that 49th Division was spotted on their way in. What if they were already on the planet like the Blakist forces during the 3074 attack on Sian? Or were able to somehow evade detection like the Forty-Third MD Division on Radstadt? The Blakists had been on Wallis for more than two decades (manning the planetary HPG). How hard do you think it would have been for them to sabotage the planetary sensor grid (assuming they even needed to)?
Once also can't forget the possibility that the Blakists sent a strike team to decapitate the unit right before the attack. With the senior officers dead/incapacitated there would have been nobody to rally the unit into a cohesive fighting force.
Basically there are a myriad of possibilities of how the Forty-Ninth Shadow Division could have overwhelmed the 2nd Regulan Hussars while limiting their own casualties. There simply isn't enough information about the battle to conclusively say one way or the other. I could be right or I could be completely wrong.